Day 4 Paris, Is it a Order Wrap?

On day 4 of the Paris Airshow, the reporting has diluted the purchase classifications concerning purchases, MOU's and Commitments. The Winging It order listing may not even consider the Purchase-conversions of the 737-10 model. But Winging It has been following the airshow news as it occurs and is reported on the day, therefore later analysis shows a disparity from these charts to what others are now reporting.

Below is a day 4 recap for happened to Boeing at the show. It was considered a slow day but at any other airshow day, 125 Max 8's purchased would dominate the headlines. Over-all day 4 produce another 30 737-10's as on-paper orders.

Fig.1 Day 4 Boeing Transactions:

The below Figure 2. depicts a robust expected down year for Boeing's paper order book. A paper order is any firmed purchase, MOU (commitment) or conversion (from one model turning into another). Winging It listed a 97.3 billion paper shuffle for 836 units. 

Not all these units will turn to a firm purchase in the upcoming year(s). It is probable Winging It missed some sales classification where it missed 214 737-10 purchase conversions during the show.  Those 214 purchase-conversions were not always clearly reported and Winging It came up with only 50 737-10 purchase conversions. 

The press finally reported 147 direct 737-10 purchases, thus totaling about 358 737-10's in play for Boeing. That in itself is a good launch and will turn into further net orders going forward.  

Fig 2. Airshow summary to date:

Below in Figure 3, is the firm purchases for the 737-Max 10 as reported during the show. It is inaccurate since there are far more purchase-conversion than stated during the show. It has been reported that there are  214 purchase conversions for the Max 10 from prior Max orders already booked. 

Winging It shows only 50 of those types of transaction. Winging It must of missed 164 of those purchase-conversions and list them as a net purchase for that type. Apologies are offered if confused. Another item in Figure 2 shows 22 commitments for the Max family without assigning the type. This condition assumes a Max 8 when in fact there could be some Max 9 & 10's in that number, thus skewing the Winging it count. However, all-in-all, the 737-10 paper booked about 358-361 units.   

Reports now have been submitted revealing there were 147 firm 737-10 orders. Winging It shows 163 firmed purchases. Somewhere Winging It must of over reported this number by 16 units. This is due to reporting an order earlier when it may have been clarified as a MOU or commitment.

Fig.3 Purchase record as reported at the end of each day. Subject to reclassifying the document class

Figure 4 The Purchase Winging It Purchase-Conversion list for the 737 Max 10

The Boeing 797 Strategic Concept

Boeing has for many a year, in the last decade considered a middle of the market aircraft replacing its long beloved 757-767 aircraft line. The day it stopped building the 757 is the day "strategic planning" arose from Boeing's nomenclature. The strategic airplane would be built as an untouchable from its competitor. Long has the A321 become an Airbus sweet spot for orders. Boeing was too late to the market with a competitive product. Boeing has the 787 X's 3 to build and the 737 Max X's 4, coupled with the 777X X's 2 models in the game plan.

Strategic Points:

• Boeing needed a family of Aircraft First
• Boeing needed a technological quantum leap Second
• Finally, Boeing needed Airbus chasing its program rainbow 

The only thing in the way of Boeing starting its New Medium Aircraft (NMA) is program completion for an unleashing of its combined resources on a NMA program. The 777X is stopping an NMA try for Boeing. Resources have shifted to its 737-10, 777-8X and 777-9X programs. There is residual work to be done  on the Max 8 and Max 9 starting with production capability and its testing regimen. The 777X program starts in earnest next year. All this conflagration at Boeing R&D leaves the NMA program playing a guessing game with its Airbus competitor and Boeing's customers. 

Boeing must contend with strategic inputs for the NMA program such as telling its customers they will build a 220-270 seat aircraft going 5,200 miles. If Boeing's customers are given detailed information then Airbus will get the same detailed Boeing information. It takes five years from forming launch customers, on a clean sheet design, to first delivery. Airbus is certainly talking to prospective Boeing NMA launch customers for any details.

If Boeing lets the cat out of the bag too soon then it will be another 787-A350 dogfight. Boeing can shorten the time to market by developing a NMA on the "QT" for three years before launching/announcing at a "Show". 

NMA strategic plan:

• It needs to line up die hard Boeing customers using sketchy information.
• It needs to develop NMA technology and design from proven accomplishment from prior programs.
• It needs to complete the 737-10, 787-10 and 777X programs before launching the NMA.

Boeing can build a new medium airplane before launching while Airbus watches and looses ground against the clock on a shrewd Boeing move. This is the strategic importance coming from lessons learned both current and prior programs. Announcing early makes expectations wait far too long giving customers angst and the competition time for a rebuttal. 

Boeing needs to go secret with its aspirations while working with customers somewhat like Lockheed's "Skunk-Works". The 787 was announced clear back in 2003 with full details of what it would be made of and then Airbus complained it couldn't be done while forming its own composite A350 aircraft. Boeing came to Market in 2011 and Airbus answered in late 2015. The going-to-market time gap could of decreased with less Boeing fanfare from  2003 to 2011, if Boeing had announced the 787 in the year 2007 after it had completed a successful prototype. Doing so would have put Boeing ahead of Airbus by almost ten years. 

Instead Boeing announced often from 2003, the 787, for drumming up sales for what it proposed down the road thus causing customer angst from waiting and allowing its competitor a response during the interim period of time of announcement to its first delivery, after which Boeing fumbled through new technology and production issues.

The NMA approach seems to take some of those timing issues as Boeing is dodging detection of what it really is going to build while it begins a NMA program currently. 

• It will want a first delivery of its NMA within three years of announcing a launch. 
• The program will be already mature at the announcement time.
• All risks are retired before first assembly is completed except the flying testing.

The whole strategy is to lengthen any competitor response time to what Boeing has already shown to its die hard customers on paper. 

In order to do that, it will have to rely on what it has made before an NMA concept is approved. An all plastic body and wings become a quick solution on the production process. The design is an all new body fitting customers comfort first. The engine selection is based on reliable engine builders. The technology is off the Boeing shelf going forward. No new moon shots. Management plays for time allowing all this going on at the Boeing Skunk Works. Area 797 is activated for testing in Montana for secrecy. 

Just having fun by seeing how much falls into place from this idea and why Boeing stalls on the 797. 

Paris Day Three On The Fly

A settled in day for the Airshow. When all numbers are added and changes made, there will be a comparison with the Airbus order Tally. All numbers in charts are reported as posted by news organisations. 

However, some revision to order count and status will be updated when Boeing and Airbus reports at the beginning of next July month. Day 3 had 9.89 billion paper documents for Boeing aircraft under a purchasing intent. The "various" intents were lumped together on the Max 7 column. This will change once everything sorts out. However, 82 paper documented airplanes were tallied for Boeing's Day 3 count, which is significantly more than the Airbus Tally. 

The paper MOU or intents may turn into real orders by year's end. Airbus posted mostly orders and not many intent aircraft, but it still showed a decline in orders from the last Paris Airshow in 2015. The big item is the 737 Max 10 which will include many order book revisions when changing from a Max 8 order (example) posted earlier and turning it into a Max 10 order at the show. There is a significant revenue increase when a conversion is made going to the Max 10 from a prior ordered 737. 

The units may not change in these cases but dollar value does change significantly so the ultimate net unit book during the airshow will take until the end of month before numbers for Boeing are accurately counted.
  
Fig. 1 Day 3 Subtotal

Fig. 2 Show Total

Yikes, Boeing won the show on paper when it signed for over 624 single aisle in various stages of a deals. The list value is used for the calculation making $90.91 Billion for its paper sales. Look at the 737 Max -10 column for 326 units noting its an airplane not even built or tested. Impressive indeed, as most of the MOU units will turn into booked orders. What further analysis will bear out is how many 737 Max 10's feed from the prior order bookings of early Max units purchase from prior periods before the show. A surprising count is the number of Max -8 airshow orders committed.  The drain from conversions from Max pool going to the 737-Max -10 column is offset by new orders, MOU's and commitments from 297 units collected from the "other" Max columns not called 737Max-10, is a testament for the Boeing Single aisle program, obtaining a significant boost when chasing the Airbus order book. It will not catch the Airbus single aisle backlog at this time, but Boeing has closed a significant gap with Airbus' single aisle order book.

Airshow To date,  Boeing snagged 681 airplane units for all types. Whether all will make it to the Boeing book remains to be seen. It is an impression this is a strong marker to come for future orders in the single aisle area. The 328 737-10's asked for, could double in number by completion of year 3 from its launch at the Paris show, thus making the Boeing gamble a winning bet.

Paris Airshow, By Some Numbers Snapshot

A snapshot is a point in time frozen by some happening. The ever evolving changes at the Paris airshow makes it a moving target. The Winging It aim is often wild. Below is a composed picture of what was known at some time since this morning. A negative number suggests a transfer from a prior period order into a new Airshow order going from one model to another in a purchase announcement. 

Not all data is verified nor could it be accurate since so much is going on throughout the event. Various news sources often report in error as well and researching those articles becomes a difficult task. Exampled by unclear reports of 50 aircraft for 1.25 billion the editor misses the continuity of 50 aircraft going for 1.25 billion. There are errors in the news reporting often leading to confusing data.

Winging It doesn't know who is right and who is wrong with Airshow numbers, so it must wait until the show is done and follow company reports for orders books. Below is such a snapshot without airplane verification which will come later. Anyways, its an attempt to see Boeing's order footprint at the show where the numbers are mostly correct. What is missing are airplane order conversion numbers as prior orders for one model converted to another such as in the Max 737-8 going to a Max 737-10 order. 

This is where the primary problem of reporting accurate numbers for this show. The other problem is a definition of MOU vs Commitment and what does it really mean when considering who is buying what and when.

A "commitment" is probably a letter saying, "if we buy an airplane it will be a Boeing 737-Max-10 sometime. See SpiceJet and Lion Air commitments below for further analysis. They are Boeing customers but are not yet ready to put ink to paper until further notice until Boeing negotiations are complete. A commitment in this case is strong as a MOU. Some commitments could be pie in the sky notoriety at the show. 

An "MOU" is a memorandum which is a legally binding promise stating, "we will buy #nth 737-Max-10 during 2017 at the time final purchase contracts are signed". It's all grey water flowing through the show and bragging about what is going on is just bragging about the muddy drinking water.

A "purchase" is golden and in the books only to be backed out of through exchange of compensation along with the appropriate ensuing lawsuit. See the Qatar purchase as it is the end of a long commitment process after much consideration for its fleet composition, routes and airline purposes in a changing market. The 20 Max 8 started its order completion journey long ago from a commitment status.


I would expect all MOU's to turn into a purchase by year's end and the commitment will dangle until eternity or until the airline makes enough money to buy what it wants or needs. The purchase conclusion is gold in the bank. See the CDB MOU order below. it is a case of many moving parts considering converting from model to another, pricing and opportunity within a limited time frame. CDB MOU has set goals and objectives for completing the "deal" yet to be worked out but it is a go baring a financial meltdown. 

Below is the convoluted and inaccurate chart of the Boeing show from many unreliable news sources for which all claim reliability?

Boeing Aircraft numbers start of day 2

The negative number above represent a conversion from SpiceJet on the Max 8 column coming from converting 20 of the Max 8's into Max 10's. There are other conversions of this nature but not validated at this time. The values from converting have not been factored as of yet.

After all the disclaimers and apologies, Boeing has to date about 377 Boeing frames in purchase play for about 52.21 billion at list prices for which the remainder of the year will whittle down a majority of these MOU's and Commitments in to a purchase. 

Boeing should meet its guidance this year having already netted 208 frames for all types before the show. It has six more months and Dubai to meets its order guidance. A net number would include cancellations and conversions from the announced total announced during the Airshow.

Best Boeing Deal on Day 2 at Paris Airshow

Okay, the biggest deals are not always the most important deal. Okay Airlines from China, bought 15 more Max counting eight of the Max-10's and seven of the Max-8's. A parting shot leaving the Boeing pavilion had a "by-the-way" cause for five 787-9's  committed for future fleet expansion, but that won't count until contracted in full.

The reason it is the best deal today, because this exemplifies the world trade reach at the 2017 show. China showed-up and ordered which makes one ponder if more are to come from China this week as announced deals.

Boeing has employed a new marketing strategy over previous campaigns using the all-hands-on-deck mantra. This strategy is self evident when the Boeing Blog Master, Randy Tenseth goes under ground from writing any Boeing quips for over two months on his Journal found on Boeing.com. It feels like the marketing team efforts has paid off at Paris as Boeing is rolling up a formidable 355 sales and commitments on day one. The second day is already showing a trickle coming forward in an unrelenting pace. It won't match Monday but it will keep this years sales discussion going throughout the show.

Okay, so its day two and fifteen more Max's are unloaded onto the Boeing orders books. An early indication the marketing team is everywhere this year when so many single aisle orders for the Max-10 especially from India. Least we not forget United Airlines who expressed a strong interest in Boeing's latest 737 version could close the show with an announcement ordering 50 or so 737 Max 10's. Just saying, Okay?

Chinese Airline Okay Airways Orders 15 737 MAX Airplanes

So the Boeing Best Deal day 2 is from Okay Airlines from China. Okay!

Best Boeing Deal of The Day at Paris

Ever heard of Monarch Airlines? It acted on no impulse and filled an order for 15 Max 737's. The importance of this deal is not lost on Boeing strategist. This was once an Airbus customer and now it is a Boeing customer primarily ordering the Max for its operations in travel.

ATW quotes:

"UK leisure carrier Monarch Airlines has firmed options on a further 15 Boeing 737 MAX 8s, valued at $1.7 billion at current list prices, and signed a support joint venture with Boeing."

Monarch is transitioning from an Airbus to a Boeing fleet, which should be completed by the end of 2022.

“It is a rare transition to go entirely from one manufacturer to another and we are pleased with how it is moving. We already have NGs operating. We are very happy with our early sight of the aircraft and are in the process of getting them into the air. As a customer, it has been seamless,” Monarch CEO Andrew Swaffield said.

“The decision to exercise our option for an additional 15 737 MAX 8 aircraft is a clear illustration of confidence in Monarch’s future success.”

A rare but important aviation transaction when a customer switches out its fleet to another framer than what it had historically had done. With a prior 30 ordered Max 737's and now the 15 options firmed, Monarch has completed a goal of the initial signing order. Bragging rights here goes to Boeing. Even if no one has heard of "Monarch" its remains a major turn of events in the airplane wars. 

Malaysia Air Seeks A Low Price For A330 NEO's

Even though Malaysia Air has not decided on an Airbus A330 NEO it is reported that price is the sticking point. A break through deal is not depended on price alone but on a delivery schedule as well. Airbus can and is probably dropping its price offering in this case, but it may not be able to deliver on a timely basis for Malaysia Air's expansion and replacement plans. Boeing becomes the lady in waiting in this case.

Let's examine a Boeing chance at this order as it is named in aviation circles as a player for this deal. Leveraging a price is done by Boeing's room presence. Airbus does not want to lose this deal and is in the throes of a production start-up with its A330-NEO. It can and will move to a competitive production mode for this type of aircraft. Any delays would make the 787 an attractive alternative. 

Here is the fleet dichotomy of Malaysia's Fleet in Fig. 1 below: Available through Wikipedia data

A quick review of the fleet makes room for the 787 as it would bump out the A-330 NEO presence if Malaysia starts a fleet change with new aircraft. Boeing is still chasing the deal but has some talking points remaining. 

• Boeing has production slots available
• Higher Fuel prices match future efficiency needs
• Boeing Fleet presence completes Malaysia's commonality of operations from Max-Medium Wide Body. 

The current fleet of A330-300 could be replaced with either the 787-9 or 787-10 thus flipping Malaysia Air towards Boeing. If and only if Malaysia Air sees its fleet expansion moving towards longer than 6,000 mile routes. The 787-10 would slot into fleet renewal of current Malaysia Air's A330-300 (15) and then go further with the 787-9 as a fleet expansion move. 

Boeing would make room for either type in its production queue as it now approaches completing its 787-8 backlog and is well established with its 787-9 output. The 787-10 backlog sits at 149 and some of those orders may seek a further out delivery time than originally requested. It is a belief if Boeing can find production slots compliant with Malaysia Air's plans it may sweep away the Airbus order out from underneath them. Boeing would have to make a price case if it can, as much as Airbus needs, and Airbus is better positioned to do so with its A330 NEO proposal.

September 2017 is the projected deal closing with an Airbus deal by media sources. Boeing's outside shot could be aided by rising fuel prices. If Boeing makes a late genuine offer for placing wide body orders it would have to have other sweeteners such as a 797 offering as a launch customer.

EL AL signs for 16 787 Blunting A Late A350 Order Surge In May

Recently, Airbus booked 20 of its A350-9's from China Southern during May 2017. Now Boeing wraps up an El Al order yesterday for 16 of its 787-9's. Dueling order books before the Paris Airshow is very interesting as it suggests a very active order year in the wide body realm. Wide Bodies are not dead in 2017 as many have written-off.

Many more widebody orders will materialize out of the mist before year's end. Air shows may become more of an announcement speed bump as so many deals are in the works. I will suggest Boeing Market VP Randy Tinseth is so busy he has abandon writing on his "Randy's Journal Blog".  

His last commentary happened last April 7, 2017 (or it came from his staff). A typically timely blog seems to be too much when so much is happening in the airplane market place. 

Expect many steady orders until the end of the year like El Al's recently announced 16 wide body 787-9 and 8's just booked. This has been in the works since 2015. 

Many an observer is witnessing a real ordering dog fight between Airbus and Boeing, especially in the wide body arena. The Airshow venue maybe reserved for the single aisle battle between the NEO and the Max. 

EL AL purchases 16 Boeing Dreamliners !

All Things 787 Indicates 145 Processed During 2017

After looking at the All Things 787 charts there are listed 92 of Boeing's 787's for delivery during June - December of this year. After five plus months of delivery processing 53 of the 787 were delivered at a 10.6 a month pace. Currently there are 57 delivered through June 10, 2017. The charts also indicate ninety-two  787's should be completing the process by year's end from June 1. This will indicate a total of 145, 787 for the year (53+92= 145). Whether or not that quantity are received by its customers is a strict guess. This depends on the customers urgency, financial ability, and changing market conditions which could all contribute towards a delay on any delivery.

Boeing is positioned to meet guidance for about 138 units delivered during 2017 and it is feasible it could go long and reach beyond 140 of this type delivered during this year. Another observation is Boeing has blown by the Airbus A-350 backlog margin and continues to take orders in a wide body down year. The air shows are yet to come and it will be interesting to see everything shakes out during the Paris Air Show. Backlog is a function of Orders and Deliveries. Boeing having a lower 787 backlog while it has a strong production outflow gives Boeing opportunity to sell more 787 for relevant delivery in a corporation's timeline. However, taking more wide body orders over its competitor also increases financial strength which will reduce its 27 billion deferred cost money  pit.

If Boeing processes 92 from June 1- December 31 1017, it will maintain a build to completion pace of 13 of its 787 a month. This will be a increasing pace as the 787-10 matriculates itself into the production process.

From F-35 Fusion To Commercial Fusion Spins The B-797

The F-35 takes its flying super computer and puts it into function by melding together a complete picture of the battle airspace and use of its weapons. They call it fusion the in F-35 cockpit and its deadly for its adversaries.

Boeing is on the edge of its 20 year R&D march to the 797. Take lessons learned, proven new technology and emerging technology in small doses, then fuse them together into a 797. Boeing doesn't have to look over its shoulder spying Airbus and its NEO because they are stretching further than a New Engine Option a constant Airbus theme. Boeing is going to build something quick and sky shaking in the form of a 797. The fusion comes from its bag of proprietary tricks from engineering, marketing, and its supply bins.

Speculation becomes a currency for this topic. The long wait for a New Medium Aircraft (NMA) is closing with an announcement coming in the next 18 months. The 797 NMA naming is slotted into a hallow slot within the family of Boeing Aircraft. Fusing together Boeing success suggests it will take a road can't and won't follow. Its A321 will become obsolete and a new Airbus frame from the white paper process is ten years off while Boeing will have another five year head start. Ten years if  counting launch customer announcements. Boeing is farther down road than it would like Airbus to know in this case.

Much like the 787 with its revolutionary plastic and all electric concepts, the 797 will reach back and then reach forward within Boeing's objective constraints. After considering this, the 797 will be plastic with a different body. An engine build is up for grabs from three engine makers. A guess is CFM, GE, and Rolls. The engine must come early in the process as the frame formation must work in harmony with the engine mount.

Speculation on things already available:

• Extensive CFRP use.
• Ceramic engine components
• Laminar Flow Technology
• Core electrical architecture
• Big Windows

Speculation on things coming forward

• Elliptical Body
• Extended Range capability
• New Engine Technology
• Use of New CFRP processes using less autoclave application 

Proprietary Engineering comes from Boeing's back lot which even makes Walt Disney envious of his "Imagineering" world. However, today is spending speculation into reality which is a good occupation. Boeing at least is fusing its technology flying into the gap.

The 797 Passenger Experience Maybe A Boeing Egg

The 797 could be built on elliptical lines as depicted below in model "a". Standing at the front of the airplane and looking back is an elliptical cross section. The center line from A  port side to B starboard side would be at the seating passenger level. The ceiling crown could be about 8 Ft from floor to crown. Below the center horizontal line is luggage storage, ancillary freight and aircraft gear. 

Fig. 1 The  "Winging It" 797 MOM/proposed body cross section.

The final design would incorporate the appropriate width and height for the body. However, from this basic design theme would make passenger seating and space at a premium  for the experience. The stronger CFRP advantage will allow a plane framer to find the exact body strength from its width and elliptical height. Boeing has this on paper somewhere near Seattle, WA. Whether Boeing has a rabbit in its hat is hinted by higher-ups near microphones. An all new airplane that will skew the competition into a panic could come from everything 787 but built on an oval. Seat pitch would probably not improve over other models but a seven across seating arrangement could go 20" or more wide quite nicely with this configuration.

The penalty for the design is limiting freight space in the belly. The shape could increase lift (lifting body concept) without having any significant drag increase. Pair the design shape above with a taller landing gear allowing appropriate engine power could make this a world beater and tough to copy as Airbus is known to do.  

The other trick Boeing is working on is reducing weight with a dual aisle arrangement. The elliptical body may do this as its lighter than a 787 frame. The sketch above is exaggerated as to what an actual body cross section would look like as Boeing would push the side in by inches in proportion to the elliptical height as being more likely than this example. However, Boeing would like to find about 20 more inches across from a circle design. All of this enhances the passenger and flight experience for which many airlines are seeking. 

The Boeing doodling in the lab CAD computer can make a paper airplane that works well as the 787 did. All kinds of shapes and sizes are tested first at lab level and then it moves into a wind tunnel model for validation of flight characteristics from the CAD tinkering.

This could show up in Paris later this month but I doubt it. Paris will be all about the 737-10 announcement.

What Others Have Whispered About a Boeing MOM

Many blogs from Winging It have attempted to get its wings around Boeing's Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft. The refresher talking points about what Winging It thinks is simple (see points below)

• Its gotta go 5,000 miles
• It will be two aisle seven across seating
• Plastic wings and metal body
• Lower cabin pressure equaling the 787
• Down sized from big bodied engine offering

Now DNA from India enters the aviation rumble with its assessment:

"We have looked at the mild and we have looked at the wild and I can tell you we know that if you are going to address that market, you need a new airplane," Tinseth told Reuters after a two-day meeting of airline leaders in Mexico.

The clue is offered, "All New MOM" aircraft from Boeing.

DNA Reported Randy Tenseth:

"The two mid-market models, designed to carry about 220-260 passengers over 3,500 to 5,000 nautical miles (6,400-9,260 km), will also have a wing resembling the distinctive stiletto design of the 787 Dreamliner but with significant internal differences." 

DNA says; "Carbon composites allow manufacturers to make complex pieces in one shape and are well suited to the more elliptical design that Boeing has in mind for the new mid-market fuselage."

Winging It proposed an all metal body in earlier articles but the goal post have moved with technology and a conceptual elliptical plastic body, thus maintaining passenger space. Advances on a build with CFRP makes a case for a plastic body. Every day something new replaces something sort of new. A metal body in the single aisle to Middle of the Market aisle  dual aisle maybe too heavy for a all new MOM  as Boeing wants a template for follow-on design and metal is so yesterday. DNA points out weight and space are critical criteria for a MOM. It can't be too heavy or too narrow and it must fly 5,000 miles and DNA suggest a narrow under body with limited freight space.

Limited freight saves weight, an elliptical oval shape plays into better lift and drag coefficients for flying bodies having a narrower crown and bottom than waste line area. It is built for passenger travel and not everything or the kitchen sink goes into the belly as it will be built for the passenger. The main thing again is weight reduction and an elliptical plastic body achieves less weight, less drag for body width, and more passenger space at the same time. Hence 5,000 miles is its distance bench mark. 

A new frame from scratch allows for new and future engines without having a suffering of little space with ground limitations for which the 737 has for its engines. A taller landing gear gives the MOM the just right engine stance. A clue coming forward would be if a single source engine builder like a 737's talking points or dual engine maker from the 787 plan. If Boeing decides having multiple engine makers does not make the sale, it will go all out with one maker for the MOM. Hence a battle with CFM,GE, and Rolls. Winging IT places a wager on GE engines for the MOM.

What's new over the 787 or 777X? A slew of Boeing innovations accumulated over the last decade. Laminar flow characteristics on the body skin, potentially new CRFP process which eliminates autoclave and pressure treatments, and the possibility of an all electric architecture  similar to the 787. Weight reductions and efficiency will guide the the MOM into existence. Boeing will have an preponderance of "Off-Its Shelf" parts and engineering compliment going into the MOM. If Boeing has already sunk costs into R&D then use it if applicable. If a vendor has a better solution use it. Mentioning losing weight again becomes redundant but is the critical feature of the 5,000 mile MOM and that makes it viable in the world market place.

Will Paris Be A Narrow Body Show?

The up and coming airshow at the Paris Le Bourget Field may promise to be an exciting single aisle or narrow body show: The Boeing 737-10 awaits announcement with orders maybe from these South East aviation players.

Lion Air Could Help Launch 737-10

Maybe:

• Lion Air -100 units
• Spice Jet-75
• Jet Airways-50

All come from South East Asia and India. China has a stake at the Paris Airshow too and there maybe a surprise order at the show from the Chinese region. It will be difficult to speculate what will happen but it is important to note Boeing may carry the show with orders. Singapore may announce its intent for wide body orders with a final signing for 20 777X and 19 more of the 787-10's for its fleet. IF and if only these orders bare fruition during the show, Boeing will have billions in its column.

Airbus is not sitting still and is working harder to make a splash at the show. However, if Boeing captures half the single aisle tally it will add a preponderance of wide bodied aircraft over Airbus aspiration to its tally and fatten the 2017 order book.

Having an order coups over Airbus would definitely make an inroad into the Airbus Single Aisle lead of about 1,200 A-321 over the 400 737-9. A new Boeing model announcement may break the Airbus spell it has over the Single Aisle class.

  

May Summary 787 Reports

Boeing has produced and delivered 12 of its 787 during the month of May. The second half of the year promises to be more robust than the 53 of its 787 delivered. The end of June should rebound the Boeing Trend line when reaching for an estimated 135 of its 787 by year's end. Even though the production queue looks lean in number, it becomes a signal for how efficient the 787 program has become since 2011. Program maturity suggests if Boeing has about a thirty (see fig. 5) in its production line, it will produce and deliver about a dozen by months end where in May 2016 it may have forty-four in its production process while delivering only ten of its 787 by any months end. Boeing should exceed a twelve a month delivered for several months during the next seven months while the other five months during this period should deliver around twelve units (+/-) making for the approximate 135 unit year delivered. It needs about 12 a month (83) for seven months to reach 135-138 units delivered during 2017 and is positioned to do so.  

Fig. 1

The orders portion above is an estimation since Boeing has not officially posted its order book for May which would include West Jet's 10 unit 787 order.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Boeing Staff Meeting With Laser Pointer 10:00 AM

Yesterday some claims were made by Winging IT. The statement infers that in Airbus' first 884 days delivering its A-350 XWB, it delivered 84 units ending on May 24th 2017. 

The laser pointer is now going to spot the chart on what Winging It was trying to say to the world whom does not pay attention anyways. 

Boeing had its first 884 days of production and what does that look like compared with Airbus? Those who may argue the A-350 was a 787 knock off built on simpler lines of technology and that it should have surpassed Boeing in units after an initial 1,000 days of delivery production. Teething woes can see this graph and surmise.

Refer to the Chart:

Looking at the slope lines does not include units delivered after the first 884 days. Why that number in days? Because data is available for this comparison after Airbus delivered its 84th A-350-9 XWB  on May 24, 2017, during the Airbus 884th day of production. This came after its first A-350 delivery on December 22, 2014 making it a 884 day span of time. In fairness, Boeing also had a first 884 days of production complete with extensive teething woes such as the battery and fastener issues. A far more complex Boeing aircraft was attempted than Airbus could muster forth.

The news improves further when going past Boeing's-February 2014 884th day out from first delivery in September 2011. Boeing now can produce 12, 787 a month  when called upon. Airbus is pacing at about five or six a month, but will increase that number when possible. The great news is Boeing can extend the order book at this time without having its customers wait for aircraft too long of time rather than if  a customer placed an order with Airbus. They will wait longer than three years for delivery unless an early slot opens due to a cancellation. Boeing can now promise its customers a frame under five years time within that customer's five year financial planning model typically used by most all of industry.

The thirty period range represents approximately the first thirty months of production for each Boeing or Airbus WB type offered with the 787 and A-350 class of aircraft. It's time Boeing to take the gloves off the gloves and dominate further. 

Airbus Makes Wide Bodies After Four Years

So, Okay I'm not in the the camp of Airbus. Therefore, fairness becomes a relative proposition when analyzing what's going on in the world of largest airplane maker. Boeing Delivered its first 787 late in 2011. Airbus delivered its first at the end of 2014. Having that demographic in play it's better to break it down into months/days of production for each builder for the 787 or the A-350 making it a fair comparison in time.

Airbus delivered its first A350 during December 22, 2014 and its most recent and last delivery on May 20, 2017. This Airbus time frame is 884 days until its 80th was delivered. What did Boeing do in its first 884 days delivering its 787 compared with Airbus? This will measure how a much more advanced one competes with the other with its production maturity. Of course this will include Boeing's battery fire, fasteners issues, and myriad number of problems during the same number of days after its first delivery in September 2011. 

Here is that score card comparing the Airbus time span of deliveries made since its first on December 22, 2014.

Boeing's first 884 days ended on  February 25 2015 when it delivered its 122nd, 787's in the same span of time of the Airbus 884 days of time, after which Airbus who built a less technologically complex A-350; did not suffer any technological leap hiccups from its using of untried innovations. But has only achieved 84 of its type delivered in the same number of days as Boeing. Here are the Year By Year delivery record of Airbus from the unofficial website, XWB Production List.

  

If any errors are included they will be minor in nature and will not materially contribute with the comparison.

Click Inside Each Chart To See Better Image When Using Windows.

Airbus 2014 A-350 Delivered:

Airbus 2015 A-350 Delivered:

Airbus 2016 A-350 Delivered:

Airbus 2017 A-350 Delivered

Where is Boeing's WB Going In 2017

Boeing has a defining 2017 year. More for how it will preform against Airbus wide bodied orders than number produced. In a declared "down order year" and all things being equal, a relative good order year is beating Airbus with wide body bookings becomes a signature year. Both builders have had a substantial amount time into the market and into its production. Boeing has maintained its lead over Airbus in this division with its 787 booking 1.46 units for  every One A-350 sold. In fact if considering the 777X project, Boeing has expanded that margin of wide body sales over Airbus.

During 2017, Airbus has booked 14 wide bodies  through April including both the A-330, A-350 and Zero for the A-380 orders. Boeing had booked 39 wide bodies during the same time frame. This would include the; 747, 767, 777, and 787 frames.

Not included in this Boeing total is May's already noted 10 West Jet order for 787-9's  and Singapore's LOI for 20 777 and 19 787-10's. There are talks going on at this time with Hainan for more 787-9's which if announced before year's end would make for a respectable Boeing Wide Body order book for 2017. Are there more Boeing surprises remaining in 2017?  Only the 2017 Airshows know for sure. Airbus has little chance in catching Boeing this year for wide body orders which will help Boeing's over-all book balance comparing with Airbus. The prize is both the greatest number produced or orders booked during any given year. This year Boeing has an opportunity for both winning the production and order battle over Airbus.

The key for this assumption is if "other" deals are resolved that have been lost in the recent print history of whom is doing what with orders. A Boeing optimal year (hoped for) is for 100 wide bodies ordered for all its type mentioned above. The minimalist would see Boeing only about 60 wide body orders booked.

However, Airbus needs a rabbit ups it sleeve to catch Boeing for Wide Body orders. Its April ending number of 14 includes the A-330 which is a fleet replacement or a market entry option to the A-350. The optimist sees an Airbus fifty to sixty wide bodies ordered with 20 more A-350's and two dozen more A-330's in the mix. Airbus pessimistic outlook is for a collapse of its wide body order book having only 30 ordered during 2017. 

Common sense always gives way to somewhere in between. The Boeing Order Book midpoint sits at 80 wide body ordered (100-60) and the Airbus midpoint 2017 order book sits at 45 units ordered (60-30).

The China Syndrome Melts Boeing To The Core

In order to build a Chinese market, many incentives have gone the Asian way. An assembly center having both mega builders participating so it may sell immediate products to the mainland Chinese. Shared technology when using inexpensive Chinese resources for R&D and access to the world's markets from these exchanges. However, the goal comes from its government, whom will in every manner possible isolate itself from everything beyond its boarder while consuming everything beyond its boarder at the same time.

Its goal is a world aviation player at the expense of everything offered around the globe. Tens of thousands of its people work every day for finding out how to build an F-35, 787 and a Max 737. The latest foray into high tech endeavor comes from the recent test flight of its C919 single aisle. The common denominator for all flying programs is the engines. China would like to know how GE developed its engine. China may reverse engineer a World product but can it start with a white paper product and move it to the real world market?

China is about to step up and out from its Russian engine mentors and go long with its own rendition of a RR or GE version of engine. These non Chinese makers have been pouring everything they have known about engines into its latest version of maximum thrust and lean burn configured engines. These engine makers have already put on its own electronic drawing board many experienced gained ideas and further refinements. This type of advancing can not be copied by the Chinese at this time or reverse engineered. China will have to demonstrate it can do this in ten years by what the others have done in the last seventy years from advanced engine building.

China has rooms full of engineers working the problem but doesn't have billions of flight hours at its back. It may conceivably rattle the cages of both Boeing and Airbus but it will lay-up short for the next 30 years from where the giant engine builders are today, and where it continues forward. China can and will make dramatic strides forward using available off the shelf advances but having successful innovation is the missing link for all its aspirations for being world’s largest airplane builder. If that goal is reached it will be from a base of isolation and not inclusion. Nationalistic Pride dictates it will build and others will have to wait and wait until given access to China's promise of inclusion.

The above paragraph is one dim outlook towards a three way airplane dominance. Having one private and one co-sharing private with government will compete with one Government directed Chinese maker. It will be an interesting world where the market place may begin to isolate itself from one another out of survival. The only way forward will be a free market place and not an isolated market place. Engine makers will sell to the Chinese maker while the Chinese strive to reverse engineer but can't quite come clean sheet in its forward attempts. The value of experience is forgotten in this case which can't be stolen.

May Is Busting out With 787's Orders

The Boeing score card for the year is at almost a one to one book to bill ratio for its 787 family and it goes farther than the 787. Here are the dynamic order additions so far in May 2017.

·      May 2, 2017 West jet orders 10 787-9s

·      May 22 2017 Hainan announces for 6, 787-8 and 13 more 787-9's

·      January through April various customers order 13 787-9's. The total book for 2017 is 36 787's booked.

But if including the Singapore LOI order, it adds another 19 of Boeing's 787-10's making the 787 order going up to 55 of its WB type in play. 

So far Boeing has built 49 of its 787 for YTD numbers. Taking into account the Singapore Air LOI quantity, which Boeing has high confidence the order will be finalized by years end, a theoretical Book to Bill would exceed the preferred ratio of one to one. At this time, Boeing would sit at with a BB 787 rate of 1.12 as it contemplates moving production up to 14 787 next year.

Looking at the remaining 7.5 months of 2017 leaves Boeing some calendar and airshow opportunity. If Boeing can make a significant deals it will make the year for the wide bodies. Singapore air signed for its promised LOI for 20 777-9X's. This too is expected by years end for a formal booking. Without even thinking about Boeing's-Emirates hanging order chad, Boeing will have establish itself a solid year, which should eclipse Airbus wide body efforts.

Trudeau: "Don't cut off your nose to spite your face" Policy

A reckless game of chicken is played with Boeing on one hand and Canada on the other hand. Trudeau, Ca. PM canceled the Lockheed Martin F-35, then he talked Boeing into submitting a plan for its new and advanced CA-18's in an interim replacement plan for its aging CF-18 "Old" Hornets. Then Boeing vigorously came out from its commercial arm objecting to the Canadian Government involvement supporting its Bombardier scheme when entering into the commercial US aviation markets.

Boeing's objection caused a Canadian response which threatens both the Canadian defensive air shield and the Boeing-CA-18 Hornet deal. All assumed Canada has studied the situation before jumping at a rebuke of Boeing's defense division. It has progressed to a point where Canada must go elsewhere for fleet renewal for its fighter aircraft if it maintains a staunch position. A Euro deal would cause a tremendous retooling of its air command with using Typhoons or other such European fighter aircraft. A move like that would keep Canada compliant with NATO while snubbing American War Complex it had committed to earlier on in this decade.

Trudeau is windmill tilting at this point in his quixotic gesture towards both Boeing and Lockheed at the same time.

What will happen is a guess but here is that guess. Canada wants a lower F-35 price and by delaying Boeing it may get the price it needs. Using the threat of going elsewhere for a military fleet renewal gives Canada leverage with both of the two American manufacturers. The US government will step in with two options for Canada. One buy an American fighter or two go fish in Europe while the US reduces its military investments with Canada. Trudeau will have to choose, once the gauntlet is thrown down. The F-35 has ample orders already and it doesn't need a Canadian deal anyways. If Canada were attacked the US would come with its F-35's anyways defending North America so thinks Trudeau. 

However, this assumption maybe flawed where the US would come en mass with its F-35's. A very large bill would be attached for any American/Canadian defensive actions. Trudeau is over playing his hand and Trump may call him out on his gamesmanship. Any call out harms the relationship between the two nations. The guess comes full circle with face saving moves. Trudeau got elected because he stood up and now he is drifting towards a Canadian calamity because he can't back down and buy the F-35. The US has to make an offer he can't refuse. Things change and his first stance no longer applies as the F-35 program has morphed itself into a Canadian compliant deal. What he ran on no longer applies. A Boeing deal is a stop gap order supporting its aging fleet. The US will have to help Canada assimilate the F-35 program as if it were an extended wing of the North American defense pact. Canada wants more than just buying into the F-35, it wants the whole tamale.