The 797 Is More Than A Gap Filler

Boeing's idea is for a gap filling 797 which bridges a market hole from single aisle to the 787 family of aircraft. Natural performance numbers suggests a 5,000 mile range and up to 270 passengers though I doubt it would push the upper passenger seats. In a sales pitch, it would sensibly promote around a 220-250 seat range. Alan Joyce who is looking at A320 renewals in its Qantas fleet with an addition of A321 NEO's is pushing Boeing to the breaking point for announcing a 797 offering sometime in 2018. I would still suggest Farnborough Air Show is the proper moment for the 797 announcement. It sounds sooner rather than later something is coming from the Boeing concept file.

Boeing cannot wait for another A321 NEO sale before it could announce a 797. It will have lost too much program thrust for its 797 take-off. A sensible projection is Boeing has a firm body and wing design in hand for its 797 gap filler. It also knows it will create synergy for mature programs from the 737 to the 787. It might even change Allan Joyce's mind about ordering A321 NEO's or replacing its vast fleet of A-320's by flipping to the 737 Max's. If Boeing gets Embraer it will also open the Australian door for 130 seats and below market coming from a Boeing/Embraer product. Airbus will be pushing Bombardier product on all its current single aisle customers.

The pressure is mounting on Boeing to pull the 797 trigger as it would lose further ground to Airbus if doing nothing. It needs the gap filler as a catalyst for other product in Boeing's own plans. Embraer commercial will be a Boeing partnership which will bring Boeing avionics to its aircraft matching Boeing's own single aisle avionics up through the 777X program. Alan Joyce is playing both Airbus and Boeing at this time. It claims a limit on its financial resources so any decision must fit its purchasing capability. That being said, Qantas is seeking an advantage with one maker over the other throughout its fleet. 

At the Singapore airshow, Joyce's favorable expressions towards Boeing only signals the game is not over yet. However, Boeing won't redirect its own offerings for just one customer like Qantas. Remember when Qantas ordered a boatload of 787's and then backed out later. Joyce remarked later, he is not yet convinced the 787 is an answer for Qantas having taken in 8 787-9's, which could just be leverage language for Boeing's position with Qantas. Even though he has been flying the 787-8's (11) with Jetstar, a Qantas subset. Joyce knows exactly what the 787 can do while saying "he is not yet convinced about the 787-9". It represents some kind of jet blast from Joyce at this time.  It is not likely he will flip Boeing for Airbus, but nothing is impossible in today's world of aircraft selling and buying. If Boeing announces the 797 this summer, then Qantas may renew its old A-320 fleet with the 737 Max, add the 797, and buy more 787-9's at a heavily discounted price from Boeing. This is all pre Farnborough posturing by Qantas. A big Boeing day is coming during 2018.