If Cebu Air (Philippines) Buys the 787 Then,

There is more than meets the eye. The 797 may be in play with a fleet renewal bid by Boeing. Cebu already has the A320 and 8 of the older A330's in its stable putting Boeing on its heels in this bid process. The 330 Neo can meet fuel efficiency goals Cebu may have but the 787 family offers more flexibility for customers through 787 8's -10's. If the 797 is in play there enough lead time for the Boeing manufacturer to slide more 787's into Cebu's growth expansion and still optimize a fleet renewal plan after 2025 with 797's replacing any A320 in a one for one basis starting in 2026 as an example.

It isn't so certain what Cebu Air will do as it ponders Airbus and Boeing proposals for its fleet. If Cebu Air goes 787 then expect follow-on orders pinning the 797 to fleet renewal and expansion. 


Cebu has this fleet:

• 32 A320's 6 years old
• 8   A321's 1 year old 
• 8 A330's    4.5 year's old, order 8 new A330's

No Boeing product in its fleet;

What could a Boeing counter do?

• 8 787 -9's/10's by 2025 with options
• 12 797's by 2030 with options

This dichotomy of Boeing orders would bend the Airbus fleet outward from Cebu Air's hangers, providing a rebuttal that does not include the 737 Max. Because the 737 Max is in limbo until regulatory agencies resolve the Max issue, the 737 Max is a nonstarter and Boeing has to approach a customer with a 797 model sooner, rather than later. At this time, timing is everything for the makers and Cebu Air has both makers by the wing struts when hoping for a slam dunk order. It looks like it's tipping in Airbus' direction for this order. Even though the A350 is too big and the A330 NEO is not as efficient as the 787 families. The breaking point for Boeing is once again, the 737 Max as a nonstarter. Watch for the Cebu Air order breakout and then analyze what it means for Boeing for a trend indicator.