The 767 Resurrection

Leeham News seemed to have revealed a slip of the press notes when it said market Intel reports about deal is in the making for a huge 767 order of 50-60 for this old wide body.

"The company is in discussions for 50-60 aircraft, market intelligence indicates.

Boeing declined comment, saying it does not discuss conversations with customers."

Boeing Quips:

"We continue to feel very strong about the 767 production line. As you note, we just recently stepped up to 2.5 a month on that production line. ... The fact that we have a combined line that can serve the needs of our commercial and military customers is a unique strength of that line."

-- Muilenberg

The question remains can Boeing deliver for what a customer intends for its delivery pace?

There are many more questions in front of this idea needing answers but it may come before year's end in some sort of order gasp on Boeing's 2017 onslaught towards a banner year.

• Can Boeing Deliver it like it is a 787 in production?
• How low is a price low enough before an answer ends with sold?
• Who is talking to Boeing in the back rooms about the 767?
• What part of the world would a deal like this benefit, South America, Africa or China?
• How Many Airline companies does China have?
• How much cheaper is a 767 vs the A330?

The list price of a 767 300ER is $197 million where a 50% mark-down is $98 million.

The list price of an A-330-300 is $259 million where a 50% mark-down is $129 million.

There is a remark by an SA aviation analyst the price could be $70 million for each 767 in question.

Another Look At Boeing's Third Quarter Backlog

A formal new feature was almost forgotten. Bellow is the third quarter 2017 Boeing backlog in units and total dollar value. 

Thoughts "Qantas almost certainly won't order all 45 Boeing 787s" (ABT)

The Australian Business Traveler wrote about how Qantas may not pick up all its 45 787-9 options into the future. Qantas has changed since those heady days when when it was a Boeing order star in 2005. That was during the early introduction of the 787 program. Since then, things have changed. Qantas has become a stalwart bell-weather of airline control by its leader Alan Joyce.

The conservative approach has muffled high aspirations of its world dominance theme from Australia. Qantas had to make adjustments for getting its financial books in order before anything was changed. The existing fleet had to last until a corporate turn-around was achieved.

Qantas' conservative approach has done just that and it just has received  its first 787-9 from an option pool turned firm order of eight aircraft. Its option book only has 45 more aircraft it could turn into deliveries at a set price when buying aircraft and extras. The Australian Business Traveler says it may not happen. 

Winging It happens to agree with the article from a different perspective or from a different emphasis mentioned in the article. The standing option is just a starting point for this company twelve years later. A lot has changed since the initial deal with Boeing. Qantas flooded its off-shoot, Jet Star, with a fleet of 787-8's. It was a work-around for a beleaguered Qantas at the time. The Jet Star fleet performed as advertised and Qantas took note of the success. Jet Star's mission was not to step on the Qantas toes or try to become a world beater.

As mentioned before much has changed since those days. The 747 is no longer "needed", its retired. The world's aviation playing field has evolved. Many airlines now crisscross the skies Qantas had envision it would fill a dozen years ago. Australian travel requirements have also changed. New routes are coming into play from continent to continent that are specific to Australia and its paired continent.  

New aircraft development is on the horizon from its main aircraft provider, Boeing. The 797 is a NMA coming to the fore front and Australia is just the right size for a NMA. New Zealand and Indonesia is "next door". An NMA is made for an Australian domain going about 5,500 miles. The Australian Business Traveler is correct noticing Qantas would not take all 45 787-9's from an option position. The 787 option is a Qantas pile of poker chips needed for doing future deals in a changing market.

Qantas is the long haul provider and Jet Star would be a 797 candidate. Qantas will not need 45 787-9's unless world conditions change and competing airlines from China or the middle east slow down its purchase of 787's.

The poker chips can be parlayed into a mix order including 797's 787-9's and 787-10's. It can also rise in number of orders from 45 depending on the over arching objectives Qantas will have from mixing up its fleet. This is where a Winging It opinion works into this story.

Qantas/Jet Star may turn its 45 787-9 options into a 60 orders for a mix of 20 Jet Star 797's, 20 Qantas 787-9's and 20 Qantas 787-10's. Qantas will keep stacking its poker chips from its profits until Boeing announces the 797 program. The 787-9 and 787-10 programs aren't going anywhere soon so Qantas can wait for the 797 to be announced with Qantas being part of that fun in behalf of Jet Star.

The seat count of 250, 300 and 330 for each respective model and the ranges established would make Qantas a head to head competitor with SIA in the South East Asia quadrant. The capable ranges for each type mentioned of 5,500 (797), 9,500 (-9), and 6,500 (-10) miles respectively covers both Jet Star's and Qantas' needs. The source for fleet aligning comes from its old 787 options (45) still remaining around in the Qantas order books. In ten years this mix could evolve as all airline fleets need to evolve as it is capable of doing and Qantas has become a very capable airline.

Backlog A Chink In The Airbus Armour

Its been stated the sweet spot for a maker of popular air frames is for the one who can deliver within a airlines planning and expansion needs. It is therefore important not to make a customer wait more than five years for financial planning purposes. The outer limit for purchase risk is usually about five years. The backlog pole position becomes important to any major framer of popular airplane models.



A quick formula would be taking backlog and dividing by the optimal production pace per year. The Airbus guidance is 120 A-350's a year by 2018. Boeing will make 14 787 a month by 2018 or 168 units for the year. Using these expected productivity pacing of 10 and 14 units per month respectively, an expectation can be made how far out is the back log.

Airbus' 744 unit A-350 backlog with 120 units a year delivery pace  suggest a back log for newly placed orders at 6.2 years before its order book delivers a newly placed order.

Boeing's 683 unit 787 backlog with with a 168 unit delivery pace projected for 2018, only has a 4.0 year backlog which is easily within an airlines five year plan if it placed an order today. 

However, the backlog production position is a fluid and dynamic placement. There are airlines who delay or cancel an order. The backlog position may shift monthly opening up a build position sooner for  those needing a delivery quickly. That too becomes a separate airline risk of when it could expect a delivery if it finds itself at the back of the order line, and it needs its aircraft closer to front of the line.

The Airbus 6.2 year backlog as compared with the Boeing 4.0 year backlog gives Boeing more flexibility for giving its new orders a closer look at timely deliveries for its airline customer. Receiving an airplane after 6.2 years from an order date implies a greater risk is taken by an airline when it awaits its order for a longer period of time.

The chart below provides a glimpse of a customer's relative position if it ordered today it could expect more flexibility when buying the 787 respective to the A-350. This is a big incentive to order Boeing's 787.

Boeing is able to grow its backlog to 1,044 unit backlog and keep pace with the Airbus backlog of 744 units from a production perspective. At this time the customer could safely order the Boeing 787 up to 361 more units before it becomes even with Airbus backlog when comparing both framers production capability, since Boeing will produce 14 787 units to the Airbus guidance of 10 A-350 units per month.  

The Five Year Blogging Mark

I have said several times, I'm done with writing the blog. However, since I'm still "dabbling" with the blog, it is important to note it was five years ago, I started the first experimental posting seeing how this blog thing would work. In commemoration of the first test blog I am linking it to this first posting for posterity's sake.

October 17, 2012 (1,231 postings and counting)

British Airways Announce Start Of First 787 Construction

Here is the BA book today it has added the 787-10

The F-35 Sustainment In Question

There are about 250 F-35's in use at this time and one operational component for the F-35 is sustainment. The aircraft not unlike an automobile needs parts after so many hours of operation but it is not as simple as oil, spark plugs and a new starter. Things break while under operational flying. The aircraft is grounded until parts arrive. The DoD has estimated 22% of the 250 flying copies are grounded while awaiting maintenance supplies such as a new part or scheduled maintenance service.



The problem will increase as the F-35 fleet increases and Lockheed is about to expand production by at least two fold. Expect the F-35 fleet to double when Lockheed goes to full rate production. In two years Lockheed could deliver another 250 F-35's before a request for proposal bid for spare parts can even be issued, let alone having parts made and delivered to the arm forces. 

A prime problem are for aircraft going to sea. All support parts must be carried on the vessel when deployed at sea or otherwise the F-35B or F-35C is parked in the hanger deck awaiting maintenance parts and supplies until after a ship returns from deployment. Not a good outlook for the F-35 in combat.

Maybe, a 22 % grounding of aircraft is a typical expectation in an over-all fleet of aircraft. The US hopes to rotate a significant number of F-35's as needed when one becomes inoperable due to maintenance headaches. However, not having a reserve fleet of aircraft complicates the early delivery of F-35's in the deployment front as so few F-35's are available and are flyable. There is no reserve as the F-35 goes over seas and it has no readily available parts all the time. It becomes a hit and miss condition for supporting combat ready F-35's.

It could be said, that a 40% grounding makes a combat crises when depending on its front line fighter capability. It takes years for the bureaucracy to field parts sufficiently for a full operational F-35 capability.  

The problem arises for all new aircraft types as it is deployed. The military does not know what to plan for until a history of wear and tear is established under its routine of full operation. The forecast for maintenance is just being established as years of testing is showing what breaks and what wears out on the F-35's first. The Full Operational Capability (FOC) can only be evaluated after the F-35 has been in the field for multiple years. It takes another multiple of years to schedule maintenance parts and supplies for the level of FOC it will achieve. There is a gap in the feeding chain for full F-35 maintenance sustainment.

Planners saw this coming a long time ago but where helpless to do anything about it until the US Congress will fund the maintenance portion as it awaits the aircraft deployment to its missions and then it could identify costs. This is another rough patch for the F-35 for what it will encounter over the next five years as it establishes its maintenance requirements from broken or used up parts during the course of its FOC.

So Far Boeing Nets 47 Orders In October

Boeing just booked 30 737 Max and 10 777's from an unidentified customer. The month of October  in a pre Dubai Airshow position had a robust order month. In all there were 5-787's, 30-737-8's and 10-777's. The icing on the cake were two more C-40 Clippers totaling 47 aircraft. Additionally, there was a transfer of orders from 16 737-8  NG's to 16 737 Max 8's. The dollar value of orders list price totals $8.5 billion. 

The price value adjustment relates to 16 737 NG 8's converted to 16 Max 8's. The net value change is $.23 Billion. This calculation is in the fifth column going right. A monthly recap only indicates the active purchase results for October and no purchase projections can be assumed or inferred.

However, it is an assumption when the month prior to the Dubai Airshow where Boeing has such a robust order book; it should expect a solid order book for November and  expect more orders during December when Boeing wraps-up its many order intents (LOI/MOU) as it can.

Boeing Order Update 10-26

Boeing reached 538 net orders for its YTD numbers. The gross order count stands at 621 units. The Singapore WB order is included in this count. An addition of 40 unidentified orders were booked including 30 737's and 10 777's. Boeing continues to outpace Airbus this year for orders booked for all types of airplanes. An end of October the subtotal for both Airplane builders should reveal how much Boeing orders are ahead of Airbus with only two months remaining in 2017.

The NMA May Come From The 767-400 Configuration (added information)

Boeing is refusing to commit for building a new NMA 797. However, it does own the 767 where it could borrow from that program with many features. Below is  767-400 seating options in pictures which falls into a 250 seat range and could be used as a base line for the 797 proposal.

767-400 program sketches 

The problem with the 767-400 is its maximum take-off weight (401,000) and its prior generation engines hung on the wings. It is not as efficient as the A-330-900 NEO. The 797 would solve that problem immediately with a carbon fiber body, wings and new GE 787 like engines hung on its wings. This is what Boeing could be waiting for is a breakthrough development for a NMA engine.

The maximum take-off weight for a NMA may come in significantly lighter for its dimension when compared with the 767-400, but the lighter weight would allow for more fuel for an extended range rendition of the NMA proposal. Boeing would stick with a 5,500 mile aircraft but it then could have a 6,500 miles extended range version. 

The technology is ripe for a complete 767 passenger replacement(797), leaving the commercial freighter and military tanker versions keeping the 767's original design features for metal aircraft.

MRO Quote: 

"The experience gleaned from the Boeing 777 spotlights the durability leap that composites offer. The 777’s composite vertical fin requires about 35% fewer scheduled maintenance hours than the 767’s aluminum fin, despite being 25% larger. This leap is why 787 air frame maintenance costs are projected to be about 45% lower than those of the 767-300ER, Boeing’s calculations show."

The whole of the MRO article frequently uses the 767 as the backdrop for the 777X improvements. Boeing maybe doing another "mini" moonshot with a 797 using all things learned from these three programs. The programs would include, 737 Max, 787, and 777X. 

The NMA market could be larger than reported for Boeing, since it would fill an exclusive slot in the proverbial "Gap" found in the commercial aviation market place. Boeing reported about a 5,000 aircraft demand in the NMA "Gap". Not all would be future Boeing orders but it could capture 70%of the market if it gets it right at first delivery. This number using 70% comprises 3,500 aircraft sales from Boeing's estimate of a 5,000 segment potential. 

A sliding percentage potential indicates risk would be low for a new start-up model before the competitors catch on to this concept for a NMA type.

• 100% market share for the NMA is 5,000 units
• 90% market share for the NMA is 4,500 units
• 80% market share for the NMA is 4,000 units
• 70% market share for the NMA is 3,500 units
• 60% market share for the NMA is 3,000 units
• 50% market share for the NMA is 2,500 units

Boeing could prosper with a 2,500 unit market for a new start-up aircraft type and its sunk costs over the next 20 years.

The 767-400 Specifications

  

A NMA would beat all the key performance indices of the 767-400 easily once it uses new wings, body, and engines. It could also be eligible for Laminar Flow Technology which is missing on the metal single aisle aircraft and the 787-8. All the lessons learned and paid for would make this an exceptional aircraft.

The complete book of proven innovations would be included on any NMA beating the current 767 models in service. The NMA would borrow the 15'+ across in the passenger area noted by the 767 air frame.

The market appeal should abandon any reference to the 767 model, since it represents old technology and the 797 remains as the primary available number for a new model type. 

However, the point here, is making a recommendation for a replacement for both the 757 and 767 class of travel at the same time. Boeing should introduce a 797-8 replacing the 757 and a 797-9 replacing the 767-300-ER . It has the configuration formula needed from the 767 program and the efficiency technology from the 787 program. 

The Singapore Airline Deal Is Much More Than Just A 39 Wide Body Backlog

Singapore Airlines made a ceremonial signing for 20 777-9X's and 19 787-10's. The long held Boeing customer reaffirmed its relationship as a important Boeing customer. This order, long anticipated, and is an already booked Boeing order last summer changed the aviation world as the balance of aviation power shifted towards Boeing. The mega airplane builder needed a symbolic order that established it as the premier maker in the industry. The "other guy" wasn't even close in this particular order battle. Airbus shallow depth of models exposed itself in the order competition.

Boeing and Airbus gave it its all during the order process. Both knowing the winner of this competition would take home the airplane of the year trophy. Before the 787-10 is even delivered the pundits have recognized it to be the most efficient airplane at every level of operation when comparing seat/mile cost with everything else. The only show item missing is its distance doesn't fly around the world or at least half way round the world. The 787-10 wasn't designed for extra long distance routes. It was designed for serving the most passengers going to the most places in the world at the lowest costs for the airline. If an airplane can serve 90% of the world's origin-destinations pairings, then it has a bright future. The 787-10 is more than a star in this segment. It is an undaunted example of scaling up success.

The customer, Singapore has now booked 49 examples of the 787-10. A quick look at the globe and Singapore's position on the world indicates the Airline desires dominance in a 6,000 mile circle from its home base.

Airbus was competing with Boeing on this order since it already had a substantial  part of Singapore's fleet. It has 22 A-330, 18 A-350 and 19 A-380's in its fleet. The back order for Singapore stands at 49 A350-900's and 5 A-380's. The A-380 order is teetering, as it has already returned some of its leased A-380 aircraft.  The airbus fleet count of 59 with an order count suggests the 22 A-330 will be retired leaving the Singapore fleet with just A-350's and its A-380's varying in numbers and having the back-order of 49 A350-900's replacing the fleet as needed.

Boeing has 52 wide bodies in the fleet. Twenty-five of the 777-200's will be retired by the A350-900's. Boeing also has 27 777-300-ER's. Therefore it can be assumed they will stay and will be rotated out over time going forward. The order combination of 20 777-9X and 49 787-10's will give Singapore  Airlines 69 wide bodies coming in while replacing its Boeing and Airbus aircraft already aging in the fleet.

An expectation is that the 20 777-9X will replace the A380 as they age in the next ten years. The 49 787-10's will replace the balance of the Boeing 777-300-ER fleet as it also retires. Bottom line, what was once a 50/50 fleet from two makers suggests Boeing in the next ten years will dominate Singapore Airlines fleet. There could be an additional follow on order within 5 years depending how the 777-9X works out while in service.  The 777-9X will outperform the Airbus fleet and the 787-10's will fit better with Singapore's routes than the A350-900 since the 787 will be more efficient per seat/mile under 6,500 miles. The A350-900 has too much distance performance for a majority of Singapore Airline needs.