- For Trump to go all-in, he needs a US casualty and not a manless drone shot down.
- Trump needs prominent allies publically behind him before making an Iranian incursion. (having Great Britain, India, and Saudi Arabia say go for it all at once is needed).
- Trump needs Iran to attack anything that resonates with American citizens at home.
- Iran needs to economically hang on for another Year.
- Iran must not allow its pride to pull the war switch.
- Iran doesn't have the chops to win a war with the US but can gain style points in the world court of opinion if it loses badly to the US.
What will happen is already happening, the CIA, Israel, and others are cutting the head of the Iran snake off and then looking like a victim. Just wait, Kharg island will blow-up one day and somebody will say, "oops, it wasn't me". No Iranian oil for ten years going to Russia and an Iranian economic collapse will happen not affecting the G-20 members since Iranian oil is not in its collective play. The world has enough non-Iranian oil at this time. Sorry, China and Russia or maybe North Korea will have to scramble. No war please, just mishaps!
No comments:
Post a Comment