So many complaints and so few facts permeate the atmosphere as if the F-35 is unable to even take-off. China has better cropdusters in its J-10, J-20, J-31 family of box kites. The main complaint is its engines don't always work as expected. The Russian Su-57 can outmaneuver the F-35 in a dogfight. It is also quipped "what dogfight?" The F-35 will have long disposed of the Su-57 before it can even do airshow like maneuver, oohing and awe-ing the fairground audiences who do love watching vectoring antics going awry.
The F-35 is close to fruition, so much so, the USS Wasp took 6 F-35B's on deck during actual Pacific patrols near China. That doesn't sound like a testing mission and upgrade load to me. The test, in this case, is beyond visual range coming from North Korea or China.
The adversarial scramble is for harvesting F-35 performance data using its defensive systems. Albeit satellites monitor the region by the US and it downloads that information onto the Wasp for its F-35's. If a conflict brews it will be in the US Congress who knows as much about the F-35 as the Chinese do. All the F-35 needs is an actual conflict to prove its worth. All this posing round about this fighter. War is a horrible condition for all people, but it's nice to know if the F-35 will do the job.
Some call the F-35 junk and others a money pit. The beauty of it all no one really knows until its way too late in a battle. So far the Red Flag score is 20 to 1 in favor of the F-35. That was way last year. Having the F-35B on the USS Wasp makes the Orient a nervous boiling pot suggesting there may be truth coming out of the tests conducted by the F-35. This latest deployment is a "Damn the torpedos and full jets ahead" for the F-35B. Go ahead someone and send up a Guinea pig and see what will happen. The billions spent on it can be flushed in one golden bullet shot.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
The Boeing 797 Is No Big Technology Push, But ...?
After "Flightglobal" announces "no big technology push" for the Boeing 797, the point becomes it's not about "Moonshot" technology installed in an unknown quality/quantity; but how Boeing will shape this aircraft, and how much it will weigh, or what engines it will use?
The customers will drive the body dynamics and Boeing's design team will mold the carbon fiber aircraft for optimal customer appeal. The carbon fiber, wings, and interior appointments will also drive Boeing's design team. This makes the obvious 797 changes adhere to filling its body to a dual aisle seven-eight across seating alignment for customer appeal ranging from 230 to 270 seats. A slight oval shaped body will follow as Boeing hinted. The already established carbon fiber frame is established by the 787 families of aircraft. The "Carbon Wings" may come from Everett's wing plant. However, the engines are from the techno mystery "booth", where both CFN and GE have a dog in Boeing's 797 engine fight.
Technology will borrow from all the lesson's learned on the 787 program. Big windows, lower elevation cabin pressured (6,000 ft), and lighting cues will dominate the passenger area. The goal for Boeing is not building a wide body like the 787 nor narrow body like the 737 Max, but a Goldilocks body somewhere in between holding the desired passenger count Boeing and its customers require and will follow from the Boeing design team.
Simple math suggests the 737 equals 180 inches and the 787 equals 216 inches,
and the Middle of the Market dimension is 180"+216"= 396" 's by further factoring 396/2 = 198 inches or a 16'.5" for a Goldilock's NMA body width.
Note:
This is Winging It's AP/Math worksheet.
So the 797 could be about 16' wide with Seven across or eight across seating depending on the passenger load wanted by a Boeing customer.
A passenger law should govern airline seating for a passenger's comfort and health safety based on distance/time duration traveled and seat space provided. Thus not allowing configurations of cabins in a high-density fashion for distances traveled.
Perhaps going 5,000 miles with 270 passengers would constrain airlines to only 240 passengers and seven across seating period! It would cause a level playing field among framers for selling aircraft and stop the passenger cramming insanity.
The body width on the NMA is an oval design tweak, which has to allow a comfortable cabin while sufficiently allowing cargo options having a nominal capacity. The goal of this aircraft is about the passenger getting there in comfort and not so much as a double duty passenger and freight hauler.
The customers will drive the body dynamics and Boeing's design team will mold the carbon fiber aircraft for optimal customer appeal. The carbon fiber, wings, and interior appointments will also drive Boeing's design team. This makes the obvious 797 changes adhere to filling its body to a dual aisle seven-eight across seating alignment for customer appeal ranging from 230 to 270 seats. A slight oval shaped body will follow as Boeing hinted. The already established carbon fiber frame is established by the 787 families of aircraft. The "Carbon Wings" may come from Everett's wing plant. However, the engines are from the techno mystery "booth", where both CFN and GE have a dog in Boeing's 797 engine fight.
Technology will borrow from all the lesson's learned on the 787 program. Big windows, lower elevation cabin pressured (6,000 ft), and lighting cues will dominate the passenger area. The goal for Boeing is not building a wide body like the 787 nor narrow body like the 737 Max, but a Goldilocks body somewhere in between holding the desired passenger count Boeing and its customers require and will follow from the Boeing design team.
- The 767 model offers the biggest clue of a 15'6" (feet)wide body
- The 737 Max Body at six across is 11'7" (feet)
- The 787 Body at nine across is 18' (feet).
Simple math suggests the 737 equals 180 inches and the 787 equals 216 inches,
and the Middle of the Market dimension is 180"+216"= 396" 's by further factoring 396/2 = 198 inches or a 16'.5" for a Goldilock's NMA body width.
Note:
This is Winging It's AP/Math worksheet.
So the 797 could be about 16' wide with Seven across or eight across seating depending on the passenger load wanted by a Boeing customer.
A passenger law should govern airline seating for a passenger's comfort and health safety based on distance/time duration traveled and seat space provided. Thus not allowing configurations of cabins in a high-density fashion for distances traveled.
Perhaps going 5,000 miles with 270 passengers would constrain airlines to only 240 passengers and seven across seating period! It would cause a level playing field among framers for selling aircraft and stop the passenger cramming insanity.
The body width on the NMA is an oval design tweak, which has to allow a comfortable cabin while sufficiently allowing cargo options having a nominal capacity. The goal of this aircraft is about the passenger getting there in comfort and not so much as a double duty passenger and freight hauler.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
GE 9X Flying For the 777 9X program
This is the real deal of over 100,000 lbs thrust on a 747 GE testbed. 11' 2" opening sucks more air than a big buildings air conditioning system.
A man standing inside the front engine cowling may only stand as tall as the engine's halfway point in the opening. He would most certainly touch the top rim of the 747 standard engine pictured on the outboard wing.
Imagine the wing weight on the port side causing the 747 to tilt towards its port during its lift-off. So GE engineers had to compensate the aircraft for a level take-off. Much like, in the old days, fuel tanks had to stay in the balance of the aircraft's centerline by often switching fuel tanks stored its wings while keeping the aircraft in the balance as the fuel volume depletes. Today's fuel volume weight is balanced by computers. I imagine this GE 9X equipped 747 has starboard ballast tanks to compensate for the extra 9X engine weight on the port side. It's that big!
This test program has just completed its first flight in four hours. All went smoothly checking off the first flight test points with complete satisfaction. The 777X program has achieved a critical milestone with this success. More GE tests will continue until all checkpoints conclude the initial engine operations tests later this year. When Boeing completes its 777-9X body these GE-9X's will be mounted for ground tests late 2018 and first flight later in 2019.
Digital Trends Photo
A man standing inside the front engine cowling may only stand as tall as the engine's halfway point in the opening. He would most certainly touch the top rim of the 747 standard engine pictured on the outboard wing.
Imagine the wing weight on the port side causing the 747 to tilt towards its port during its lift-off. So GE engineers had to compensate the aircraft for a level take-off. Much like, in the old days, fuel tanks had to stay in the balance of the aircraft's centerline by often switching fuel tanks stored its wings while keeping the aircraft in the balance as the fuel volume depletes. Today's fuel volume weight is balanced by computers. I imagine this GE 9X equipped 747 has starboard ballast tanks to compensate for the extra 9X engine weight on the port side. It's that big!
This test program has just completed its first flight in four hours. All went smoothly checking off the first flight test points with complete satisfaction. The 777X program has achieved a critical milestone with this success. More GE tests will continue until all checkpoints conclude the initial engine operations tests later this year. When Boeing completes its 777-9X body these GE-9X's will be mounted for ground tests late 2018 and first flight later in 2019.
Friday, March 16, 2018
Perth To London Or Singapore To Osaka Japan
... Is a study with two different strategic projects for commercial airlines both predicated on the costs of airline fuel. The first goes 9,000 miles with 234 passengers on a 787-9 and the second carrier will go 3,00 miles with 330 passengers on a 787-10. The strategies use a combination of ticket prices and fuel efficiency for its respective bottom lines.
Boeing proposes a name your proposition with the 787-10 and Singapore Airlines proposes 49 787-10's for traversing Asia or Africa with one take-off from Singapore. If going far on a 787-9 with 234 passengers the ticket will go North of $2,000 per seat. If going near-by with 330 seats on a 787-10 the ticket price may go South of $500. Multiply those seat prices at estimated ticket value times the seats and a revenue flight will look like these results. 234 Seats x's $2,200 = $234,000 and 330 seats x's $500 seats = $165,000.
The seat mile 787-9 revenue factor would look like this: 234/9,000= .106 and the seat/mile 787-10 revenue factor would be 330/3000 = .111. As you see both have a similar revenue factors but the 787-10 to Osaka burns significantly less fuel and will gain a larger profit potential with this strategy.
Singapore Airlines has ordered 49 787-10's for its fleet. Draw a 5,000 mile circle around Singapore and see the high density city pairings found with its higher performing seat/mile machine.
Over half of Earth's population is within range of Singapore's' 787-10 fleet and that's a big number. This includes India, China and even into Africa. The 5,000 mile circle is immense and that is why Singapore bought the 787-10 in a large quantity. The 787-10 can fly another 1,500 miles than the 5,000 miles in this example. The world is watching to see what happens when Singapore launches its 787-10's, especially the middle eastern air force of Emirates, Qatar and Etihad. Why buy a 787-9 Singapore? when they could buy Boeing in ten years flying its 787-10's flying over half the world's people.
Boeing proposes a name your proposition with the 787-10 and Singapore Airlines proposes 49 787-10's for traversing Asia or Africa with one take-off from Singapore. If going far on a 787-9 with 234 passengers the ticket will go North of $2,000 per seat. If going near-by with 330 seats on a 787-10 the ticket price may go South of $500. Multiply those seat prices at estimated ticket value times the seats and a revenue flight will look like these results. 234 Seats x's $2,200 = $234,000 and 330 seats x's $500 seats = $165,000.
The seat mile 787-9 revenue factor would look like this: 234/9,000= .106 and the seat/mile 787-10 revenue factor would be 330/3000 = .111. As you see both have a similar revenue factors but the 787-10 to Osaka burns significantly less fuel and will gain a larger profit potential with this strategy.
Singapore Airlines has ordered 49 787-10's for its fleet. Draw a 5,000 mile circle around Singapore and see the high density city pairings found with its higher performing seat/mile machine.
Over half of Earth's population is within range of Singapore's' 787-10 fleet and that's a big number. This includes India, China and even into Africa. The 5,000 mile circle is immense and that is why Singapore bought the 787-10 in a large quantity. The 787-10 can fly another 1,500 miles than the 5,000 miles in this example. The world is watching to see what happens when Singapore launches its 787-10's, especially the middle eastern air force of Emirates, Qatar and Etihad. Why buy a 787-9 Singapore? when they could buy Boeing in ten years flying its 787-10's flying over half the world's people.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Boeing Post 1,300 Since September 2012 Jon Ostrower
I never thought I'd reach 1,300 posts back in 2012. Never thought I would live so long either. It’s good to see Jon Ostrower blogging again since he is my inspiration from the beginning. He held a supremely well insightful Blog on the 787, back in the heady days of announced miracles in manufacturing as Boeing stumbled its way towards its 787 Moonshot. He showed how it would come together as it happened. This blog is a feeble attempt of mimicking his own pursuit of the elusive 787 program. The inside information obtained during those days reflected Jon's own talent for piecing together this airplane. Now that the 787 program sees the financial light at the end of the tunnel, Jon has returned to his roots of blogging for I am guessing, "a little while". He has graced the Wall Street Journal with his insight and most recently CNN at it has turned its big business eye towards its own purpose and left Jon aside but as he indicated his love for aviation and big ideas is close by. The Blog Site link is Jon Ostrower.com.
Jon Ostrower
Whether he reads this tribute is not important as we are ships passing in the night sky with asymmetrical blinking from wing tips flying by each other. The important point is to follow his blog because his valued lessons learned in the aviation business transcends all continents at the head of the aviation pack. He refers to Mary Kirby at "Runway Girl" as one who supported his trajectory as he aspired in the aviation news industry. When someone has that "it" factor you know it. For this 1,300th blog, I will dedicate this simple contribution to his budding family and his care for them. I can't wait to hear from him as the 777X program unfolds and the 797 takes off. Of course, the 737 will be remade after the 797 sells another 2,000 units to happy customers. I may not be around for those events, but I am counting on Jon Ostrower to lead the way for all other dreamers who dare to dream skyward.
Boeing Orders 2018 Including February
The additions include 14-787-8F's and 4-767 for UPS. There where another 10 737's of which two where Identified as TUI Travel. It appears unidentified customer(s) converted from NG to Max for 7 frames, In total, a net of 34 airplanes are booked YTD for Boeing Co.
Note: not included where the 25 firmed 787-9's ordered by Turkish Airlines this March.
Note: not included where the 25 firmed 787-9's ordered by Turkish Airlines this March.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Jon Ostrower's 797
When those in the "know
weigh-in it becomes time to speculate with some knowledgeable wisdom or just
some Wild A. Guessing. Winging IT talks about what Jon Ostrower surmises.
The 797 rendering is a logical procession in its advanced technology. Boeing will use what it uses best, its own stuff.
The 797 Renderings BY: Jon Ostrower on his welcome back blog. Please link to John's blog as he will soon become a valued contributor at another aviation site. This is a great opportunity for aviation fans following a knowledgeable contributor.
So, what might Boeing’s ‘Atlantic Fragmenter’ become?
Jon Ostrower's photo of:
Ostrower recognizes a 767 front snout and windows, a 787 like body composite and wings and a 737 tail cone. The oval is not dead! It is a plausible concept attracting all 767 fans and 787 aficionados.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
The 797 Cargo Conundrum
China wants cargo space when Boeing designed passenger space using an oval shape allowing a wide cabin for 250 passengers. China wants a Swiss Army knife style that hauls both passengers and freight at the same time. Boeing customers, such as Delta, want passengers for its 797. The China market is the fastest growing region of untapped commerce on the planet at this time. Both Delta and United are fickle for future airplane sales. Airbus is looking for a market stopping answer to Boeing's 797 proposals. If Boeing goes passenger in an oval shape then Airbus will go to a traditional body circle for its designs thus allowing both freight and passenger service for its potential customers in China.
The conundrum is for Boeing, not Airbus. Boeing could re-engine the 767 for freight and for its passengers hoping to snag a large Chinese order. That risk is too much for Boeing's canceled 767 passenger program. Boeing will not make two different 797 models, one for passengers only and another for passengers with a freight capacity. There is no solution for Boeing, in this case, it will build the passenger oval 797 hoping for at least two thousand orders while leaving the Asian market to an A-330 NEO like Airbus offering. Building a 787 light version for the 797 program is not advisable or should be considered unless copious numbers of orders exist for a 787 light version.
Boeing has the orders for a 797 start, but the number is way short of where it sees its financial targets before announcing. It probably has about 400 797 promises at this time but it would have to reach a thousand units committed before going all in on a 797 flying oval. It needs China in its battle with Airbus, Airbus needs China to save its widebody bottom end of the A-330/350 family. An A-360 or whatever is on the horizon from Airbus. The 797 was supposed to be a killer shot plugging the A-321 NEO. Instead, the game of aviation leapfrog will continue for both makers trading off model against the model for years to come.
A concluding sentiment is for Boeing. Build the 797 flying oval and well above its competition capability, Airbus. China does need to move passengers at this segment in time. The option for freight service by the 767 (i.e. FedEx, UPS) is well established.
China's freight needs will outgrow dual passenger level freight services almost immediately, and any other dual threat airplanes hauling both passengers and freight at the same time which will not serve its greater market but will only serve only in niche regions. The Gap airplane is not meant as a panacea for moving stuff but is meant for moving passengers up to 5,000 miles.
The conundrum is for Boeing, not Airbus. Boeing could re-engine the 767 for freight and for its passengers hoping to snag a large Chinese order. That risk is too much for Boeing's canceled 767 passenger program. Boeing will not make two different 797 models, one for passengers only and another for passengers with a freight capacity. There is no solution for Boeing, in this case, it will build the passenger oval 797 hoping for at least two thousand orders while leaving the Asian market to an A-330 NEO like Airbus offering. Building a 787 light version for the 797 program is not advisable or should be considered unless copious numbers of orders exist for a 787 light version.
Extreme Oval Design With Freight
Russia's version came before the 797 concepts: Pictured below.
Boeing has the orders for a 797 start, but the number is way short of where it sees its financial targets before announcing. It probably has about 400 797 promises at this time but it would have to reach a thousand units committed before going all in on a 797 flying oval. It needs China in its battle with Airbus, Airbus needs China to save its widebody bottom end of the A-330/350 family. An A-360 or whatever is on the horizon from Airbus. The 797 was supposed to be a killer shot plugging the A-321 NEO. Instead, the game of aviation leapfrog will continue for both makers trading off model against the model for years to come.
A concluding sentiment is for Boeing. Build the 797 flying oval and well above its competition capability, Airbus. China does need to move passengers at this segment in time. The option for freight service by the 767 (i.e. FedEx, UPS) is well established.
China's freight needs will outgrow dual passenger level freight services almost immediately, and any other dual threat airplanes hauling both passengers and freight at the same time which will not serve its greater market but will only serve only in niche regions. The Gap airplane is not meant as a panacea for moving stuff but is meant for moving passengers up to 5,000 miles.
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
How Big Is Boeing's Hawaiian Airlines Ticket Announcement BIG!!
Its only for 10 787-9's for $2.82 Billion
Currently:
"Hawaiian currently operates a mainline fleet of 54 aircraft: 24 Airbus A330-200 and 8 Boeing 767 wide-body aircraft, 2 A321neo and 20 717 narrow-body aircraft. The company selected the 787-9 as part of a competitive bid process that also included the Airbus A330-900. "
But:
Hawaiian has long held a preference for Airbus product over Boeing as it expanded its fleet with 24, A330 aircraft. They had a penchant for old equipment so the Max aircraft would be a natural replacement for its older narrow-bodied aircraft. The importance of the 787-9 order with Hawaiian makes this a BIG get for Boeing as the North American carrier blinked at a fleet opportunity change for Boeing product. Hawaiian has a history of holding onto equipment for a long time such as its 20 717 narrow body aircraft.
Expect some kind of heated competition for a narrow body order with both Airbus and Boeing bidding over the next few years. So far Airbus has 16 A-320 on order with Airbus. Hawaii is an American Iconic destination for world travelers and the advertising potential for an airplane product is almost limitless. Boeing has gained a significant toehold on this Island paradise with this widebody order. It only has to crack into Delta's fleet in a bigger way. This is a Big Boeing Bash for its 787 family of aircraft even though its order for 10 seems small compared with other airshow type orders.
Boeing 787-9 "Dreamliner" to Join Hawaiian Airlines Fleet
Currently:
"Hawaiian currently operates a mainline fleet of 54 aircraft: 24 Airbus A330-200 and 8 Boeing 767 wide-body aircraft, 2 A321neo and 20 717 narrow-body aircraft. The company selected the 787-9 as part of a competitive bid process that also included the Airbus A330-900. "
But:
Hawaiian has long held a preference for Airbus product over Boeing as it expanded its fleet with 24, A330 aircraft. They had a penchant for old equipment so the Max aircraft would be a natural replacement for its older narrow-bodied aircraft. The importance of the 787-9 order with Hawaiian makes this a BIG get for Boeing as the North American carrier blinked at a fleet opportunity change for Boeing product. Hawaiian has a history of holding onto equipment for a long time such as its 20 717 narrow body aircraft.
Expect some kind of heated competition for a narrow body order with both Airbus and Boeing bidding over the next few years. So far Airbus has 16 A-320 on order with Airbus. Hawaii is an American Iconic destination for world travelers and the advertising potential for an airplane product is almost limitless. Boeing has gained a significant toehold on this Island paradise with this widebody order. It only has to crack into Delta's fleet in a bigger way. This is a Big Boeing Bash for its 787 family of aircraft even though its order for 10 seems small compared with other airshow type orders.
Hawaiian Airlines 787 photo imagery
Monday, March 5, 2018
Three Horse Engine Race For The 797
The closer the 797 becomes a reality the closer an engine maker(s) emerge. The three top contenders will be a GE sponsored product (CFN), P&W redo from the A320-NEO world and finally Rolls Royce picking up where it left off with the 787 program competition. Boeing will not go the single-engine type route it did with its 737. The 797 airplane stance will allow any configured engine a maker could think of at this time. However, the matter could become a three-engine choice for customers.
CFN exclusively makes the 737 oval shaped engine because the low slung 737 wings only allows for a wedged in CFN from yonder days from the early 737 design screens. Other engine makers would not try for a Boeing 737 engine acceptance as it would cost them too much for an attempt at having no certain outcome. Boeing has now positioned itself to accept all attempts for an engine mounting just so its airplane buying customers are happy with superior engine performance. Boeing expects an initial order book of 2,000-4,000 797's and will bear the brunt of developing new airplane risks along the way.
The 787 program dug a 31 billion money pit as it trialed and error its way during the 2011-2015 787 time period. It will deliver a 787-10 this month with Singapore Airlines. Boeing may never or will probably retire the money pit by the 1400th model ordered. It now has an order book of 1,294 787's ordered which is short of the 1,400 unit block Boeing requires for extinguishing its deferred cost account. That account stands at or about 25 billion at this time. The deferred cost set aside allows Boeing a profit margin for each 787 delivered and thus reducing the deferred cost balance when delivering one 787. It thinks by unit 1,400 delivered. its 25 billion costs will evaporate. It will probably have to go farther in units delivered when it aspires for a zero balance.
The 797 is a big risk based on experience with the 787 program. However, Boeing became profit-addicted with its prior programs since the 737 through the 777. The 797 show a promise of profit and the high ground over its competitor. Airbus will answer Boeing's 797 attempts by various means such as its A-330 NEO or A321 NEO rendition. But history suggests those who are second to market never seem to capture the market high ground. Boeing can and will adjust later its 797 model according to how the market reacts. Otherwise, keeping the Boeing boot on the Airbus neck.
Back to engines and the 797. Its a big risk for the big three engine makers mentioned above. The question asked is how lucrative would a 4,000 engine market be split among the big three. The answer comes down to a big two answer where a European engine maker and a Western engine maker become the engine suppliers. Gear drove vs classic turbofan and so forth. The engines are the problem, not the 797 concepts. The latter is already finished. Boeing is waiting for big engine makers stepping forward with a reliable proposal for saving fuel for its Boeing's customers.
CFN exclusively makes the 737 oval shaped engine because the low slung 737 wings only allows for a wedged in CFN from yonder days from the early 737 design screens. Other engine makers would not try for a Boeing 737 engine acceptance as it would cost them too much for an attempt at having no certain outcome. Boeing has now positioned itself to accept all attempts for an engine mounting just so its airplane buying customers are happy with superior engine performance. Boeing expects an initial order book of 2,000-4,000 797's and will bear the brunt of developing new airplane risks along the way.
The 787 program dug a 31 billion money pit as it trialed and error its way during the 2011-2015 787 time period. It will deliver a 787-10 this month with Singapore Airlines. Boeing may never or will probably retire the money pit by the 1400th model ordered. It now has an order book of 1,294 787's ordered which is short of the 1,400 unit block Boeing requires for extinguishing its deferred cost account. That account stands at or about 25 billion at this time. The deferred cost set aside allows Boeing a profit margin for each 787 delivered and thus reducing the deferred cost balance when delivering one 787. It thinks by unit 1,400 delivered. its 25 billion costs will evaporate. It will probably have to go farther in units delivered when it aspires for a zero balance.
The 797 is a big risk based on experience with the 787 program. However, Boeing became profit-addicted with its prior programs since the 737 through the 777. The 797 show a promise of profit and the high ground over its competitor. Airbus will answer Boeing's 797 attempts by various means such as its A-330 NEO or A321 NEO rendition. But history suggests those who are second to market never seem to capture the market high ground. Boeing can and will adjust later its 797 model according to how the market reacts. Otherwise, keeping the Boeing boot on the Airbus neck.
Back to engines and the 797. Its a big risk for the big three engine makers mentioned above. The question asked is how lucrative would a 4,000 engine market be split among the big three. The answer comes down to a big two answer where a European engine maker and a Western engine maker become the engine suppliers. Gear drove vs classic turbofan and so forth. The engines are the problem, not the 797 concepts. The latter is already finished. Boeing is waiting for big engine makers stepping forward with a reliable proposal for saving fuel for its Boeing's customers.
Sunday, March 4, 2018
787-10 Is A Master Piece For Emirates
Below: is a copied article (excellent Boeing 101 class on the 787-10) which explains why the 787-10 beat the A-350 in a deal made with Boeing and Emirates late last year. It has yet to be booked by Boeing until all "deal" details are finalized. Probably during 2018.
November 15, 2017
Why did Emirates choose Boeing’s 787-10?
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Emirates Airlines (Emirates) has finally decided which aircraft shall complement their long-range Boeing 777 and Airbus A380. The decision coming at this year’s Dubai Air Show was more surprising than the choice, Boeing’s 787-10.
We have already written about the Emirates selection. Now we go through in more detail, why the choice should surprise no-one.
Boeing’s 787-10 compared to Airbus’ A350-900
Many write that the choice was about a medium-range aircraft versus a long-range model. This is part of the answer but it’s not the whole answer. The full answer is more involved. It’s equally about a more tightly packaged aircraft versus a more spacious one.
We will go through the key differences that decided which aircraft was the most suitable for Emirates need. In a second article tomorrow, we will quantify each difference and show how key choices for the aircraft series, many which had little to do with medium versus long range, finally add up to the differences in performance and economics that swung the choice.
Fuselage
At the base for the difference between the aircraft stands the choice of fuselage cross section. The fuselage cross-section decides the width of the cabin, but it also sets the weight and drag of the fuselage.
The weight of an airliner’s fuselage is dictated by the outer surface area of the fuselage. The reason is aircraft fuselages are “stressed skin” constructions since World War 2. “Stressed skin” construction means the fuselage skin carries the loads, stiffened to not buckle by vertical frames and horizontal longerons (the longitudinal profiles attached to the skin, also called stringers).
Weight
Aircraft certification rules result in, fuselages designed with the same technology and the same dimensions, end up weighing the same.
This means: more fuselage surface area, more weight.
If we now return to the 787-10 compared with the A350-900, we have a difference in fuselage dimensions. The 787-fuselage width is 5.77m with 5.97m height. The A350 fuselage has the dimensions 5.96m wide and 6.09m high.
This means the surface area of the 787 fuselage is 2.5% less for each unit length of the fuselage. One would think it would stay with this difference if both fuselages are of equal cabin length. It doesn’t.
If your fuselage diameter is larger, your nose and tail areas grow. For aerodynamic reasons you only taper your nose and tail at a certain rate. Larger diameter, therefore, means longer nose and tail. And this means more fuselage surface area. Airbus is now proposing to use the A350’s longer tail to house further cabin items.
Drag
Now onto the drag of the fuselage. A larger diameter fuselage has a higher drag. It’s not the drag that comes first to mind, the frontal area or pressure drag (which is insignificant for a modern airliner).
The dominant drag of an airliner at cruise is skin friction drag. Skin friction drag comes from the air rubbing the aircraft’s skin. So, more fuselage skin, more drag.
Observe that we have not yet talked about medium or long range. We just discuss the consequences of the A350 cabin being wider and therefore more comfortable for economy passengers. It results in differences, which are significant.
The rest of the aircraft
We now continue with the other components of the aircraft. If your fuselage weighs more, you need a larger wing and stronger engines for the same operational performance. A larger wing and engines, in turn, demands larger tail surfaces (with the same length fuselage).
The end effect is, the aircraft with the more spacious fuselage will, for the same passenger capacity, have a higher empty weight and higher drag.
This is true when everything else is equal. One could argue it’s not between the 787 and A350.
If we exclude the range difference, I would argue things are equal. The 787 and A350 are very similar in their build techniques.
Over my years of analyzing aircraft, I can find no difference between aircraft because one uses barrel based carbon composite fuselage sections and the other panel based sections.
And there seems to be a minimal operational difference between the more electrical system architecture of the 787 versus the conventional system architecture of the A350.
The builds of the wings are also similar. Both have high aspect ratio composite wings (their aspect ratios are within 1% of each other) with wing shape tailoring at cruise via movable spoilers/flaps. And both employ Fly-By-Wire load alleviation.
The differences from the fuselage packaging are by a wide margin more important than the differences in composite build or other techniques for the aircraft.
Medium range versus Long range
Up to this point, we have not discussed the consequences of designing an aircraft for medium range (we call 6,400nm medium range in this discussion) and another long range.
The difference is, the longer-range aircraft needs to take off with more fuel on board. So, if the aircraft carry the same payload, we have a higher empty weight (to hold the heavier fuel load) and higher Take-Off Weight (TOW, = empty weight + payload + fuel).
To get the higher TOW in the air on the same field length, the longer-range aircraft needs a larger wing and stronger engines.
In summary, the 8,000nm A350 has a larger fuselage, wing and engines. This all creates higher drag and therefore fuel burn when flying the same payload over a route.
It comes partly from the A350 being a longer range aircraft, but also from the A350 being less densely packaged.
Economic consequences
The consequences of a heavier and larger aircraft are not only a higher fuel burn.
Fuel was historically the dominant cost, the most important one when choosing aircraft. It’s still an important factor, but the importance is now shared with equal size crew and fee costs (fees paid to countries and airports for their air transport services).
Crew cost differences between aircraft like the 787 and A350 at equal size cabins, is dominated by the flight crew costs. For aircraft with equal capacity, maximum weight and range, flight crew costs are the same within an airline. If an aircraft type is more capable in any of these capacities, it means the flight crew is paid a higher wage.
Airport and airway use fees are based on the size of the aircraft. The parameter used to determine aircraft size is the Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW). A larger and longer-range aircraft will cost more in fees, as its MTOW will be higher.
The final part of the Cash Operational Costs (COC, meaning we exclude the capital costs of the aircraft) is the maintenance costs. Both the 787 and A350 are modern composite aircraft. Their airframe maintenance programs, and therefore costs, are similar.
The difference in aircraft size and capabilities means different size engines. The 787-10 engine Take-Off thrust is 76klbf versus 84klbf for the A350. The engine mass of the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB on the A350 is 2.3t higher than the Trent 1000 for the 787. Higher thrust and larger engines mean higher engine maintenance costs.
Summary
Emirates President Tim Clark said this week: “The Boeing 787-10 aircraft is the best choice for Emirates, it’s a good eight-hour aircraft.”
An eight-hour mission has a flying distance of 3,800nm. This is well below the advertised maximum range of the 787-10 (6,400nm) and certainly below the 8,000nm of the A350-900. The -900 can be “paper de-rated” to get the MTOW the same as the 787-10. But then the range is below the 787-10, at 5,900nm.
The costs being reduced are the flight crew costs, the fees and the engine maintenance costs (due to lower stress from lighter take-offs). But the fuel burn differences don’t change.
If Emirates are looking for the best eight-hour aircraft, the Boeing 787-10 is the best choice.
Friday, March 2, 2018
What Drives The 797 Idea Cost, Cost Costs
Starting any conversation concerning the 797 has to begin with How much will it cost Boeing to Build the 797? The cost driver will locate the assembly point, design points and its suppliers. All which seem to reside near or in the USA. A mature infrastructure with trained engineers are required. A intact supply chain is a must. The big three happen to be in the Northwest corner of the US. Labor is the wild card for this project as the "Union" has a grip in Washington State. If the Union(s) can agree they will lock up the 797 for years to come. Boeing is waiting not on its customers to pull the 797 trigger but all is massive costly lose ends.
Most of those lose ends are already resolved but a significant element is the labor quotient. Automation is labor's undoing. Boeing is automating the 777X and has dialed in the the work force component with the 787 program. Boeing is figuring out how many workers it will need and how many machines can be positioned for the manufacturer of said product. The Unions are here to stay in Washington state but the numbers can be mitigated by new processes. When 10,000 workers were needed during 1950 only a 1,000 are need today for the same production output. Boeing hopes to reduce that number into the hundreds as machines drill holes and place fasteners in the process. Human hands are needed for stuffing and airplane body of all its wires, insulation and mechanical applications. Only time will give a complete snap together body connecting the parts which works into one snap. It will take only a few workers to finish the work in that future.
However, the 797 would only be half way there for a complete low cost high tech solution having precision beyond what a human can do. It just a matter of time before that happens. The 797 finds itself closing that gap because Boeing insist it will need to build 797 excellent enough and cheap enough at the same time. It will close the cost gap with plant, design and supplier innovation but it will need just enough people to build the 797. That is holding Boeing back until it figures the 797 costs component of the program.
Most of those lose ends are already resolved but a significant element is the labor quotient. Automation is labor's undoing. Boeing is automating the 777X and has dialed in the the work force component with the 787 program. Boeing is figuring out how many workers it will need and how many machines can be positioned for the manufacturer of said product. The Unions are here to stay in Washington state but the numbers can be mitigated by new processes. When 10,000 workers were needed during 1950 only a 1,000 are need today for the same production output. Boeing hopes to reduce that number into the hundreds as machines drill holes and place fasteners in the process. Human hands are needed for stuffing and airplane body of all its wires, insulation and mechanical applications. Only time will give a complete snap together body connecting the parts which works into one snap. It will take only a few workers to finish the work in that future.
However, the 797 would only be half way there for a complete low cost high tech solution having precision beyond what a human can do. It just a matter of time before that happens. The 797 finds itself closing that gap because Boeing insist it will need to build 797 excellent enough and cheap enough at the same time. It will close the cost gap with plant, design and supplier innovation but it will need just enough people to build the 797. That is holding Boeing back until it figures the 797 costs component of the program.
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
If Delta Wants It The 797 Concept Is Ready
Many wonder when the 797 will come and what will comprise the 797. Delta Airlines has seen enough suggesting a freezing of the concept leaving only bloggers to imagine what Delta has seen and likes. Long has "Winging IT" gone with a dual aisle elliptical body. Perhaps the elliptical in its design is too much. That would cost Boeing more money than it is willing to fork out on another moon shot.
Delta probably agrees with a very slight oval body not even noticeable by a passerby. The point is a composite body and wings in a dual aisle fashion smaller than the 787 widths. A promise of an engine selection has been having been made by Boeing to either CFM or GE. It is a slight to Airbus and Rolls. The technology will be applied from already tested proven, and in-service advances. Delta doesn't care about Boeing messages sent to the competitor it only cares about how a 797 would make it more money. Delta is not brand-centric in its profit model, only to the extent of maintaining some fleet commonality making the fleet more efficient to maintain or customers depend upon. The 797 would have an opposite effect. Customers will clamor for a new gap filler aircraft and Delta's fleet would eagerly absorb a Boeing product with its other Boeing products already in use.
Therefore, a new class of aircraft from Boeing breaks all commonality rules and cancels the need for an "all" Airbus product in its line-up. In Fact, Delta is a Boeing customer already and a 797 could replace its aging 767's and develop new markets uniquely. Airbus does not have an answer to this for this Boeing proposal.
Time to market is a critical element. Boeing will bring a 797 to market in under five years. Therefore, no experimenting with oddly shaped bodies. The 797 may be a template for an all-new composite 737 Family of aircraft by 2030. Boeing would need an all-new 737 that would bring another 10% efficiency to the single-aisle marketplace by the 2030's. The 797 is that stepping stone for meeting a single-aisle aircraft remake.
The whole stopping point for grandiose thinking is hinged upon the engine for the 797 and that is something Boeing has drawn up for customers like Delta. The 797 will stand tall enough for accepting new engine concepts having larger diameters than a 68" Max engine. It will have a taller landing gear designed into its body. Something special is planned to hang under the 797 wing. which give room for future engine developments 50 years going forward.
Delta Airlines is a smoke signal from for Boeing customers have been assembled for this 797 project. Boeing is only waiting for the big announcement event at the Airshow calendar event. Farnborough is next. Airbus can only announce a paper idea as counter at this time. Boeing has its paper airplane.
Delta probably agrees with a very slight oval body not even noticeable by a passerby. The point is a composite body and wings in a dual aisle fashion smaller than the 787 widths. A promise of an engine selection has been having been made by Boeing to either CFM or GE. It is a slight to Airbus and Rolls. The technology will be applied from already tested proven, and in-service advances. Delta doesn't care about Boeing messages sent to the competitor it only cares about how a 797 would make it more money. Delta is not brand-centric in its profit model, only to the extent of maintaining some fleet commonality making the fleet more efficient to maintain or customers depend upon. The 797 would have an opposite effect. Customers will clamor for a new gap filler aircraft and Delta's fleet would eagerly absorb a Boeing product with its other Boeing products already in use.
Therefore, a new class of aircraft from Boeing breaks all commonality rules and cancels the need for an "all" Airbus product in its line-up. In Fact, Delta is a Boeing customer already and a 797 could replace its aging 767's and develop new markets uniquely. Airbus does not have an answer to this for this Boeing proposal.
Time to market is a critical element. Boeing will bring a 797 to market in under five years. Therefore, no experimenting with oddly shaped bodies. The 797 may be a template for an all-new composite 737 Family of aircraft by 2030. Boeing would need an all-new 737 that would bring another 10% efficiency to the single-aisle marketplace by the 2030's. The 797 is that stepping stone for meeting a single-aisle aircraft remake.
The whole stopping point for grandiose thinking is hinged upon the engine for the 797 and that is something Boeing has drawn up for customers like Delta. The 797 will stand tall enough for accepting new engine concepts having larger diameters than a 68" Max engine. It will have a taller landing gear designed into its body. Something special is planned to hang under the 797 wing. which give room for future engine developments 50 years going forward.
Delta Airlines is a smoke signal from for Boeing customers have been assembled for this 797 project. Boeing is only waiting for the big announcement event at the Airshow calendar event. Farnborough is next. Airbus can only announce a paper idea as counter at this time. Boeing has its paper airplane.
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
797 Demand Dooms Airbus Dominance
The overly complicated market model has the Airbus A-321 disrupting Boeing's market footprint from its nipping at the NMA market. Every Airbus A-321 order pushes Boeing to do something sooner rather than later. Boeing claims it needs more market research and customer feedback. Airlines are giving Boeing much-needed feedback already when every time an A-321 is ordered. It also opens the market window wider for an Airbus counter move. Airbus too is madly working in secret for an NMA counter punch and its A-321 is not that counter punch nor is its A-330. Boeing is committed to a lighter NMA body than an A-330 NEO. It also will hold many more passengers and fly farther than an A-321.
This alone indicates Airbus needs a clean sheet counter-punch for Boeing's impeding NMA announced offering. Boeing is concerned with getting this offering right for a broad base of customers who are publicly lining up as potential launch customers. There Qantas and Delta who have to open partnership with Boeing on what they want. There are GE and CFM who have a public expression as engine makers. There is plant space available in Charleston or Seattle areas competing for a Boeing manufacturing 797 production plant.
Boeing has a target in mind for how many launch customers and unit commitments required for an announcement. Boeing is farther down the road when it says it needs more market data from potential customers, suggesting its just waiting for launch units numbers. China and the rest of Asia remain silent on the matter. Taking all this into account one can easily see a 500 unit announcement for a Boeing 797. Some customers will convert prior orders into 797 orders. Delta has expressed a strong desire for the 797 NMA. This, of course, triggers United into an airplane buying mode. This, of course, triggers American into an airplane. Oops, repetition is the market data Boeing is looking for in search of 797 flattery.
China alone could order up to 250 797's for a regional grouping. North America could order up 250 797's as a North American response. Canadians are among us well. A great fit for Latin America premium fit. When looking for favored European customers starting with Norwegian Air and then Ryan Air. Air France will weigh in with 30 -50 orders. When the 737-10 was announced at its inaugural airshow there were so many conversions into a 737-10 model. In all about 200 737-10's were ordered. Possibly the 737-10 orders were dampened because of the 797 Boeing promise for the 797 by 2026, and the 737-10 is a time gap filler. It will be a long time before the 797 comes to market by 2026. Boeing waiting and waiting stretching Airbus patient. It wants a Boeing blueprint before following an NMA announcement. Boeing wants order numbers from Airbus customers as the linchpin pulled for a 797 announcement. It is waiting on Airbus fleet customers to sign on before announcing. India is one such Airbus customer. Note
This alone indicates Airbus needs a clean sheet counter-punch for Boeing's impeding NMA announced offering. Boeing is concerned with getting this offering right for a broad base of customers who are publicly lining up as potential launch customers. There Qantas and Delta who have to open partnership with Boeing on what they want. There are GE and CFM who have a public expression as engine makers. There is plant space available in Charleston or Seattle areas competing for a Boeing manufacturing 797 production plant.
Boeing has a target in mind for how many launch customers and unit commitments required for an announcement. Boeing is farther down the road when it says it needs more market data from potential customers, suggesting its just waiting for launch units numbers. China and the rest of Asia remain silent on the matter. Taking all this into account one can easily see a 500 unit announcement for a Boeing 797. Some customers will convert prior orders into 797 orders. Delta has expressed a strong desire for the 797 NMA. This, of course, triggers United into an airplane buying mode. This, of course, triggers American into an airplane. Oops, repetition is the market data Boeing is looking for in search of 797 flattery.
China alone could order up to 250 797's for a regional grouping. North America could order up 250 797's as a North American response. Canadians are among us well. A great fit for Latin America premium fit. When looking for favored European customers starting with Norwegian Air and then Ryan Air. Air France will weigh in with 30 -50 orders. When the 737-10 was announced at its inaugural airshow there were so many conversions into a 737-10 model. In all about 200 737-10's were ordered. Possibly the 737-10 orders were dampened because of the 797 Boeing promise for the 797 by 2026, and the 737-10 is a time gap filler. It will be a long time before the 797 comes to market by 2026. Boeing waiting and waiting stretching Airbus patient. It wants a Boeing blueprint before following an NMA announcement. Boeing wants order numbers from Airbus customers as the linchpin pulled for a 797 announcement. It is waiting on Airbus fleet customers to sign on before announcing. India is one such Airbus customer. Note
India Airbus customers could be stalling with ordering Airbus under the usual heading of in "negotiations" as it is also mulling over the 797 details with Boeing. The 797-time gap to market may be too much for either Vista or Tata.
Airbus will offer a price these two may not be able to resist having a long Boeing wait time before first delivery becomes a "too long wait" for either airline as it also would be an unlikely 797 Launch customers.
Finally, Airbus dominance in the single-aisle market will fade quickly once the 797 becomes available for a mid-range gap and "second tier" capable airports. Which happens to be the most numerous airport destinations available.
Finally, Airbus dominance in the single-aisle market will fade quickly once the 797 becomes available for a mid-range gap and "second tier" capable airports. Which happens to be the most numerous airport destinations available.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
What is Known About Boeing's Black Hole
The Black Hole or known as the "NMA". Most people identify it as the New Medium Airplane. The 737 will fade into a pimple on the maker's cheek when it once was a beauty mole featured by every modeling front cover. The black hole, gap, or NMA is about to be studied by airplane aficionados. This study of looking past at success or failure will reveal how it affected the single aisle and dual aisle offerings from the 737 Max to the 787 Dream Liners .
Boeing wants to avoid a Max or Dream nightmare when making a 797. It can't live without it or may dump money on it while creating a massive embarrassment. However, Boeing has the chops and customers for stopping the A-321 bleeding from its rival, as it too slashes Boeing with every sale of the A-321. Norwegian airline is a good example. It has bought a fleet of Airbus A-321's for crossing the the Atlantic from Europe. Boeing is suffering a split personality over the 797 concept. No guts no glory condition exists as it ponders the base of the cliff its about to jump towards with a new mystery ship of flight.
The Black hole's edge is measured in baby steps towards that abyss. A 737-8, then a 737 dash 9 followed by the 737-10, as Boeing edges inch by seat inch closer to announcing there is light at the end of the Black Hole tunnel. The gravity of it all increases as Boeing nears the NMA precipice of that awful black hole fondly called the "middle of the market" or MOM.
Boeing will pull the trigger and jump since the weight of the matter is too much when hanging ten off the board on a primo market condition at high tide. All the hiding and symbolic gestures from Boeing Co. is for form points for the airline judges. Those numbers have been tallied by the judges and the black hole will be back-filled with a 797 soon. Boeing has run out of posturing statements and it now is hesitant to say anything further for fear of sounding ridiculous about something everyone already knows about. Boeing's next lame comment regarding a mystery program having a front office in Seattle Washington, awaits the next big dance at an airshow near the 51st parallel. A globe will solve the 51st parallel mystery announcing the 797.
Boeing's 797 NMA-797 is shown near NGC 1277 at about 5 light days from earth.
Boeing wants to avoid a Max or Dream nightmare when making a 797. It can't live without it or may dump money on it while creating a massive embarrassment. However, Boeing has the chops and customers for stopping the A-321 bleeding from its rival, as it too slashes Boeing with every sale of the A-321. Norwegian airline is a good example. It has bought a fleet of Airbus A-321's for crossing the the Atlantic from Europe. Boeing is suffering a split personality over the 797 concept. No guts no glory condition exists as it ponders the base of the cliff its about to jump towards with a new mystery ship of flight.
The Black hole's edge is measured in baby steps towards that abyss. A 737-8, then a 737 dash 9 followed by the 737-10, as Boeing edges inch by seat inch closer to announcing there is light at the end of the Black Hole tunnel. The gravity of it all increases as Boeing nears the NMA precipice of that awful black hole fondly called the "middle of the market" or MOM.
Boeing will pull the trigger and jump since the weight of the matter is too much when hanging ten off the board on a primo market condition at high tide. All the hiding and symbolic gestures from Boeing Co. is for form points for the airline judges. Those numbers have been tallied by the judges and the black hole will be back-filled with a 797 soon. Boeing has run out of posturing statements and it now is hesitant to say anything further for fear of sounding ridiculous about something everyone already knows about. Boeing's next lame comment regarding a mystery program having a front office in Seattle Washington, awaits the next big dance at an airshow near the 51st parallel. A globe will solve the 51st parallel mystery announcing the 797.
Location-Location-Location: The 51st Parallel
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
January Boeing Order Count Slight of Hand
Boeing posted its order count for January 31, 2018. Missing are the 14 747-8F's ordered by UPS announced in January by press release and a mysterious 17 unit deletion for the 737 Max just after 17 Max were ordered at the end of January leaving one Max BBJ and 10 P-8's for military acquisition and totaling 11 units net for January (whew). It may not be correct regarding model disposition at this time, but Boeing had a confusing first month of 2018 and Winging It "hopes" to have it corrected by Boeing's own data. Below is the Order Chart with Boeing notations. Tell me if it doesn't work for you!
Friday, February 9, 2018
The 787-300 Mysteriously Turns Into A 797
Remember when Boeing thought it something going right when it offered the 787-300 only to promptly cancel that Idea and focus on the 787-8? The 787-300 was supposed to carry about what a 797 would carry. It was supposed to fly what a 797 would fly. So What happened to the 787-300 as ANA only bought in on the 787-300 with 13 copies ordered. Like any fine wine the grapes are the same and the process of making alcoholic content is the same but what makes a great wine? Time or in Boeing's case timing. The 787-300 concept was an abject failure partially because it flew just over 3,000 miles and airlines were enamored with 7,000 plus miles at the time. The 797 is promised with 5,000 miles. I would suspect it will go dual aisle like the 787-300. I also expect it will only go 7 seats across. It probably go 250 seats maximum while a 270 seater Boeing mentioned is a bridge too far for it is attempt at this time.
This ultimate gap filler would supplant any 757 aficionados or 767 die-hards with medium airport fittings as high tech gap filler. Boeing learned some lessons during the early stages of the 787 stumbles. The 787-300 was non starter. The 797 is going to be what the 787 family couldn't be. It won't stretch to 337 passenger or fly just to 3,000 miles as Boeing once offered. But it will have two aisle because it has to not compete with the A321 NEO. It must define its own class better than what Airbus does for its customers with the A-321. Two aisle is that start that assures Qantas a fast turn around time under 35 minutes. Alan Joyce of Qantas came out of the Singapore Air Show with a big smile. Joyce will get his sunset aircraft with a gap filler to boot from Boeing. It will turn the far east on its ear so to speak and Qantas will be at the front of that line.
The Qantas order backlog with its 787-9's options will be turned into extra long range sunset busters during a Farnborough order book rally for the yet to be announced 797. The whole point is not Qantas or for Boeing's sales leader, Randy Tinseth but East Asia's market place. Qantas is grabbing position on what will be a Boeing order onslaught. Airbus is waiting to see what happens first before it dives in with a counter punch. The A321 is too successful for an Airbus blink until the market reacts.
This ultimate gap filler would supplant any 757 aficionados or 767 die-hards with medium airport fittings as high tech gap filler. Boeing learned some lessons during the early stages of the 787 stumbles. The 787-300 was non starter. The 797 is going to be what the 787 family couldn't be. It won't stretch to 337 passenger or fly just to 3,000 miles as Boeing once offered. But it will have two aisle because it has to not compete with the A321 NEO. It must define its own class better than what Airbus does for its customers with the A-321. Two aisle is that start that assures Qantas a fast turn around time under 35 minutes. Alan Joyce of Qantas came out of the Singapore Air Show with a big smile. Joyce will get his sunset aircraft with a gap filler to boot from Boeing. It will turn the far east on its ear so to speak and Qantas will be at the front of that line.
The Qantas order backlog with its 787-9's options will be turned into extra long range sunset busters during a Farnborough order book rally for the yet to be announced 797. The whole point is not Qantas or for Boeing's sales leader, Randy Tinseth but East Asia's market place. Qantas is grabbing position on what will be a Boeing order onslaught. Airbus is waiting to see what happens first before it dives in with a counter punch. The A321 is too successful for an Airbus blink until the market reacts.
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
The 797 Is More Than A Gap Filler
Boeing's idea is for a gap filling 797 which bridges a market hole from single aisle to the 787 family of aircraft. Natural performance numbers suggests a 5,000 mile range and up to 270 passengers though I doubt it would push the upper passenger seats. In a sales pitch, it would sensibly promote around a 220-250 seat range. Alan Joyce who is looking at A320 renewals in its Qantas fleet with an addition of A321 NEO's is pushing Boeing to the breaking point for announcing a 797 offering sometime in 2018. I would still suggest Farnborough Air Show is the proper moment for the 797 announcement. It sounds sooner rather than later something is coming from the Boeing concept file.
Boeing cannot wait for another A321 NEO sale before it could announce a 797. It will have lost too much program thrust for its 797 take-off. A sensible projection is Boeing has a firm body and wing design in hand for its 797 gap filler. It also knows it will create synergy for mature programs from the 737 to the 787. It might even change Allan Joyce's mind about ordering A321 NEO's or replacing its vast fleet of A-320's by flipping to the 737 Max's. If Boeing gets Embraer it will also open the Australian door for 130 seats and below market coming from a Boeing/Embraer product. Airbus will be pushing Bombardier product on all its current single aisle customers.
The pressure is mounting on Boeing to pull the 797 trigger as it would lose further ground to Airbus if doing nothing. It needs the gap filler as a catalyst for other product in Boeing's own plans. Embraer commercial will be a Boeing partnership which will bring Boeing avionics to its aircraft matching Boeing's own single aisle avionics up through the 777X program. Alan Joyce is playing both Airbus and Boeing at this time. It claims a limit on its financial resources so any decision must fit its purchasing capability. That being said, Qantas is seeking an advantage with one maker over the other throughout its fleet.
At the Singapore airshow, Joyce's favorable expressions towards Boeing only signals the game is not over yet. However, Boeing won't redirect its own offerings for just one customer like Qantas. Remember when Qantas ordered a boatload of 787's and then backed out later. Joyce remarked later, he is not yet convinced the 787 is an answer for Qantas having taken in 8 787-9's, which could just be leverage language for Boeing's position with Qantas. Even though he has been flying the 787-8's (11) with Jetstar, a Qantas subset. Joyce knows exactly what the 787 can do while saying "he is not yet convinced about the 787-9". It represents some kind of jet blast from Joyce at this time. It is not likely he will flip Boeing for Airbus, but nothing is impossible in today's world of aircraft selling and buying. If Boeing announces the 797 this summer, then Qantas may renew its old A-320 fleet with the 737 Max, add the 797, and buy more 787-9's at a heavily discounted price from Boeing. This is all pre Farnborough posturing by Qantas. A big Boeing day is coming during 2018.
Boeing cannot wait for another A321 NEO sale before it could announce a 797. It will have lost too much program thrust for its 797 take-off. A sensible projection is Boeing has a firm body and wing design in hand for its 797 gap filler. It also knows it will create synergy for mature programs from the 737 to the 787. It might even change Allan Joyce's mind about ordering A321 NEO's or replacing its vast fleet of A-320's by flipping to the 737 Max's. If Boeing gets Embraer it will also open the Australian door for 130 seats and below market coming from a Boeing/Embraer product. Airbus will be pushing Bombardier product on all its current single aisle customers.
The pressure is mounting on Boeing to pull the 797 trigger as it would lose further ground to Airbus if doing nothing. It needs the gap filler as a catalyst for other product in Boeing's own plans. Embraer commercial will be a Boeing partnership which will bring Boeing avionics to its aircraft matching Boeing's own single aisle avionics up through the 777X program. Alan Joyce is playing both Airbus and Boeing at this time. It claims a limit on its financial resources so any decision must fit its purchasing capability. That being said, Qantas is seeking an advantage with one maker over the other throughout its fleet.
At the Singapore airshow, Joyce's favorable expressions towards Boeing only signals the game is not over yet. However, Boeing won't redirect its own offerings for just one customer like Qantas. Remember when Qantas ordered a boatload of 787's and then backed out later. Joyce remarked later, he is not yet convinced the 787 is an answer for Qantas having taken in 8 787-9's, which could just be leverage language for Boeing's position with Qantas. Even though he has been flying the 787-8's (11) with Jetstar, a Qantas subset. Joyce knows exactly what the 787 can do while saying "he is not yet convinced about the 787-9". It represents some kind of jet blast from Joyce at this time. It is not likely he will flip Boeing for Airbus, but nothing is impossible in today's world of aircraft selling and buying. If Boeing announces the 797 this summer, then Qantas may renew its old A-320 fleet with the 737 Max, add the 797, and buy more 787-9's at a heavily discounted price from Boeing. This is all pre Farnborough posturing by Qantas. A big Boeing day is coming during 2018.
Friday, February 2, 2018
Today UPS Bought 14 More 747-8F's
All along Boeing contended the life of the 747 depended on the freight business not passenger service for its future. Today, UPS helped the Boeing claim along buy cashing in its 14 options for the 747-8F. In 2016, UPS ordered a staggering 14 747-8F's optioning for 14 more of its type. Today was a firming day for those option as the news reported. Whether it happened in January or February 2018 will soon be revealed in Boeing's monthly orders and delivery updates on its website.
What this means? Is the topic of this short discussion. Boeing has factory capacity for four more years at a 6 a year 747 production rate. All those engineers can now update resumes and contribute towards its unemployment accounts before any near term lay-off occurs which now seems a distant thought on the factory floor. Boeing has four more years for finding more freight customers for its 747-8F's. Over time, the cycle will bend towards Boeing's freight business direction again as the world's economies ebb and flow the stock markets.
Boeing has bought time for its other programs. It has 747 engineers in its hip pocket for anything pending on future accomplishing. Plant capacity is held in reserve as it builds 28 more 747's. A call will be made by 2020 for launching something new as an always improving business model expands its portfolio towards a 777-10X or a 797 NMA. Booth those concepts are now waiting the competition out. It won't go first like it did with the 787. Airbus blinked with a A321-LR. But it is also holding cards as long as it wants as customer buy the A321 in a continuing flow. An observation for any gambler, is timing, once the horses are loaded at the gate.
Boeing wants an Airbus A321 LR in test mode before it launches an NMA. Airbus wants its rendition of an NMA springing from an A-330 down sizing, which will be drawn in a hurry going to to market as a Boeing beater.
Its rapidly turning into a tit for tat airplane building world as Boeing spits at Bombardier and hugs Embraer in a fit. In this slug fest, "a customer" wants to end up as a winner with better products and mechanisms for beating its own competition. The passenger just wants a seat that can hold 190 lbs in comfort. The 17" wide affair is for third world sensibilities, where blue collar working travelers are faced with recline issues and no wifi. The shoulder roll works only for 90 minutes in a 10 hr flight. Colored lighting is a small benefit for contortionist who insist on flying to Singapore and back to LA.
Friday, January 26, 2018
Airports Need A Theme Park Mentality
Can every airport or hub become a "Pirates of The Caribbean" ride? And... what's wrong with that?
For your airfare you gain access to the airports pavilions, food court's and "rest areas". Want to stay the snow storm? No problem as there may be sleeping hovels with showers included just past the TSA gate. Early attempts on club lounges for first class passengers was on the right track. Also known as Sky Lounges. The next great hub will amaze travelers with shops and entertainment venues dotting the concourses near your airline gate.
Imagine a two hour-lay over interrupted by a final boarding announcement over the PA system. Not to worry, an airport concierge has your GPS location and vibrates the heck out of your wrist just fifteen minutes before take-off warning. Its time enough to pull away from your entertainment venue and go straight to the boarding line only feet away from what ever entertainment preoccupying your senses.
Its not all fantasy yet, but it will appear at the next airport renovation, centered on passenger pallets who are walking with credit cards.There are so many ideas pioneered by Disney, Six Flags or Universal who may opt-in for treating airport prisoners with a plethora of food, fantasy, and fun functions. Its just a matter of time for making the Airport hub the destination along the way. In fact an all-nighter lay-over becomes the point.
For your airfare you gain access to the airports pavilions, food court's and "rest areas". Want to stay the snow storm? No problem as there may be sleeping hovels with showers included just past the TSA gate. Early attempts on club lounges for first class passengers was on the right track. Also known as Sky Lounges. The next great hub will amaze travelers with shops and entertainment venues dotting the concourses near your airline gate.
Imagine a two hour-lay over interrupted by a final boarding announcement over the PA system. Not to worry, an airport concierge has your GPS location and vibrates the heck out of your wrist just fifteen minutes before take-off warning. Its time enough to pull away from your entertainment venue and go straight to the boarding line only feet away from what ever entertainment preoccupying your senses.
Its not all fantasy yet, but it will appear at the next airport renovation, centered on passenger pallets who are walking with credit cards.There are so many ideas pioneered by Disney, Six Flags or Universal who may opt-in for treating airport prisoners with a plethora of food, fantasy, and fun functions. Its just a matter of time for making the Airport hub the destination along the way. In fact an all-nighter lay-over becomes the point.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Boise ID Is A Great Fit For Airplane Making
Boeing has several decisions to make during 2018. One is whether to build or not to build a New Medium Aircraft often referred as the 797. The airplane is a shoe horn fit between the 737 Max 10 and the 787-8. Its counter part, Airbus, indicates making add-on's to its own A321 NEO as a quick and dirty response for anything market gap filing. It would quickly stretch and bend the A321 for more fuel and passenger space where Boeing would make a clean sheet design different from its own largest single aisle example from the 737 Max 10 family of aircraft.
The mid sized cities in America are now in the competition of wooing Boeing into its zip code for an airplane making adventure. The Northwest and Washington State has a great advantage over other towns across North America. Spokane, WA is an active suitor for the 797 program if announced. Moses Lake could fill its Eastern Wa hole with a factory no one could even notice from the freeway drive-by. The one city within the five hundred mile circle from Seattle is Boise, ID and it has a surprising chance.
Boise is a clean sheet location having infrastructure available for building the Boeing 797. A middle American town having great core unmatched by big city taxes, congestion and life style penalties. It the open space version of a Seattle park system. The different is millions of acres of mountains, deserts and canyons for which Seattle could not have even if Mt Rainier blew its top.
Boise State University (BSU) is not one of those sandstone eastern schools citing two hundred years of tradition as its main talking point but has become a metro school where the world market changes and new building go up for teaching students how to lead those changes. Since the IT world has turned the world upside down Many IT based companies have come to Boise. Micron Technology, Hewlett Packard and recently intuit (T-Sheets). BSU has partnered with those businesses as it is in the business of making trained graduates with western work ethics who end up making these anchor companies succeed. The work force in Boise is more than competent for any Boeing venture. operation.
The city area is larger than Spokane at 650,000 people and has open space surrounding the metropolitan area in abundance. One area directly south of the airport is an open space for more air traffic expansion. The outlying southern Owyhee region would rival any of Nevada's testing secret areas. Idaho doesn't have lake beds like Nevada but it does have privacy for hundreds of miles and immediate connections with military operation at Mountain Home AFB and Gowan Field ANG in Boise. Boise has a consistent and convenient juxtaposition with its other tests locations. Moses Lake, and Glendive MT. The railroad comes right to the Airport or any other industrial location in the greater treasure valley as a spur line built out by only a few miles, Union Pacific. Boise is a technology breeding ground and is rapidly gaining prominence as a business leader in the region.
A Boeing project like the 797 would be a low cost risk with a guaranteed workforce at hand with any union affiliations. The land is cheap and taxes are on the low side as compared with every other area in the US. A move to Boise would surprise the aviation world as Boeing would catch another Dream with 797 project. The location is ideal from its centrally located position on the Northwest map.
The mid sized cities in America are now in the competition of wooing Boeing into its zip code for an airplane making adventure. The Northwest and Washington State has a great advantage over other towns across North America. Spokane, WA is an active suitor for the 797 program if announced. Moses Lake could fill its Eastern Wa hole with a factory no one could even notice from the freeway drive-by. The one city within the five hundred mile circle from Seattle is Boise, ID and it has a surprising chance.
Boise is a clean sheet location having infrastructure available for building the Boeing 797. A middle American town having great core unmatched by big city taxes, congestion and life style penalties. It the open space version of a Seattle park system. The different is millions of acres of mountains, deserts and canyons for which Seattle could not have even if Mt Rainier blew its top.
Boise State University (BSU) is not one of those sandstone eastern schools citing two hundred years of tradition as its main talking point but has become a metro school where the world market changes and new building go up for teaching students how to lead those changes. Since the IT world has turned the world upside down Many IT based companies have come to Boise. Micron Technology, Hewlett Packard and recently intuit (T-Sheets). BSU has partnered with those businesses as it is in the business of making trained graduates with western work ethics who end up making these anchor companies succeed. The work force in Boise is more than competent for any Boeing venture. operation.
The city area is larger than Spokane at 650,000 people and has open space surrounding the metropolitan area in abundance. One area directly south of the airport is an open space for more air traffic expansion. The outlying southern Owyhee region would rival any of Nevada's testing secret areas. Idaho doesn't have lake beds like Nevada but it does have privacy for hundreds of miles and immediate connections with military operation at Mountain Home AFB and Gowan Field ANG in Boise. Boise has a consistent and convenient juxtaposition with its other tests locations. Moses Lake, and Glendive MT. The railroad comes right to the Airport or any other industrial location in the greater treasure valley as a spur line built out by only a few miles, Union Pacific. Boise is a technology breeding ground and is rapidly gaining prominence as a business leader in the region.
A Boeing project like the 797 would be a low cost risk with a guaranteed workforce at hand with any union affiliations. The land is cheap and taxes are on the low side as compared with every other area in the US. A move to Boise would surprise the aviation world as Boeing would catch another Dream with 797 project. The location is ideal from its centrally located position on the Northwest map.
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