The World's Biggest Builder, Airbus or Boeing?

The information may mark a plummeting of orders taken for the mega aircraft builders during 2017. However, it should not mark a declining production pace for the current year 2017. These numerical relationships will lead to conclusions about the long term health’s of the two manufacturers in the world market place. The place to start on this endeavor is the definitions about the charts below

• Backlog: The number of Units on order but not delivered since beginning.

• Year To Date: Current point in time of year summing totals occurring since first of same year.

• Book: Airplanes Ordered YTD

• Bill: Airplanes delivered for money is billed and received YTD

• Book to Bill Ratio (BB): For airplanes ordered are divided by airplanes delivered, in units and value. The constant pace objective is for a 1/1 ratio. Any BB rate under “1” suggest a shrinking backlog. Any book to bill rate above “1” indicates a growing backlog.

• List Price: The catalog price without any deductions applied from its transaction agreements. Usually the actual sale price is about 40% to 50% under its respective list price. However, the charts below only assumes the published list price valuations by the manufacturer for every aircraft ordered or delivered.

Fig.1 Summary Report Please read guide below Fig. 9 charts for explanations.

Fig 2. Boeing Single Aisle Orders

Fig. 3 Wide Body Orders Reported

Fig. 4 Boeing Single Aisle Delivered as reported

Fig. 5 Boeing Wide Bodies Delivered as reported

Fig. 6 Airbus Single Aisle Orders

Fig. 7 Airbus Wide Body Orders

Fig. 8 Airbus Single Aisle Delivered

Fig. 9  Airbus Wide Body Delivered

Disclaimer and qualification about the data:

Boeing has the lead as the World’s Largest Airplane producer at this point in time during 2017. Investors may want to examine this “as is” data and a general guide. The manufacturing performance and future potential requires a more exacting analysis. A more critical and detailed accounting can be obtained from the respective company’s financial records having complimentary annotations containing exceptions and notations for every of its account status. Therefore, this summary is not intended for financial investment advice nor is it intended as a guidance for any future stock investment. It is only intended as a general snapshot of comparative data with its historical backlog and current year to date information provided by each manufacturer’s websites.  

What is Known:

As a starting point for this year’s charts, the backlog on January 1, 2017 is the beginning number using all aircraft orders and deliveries from its beginning. Boeing Backlog is 5,695 units and Airbus Backlog is 6,836 units. It is important to understand that during the prior years, each manufacturer has written-off some unfilled orders as programs expire or the models are no longer required due to advances and replacement models such as the original 737 is replaced by the 737 Max and some orders in time maybe written-off containing models no longer available.

The backlog can be adjusted at the start of each year as more information becomes available while adjusting the year end reporting and recognizing changes from closing accounting entries.

The start of this year’s backlog is derived from both Airbus and Boeing data available on its respective websites. The number uses list prices and model types of undelivered units for this basis. The YTD information adds or subtracts from this base number establish at the beginning of the year. In this case the beginning of 2017.

Boeing has had a middling first two month when reaching production expectation and orders placed where Airbus has a dismal start for 2017. The orders and delivery number for 2017 through period 2 are available with this report. One big month of orders by Airbus could catch Boeing and it likely Airbus will have a few surprises by year's end, as it usually likes to report mega orders through any December 31, ** ending. Boeing pulled an Airbus routine during 2016 by announcing a large quantity of last minute orders as if spying the competition is alive and well. It is important to Airbus to always go big over anything else on the planet, like a spoiled child wanting its Ice Cream.

It must frustrate the Airbus YTD people as it shot its order wad at the end of 2016. Both manufacturers will have a "same production different year" experience, but Airbus drained its swamp at year's end before 2017. However, Boeing is plodding along its merry way having multiple orders in waiting and some unfinished business yet to reveal itself after the first two months of 2017. Expect an Airbus order revival by quarters end.

The third period data will be interesting for both framers. The BB ratio starts to take form by that time and onlookers will start to predict BB information as financial pablum for investor's. Winging It has no predictive input at this time. This is a spectator sport having a Vegas slot machine running 24/7 in the background. However, dice will be rolled just as lemmings jump into the ocean once in a while.

Backlog and what it may mean to the Framers: 

Backlog is the wick length on the lantern. Resources are the supply chain, manufacturing capacities and capable personnel pooling up as oil for the lantern. The flame size is the delivery capability. Airbus has more wick for its oil than Boeing has for its flame. Airbus cannot turn up the flame inspite of wick length where Boeing has turn up its flame consuming more wick and oil making it the world's largest aircraft maker at this time. If Boeing is to sustain the flame it must have more oil and wick where Airbus needs more oil and flame before its wick becomes too long to burn efficiently. This is the picture of these charts. Its a balancing act and requires constant attention. The relative numbers provided suggests, where adjustments must be made for the strongest long burning flame possible.

The Pre Announcement 797 To Do List Summarized

What must happen before the 797 becomes real to the market:

ü No show stoppers from R&D

ü No new technology not already in service

Ø New Wing designs

v New engine awarded with yet to be determined leading engine maker. Rolls, PW or CFM or a combination using GE.

v Pre Announcement commitments in-hand greater than two hundred aircraft.

v Major Airline as Launch Customer

Ø Comprehensive review of program costs expectations

v A Defined break-even point for aircraft delivered

ü A defined range capability true class type and not a another endless model line coming from the 737 and the 787 family.

Key:

ü Completed

v Unknown

Ø Works in Progress

Is A Boeing 797 The New MOM ??

The news is broken from comments made during a recent air exposition in San Diego, California this week. Boeing is looking at a new twin aisle having the 797 moniker. "Winging It" has written often about such an aircraft and it can be searched using key words such as MOM. 

Little will be discussed on this blog at this time until Boeing makes the announcement. It can only say that the "Paris Air Show" (Le Bourget) during June 2017 is the perfect venue for such an announcement. Like most predictions, it becomes a gut instinct from all the news postings in total which could lead someone to conclude it will be soon enough and why not Paris? 

Recent Winging IT Links on The Blog: 

MOM is coming, Winging It Weighs in Again

A Plausible Argument For MOM Exist

Last Word On MOM until late 2016 Announcement

The sketch below is a shortened view as the actual concept would go 30 plus rows.

Lindbergh Arrives at Le Bourget in 2017 Ninety Years Later.

The International Paris Air Show takes place for the fifty-second time on 7 days from Mon., June 19, 2017 to Sun., June 25, 2017 in Le Bourget.

Charles Lindbergh landed at Les Bourget on May 21, 1927 at 10:22 PM Paris time in a single aisle aircraft 90 years ago. He achieved the nick name “Lucky Lindy” for this feat. Not to be forgotten, the Paris Airshow is for the daring and brave. The $ 25,000 Orteig prize no longer exists as Lindbergh and his partners collected the prize.

Acknowledging the website: Historical Log Of Lindberg’s Flight

Lindbergh's Transatlantic Flight: New York to Paris Timeline, May 20-21, 1927

This site owned and operated by the Spirit of St. Louis 2 Project.
Email: webmaster@charleslindbergh.com 
® Copyright 2014 CharlesLindbergh.com�, All rights reserved. 



Charles Lindbergh

Photo by Harris & Ewing

7:52am - Charles Lindbergh takes off from Roosevelt Field, Long Island, New York. The heavy plane, loaded with 450 gallons of fuel, clears telephone wires at the end of the runway by only 20 feet.

8:52am - Altitude: 500 ft. Wind velocity: 0 mph. Currently over Rhode Island. Except for some turbulence, the flight over Long Island Sound and Connecticut was uneventful. Only 3,500 miles to Paris.

9:52am - Boston lies behind the plane; Cape Cod is to the right. Altitude: 150 ft. Airspeed: 107 mph. Wind velocity: 0 mph.

10:52am - There's a breeze blowing from the NW at 10mph. Lindbergh begins to feel tired, although only four hours have passed since leaving New York. He descends and flies within ten feet of the water to help keep his mind clear.

11:52am - Four hundred miles from New York. Altitude: 200 ft. Nova Scotia appears ahead. After flying over the Gulf of Maine, the Spirit of St. Louis is only six miles, or 2 degrees, off course.

12:52pm - Wind velocity has increased to 30 mph. Lindbergh flies over a mountain range. Clouds soon appear and thicken as the Spirit of St. Louis approaches a storm front.

2:52pm - Altitude: 600 ft. Air speed: 96 mph. Lindbergh's course takes him away from the edge of the storm. Wind velocity has dropped to 15 mph.

3:52pm - The eastern edge of Nova Scotia's Cape Breton Island lies below. In minutes Lindbergh will be over water again. Although it's only the afternoon of the first day, Lindbergh struggles to stay awake.

5:52pm - Flying along the southern coast of Newfoundland. Altitude: 300 ft. Air speed: 92 mph. Wind velocity: 20 mph.

7:52pm - Stars begin to appear in the sky as night falls. The sea below is completely obscured by fog. Lindbergh climbs from an altitude of 800 ft to 7500 ft to stay above the quickly-rising cloud.

8:52pm - Altitude: 10,000 ft. The cloud that first appeared as fog is still below. A thunderhead looms ahead. Lindbergh files into the towering cloud, then turns back after noticing ice forming on the plane.

10:52pm - Lindbergh's fight to keep his eyelids open continues. To keep warm, Lindbergh considers closing the plane's windows, but then decides that he needs the cold, fresh air to help stay awake.

11:52pm - Altitude: 10,000 ft. Air speed: 90 mph. Five hundred miles from Newfoundland. The air has warmed -- there's no ice remaining on the plane.

1:52am - Halfway to Paris. Eighteen hours into the flight. Instead of feeling as though he should celebrate (as he had planned), Lindbergh feels only dread: eighteen long hours to go.

2:52am - Daylight! Because Lindbergh has travelled through several time zones, dawn comes earlier. The light revives the pilot for a while, but then drowsiness returns. He even falls asleep, but only for a moment.

4:52am - Flying in the fog. Lindbergh continually falls asleep with his eyes open, then awakens seconds, possibly minutes, later. The pilot also begins to hallucinate. Finally, after flying for hours in or above the fog, the skies begin to clear.

7:52am - Twenty-four hours have elapsed since taking off from New York. Lindbergh does not feel as tired.

9:52am - Several small fishing boats spotted. Lindbergh circles and flies by closely, hoping to yell for directions, but no fishermen appear on the boats' decks.

10:52am - Local time: 3:00pm. Lindbergh spots land to his left and veers toward it. Refering to his charts, he identifies the land to be the southern tip of Ireland. The Spirit of St. Louis is 2.5 hours ahead of schedule and less than three miles off course.

12:52pm - Wanting to reach the French coast in daylight, Lindbergh increases air speed to 110 mph. The English coast appears ahead. The pilot is now wide awake.

2:52pm - The sun sets as the Spirit of St. Louis flies over the coastal French town of Cherbourg. Only two hundred miles to Paris.

5:22pm - The Spirit of St. Louis touches down at the Le Bourget Aerodrome, Paris, France. Local time: 10:22pm. Total flight time: 33 hours, 30 minutes, 29.8 seconds. Charles Lindbergh had not slept in 55 hours. Source: The Spirit of St. Louis, by Charles A. Lindbergh

Oh how times have changed in ninety years of flying to Europe. No longer does a pilot or passenger endure exhaustion from not sleeping. Paris/Le Bourget is the show and America has a definite presence. It could offer a new MOM 797 at the show as if it were claiming another Orteig price once again. A slam against Europe and its A-321 NEO. There is rumblings coming from Boeing and its officers, as references are made about a whole new 797 twin aisle aircraft proposal in the makings.  Is it the long awaited 757 replacement completing Boeing’s family of Aircraft? Maybe Paris in the spring is the real deal and love once again shows at the show for all aviation enthusiast. 

Airbus Loses Some Ground to Boeing With Orders and Deliveries 2017

Airbus numbers are out and as soon as possible there will be Boeing numbers in which to compare critical data. In total Airbus has stumbled out of the data gate. Boeing will surpass Airbus in several categories in both orders and deliveries. A subtle change has occurred in the all-in-all backlog total. Boeing will have a smaller unit and dollar value backlog again as Airbus' decade of the NEO has surpassed Boeing order totals by a wide margin. However, there is a turning and balancing of the market for more of a fifty-fifty split between the mega builders. In Fig. 1 the total backlog value has shrunk for Airbus and the book to bill ration during the first two months of 2017 goes negative in a significant way. Airbus has ten more months to make this up and it may accomplish a fatter backlog by years end once again. 

Fig. 1

Boeing on the other hand continues to shrink its backlog in units and value at a steady pace and it has outperformed Airbus during the first two months of 2017. The data is incomplete but preliminary numbers are based on data available before Boeing will publish its February numbers on March 9, 2017. The early numbers suggests Boeing had a consistent February over the Airbus slow down. The next posting will demonstrate the head to head" World's Largest Framer of Aircraft 2017" version with Boeing having an early lead again. However, Boeing may yet receive more orders than Airbus during 2017 and it will likely out produce Airbus within the same period. 

Fig. 2

Boeing 787 Numbers During February 2017

Boeing program numbers have moved under 700 Dreamliners to go with 1,207 ordered

Orders as shown in Fig. 1 below, middle chart: 

Fig 1.

Boeing has slipped below 12 a month delivery pace over the last 90 days averaging period. Shown in Fig 2. below:

Fig 2.

Program at a glance in a year by year summary.

Fig 3.

Fig 4.

Fig 5.

787-8 Is Winding Down To Better Things

Exactly how much of this market remains? The 787-8 does not receive new orders like a drunken salesman in the bar ordering drinks for everyone. It will barely produce:

·       By David Wren dwren@postandcourier.com   Quotation below

And Uresh Sheth numbers: ALL Things 787 projections of production and delivery statistics.

“Looking into the future, Boeing has just 26 787-8s on its production schedule through 2018 compared with plans to build 210 787-9 models, according to Uresh Sheth, ALLTHINGS787. The newest and largest Dreamliner, the 787-10 built exclusively in North Charleston, has 15 slots on the production chart through the end of next year.”

The quotation and information provided above will also show,  that only 90 of the 787-8 remain to be delivered and a further 23 787-8 will be delivered during this year out of a possible 145 787’s for all types scheduled for 2017. With that realization, an examination of the remaining undelivered 787-8 order book has many inferences.

All THINGS 787 Derived Charts below:

Fig.1

Fig-1 Above demonstrates the raw order book yet to be delivered with those already delivered and finally those in the remaining backlog. It stands @90 to go with few orders on the horizon for its type. Boeing needs to revisit the first born of the family and give it a make-over in a new market segment. Winging IT has already written enough about MOM aircraft suggesting a move in this direction for the 787-300 rebirth. (The 787-300 Redux). “Ahora Nunca!” The slogan for addressing the ninety 787-800 backlog. Announcing a new version isn't over-stepping vast production challenges for the 777-9X, 737-Max or the 787-10 makings in the near term. It will take more than three years ramping-up the 787-8 renewal member having a revised body type completing the line of aircraft and thus bridging its single aisle line-up in the market place.

Fig.2 All Things 787 reference

Above in figure 2, demonstrates the possible deliveries for those customers who have yet to receive its first 787-8. This number is over half of the remaining 787-8's in the backlog. Looking at each customer on this list the risk exist few will be delivered and the remaining few will be further out on the delivery schedule. It has become a 787-9 and 787-10 show going forward as the 787-8 slumps into its repose.

Fig. 3 All Things 787 reference

Figure 3, above shows the whole dichotomy of the 787 family of aircraft yet to deliver and a corresponding percentage of backlog remaining. It is clear to see the way forward for Boeing is the Middle Of the Market using the 787 concept and not the Max concept while only 90 787-8's remain to be built. Boeing has three years to fold in a spin-off long after the 787-10 and 777-9X flies and is delivered. The 737 Max will have long flown the coup in this three years future period of where Boeing is going.

The case comes from the numbers above, assuming Boeing's propensity to expand its market and it will no longer watch Airbus steals the market away as did the A-321 NEO Boeing debacle.

The 787-300 Redux

Boeing could regroup its plan for the 787 family now that the 787-ten reaches its production threshold. The failure was pushing a middle of the market wide body because Japan ordered it. There was no salient business supporting a 5,000 Km 290 passenger aircraft. There is still no need for such a configuration.

Wikipedia small reference note:
“The -3 was going to be the smallest and would have the shortest range at about 5000 km, and would fly about 290 people. It would have replace the Boeing 747-400D (the D stands for domestic, which means flights that take-off and land in the same country) that was used by two Japanese airlines. At first these Japanese airlines had ordered the 787-3, but since the plane was late the airlines cancelled their orders. This made Boeing stop making the 787-3.”

Rethinking the cancelation of the 787-300 has made a full circle since 2010, when it was expelled as part of the family of 787’s. After much consideration a new formulation for the 787-300 should be on the table. The A321-NEO is the guide on for such a discussion after airbus has taken in about 1,400 such orders since the 757 ceased production.

Building it with a smaller barrel diameter for the fuselage and reconfiguring an engine matching is weight and size would be an academic exercise and not ground breaking. The cost of bringing one of these would sink a few billion dollars but would also kill the A-321-NEO single aisle dominance.

A down sized body would fit going seven across as a dual aisle. Eliminating two seats per row from a 18 foot wide 787-8 could shrink the 787-300 fuselage by about three feet. Seven times 34 rows is 238 passengers, beating the A-321 by a long shot. The A-321 NEO asking price is 115 Million. A Boeing 787-300 with its 240 seats beats the A321-NEO’s 185 seats by 55 paying seats. Weights of aircraft and capacity for each would make a 787-300 an attractive option in higher density markets.

The A-321 at 206,000 lbs vs 500,00lbs for the 787-800 could compete with a trimmed 787-300 would have considerably less weight counting its fuel and reduced frame size and engine configuration. It could come in at around 330,000 lbs fully loaded and have an empty weight of around 280,000 lbs. However with its expanded number seats it works out at around 1,300 lbs per seat of aircraft weight, for both Airbus and Boeing given these assumptions.

The range and passenger differences favor a right sized 787-300 over any single aisle proposed today. Boeing could sell about 1,000 or more of lightly configured 787-300’s in the near term. The market place has changed since the cancellation of the original 787-300 in 2010.

Boeing and Singapore Air Validate A "Sea Change"

The A-380 is bigger than most visionary predictions. Boeing complained when the A-380 first delivered that it had a shorten order book and Airbus wouldn’t turn a profit with the big bird. Boeing believed that from its own waning 747 orders. It didn’t expect to beat the A-380 many attributes, but did want to dampen the Airbus enthusiasm for its Opus Grande rendition of "Ride of the Valkyries". The Airbus A-380 will never make it to Valhalla.

This visual metaphor for the A-380 has a group of back-slapping Boeing execs restraining from singing the “I told you so chorus” as Singapore Air unloads its leased A-380’s (5) and will hold on to its remaining nineteen A-380’s it had purchased.

If Batman’s Robin were in the house you might hear a “Holy flying pig” exclamation! Because Boeing just sold 20 777-9X to Singapore Air. While having only nineteen A-380’s in its fleet, the message is not lost on the aviation world as it will receive 20 777-9X over the next years in a stream of deliveries mirroring the same retirement rate for Singapore’s fleet of A-380’s in total. The icing came when Singapore had already booked 30 of Boeing’s 787-10, thus covering every route Singapore had and will have going forward. It ordered an additional nineteen 787-10’s for expansions of its Markets.

Seats are seats going everywhere:

• A-380: 545 seats X 19 = 10,355 passengers going 19 places to and fro.
• 777-9X: 405 seats X 20   = 8,100 going 20 places.
• 787-10: 330 seat X 49    = 16,170 going 49 places.

There is ample room to replace the A-380, as a planner now has 24,270 Boeing seats that can fly to 69 locations a day. Hanging on to the A-380 would handcuff Singapore Air from its market expansion plans when it goes long or regional risking not filling seats.

Singapore can now open up new routes with the Boeing orders. Even though it was keen on the A-350’s ordered for its fleets, the signal is loud and long Boeing has a critical offering that completes Singapore’s plans. It didn’t order more A-350’s? A two manufacturer fleet gives Singapore dominance beyond it region for years to come, but the A-380 is good until the last 777-9X is delivered from this recent order.

A further danger exists for Airbus if Singapore develops longer thin routes requiring less passenger density. It may order some 777-8X when those routes are established. The flexing of commonality from type to type is way more flexible with Boeing than Airbus in this case.

A final thought, the aviation world watches each other with due diligence because opportunities are shrinking as every airline expands its footprints. The Middle East is ahead of the curve with its order books, however China lags and has notice this Singapore nuance. Then EVA Air ordered 24 787-10’s. There is a sea change happening and Boeing has caught a tailwind from that change.