797 Demand Dooms Airbus Dominance

The overly complicated market model has the Airbus A-321 disrupting Boeing's market footprint from its nipping at the NMA market. Every Airbus A-321 order pushes Boeing to do something sooner rather than later. Boeing claims it needs more market research and customer feedback. Airlines are giving Boeing much-needed feedback already when every time an A-321 is ordered. It also opens the market window wider for an Airbus counter move. Airbus too is madly working in secret for an NMA counter punch and its A-321 is not that counter punch nor is its A-330. Boeing is committed to a lighter NMA body than an A-330 NEO. It also will hold many more passengers and fly farther than an A-321.

This alone indicates Airbus needs a clean sheet counter-punch for Boeing's impeding NMA announced offering. Boeing is concerned with getting this offering right for a broad base of customers who are publicly lining up as potential launch customers. There Qantas and Delta who have to open partnership with Boeing on what they want. There are GE and CFM who have a public expression as engine makers. There is plant space available in Charleston or Seattle areas competing for a Boeing manufacturing 797 production plant. 

Boeing has a target in mind for how many launch customers and unit commitments required for an announcement. Boeing is farther down the road when it says it needs more market data from potential customers, suggesting its just waiting for launch units numbers. China and the rest of  Asia remain silent on the matter. Taking all this into account one can easily see a 500 unit announcement for a Boeing 797. Some customers will convert prior orders into 797 orders. Delta has expressed a strong desire for the 797 NMA. This, of course, triggers United into an airplane buying mode. This, of course, triggers American into an airplane. Oops, repetition is the market data Boeing is looking for in search of 797 flattery.

China alone could order up to 250 797's for a regional grouping. North America could order up 250 797's as a North American response. Canadians are among us well. A great fit for Latin America premium fit. When looking for favored European customers starting with Norwegian Air and then Ryan Air. Air France will weigh in with 30 -50 orders. When the 737-10 was announced at its inaugural airshow there were so many conversions into a 737-10 model. In all about 200 737-10's were ordered. Possibly the 737-10 orders were dampened because of the 797 Boeing promise for the 797 by 2026, and the 737-10 is a time gap filler. It will be a long time before the 797 comes to market by 2026. Boeing waiting and waiting stretching Airbus patient. It wants a Boeing blueprint before following an NMA announcement. Boeing wants order numbers from Airbus customers as the linchpin pulled for a 797 announcement. It is waiting on Airbus fleet customers to sign on before announcing. India is one such Airbus customer. Note

• India’s Vistara may buy as many as 60 aircraft for expansion
• Singapore-Tata venture said to discuss buying A320, A330 NEO's

India Airbus customers could be stalling with ordering Airbus under the usual heading of in "negotiations" as it is also mulling over the 797 details with Boeing.  The 797-time gap to market may be too much for either Vista or Tata.

Airbus will offer a price these two may not be able to resist having a long Boeing wait time before first delivery becomes a  "too long wait" for either airline as it also would be an unlikely 797 Launch customers.

Finally, Airbus dominance in the single-aisle market will fade quickly once the 797 becomes available for a mid-range gap and "second tier" capable airports. Which happens to be the most numerous airport destinations available.