"flydubai" Saves Boeing's Day With 225 Max Ordered

The slug fest has started with an Airbus 430 Single Aisle order for 49 Billion at list prices. Boeing counter punches with an order from "flydubai" worth $27 Billion ordering 225 of its Single aisle Max aircraft. A Winging It hint was given last week this would be a single aisle sales event.

Winging It November 12: 

"The show is just starting, it ain't over yet!"

Winging It:

November 7, 2017:   “Dubai and the Tip Of The Wing”

Quote:

"The show remains a mystery for orders where Boeing should pick up a sampling of wide body orders rather than having a domination of orders coming from one or two customers. The dark horse is the 737 Max family where a surprising number of the single aisle orders could come in as it is overdue for some more Middle Eastern love."

This prediction did not include an Airbus huge announcement by a previous unknown player to this story. More research and development work is needed by this writer. 

Bloomberg Scoops Dubai With Massive Order News

Airbus is pulling another rabbit out of its hat with a massive single aisle order with Indigo Partners indicating 430 single aisle A-320's. It will be announced in about two hours of this posting.Can't say I saw this coming but it absolutely steals the Dubai show from Boeing if it holds true.

Bloomberg Reporting

Does The Dubai Forty Mean Something?

Emirates placed an order for 40 787-10's at the Dubai airshow. Another clue came forward recently from a remark about the 787-10's testing suggesting Emirates is fond of its flexibility.

Quote from the Charleston Regional Business Journal:

“Emirates has displayed immense confidence in the South Carolina-built 787-10s and has seen the maturation of the airplane during testing as well,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst with StrategicAero Research, in an email. “Coupled with Boeing’s rate hike to 14 airplanes a month, this is not the only sizeable 787 [order] we’ll see. There are others almost certainly ready to be revealed if they aren’t in the bag already.”

This brief comment suggests Emirates was walking hand in hand with Boeing during early validation tests on the 787-10. One question must of have been answered during the Emirates participation observing 787-10 testing. This model can stand the desert heat and deliver flying efficiency beyond what its competitor can do.

A second clue from the above quote indicates the 787-10's remarkable flexibility for long haul flights not formerly indicated by Boeing's own publications. The 787-10 has outperformed Boeing's own estimations documented before air frame testing was conducted. It is capable of longer distances than first reported. The 787-10 doesn't have to go beyond 7,000 miles, it just has to go where its potential customers travel. The Emirates business philosophy is right sizing capability within a family of aircraft which Airbus lacks. 

There is no A-350-800 it’s a paper airplane. The A-350-900 is a one trick pony and has more capability than needed, so it hauls that unused capability everywhere while only meeting maximum efficiency 10% of the time. The A-350-1000 steadily loses ground or has a stagnate order book since many airlines cannot find a slot within its business footprint. The 777X is a common ally to all of Boeing's other aircraft. The A-350-1000 only has one friend, that in the A-350-900, making it a family of aircraft I guess.

Airbus is losing the WB end of the airplane spectrum rapidly because it cannot connect the dots from single aisle to the A-380. Boeing has completed several important goals where Airbus has failed to do so in response. A short list below describes the Airbus shortfalls causing customers coming back to Boeing in numbers.

·      Incomplete A-350 Family from Top to Bottom.

·      Inability to counter the 777X program

·      Cannot counter Boeing's mid-range high density 787-10 slot with any of its aircraft.

·      Boeing buried its 747 Jumbo, Airbus can't give up the A-380 before its Break-even point. 

The "Dubai forty" 787-10 is a serious red flag for Airbus. Even if Emirates does place an order for another 30 A-380’s it will have a hard time staying with the A-380 as competitors continue with the Boeing family of aircraft. It will become a one-off super Jumbo carrier. The other airlines will nip its heals around the jumbo fleet. 

However, Emirates realize its ill-fated tacking move with the A-380 and it made a new tack in 2013 by ordering 150 of Boeing’s 777-X’s. Coincidentally, 150 units is a similar to its 142 A-350 orders it has on the Airbus order book. The 787-10 fills an important slot along with the 777X that will in time replace all it’s a-380’s. The total wide body book for Boeing’s "new wide body" stands at 190 not counting the 777-300-ER backlog.

Emirates has to replace its older 777’s in the next ten years. A problem posed with Boeing’s marketing team. Some of the long range Boeing commitment to its customers has been made with this Dubai 40 order. Emirates will need more aircraft in its fleet to replace both the A-380 and its older 777’s. Another airshow another day is the answer for this dilemma. Emirates will need another 100 wide body order in five years. Probably a 50-50 split with the 777X and the 787 family. It just has to wait to see if the 787-10 and 777X works as advertised during testing. It appears the 787-10 has accomplished its goals.

Emirates: "How Suite It Is"

The United Arab Emirates is installing first class suites towards the pointy end of its 777's. For those who work from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM, here is a Dubai airshow promo of the the "Suite". No ticket price range for the seat was mentioned but when flying that high it is rude to ask how much it cost because by asking you can't afford it.

The Emirates New 777-300-ER  Suite

After studying this photo for some time the following complaints were listed.

• No Lou
• No Micro Wave
• No stocked refrigerator
• and finally no in-cabin personal attendant

The pitch is 40 square feet and boredom becomes a passenger's problem. It is much different in economy when passenger heights can vary from 19" to 80". Square foot comparisons could be made and  its a squeezing attempt from economy's  3.6 sq ft per seat compared with the suite's 40 sq ft. Suite coffee is free in fact after purchasing a suite's ticket everything is free. Using the price per sq. ft. scientific calculation for the ticket may indicate how much it would cost to buy a suite ticket? 

If an economy ticket cost $500 going 6,000 miles it works out to 2.3 cents per sq.ft-per seat-per mile.

The economy of scale takes $.023 times 40 sq ft times 6,000 coming up with $5,550 dollars. Add cruise ship gratuity rates and "incidental costs" it quickly becomes $6,500 dollars for a suite from here to there.

Airlines spend more time ciphering up a ticket price using a big spinning wheel similar to the ones found in Las Vegas, than what the Winging It team's clock indicated when fumble fingering a calculator. There should be a standard, not unlike an airlines efficiency metric called seat/ mile, when analyzing ticket prices. 

In this case it could be called sq.ft/seat/mile or Economy sq.ft./seat/mile and so forth. However it may be sliced-up, suites represent a ludicrous profit dollar where economy covers the trip's operational costs and Business class represents a mix between profit percentages and its operational costs. 

Emirates has a business plan and its involves copious amounts of cash. 

Winging It Said 50, Emirates Orders 40

Earlier, Winging It predicted about 50 787's would be ordered by Emirates in various models. However, (sometimes) a prediction can become wrong and it was missed by ten 787's and all 40 came-in as an Emirates order for 787-10's for $15.1 billion.

Winging It Quote: November 7, 2017

"So there should not have any additional 777X orders at this year's show. The only outlying is the 787-9 or  787-10. It could fill an Emirates fleet completeness having fifty ordered in a combination of the 787's. Its only speculation at this point, and no rumor is floating on that matter." 

Winging It Article Link 

Dubai and The Tip Of The Wing November 7,2017

The show is just starting, it ain't over yet!

Every Good Airplane Story Has a Beginning, Middle and End

Boeing has reported its on an exploratory mission for a new aircraft called MoM, NMA or 797 to name a few tags for this mission. The story begins with its chief competitor Airbus, with its A-321. Then there was the subplot with a thing called a 757 suffering a production retirement without a replacement in sight because of other ambitious projects; the 787, then Max and finally the 777X programs. Airbus was allowed to run the range of opportunity within an important segment chewing away at the single aisle big end of this market.

Chapter two begins with a simple title called "The Gap." It is an abandon place where airplane framers feared to tread, but had to go if it were to become the hero of this story. This gap is wedged between the 737 or A-320 single aisle airplanes and the dual aisle 787 wide body aircraft. The mathematicians were asked what a MoM would look like?

They tallied the inches in width of the 787, then added the inches in width of the 737 and  divided its total by two to come up with a gap airplane width. The calculation was (216" + 132") / 2 = MoM or 174 inches, or for people liking feet in instead of inches its about 14.5 feet. The maker said we need an XWB MoM so it added another 5 inches to 14.5 and came up with a 15 foot wide cabin. The "bean counters stepped in with two aisles and seven across seating. The "knights" working late poke and prod its engineering way through big windows.

Studies where made with all its customers and more studies were conducted by its accountants and a summary report indicated a 797 "might" be a good idea. The maker then asked for more studies taking the story to the middle of it all. Its evil competitor was not impressed since they could do the same only 5" wider than the hero of this story even after it made its MoM 5" wider than 14.5 feet. 

The story becomes complicated in the middle chapters. The serf's of this kingdom demanded less costs and the maker had to build its NMA selling for about $70 million as it would replace its old type selling for $200 million at list prices. The costs would be huge when considering an all new manufacturing and product concepts coming forward. Questions arose, could orders from the serfs be enough to pay for the development and then make a profit for the King?

The bookmark is on chapter 10 at this time and all the questions do not have answers so another study was ordered by its "wise" King from its northern county from the Northwest kingdom. 

Out of nowhere comes news that the $200 million beast was not dead since the study and surveys suggested a launch customer for the 797 needs more time replacing its older fleet of beasts. A certain serf has about 40 aging beasts grazing the airspace and it would like those replaced by a like beast until the NMA is ready. Other serfs once again questioned this idea with a big What?, as they also place some beast orders?

This story is nowhere near an ending it only has moved to the part where it has established a villain, a MoM and some studies so far. 

The King (of the) County issues another proclamation, "a study must be conducted this time "we" really mean it, and hear Ye, hear ye, call in the bean counters!" 

The serfs of the world were gathering at a ball near Castle Dubai, awaiting to hear about the new study conducted by Prime Minister, Prince Everett. 

A proclamation was issued from Castle Dubai from Prince Everett, "Long live MoM".

Chapter eleven-eleventy starts with a rumble of jet engines and the serfs cry out, "what happened to Seventy-seven (million dollars)?" 

Some said, "we won't live long enough to see the MoM" and others just cried out, "NMA, NMA, NMA".

The King replied, "subtract two from eleven and add two sevens and you will have your 797, there is no seventy with your seven. 

At this point math becomes too hard for the serfs. 

The King chants, "one more study, one more study, one more study!" So all the polling data flooded in from all corners of the earth. 

The evil empire says, "the market is too small and we can still do better", after offering no further explanation. 

The King was distraught but unfazed by the evil empire's slighted quip. 

He proclaims, "we have studies but I won't tell you what they say!"

The serfs become doubly anxious over having no NMA and feel orphaned from a non-existent MoM. They start wearing black Tee Shirts with a printed slogan, "Long Live The 797".

Not Mom

Photo credit from The Telegraph

Chapter 15 starts the beginning of the end part of this story long after the Castle Dubai Ball had ended. Skipping to the last chapter, it starts with MoM going to the Farnborough England Ball and it slays the dragon. The maker proclaims, "The end will come after the last study is completed."

What Does It Take To Blog?

A great support Team that encourages you everyday when faced with problems. Snickers-the-dog encourages me everyday to get busy even when I'm tired. She is the best.

More 777-300ER Orders = More 777X Orders

One critical point Boeing had to face was a diminishing  777 300-ER order book in front of the initial production of its new 777X models made in the same assembly space. Boeing needed more 777-300-ER's ordered before it could build its first 777X. The by-product of this sentiment is the unintended consequence of selling more 777-X's than anticipated because of the strength of sales of the 777-300-ER. 
The Dubai airshow next week will feature at its front and center the Emirates newest 777-300-ER delivered. This 777 will have a fantastic customer environment with its expansive seating arrangement, it wants to impress the world with this static display. Hardly a death knell for the 777-300-ER. 

Emirates may be up to something once again (2013 777X orders) and it will become known next week what it is.  It is also important to note that Emirates massive show display in the main pavilion is only a few feet away from Boeing's somewhat smaller display at the main entrance going into the show. The 777-300-ER should get an order nod at the show with some more orders. The pride of the middle east sits just outside with Emirates complete fleet by type on static display. The 777-300-ER it just received is a star at the show.

Boeing had a plan that it needed more 777's classics until the 777X made its first delivery in 2020 or possibly sooner. Boeing has about 111 classic 777's including its freight version to build and deliver until the 777X is ready as of October 31, 2017. It also has 326 of its 777X's on order as well. In total Boeing has an October ending backlog of 437  777 units it will build over the next half dozen years.

Seeking Alpha just reported; "China Southern Airlines airlines committed to the purchase of 30 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and 8 Boeing 777-300-ER's..."

Boeing, whom is counting the days and weeks it needs to keep its 777 assembly line full, prices the 777 classic so low its an offer a customer can't refuse. Boeing is looking beyond the 777X entry into service as demonstrated at next weeks Dubai Airshow with Emirates' 777 static display. The eight 777-300-ER just signed for by China Southern demonstrates that a full conversion from the 777-ER to the 777X production schedule will allow for more 777-ER sales until full rate 777X production is achieved.

Dubai Airshow could be a 777 completeness show where Boeing will end up with enough classic 777's ordered and more 787's to boot. After-all Boeing is rubbing shoulders with Emirates at the main pavilion's front door. A second point is for every 777-300-ER ordered it will represent a fleet renewal opportunity for Boeing's 777-X's over the next 10 years. If airline growth continues as predicted, the 777X will dominate the LR Wide body growth. Instead of 326 units currently on order it could conceivably exceed 500 total 777X sales by 2021. Boeing will have made the production assembly conversion from 777-300-ER to the 777X and it will have been a success.

Boeing-Airbus Backlog Wars

1. Single Aisle Battle

Wide Body Battle

Total (War) Book Value and Backlog Units Boeing Vs. Airbus

Boeing Wows Its Order Book 11-9-17

Boeing orders stayed quiet since October 26th, until... it now has a big order book reveal of 69 orders booked in the last two weeks. All that can be said, is wow! Below is the update chart according to Boeing's own data provided on Boeing.com. However this is a Winging Chart for its own tracking sanity.

Boeing Order Recap 11-9-2017

The important notes are the torrid pace of 787 orders for YTD 2017. It now stands at 96 net 787 orders. A second observation is how strong the Max and NG single aisle program is doing in 2017. A combined net 440 single aisle units have been ordered this year. The Airbus order log for November can't be updated until early December when its posts its own order progress including November 2017. It is probably safe to say Boeing will top Airbus in total book value and units for 2017 unless an order materializes out of thin air before final counts are reported. The total net Boeing units order now stands at 605 units for 2017 making a 1 to 1 book to bill ratio a true possibility.

Boeing's 14 A Month Announcement for 787's Is Much Bigger News

The Boeing slight of hand announcing of an additional two units a month on top of its consistent 12 a month 787 production, signals something big is going on with Boeing in the back rooms. A long standing Randy's Journal has been quiet for almost five months and he is Boeing's VP of marketing. This other flag raised signals Randy is really busy. Increased production and a silent Boeing VP Randy Tinseth indicates something big will be breaking soon. It maybe in small chunks or a large mega order. 

It is known that several 787 small orders are floating about. One with six Egypt Air and another 10 coming into a "mention" by a quietly reported airline emergence. These don't represent a mega order but signals a high level of activity is going on behind the scenes and Boeing is winning some small but important battles against its competitor, Airbus.

The 14 a month 787 production announcement tells a story that Boeing's teamwork is paying out order dividends at the least. The production research, pending orders and accounting have all come together and it is agreed fourteen 787 a month is sustainable and needed. The sustainable word becomes important as it is a direct reference link to its marketing arm. Boeing has more 787 sales going into 2018. Teamwork from top to bottom analyses everything before a production announcement like this is made. All the corporate cogs and wheels are turning smoothly.

Keeping a closely held hand private keeps the press guessing on what will happen next for the wide bodied industry. The Boeing emphasis is about the 787-10 and 777X programs. It is an often repeated comment by Boeing there will be more 787-10 sales after it enters into service with Singapore Airlines. Even though it will not fly as far as the A-350-900 or -1000, it will fly more efficiently within its market segment. The segment is high density passenger load under 6,000 miles. It will do that better than an A-350-900 which is always carrying along its long distance capability when flying within the highly lucrative under 6,000 mile market. That is why more 787-10's will be ordered.

The 777X is another big deal Boeing will churn out in the next couple of years. Boeing has dialed up its new plane development recipe since the 787-8 early days. Boeing now knows how run a program for success while using its all new technology at its disposal. The Everett wing plant was not a show stopper but a game changer for the 777X program. It had the equipment subcontractor just down the street and it had proprietary carbon fiber technology in its grasp. Hence the wing plant, is now making 100' wing spars with automated equipment. The assembly plant is next door by only several dozen feet.  Sounds efficient.

Boeing's new theme is to control what you can control and hire out those things which would be inefficient for it to do for itself. Boeing has pulled back in some of its airplane related build constructs as contractors did not meet Boeing's expectations of a supplier partner. The fourteen a month 787 announcement is an indicator Boeing has control over its wide body programs.

Another mention for the 777X is a note where the 777-9X replaces the 747 and the 777-8X replaces the 777-300-ER. Considering the A-380 dismal order numbers during the last three years having 777-9X orders could effectively kill the A-380 program. 

However, in a A-380 make-over developing new suites and luxurious seats will make the A-380 a desirable frame for those who can afford the ticket to cruise in the air like an Ocean going vessel it so wants to be. So far the A-380 in twelve years, has sold about 317 flying cruise ships and delivered about 216 of its type. The 777X program in the last four years sold 326 777-X's before its first delivery. 

A philosophy for the 777X program is that it has a  bigger market for people who need to get there in comfort at a lower price allowing them to spend their resources at the destination. The A-380 is selling the journey is better than what the destination offers. If flying from London to Hawaii and watching TV in Bed is a must, then the A-380 suite is for you. Boeing is betting more people will book a flight having substantial amenities exceeding those found on most other aircraft at a price most other people can afford.

Using an old American football metaphor, Boeing is dinking and dunking its way down the field with its array of wide body types and Airbus is throwing long on every down with its A-350's and A-380's. Boeing has a very good prevent defense.

The 767 Bridge to The 797

Rumors are running the gauntlet of conjecture regarding starting up the 767-300-ER line again. It was closed about three years ago and has since been relegated to freight and the military business endeavors.

The two proposals using the 767 and 797 models can be measured side by side in a theoretical look.

The 797 would beat the 767 in every category listed except maybe the long range distance which is yet to be determined in the theory model. The 797 will be lighter, faster and somewhat roomier than the 767-300ER. It will incorporate the latest Boeing 737 777, and 787 innovations. The to be determine column (TBD) of the 797 is an unknown quantity but Boeing can easily achieve an improvement over the 767 in every category. The only compelling reason  for buying the 767 at this time is a bigger deal is in the works. Buying a 767 now is an order for the 797 launch announcement later. The expected life of a new 767-300ER would be in the ten year range where the 797 would replace it, unit by unit at a preferred customer price. Not only would a new 767 order become very cheap it would lock in a low ball 797 price later. 

All this talk about a 767 order is really talk about acquiring a 797 fleet within the next ten years and United Airlines would be a prime launch customer for the 797 signaled by all this 767 talk.

Dubai and The Tip Of The Wing

So far the airshow is like an Iceberg. Ninety percent is underwater and only the tip is exposed. Egypt Air is in talks with with Boeing for a half dozen 787 before the show opening and Emirates is trying to squeeze Airbus out of some of its old A-380 ideas.

Boeing has a folding wing tip coming into the show which could make things miserable for Airbus' chance of more A-380 sales. Its been noticed by Winging It that as often as Airbus talks about A-380 prospects, it mentions how easily the A-380 is even fitting into regional airports?  Of course that reference could mean a desert airport with copious amounts of sand at the end of the runway. The only jet in the sight of view is the A-380 unloading at some glassed over building having bus service going to the next oasis near-by.

Tongue and cheek humor is the attempt at parking the A-380 in a regional airport and Airbus should know better than quoting how it fits-in everywhere! That is why Airbus is selling about two a year to its airline customers and it hopes for another fifty coming from Emirates at the November airshow. 

Source: Getty

Behind the scenes is not a spectator sport and Boeing is digging sand as fast as it sloughs back in during a sand storm. The expectation is some big announcement surprising the aviation world. Boeing hopes for a long delayed big order from Emirates, those same guys are in talks with Airbus for a new updated A-380 order. 

If Boeing were to win the day at Dubai, Emirates would have to change its business strategy away from the A-380 towards the 777X. However, a small observation shows it ordered 142 of the A-380 with 42 remaining on back order and it also has ordered 150 of the 777X from the last show in 2013. The big elephant in the room is the 777X and not the A-380 since it has already received 100 of the A-380.

So there should not have any additional 777X orders at this year's show. The only outlying is the 787-9 or  787-10. It could fill a Emirates fleet completeness with fifty ordered in a combination of the 787's. Its only speculation at this point and no rumor is floating on that matter. 

The show remains a mystery for orders where Boeing should pick up a sampling of wide body orders rather than having a domination of orders coming from one or two customers. The dark horse is the 737 Max family where a surprising number of the single aisle orders could come in as it is overdue for some more middle eastern love.

The concluding opinion, Dubai is an airshow and not a swap meet. The tradition of order announcements remain a mystery. The expectation of a large order announcement is confined to the life and death throws of the A-380. The show's crowing maybe moved out with an after show deal making spree until year's end since pre show talks are taking so long. 

The show is being used as leverage for making a best deal with a desperate Airbus next week. Boeing is moving behind the scenes hoping it can stay out of the sand trap. Boeing's 787 production is going to 14 a month signaling multiple deals are in the balance. 

Dubai could be a big reveal for why Boeing committed to 14 a month 787 production guidance last summer setting-up next year's output. 

Airline Reporter Dials UP The 777X

Airline Reporter is a read for those who know little about the Boeing program on its upcoming 777X family of aircraft. In brief, this primer obtained through the link above will inform about what the 777X will do. "It's the wing", making this a breakthrough aircraft.

Airline Reporter/Boeing Sketch.

Is The A-380 Too Big To Sell?

The A-380 idea is about 20 years old and has been flying for about twelve years. It used "The Field of Dreams" play book.  A delusion of grandeur unfolded for Airbus promising a break-even point at about four hundred copies in the first half dozen years. However, that day had to rely on some accounting trickery to get out of that promised mess. The airplane has yet to sell even three hundred of its type.

New sales for the A-380 transactions are more symbolic of a buy one get second one free campaign each year. One A-380 order in a year is a big deal. In 2005 it first flew. By 2020 the 777X will fly going farther for less money. In fact today's wide body aircraft can fly two different routes at the same time hauling more people in those different directions than a one direction A-380 behemoth. The 777X will put the A-380 to bed as it ages out of service in the next ten years.

The passenger fantasy for double decked luxuriant travel which is usually reserved for cruise ships does not apply to air travel. Even with 18 hour fights, showers become pointless as there are no balls to dance with even on an A-380. Or does vast amounts of foods exists as found on cruise ships. The travel idea is getting there for the play and not for playing while getting there. The Airbus concept was for each passenger having an exquisite travel experience among five hundred close strangers.

The 777X seeks to find a flexibility for travel rather than only having several dozen ports of call the A-380 has and it will go everywhere having hundreds of cities and countries to visit. Emirates has a definitive business plan for its A-380's but the world will not change fast enough to land its vast fleet of A-380's. The 777X will make airline money in chunks rather than in lumps as the A-380 proposes to do. The 777X must entertain its passengers up to 18 hrs where the A-380 must do the same. In order for the A-380 to do that it must slim down seat numbers while burning fuel on four older engine types.

The A-380 is rapidly becoming a profit boat anchor as it ages. Emirates will order more but after closer examination, that number  may drop from 50 newly ordered to only 20 reordered. The lower realization is for replacement models for its older (or first delivered) A-380's. The fleet expansion will come after the 777X models arrive and not for the A-380's reordered.

Reputation: The Sixth Plate Spinning For Boeing

The reputation element is the corrosive element which can tumble all the plates of an airplane manufacturer has in its arsenal of spinning plates. The metaphoric vision of a entertainer standing on stage has mastered a plate on one pole balanced only because it is spinning. The balance is much like riding a bicycle where the rider takes for granted they will not fall as long there is motion forward with its spinning wheels. The airplane builder also is riding a bicycle or spinning a plate for balance. In fact the airplane maker is spinning up to 6 plates at once for an encore which is more difficult by far than riding a bicycle.

The plates could be labeled with these sub groupings:

• Reputation
• Customer
• Innovation
• Performance
• Reliability
• Results

This list is not  complete but does represent key ingredients found in a successful airplane making business. All the things Boeing, may fall under its various headings. A pyramid could be built with these headings making "Reputation" the key stone at the top of the pyramid. While envisioning a new model like the 787, an observer can interrelate each item listed as a spinning plate. All plates must have an occasional twerk of the pole revving up its spin so it won't fall. A fall of one plate not only brings it down but brings down Reputation every time. Hence, Reputation is the top plate in the stack.

The interrelation of the stack can follow a path through the plates in a logical sequence. Reputation is built by its Customers confidence. Innovation is made for its Customer's sensibility while Performance indirectly serves its Customers and Reliability builds Customer dependency on the plate resulting in an airplane maker's Reputation. The stack of spinning plates receives the applause gained from Results.

Digging further, the R words are goals words. The "C.I.P." words modify the "R" words. A "Customer validates the airlines Reputation. If an airplane falls apart in flight from the way it is built, the airplane reputation fell from the stack and takes everything down becoming an unfortunate "done" deal. The customer refuses to fly on a faulty airplane, innovations didn't work and reliability is out the "Constellation's window" everything else in the pyramid doesn't matter once a reputation plate spins off the stick.

" Lockheed built a total of 856 Constellations (331 of these were for the military). An inordinate number were used to smuggle arms, aliens and drugs. More than one Connie has been anchored to the ground and used as a restaurant or cocktail lounge. General Dwight Eisenhower used a C-121A military variant as his personal craft, named "Columbine" and another after he became President, named "Columbine II". General Douglas MacArthur named his Connie the "Bataan". Connies were used extensively for spraying. They were used for secret snooping, with at least one being shot down by hostile gunfire. Constellations were used to carry thousands of tons of food to starving nations.

    

In the end, the Connie was brought down by the fast developing technology of the jet engine, and in particular the Boeing Model 707 jet airliner."

Innovation sneaks in at the end with the jet engine.

Back to Boeing's 6th plate, the 787 had early developmental mishaps with its battery, improperly assembled aircraft needing shims, and instances of fires during testing. The first thing includes  commercial operation. A hull loss would have ended this program by 2012. By 2017, Boeing has achieved over 600 787 deliveries and its orders appear to pop up every month during 2017. A hull loss is a show stopper for any maker or airline business. The 777 family lost two hulls during the last several years from military shoot down and a mysterious disappearance during its flight. Since no cause of loss have been attributed to the airplane maker, the 777 reputation remains intact. In fact one 777 crashed at at the end of San Francisco's airport with some loss of life while the remaining passengers could walk away from its tumbling during its crashing. The 777 was heralded as complete aircraft worthy of withstanding a crash of this type.

Boeing's reputation is selling its wide bodies during 2017. The innovation and results of the aircraft has built customer confidence enough that Boeing no longer has to spend resources on its reputation. It only has to keep executing in programs by keeping them on the rails without mishap. The performance is directed at the airline customer itself and the passenger indirectly where its reliability becomes a factor for sales and building successful business models for the any airline customers. 

Boeing 787 Numbers Happy Halloween (updated)

Tis the season for Boeing Candy and here are the Monthly 787 Production charts  10/31/2017.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

The 767 Resurrection

Leeham News seemed to have revealed a slip of the press notes when it said market Intel reports about deal is in the making for a huge 767 order of 50-60 for this old wide body.

"The company is in discussions for 50-60 aircraft, market intelligence indicates.

Boeing declined comment, saying it does not discuss conversations with customers."

Boeing Quips:

"We continue to feel very strong about the 767 production line. As you note, we just recently stepped up to 2.5 a month on that production line. ... The fact that we have a combined line that can serve the needs of our commercial and military customers is a unique strength of that line."

-- Muilenberg

The question remains can Boeing deliver for what a customer intends for its delivery pace?

There are many more questions in front of this idea needing answers but it may come before year's end in some sort of order gasp on Boeing's 2017 onslaught towards a banner year.

• Can Boeing Deliver it like it is a 787 in production?
• How low is a price low enough before an answer ends with sold?
• Who is talking to Boeing in the back rooms about the 767?
• What part of the world would a deal like this benefit, South America, Africa or China?
• How Many Airline companies does China have?
• How much cheaper is a 767 vs the A330?

The list price of a 767 300ER is $197 million where a 50% mark-down is $98 million.

The list price of an A-330-300 is $259 million where a 50% mark-down is $129 million.

There is a remark by an SA aviation analyst the price could be $70 million for each 767 in question.

Another Look At Boeing's Third Quarter Backlog

A formal new feature was almost forgotten. Bellow is the third quarter 2017 Boeing backlog in units and total dollar value. 

Thoughts "Qantas almost certainly won't order all 45 Boeing 787s" (ABT)

The Australian Business Traveler wrote about how Qantas may not pick up all its 45 787-9 options into the future. Qantas has changed since those heady days when when it was a Boeing order star in 2005. That was during the early introduction of the 787 program. Since then, things have changed. Qantas has become a stalwart bell-weather of airline control by its leader Alan Joyce.

The conservative approach has muffled high aspirations of its world dominance theme from Australia. Qantas had to make adjustments for getting its financial books in order before anything was changed. The existing fleet had to last until a corporate turn-around was achieved.

Qantas' conservative approach has done just that and it just has received  its first 787-9 from an option pool turned firm order of eight aircraft. Its option book only has 45 more aircraft it could turn into deliveries at a set price when buying aircraft and extras. The Australian Business Traveler says it may not happen. 

Winging It happens to agree with the article from a different perspective or from a different emphasis mentioned in the article. The standing option is just a starting point for this company twelve years later. A lot has changed since the initial deal with Boeing. Qantas flooded its off-shoot, Jet Star, with a fleet of 787-8's. It was a work-around for a beleaguered Qantas at the time. The Jet Star fleet performed as advertised and Qantas took note of the success. Jet Star's mission was not to step on the Qantas toes or try to become a world beater.

As mentioned before much has changed since those days. The 747 is no longer "needed", its retired. The world's aviation playing field has evolved. Many airlines now crisscross the skies Qantas had envision it would fill a dozen years ago. Australian travel requirements have also changed. New routes are coming into play from continent to continent that are specific to Australia and its paired continent.  

New aircraft development is on the horizon from its main aircraft provider, Boeing. The 797 is a NMA coming to the fore front and Australia is just the right size for a NMA. New Zealand and Indonesia is "next door". An NMA is made for an Australian domain going about 5,500 miles. The Australian Business Traveler is correct noticing Qantas would not take all 45 787-9's from an option position. The 787 option is a Qantas pile of poker chips needed for doing future deals in a changing market.

Qantas is the long haul provider and Jet Star would be a 797 candidate. Qantas will not need 45 787-9's unless world conditions change and competing airlines from China or the middle east slow down its purchase of 787's.

The poker chips can be parlayed into a mix order including 797's 787-9's and 787-10's. It can also rise in number of orders from 45 depending on the over arching objectives Qantas will have from mixing up its fleet. This is where a Winging It opinion works into this story.

Qantas/Jet Star may turn its 45 787-9 options into a 60 orders for a mix of 20 Jet Star 797's, 20 Qantas 787-9's and 20 Qantas 787-10's. Qantas will keep stacking its poker chips from its profits until Boeing announces the 797 program. The 787-9 and 787-10 programs aren't going anywhere soon so Qantas can wait for the 797 to be announced with Qantas being part of that fun in behalf of Jet Star.

The seat count of 250, 300 and 330 for each respective model and the ranges established would make Qantas a head to head competitor with SIA in the South East Asia quadrant. The capable ranges for each type mentioned of 5,500 (797), 9,500 (-9), and 6,500 (-10) miles respectively covers both Jet Star's and Qantas' needs. The source for fleet aligning comes from its old 787 options (45) still remaining around in the Qantas order books. In ten years this mix could evolve as all airline fleets need to evolve as it is capable of doing and Qantas has become a very capable airline.

Backlog A Chink In The Airbus Armour

Its been stated the sweet spot for a maker of popular air frames is for the one who can deliver within a airlines planning and expansion needs. It is therefore important not to make a customer wait more than five years for financial planning purposes. The outer limit for purchase risk is usually about five years. The backlog pole position becomes important to any major framer of popular airplane models.



A quick formula would be taking backlog and dividing by the optimal production pace per year. The Airbus guidance is 120 A-350's a year by 2018. Boeing will make 14 787 a month by 2018 or 168 units for the year. Using these expected productivity pacing of 10 and 14 units per month respectively, an expectation can be made how far out is the back log.

Airbus' 744 unit A-350 backlog with 120 units a year delivery pace  suggest a back log for newly placed orders at 6.2 years before its order book delivers a newly placed order.

Boeing's 683 unit 787 backlog with with a 168 unit delivery pace projected for 2018, only has a 4.0 year backlog which is easily within an airlines five year plan if it placed an order today. 

However, the backlog production position is a fluid and dynamic placement. There are airlines who delay or cancel an order. The backlog position may shift monthly opening up a build position sooner for  those needing a delivery quickly. That too becomes a separate airline risk of when it could expect a delivery if it finds itself at the back of the order line, and it needs its aircraft closer to front of the line.

The Airbus 6.2 year backlog as compared with the Boeing 4.0 year backlog gives Boeing more flexibility for giving its new orders a closer look at timely deliveries for its airline customer. Receiving an airplane after 6.2 years from an order date implies a greater risk is taken by an airline when it awaits its order for a longer period of time.

The chart below provides a glimpse of a customer's relative position if it ordered today it could expect more flexibility when buying the 787 respective to the A-350. This is a big incentive to order Boeing's 787.

Boeing is able to grow its backlog to 1,044 unit backlog and keep pace with the Airbus backlog of 744 units from a production perspective. At this time the customer could safely order the Boeing 787 up to 361 more units before it becomes even with Airbus backlog when comparing both framers production capability, since Boeing will produce 14 787 units to the Airbus guidance of 10 A-350 units per month.  

The Five Year Blogging Mark

I have said several times, I'm done with writing the blog. However, since I'm still "dabbling" with the blog, it is important to note it was five years ago, I started the first experimental posting seeing how this blog thing would work. In commemoration of the first test blog I am linking it to this first posting for posterity's sake.

October 17, 2012 (1,231 postings and counting)

British Airways Announce Start Of First 787 Construction

Here is the BA book today it has added the 787-10