Pondering War With Iran

Will Iran collapse under its own weight and no shot will be fired? Or does the US Just intensify its military maneuverings? Both are probably true.

• For Trump to go all-in, he needs a US casualty and not a manless drone shot down.
• Trump needs prominent allies publically behind him before making an Iranian incursion.    (having Great Britain, India, and Saudi Arabia say go for it all at once is needed).
• Trump needs Iran to attack anything that resonates with American citizens at home.

• Iran needs to economically hang on for another Year.
• Iran must not allow its pride to pull the war switch.
• Iran doesn't have the chops to win a war with the US but can gain style points in the world court of opinion if it loses badly to the US.

What will happen is already happening, the CIA, Israel, and others are cutting the head of the Iran snake off and then looking like a victim. Just wait, Kharg island will blow-up one day and somebody will say, "oops, it wasn't me". No Iranian oil for ten years going to Russia and an Iranian economic collapse will happen not affecting the G-20 members since Iranian oil is not in its collective play. The world has enough non-Iranian oil at this time. Sorry, China and Russia or maybe North Korea will have to scramble. No war please, just mishaps!

Does Cancelling Turkey's F-35 Mean It is Not A Turkey?

The F-35 must really work well. That is why the US has canceled the US/Turkey F-35 program. It really works and Isreal objects to Turkey owing any of its types. The S-400 Russian deal is just a subterfuge to the real deal.  Turkey must have an F-35 and the US going way out of its sales momentum for its program sold Turkey the jet, even at all! 

Now it has backed out because its NATO partners object, "you can't have the S-400 and F-35 at the same time". 

The US already has the S-400 figured out. It is a potential risk that can be mitigated by missiles and space coordination.

Turkey almost pulled a fast one over the US's need for greed from selling procurement before it knew how the F-35 would become so key to American defenses. The F-35 is a controlled military substance and Turkey in a country dealing from a street corner.

Making A 797: Solves The Max Problem

If Boeing were to announce at Paris it will go forward with the 797 and fix the Max as a stop gap measure the 797, then makes more sense. Boeing bought Embraer and is now cornering the single-aisle market from that facet. The 797 could reach back to 200 seats supplanting the 737 Max 8, 9 and 10. Then it may go transcontinental with an upscale 797 while making the last of the 737 over the next 10 years. I look to see Boeing announcing the 797 at this years Paris Airshow in light of the Airbus announcement of the A320 XLR type. Airbus will momentarily seize the show with an announcement for a long-range single-aisle but in five years?

However, a bridge-building 797 covering the apparent aviation gap with twin aisles could stymy Airbus into a rethink of its aviation tactics concerning Boeing. A 797 twin-aisle would make commuting 3,000 miles a delight over any single-aisle considerations. An Embraer 150 seat single aisle could do a yeoman's duty at the single-aisle end of the market over the next five years. Embraer could build from 75 seats to 150 seat aircraft at this time and Boeing could sweep back the Market with a twin-aisle 200-270 seat aircraft which would fly over 4,500 miles, thus nullifying Airbus offering. Boeing could convert all those 737 Max 8 orders into 797-8 orders offering twin-aisle comfort, something Boeing has lacked during this century with its 737 families of aircraft. The flow would follow a naming convention e-jets from #175 to #200 and then the Boeing 797. The Max folds into a Boeing strategy of change erasing passenger memory over the Max crashes.

The 797 could sell over 5,000 units if it stretches back into the Max saga of aircraft starting with 175 seats going upward to 270 and then beating the A321XLR in any contest on seats and distance. Boeing would regain the comfort king title once again and still remain efficient at the same time. Embraer could sell 2,000 units and Boeing would bridge aviation's gap with 7,000 aircraft combined when entering the market place over the next ten years. The question would become, Max who? That is what Boeing needs for getting past its own big feet it finds itself stumbling upon. Does Boeing have the courage to reconfigure its line of aircraft? If it doesn't show courage for change then it will die an unsightly death and leave the world pondering about Airbus.

777X Completes The 777 Promise

When the 777-300ER came out in 1994 it promised a change in aviation's quest of a perfect blend of performance and value. It delivered. Now the 777X comes with 787 attributes and 777 visions for that initial aircraft. It has folding wings made of composite material and a wider body due to thinner outside walls engineered. It will fly up to 400 or more customers going over 7,000 miles with a 15% efficiency gain. After building 1,400 plus 777's a winning hand is presented to its customers across the globe. The natural outcome would be to replace the 1,400 777's with 1,400 777X's over the next 15 years. 

There will always be the Airbus A350-1000 crowd because of deal-making and commonality considerations but the 777X is set to rule aviation's traveling customers. A quieter engine with more technological improvement because of the 787 progress, suggests the 777X will meet its promise of changing the aviation world. The 777X will be a natural replacement for the much loved A380 just from its efficiencies, but it also will have A380 like space for its passengers. A double deck becomes more of a novelty than a functioning attribute. The 777X will fold in nicely into all A380 airport expansion slots. The 500 passenger capacity of the A380 is hard to fill at this time for traveling pairs of cities. The 777X makes more sense at 400 passengers. 

Even though Boeing has sold about 356 777X's it will most insistently sell double that amount after it enters service in 2020. The engine delay from GE is a lesson learned from the 787 programs. "Make it right", is more important to a company's future than just making it fast. Boeing is showing it can wait for it through the 777X program. Even though it will not have first flight by June 26, 2019, it will fly the first time before 2020. It may make first delivery during 2020. It all depends on getting right rather than just getting it. It will sell another hundred of its type before first delivery. 

Boeing's New Strategy

Since the Max program was found severally flawed, Boeing has pivoted towards its widebody offering until an all-clear signal is sent from its single-aisle offering, which may fly once again going to the next big airshow after Paris. Boeing has pivoted towards its 787 and 777X models, which it has been working within the market place over the last six months. Expect a few surprising announcements at Paris this year from Boeing. Maybe another 20 777X or 20 787's will be offered up at the center announcing stage, but it has feinted towards featuring its innovation over sales announcements at this year's airshow. Therefore, Boeing's pivot is an attempt to seamlessly move its game over the market board by quietly ignoring the single-aisle segment at this year's Airshow. My unofficial prediction is for about $7 billion in Boeing aircraft sales. 

Stratolaunch is a metaphor for Boeing Strategy of "Big"

Airbus should crush the single-aisle segment with over 100 A320's/A321's totaling around $10 billion US. It will also add another half dozen A350's from all classes for another $2 billion in sales, totaling a show-stopping $12 billion in sales. Yes, Boeing is going to lose this year's show in total sales but will its pivot to innovation and widebody work? 

Five years out will give the hindsight analysis on this question. At which time the Max will have flown again and a new single-aisle is on the board with taller landing gears, better engine configuration, and more assembly efficiency found within its frame. 2025 writes the advent of a new "737" announcement during the same time the 797 enters service. A new Boeing single-aisle will offer congruency with the 797 progressions. If a pilot flies a "new" single-aisle it can also fly a 787 as well, with little preparation for learning its capabilities and nature.

Boeing's new strategy is doing what it does best and the 737 is under "fix" mode in the meantime. Long ago it had lined out a strategy for bracketing Airbus offering in a model by model box between the 787 and 777 models. The A350-1000 or 2000 won't approach the 777X family of aircraft and the 787-9 is a mini Jumbo filling the long and thin distance niche airlines require.  Boeing may have trapped Airbus in a development quagmire using the 777 300ER frames as the basis for the next great airplane found in the 777X. Once the GE engine is matriculated from development hell it can and will outdo anything Airbus can offer from Rolls Royce. The English engine maker has fallen ten years behind GE.

Airbus is married to Rolls out of Euro loyalties and a GE powered Boeing will dominate going forward. Rolls can only do too little with a too much goal. GE is just now refining what Rolls is dreaming about with its engine offering. Boeing's strategy has gone big again.

The Daily Turkey Roast

It is well known about Turkey's insistence on buying Russian made S-400 missiles in the face of purchasing 100 or so US made F-35's. Turkey may have biffed it for itself but it also has made itself more reliant on external sources to military equipment by adding Russia to its list of military sources than just NATO or the USA. Turkey is independent but I get that and respect its solidarity for its independence when it bought the S-400 missile system from Russia.



Let's be honest since major powers put honesty as an indefensible point of its attack for any sensible defense, huh? There is no comparison between having an S-400 or an F-35 wing in its arsenal. The F-35 wins this trade-off in spades over the S-400. The only consolation prize is the costs savings after dropping the F-35 purchase and buying a cheaper Russian missile system in its place. Turkey cannot afford "American made" military-industrial complex products. Turkey won't be buying a Virginia Class submarine either for entering the Black Sea.

Turkey is a minor league military power and should not be buying major league pieces to dot its defensive board. The US loses because it has priced itself out of the third world military axis of powers. Russia meets the Turkey market place pricing scheme. The US may not have offered Turkey enough of a subsidy for Turkey to buy an F-35 system. Therefore, Turkey went to the bargain basement and bought the S-400. The US is too expensive for the likes of Turkey even though Turkey had built a strong technology industrial source for everything tech, hence the F-35 program participation. Turkey builds 900 plus parts for the F-35. The US is rapidly switching out F-35 parts sources that are not labeled, "made in Turkey".

Turkey was a partner for the money of it and it has now chosen something it can afford but in doing so it has given up the supporting the F-35 money footprint since it will not be making F-35 technology (parts) at all or so it seems. Russian S-400 parts making would not be able to replace the loss of the F-35 program over the long run. Turkey is just being a third world poser as it should. Therefore, the US should have acted accordingly and sold turkey more F-15Xs than offering the F-35 in the first place.

Turkey will talk to Russia about buying the Russian 5th gen fighter SU-57. It will want to offer a Su-57 parts contribution to that program not unlike what it had done with the F-35 program before it bought the Russian made S-400. So a recap of the SU-57 program is needed. It is airshow worthy. About a dozen of them exists at this time. What is known about them is a typical Russian overestimated effort for its excellence. The F-35 is no Su-57 because the F-35 is technologically better. India gave up on trying to partner with Russia on the Su-57 program. There will be a Turkish Su-57 hanger for three flying copies. One will eventually crash. NATO will use this opportunity to play the US for more stuff.

Now on this side of the planet, The US has more than a Patriot missile system to offer. Even though a Patriot label represents the most advanced missile system in the world, there is something more advanced having a Patriot label glued on it. The US has had too much time on its hands since the first Patriot system was first deployed. It stands to reason the US has a trump card to play in its arsenal but it won't sell that card to anyone as it is part of its national defense policy. Don't know what it is called and the name doesn't matter at this time. The theories do abound on what the US does have but it best speculated using assumptions with a range of capability from a winged drone to a hypersonic missile with all the bells and whistles. Russia and China are working on both and brag they have it today even though they are years behind what the US has. Why this is so? Because if it isn't we are in deep do-do. 

Proven concepts are in place waiting for productions orders. Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrup have a space ready to make "rain" happen. Satellites, HARRP, and lasers are not even calculated at this time. The more you know the more Turkey becomes a third world military complex. The F-35 was too expensive for them even holding techno parts contracts that are currently producing parts with which will come to a close shortly. The US is hoping to get its Turkey production replacements in place over the next six months into the F-35 supply chain.

Concluding, the Turkey F-35 withdrawal establishes a Geopolitical change has occurred and Turkey has become US baggage as it became a casualty of power. Mediterranean food is excellent and Turkey remains a great place to visit if enough money is spent. Turkey will host itself in the shine of coinage.

A 797 will Change the Travel Culture

Carry-on luggage is the key here. The 797 is designed for customers to wheel on something in the 15 KG realm using a simple lifting effort. Gone will be the anxious wait for luggage back in the terminal luggage turnstile. The 797 overhead bins will just be large and engineered to drop into the face of a boarding passenger giving it a  convenient position. A passenger who is only 5" plus tall and 90 pounds may heft a larger carry-on than what is now allowed, while slinging the end of the bag, case or backpack, catching the edge of the bin and then sliding the carry on into its depths. Passengers already seated should just stay seated assuming its bag has already been stowed above. However, having a three day supply of stuff for a trip matches well with those conferences we all love to adore. For the small in stature, a cleverly engineered interior should be able to accommodate the vertically challenged or muscleless traveler.

A United Airlines carry on has a restriction for size is 9 X 14x 22 inches a 797 bin could go an inch higher all around the dimension metric. Maybe just enough for the third day of clothes and a laptop computer to boot. Why? The 797 will have seven seats across and more storage space than a 787 jetliner.

Current overhead bin limitation

An inch here and an inch there, then viola you make it to Friday on a Monday night departure when traveling on the company's travel budget. Just have wheels and a lifting handle on the bag and get one end to the overhead bin edge with the other on your shoulder and shove. Unloading could be controlled easily by pulling a well placed strapped handle on the bag and then the second freehand catches the bag before it konks somebody's head below. Don't overload or make it heavy that would be rude creating an obnoxious hazard for others. The carry on bin will rotate upward to the higher ceiling in a power-assisted swing controlled by the flight attendant. Isn't it grand to design the passenger space with more room to play with?

If Cebu Air (Philippines) Buys the 787 Then,

There is more than meets the eye. The 797 may be in play with a fleet renewal bid by Boeing. Cebu already has the A320 and 8 of the older A330's in its stable putting Boeing on its heels in this bid process. The 330 Neo can meet fuel efficiency goals Cebu may have but the 787 family offers more flexibility for customers through 787 8's -10's. If the 797 is in play there enough lead time for the Boeing manufacturer to slide more 787's into Cebu's growth expansion and still optimize a fleet renewal plan after 2025 with 797's replacing any A320 in a one for one basis starting in 2026 as an example.

It isn't so certain what Cebu Air will do as it ponders Airbus and Boeing proposals for its fleet. If Cebu Air goes 787 then expect follow-on orders pinning the 797 to fleet renewal and expansion. 


Cebu has this fleet:

• 32 A320's 6 years old
• 8   A321's 1 year old 
• 8 A330's    4.5 year's old, order 8 new A330's

No Boeing product in its fleet;

What could a Boeing counter do?

• 8 787 -9's/10's by 2025 with options
• 12 797's by 2030 with options

This dichotomy of Boeing orders would bend the Airbus fleet outward from Cebu Air's hangers, providing a rebuttal that does not include the 737 Max. Because the 737 Max is in limbo until regulatory agencies resolve the Max issue, the 737 Max is a nonstarter and Boeing has to approach a customer with a 797 model sooner, rather than later. At this time, timing is everything for the makers and Cebu Air has both makers by the wing struts when hoping for a slam dunk order. It looks like it's tipping in Airbus' direction for this order. Even though the A350 is too big and the A330 NEO is not as efficient as the 787 families. The breaking point for Boeing is once again, the 737 Max as a nonstarter. Watch for the Cebu Air order breakout and then analyze what it means for Boeing for a trend indicator.

Provisionally Speaking, The 777X Has A June 21 Date For First Flight

O Simple Flying has come out with some timeline points for the 777X first flight and other 777X stuff. Kudos for O Simple Flying!

The June 21, 2019 date for the first flight of the 777X is a provisional date, but Boeing should make the date. The only thing that may hold the first flight into July would be Max 737 issues that may have infected the 777X program or a 737 Max draw of Boeing resources away from the 777X program when fixing the 737.

This is a much-looked forward event and has not formed up with its media look at this time. The meeting remains open whether Boeing invites a full public blowout or it will keep the first flight of the 777X close to its vest out of fear that something may go wrong in light of the 737 Max crashes.

Those accidents or mishaps as often remarked, has changed how Boeing structures its fanfare close to those recent 737 Max incidences. I would like to see significant 737 Max progress reported, for a return to flight, coupled with the 777X first flight event.

It is what's necessary if Boeing hopes to regain some public face after these two epic fails from its new single-aisle aircraft. Confidence has been lost but confidence can be regained with the 777X first flight. 

If the 777X first flight creeps into July, then the 737 Max situation would be a strained responsibility towards requiring a later first flight date of the 777X. Boeing is hesitant towards first flight until after checking three times that it will be a success. However, the provisional date of June 21, 2019, for the first 777X flight, represents an exhaustive review of the 777X program milestones.

A June 21 first flight date tells more about Boeing from many levels, it is ready for its counter-offensive in the aviation world, the 737 Max program has returned to stability and the 777X will fly.

Boeing Max Physics DH=Momentum

When D=dick and H=head a momentum forms the decision-making paradigm which ignores common sense and thus allowing top-down decisions bypassing engineering sense but enhancing parachute performance that floats above sense equaling Boeing's single most important question Why?