McAllister Will Move Office Cube Upstairs at Boeing

GE exec who has strong ties with aviation and Boeing in particular will move his operations over to Boeing's paycheck systems. Formerly a GE rising star and critical component of its aspirations, this multi facet leader of industry will lead Boeing Commercial Aviation Division.

Boeing has these published Divisions and CEO changes:

Commercial:    Defense:  Space: Innovation:100: Global**:   

Out: Conner        NC*      NC         NC         NC     NA***    

IN:  McAllister     NC       NC         NC         NC  Stan Deal

*NC is No Change
(**New division for Global customer service for both Commercial and Defense is combined)
*** NA Not Available

Excellent "Standard Examiner" Report on the changes and what strategy Boeing pursues with the changes made.

Commercial, is the Division McAllister moves into replacing Ray Conner, while Stan Deal fills into a newly created Division for customer Service for Commercial and Defense Divisions. Conner retires with his "parachute".

Boeing CEO, Dennis Muilenburg, remains as the ultimate Boeing head for all Division's.

"With McAllister, Boeing gains an executive with deep ties to airlines worldwide, including some who are exclusively Airbus Group SE customers, and a reputation for using data to analyze airlines’ wants and needs. He’d been viewed as a potential successor to David Joyce, who heads GE Aviation and is a vice chairman, said Rick Kennedy, a spokesman for GE.

McAllister has been GE’s “face” to all of its airline customers for 15 years, first leading the sales team and more recently as the head of the unit selling long-term service contracts and spare parts. The business is a major source of profit for GE, accumulating a backlog of services worth more than $120 billion, Kennedy said.

McAllister is a “very solid guy with a great background in aviation,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia. “He’s a big customer and part of their biggest industrial partner company, too. That’s a unique combination.”

A materials engineer by training and University of Pittsburgh graduate, McAllister will be the first outsider to lead Boeing Commercial Airplanes since the unit was formed in 1965. The company selected McAllister after considering a mix of external and internal candidates to succeed Conner.

McAllister has worked closely with Boeing over the years, Muilenburg said. “I’m not sure I’d call him an outsider,” the CEO said. “He’s been very, very close to us for a couple of decades.”

While McAllister masters the nuances of Boeing’s culture and works to earn the respect of its factory workers and engineers, he also will face crucial product-strategy decisions. Perhaps the most critical is the call expected next year on Boeing’s first all-new airplane since the 787 Dreamliner: a new plane family aimed at the market gap between Boeing’s largest single-aisle and smallest twin-aisle jetliners.

Through his role at GE, McAllister “saw both the challenges and failures of the 787,” Howard Rubel, an aerospace analyst at Jefferies, said by phone. “So, he knows how hard it is to run an airplane company. He saw how hard it was to launch a new engine.”

McAllister also will be under pressure to bolster margins as the planemaker slows production of the 777, its second-largest source of profit. He may also have to navigate potential fall-out from the economic penalties President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose on China, Boeing’s largest overseas market

Deal, 52, who was rumored to be an heir to Conner, had served as senior vice-president of Boeing’s Commercial Aviation Services business since 2014. His new business will have about 20,000 employees and will maintain a headquarters staff of a “couple dozen” in Dallas.

The lines between Deal’s new unit and Boeing airplane and defense divisions will be blurry in places, with some customer-facing groups staying in place inside the current business units.

Deal’s current operation has more than 12,000 employees and provides airlines and leasing companies with wide ranging support services, from maintenance training to digital crew scheduling. Another 13,000 employees support military and government customers worldwide."

Gone:

"Conner has served as corporate vice chairman since 2013, and president and CEO of commercial airplanes since 2012. A 39-year Boeing veteran, he led the division during an era of historic jetliner sales, then warned workers that tougher times and cost reductions lay ahead. During his watch, record output at Boeing’s factories boosted the segment’s revenue to $66 billion, up 34 percent from 2012.

He is a throwback, known for close ties forged with customers as the planemaker’s former sales chief. A native of Burien, Washington, a working-class suburb south of Seattle, Conner joined his father and brother at Boeing in 1977, landing a job as a mechanic building 727 jetliners.

Conner will help smooth the transition to a new generation of leaders, Muilenburg said, while helping Deal knit together the government and commercial services businesses. Conner will also stay “engaged in our product development activities, including the production transformation under way,” Muilenburg said.

Winging Take:

All this means is Boeing is shifting to market condition as it tries to find a balance between growing the company through product offering and customer satisfaction through an effort of finding commonality from its customer base with commercial and military.

Commercial and Defense are both divergent from one to another but they share common characteristics in that both Commercial and Defense has been identified as a customer centric environment. 

The military is keen towards having a rapid change management through its corps strategy as costs and war are mutually inclusive. Commercial is bound to survival through its customers own change management operation as it competes in a market place battle field environment. Both share customer service as the key to rapid change in a competitive world as key to an operational victory for its customers. 

The Navy, Army and Air Force share the same changes with its products as does the Commercial Aviation Division. A missile within Military budget is just as critical as a Commercial airplane performing within its promise through its customer perspective.

Boeing will lose if it cannot manage its customers to its likes as found when competing with Airbus A-320 or a Lockheed F-35 when submitting a bid. The Military holistic package has an important customer service component which directly affects the outcome of any bid process. Boeing's new Global Division will address these issues through Stan Head's leadership. It is an adjunct Division serving the operations of both Commercial and Defense.

Related Article for additional information and insight:

Boeing's Big Push Into Services Should Bolster Revenues And Returns, Reduce Cyclicality

The F-35 From One Year Ago Remains Very Good (Good Read)

The F-35 so far to date has not flown its wings off or had an engine explode as its counter parts had during its testing phase. Yes, it had a couple of engine fires while on the ground and some techno stuff not working, but all-in-all it disappoints the naysayers as an always present condition of anything bigger than themselves. The F-35 one year later from the Forbes Article written July 13, 2015 has lived up to its promise.

Ten Signs The F-35 Fighter Program Is Becoming A Smashing Success

Loren Thompson ,  

 CONTRIBUTOR

I write about national security, especially its business dimensions.  

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

Summer is the silly season for defense coverage in the nation’s capital.  With much of official Washington gone, journalists have to work harder to find anything worth reporting.  When they uncover an item that sounds like it might be newsy, they get as much mileage out of it as they can.

One approach is to take the latest glitch (real or imagined) in the Pentagon’s biggest weapon program and use it as a pretext for revisiting past issues — even though most of those issues have long since been resolved.  The F-35 fighter is an easy target because its budget dwarfs funding for other programs, and the plane thus is a lightning rod for every conspiracy theorist’s fears about the machinations of the military-industrial complex.  Few of the reporters on the defense beat realize that all of the legacy fighters sustaining America’s global air power today were subjected to the same sort of withering scrutiny during their own development.

I have an emotional attachment to the F-35 because I have worked with many of the companies that build it, including prime contractor Lockheed Martin, for much of my adult life (the program was awarded to Lockheed on October 26, 2001 — the day I turned 50).  So when I see a widely-read pundit describe the plane as a “laughingstock,” as I did last week, I resent it.  Are there really people out there that believe three presidents, three military services, and eight allies would pour a hundred billion dollars into a fighter that doesn’t work? Apparently there are.

All of these critics will eventually be left behind by history.  The F-35 is shaping up to be the greatest combat aircraft in history.  That isn’t my characterization, it’s what Senator John McCain — no friend of the military-industrial complex – said when the plane began operations at the Marine Corps air station in Yuma, Arizona three years ago.  Here are ten signs that McCain was right.

1. Flight tests are over two-thirds complete with no show-stoppers.  The Air Force, Marine and Navy variants of the F-35 have each completed at least two-thirds of their flight tests — over 8,000 are planned — and no major problems with the design have been identified.  All of the key performance parameters for each of the variants have been satisfied, and the plane is flying every day (there have been over 13,000 operational sorties).  Tests have validated that the airframe is extremely stealthy — nearly undetectable by enemy radar — and that it affords unparalleled situational awareness to pilots.

2. Risks associated with a revolutionary design are being steadily retired.  The F-35 is probably the most complicated military-technology project in history.  It introduces a host of innovations that have never before been integrated into a combat aircraft.  However, developers have successfully resolved every problem that arose with the new technology.  For instance, a deficiency in the data that pilots see displayed on the visor of their high-tech helmets has been eliminated; a tailhook on the Navy variant of the fighter that wasn’t consistently grabbing arresting wires was redesigned and now works 100% of the time; a cracked bulkhead discovered during durability testing of the Marine version was strengthened.

3. The Marines will declare initial operational capability this summer.  The Marine Corps variant of the F-35, which is capable of vertical takeoff and landing, will officially become operational this summer and begin replacing aged Harrier jump-jets.  For the first time ever, the Marines will have a highly survivable, versatile attack aircraft that can land on a dime pretty much anywhere.  The Air Force variant will become operational next year, and the Navy variant in 2018.  So this isn’t just a development program anymore — the F-35 has begun to reach the operational force.

4. Sea trials of the Navy version were the most successful ever. According to Navy officials, “the aircraft demonstrated exceptional performance throughout its initial sea trials.”  All of the planned test points were accomplished expeditiously, and Navy testers took the unprecedented step of conducting night operations in the aircraft’s first at-sea trials.  The tailhook that is crucial to slowing planes when they hit the carrier deck worked 124 times in 124 attempts — in other words, flawlessly — and test pilots described the harrowing experience of final approach as “carefree” thanks to new technology that captures and maintains an optimum glideslope, substantially reducing pilot workload and enhancing safety.

5. Over 145 F-35s have been built and delivered.  After seven successive production lots, key manufacturing processes have been refined in preparation for a steady ramp-up of output.  A total of 88 F-35s are currently under construction at Lockheed Martin’s plant in Fort Worth, and 110 are being produced worldwide.  There has been a 68% reduction in the labor hours required to assemble each plane since the initial production lot, and an 82% reduction in scrap, rework and repair.  The cost of building an F-35 is falling in each successive production lot, and the price-tag for the most common, Air Force, variant looks likely to match that of last-generation fighters by the end of the decade.

6. Estimates of life-cycle costs are falling fast.  The joint program office’s projection of what it will cost to sustain the F-35 during a 55-year service life fell by $58 billion in its most recent estimates.  The official estimate of what it will cost to support all 2,457 U.S. F-35s remains unchanged because the Pentagon’s cost-assessment shop does not adjust its projections between program milestones, but that will change when the next milestone is reached in 2017.  In the meantime, the joint program office — which is not similarly constrained — says the projected cost of operating the plane is falling due to a better understanding of fuel consumption, maintenance needs, labor rates and the like.

7. Numerous allies have joined the F-35 program.  The F-35 program from its inception has been a joint effort by three U.S. military services and eight international partners.  The foreign partners — Australia, Britain, Italy and others – collectively have contributed nearly $5 billion to the plane’s development.  Their participation in the production program is expected to save U.S. taxpayers $36 billion by fostering economies of scale.  And now other countries are signing up, including Israel, Japan and South Korea.  The participation of so many key allies in the F-35 effort will enhance interoperability and minimize fratricide in future coalition air operations.

8. Nearly 200 pilots and 2,000 maintainers have been trained.  Program managers are steadily expanding the joint infrastructure that will support the fielded force of F-35s.  There are a total of nine operating bases where over 145 planes are operating, and the program has surpassed 35,000 flight hours.  Training personnel — I have talked to several — are uniformly positive in praising the aircraft’s handling characteristics, reliability and maintainability.  The stealth features of the F-35 were designed to be more easily maintained than low observables on earlier planes, a key consideration in managing life-cycle costs.

9. There is better understanding of fifth-generation fighters.  The F-35 program has been dogged from its early days by the secrecy surrounding much of what makes it unique.  Experts use the shorthand term “fifth-generation” to describe the unique combination of stealth, sensor fusion, networking and other features that will make it the most formidable tactical aircraft in history, but it has taken time for people to grasp the operational implications (one recent story noted the complaint of a test pilot who said he couldn’t turn his head to see where an adversary was behind him — something pilots wouldn’t do in a fully-equipped F-35).  As more and more pilots actually fly the plane though, the logic of its design and features is becoming obvious.

10. The political system has closed ranks behind the program.  It isn’t just the pilots who have begun to appreciate what an F-35 can accomplish.  Pentagon officials and members of Congress who once were critical of F-35 are now highlighting how the program has overcome developmental challenges to deliver a truly impressive product.  Senior military officers who seemed ambivalent in the past are now supportive, acquisition officials are citing steady programmatic progress, and even Senator McCain has become more positive in his assessment of the effort.  That doesn’t mean the program will encounter no further setbacks, but what it does signal is that the F-35 effort is in better shape today than ever before — which is a good thing, because there is no ”Plane B” waiting in the wings."

Loading For More Dreamliners ?

Manufacturing intelligence is a key indicator for the overarching intent of the mega manufacturer such as Boeing. Spirit Aerosystems installation of a new autoclave signals a capability far exceeding the current backlog Boeing has for its 787 model. A sensible plan for Boeing is the preparation for a 2,000 unit 787 order book. The current unofficial units stands at 1,210 Dreamliners ordered, and having about 725 of its type remaining to be built as of this date.

Spirit Aerosystems is a large player in this effort, a key bellwether indicator for the program. If it expands, then Boeing planning has done its due diligence for estimating market growth. Here is what Engineering.com has written about signaling an expectation of 787 product growth as Spirit sinks millions into this project as it expects far more work than the 725 currently in backlog.

Engineering.com:

Spirit AeroSystems Autoclave

Spirit AeroSystems' new autoclave. (Image courtesy of Spirit AeroSystems.)

Spirit AeroSystems Inc. is installing one of the world's largest autoclaves at its Wichita, Kansas facility to support increasing production levels in the company's composite fuselage business and to grow overall composite production capability. The new autoclave has a 30-foot diameter and an internal volume of more than 78,000 cubic feet.

"Spirit continues to invest in our composite manufacturing capability and this latest expansion will help us meet record demand for the products we build," said Terry George, Spirit's vice president of the 787 program.

The autoclave, which is 120 feet long, is one of nearly 40 at Spirit's Wichita location. The addition is part of a 94,000 square-foot expansion to Spirit's Composite Fuselage Facility, where the company makes the carbon-fiber nose section for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.

The Game Of Chicken Shakes Companies from United To Boeing

Once upon a time United ordered 61 of Boeing's 737-700 as an astounding validation for that type of aircraft. The 737-700 ripple hardly breached the beach until it did a 180 on its single aisle long order when talking Boeing into a side order from those same 737-700's making a 737 Max Cake. United played chicken, then blinked and reconfigured its order book and cash position in one announcement.

This time the world noticed the nuance. United had changed direction in its business model addressing its competitors like Delta and American Airlines that it would compete at a higher level of performance. It also deferred strained capital flows going into the next ten years. The five Billion ordered with Boeing and then deferred gets United into a stronger cash position going forward with much more precision from its perspective.

Precision is not by model selection but only in a strategic fashion over its competitors. No one knows how United will parley the deferral into its plans. Both the 737-Max-8's and Max-9's are in play coming from the 61 deferred 737-700's already booked. Production slots and cash flows were main objectives of United. They weren't ready to spring its trap on the competitors. 

Now the game is afoot wondering how and when all will come together, making it too late for the competition to respond in a timely manner. United will steal production spots as Airbus' is quagmire d in its own backlog. United calls chicken on its competitors and Boeing remains booked with different models once it is announces what it intends.

The change of heart was never intended by United to be "a real change of heart", only a feign, and now known as the play action fake hand-off turning into a long pass over its rivals. The how’s and why's of United's playbook while holding its closely held secrets even as its stocks took a dip by 1.8 percent of value today. 

The five billion deferral is a definite pivot by United, allowing Boeing a small production window opening as Boeing arranges its factory floor. Boeing no longer seems quite as swamped with orders as it once claimed when upping a production pace near 52 single aisle aircraft a month. Boeing will proceed as planned but with a little more slack to get it right. United will need its fleet replacement/renewal in the next five years while adjusting its business model. 

This play action pass by United, almost certainly will result in a preponderance of 737-8 Max ordered before all is considered and made finale.

United needs additional seats for expanding its market presence in the domestic arena. A paced delivery bodes well for United's capital position. The synergy between additional seats sold, upgraded customer satisfaction and efficient operations pushes United to the head of the class. However, holding five Billion in orders is too much at this time for United to swallow.

  

Winging It Is Hot Again

Last November 5, 2016 "Winging It" went dark until it successfully moved to its new location in Meridian, Id. All the nerves are now taking a rest. Fortunately for the blog nothing happened that should be reported or commented about from this perspective. Thank you all for your continued use of this blog. I can now return to the duty of writing and publishing opinions, ideas and news in the aviation world concerning Boeing and its adversaries. In addition there will be the occasional articles concerning big ships, submarines and military advances such as the F-35 and the Zumwalt class destroyer as examples. My favorite submarine is the Virginia class submarine boat and its vast technologies and arms.

In time of my "moving insanity", there came brief moments of rest and renewal. A president of the US was elected. I am not political only to the extent on how it affects our national defense. If president elect, Donald Trump can achieve even half of the military vision expressed during the campaign then there is plenty to write about.

The Chinese J-20 flew at its own air show and is purported to be fifth generation. By definition, fifth generation is a stealth aircraft, then China has one. Not to be outdone by the Chinese, the US F-35 goes to fused technology for its example of fifth generation for which China has not currently demonstrated. Fused technology is the intersection of all advanced systems and technological developments processed through one media center such as the F-35 invisible mach 1.6 flying computer. The combat circle of the F-35 is from space, the deep and across the world. China may have speed and stealth with its J-20, but may not have the American technology infused into air frame.

I hope all will enjoy the research and avionic digressions of Winging It going forward.

Announcement: Winging It Taking A Brief Break

The time has come to relocate operations for this blog. Long in the planning and long for the wait, but the time has come to relocate operations to another street address. 

The most important consideration is the move will disable the internet for up to two weeks and close off my contributions in that time period.

The second consideration: The blog was striving for contributing 1,000 blogs as a goal and this pause will interrupt that objective for 2016 causing Winging It to spill into 2017 after which more decisions are to be made going forward. If you have any ideas or criticisms please share them!

The third observation: is there are more than 966 blogs to read from during the next two weeks and I advise every reader to reference blogs predicting what the 787  will perform and what it has become today when comparing those predictions to outcomes. It’s your challenge to do so.

·      One is about Ryan Air

·      Another about the battery crises as examples.

Good luck and I'll see on the other side of the move!!! 

Airlines Searching For The "Seat Spot"

An Airline sets the seat count on a model of aircraft whether its single aisle or duo aisle. The first consideration is weighed well its about weight. A fully loaded aircraft with 17" across seats pack more sardine per cubic foot of cabin space. The ticket price is based on airline cost of both fixed and variable for each trip. The variable costing factor looks for a per unit or (seat) cost for any given trip going some distance. The longer the distance weight becomes a drain on its fuel capacity and distance traveled. The airline must determine seats sold and revenue obtained when sponsoring any given flight.

The airline madness begins with filling the airplane to max capacity and going the distance in the world market place. Variable costs would include fuel, operational services and in-flight support activities apportioned to ticket revenue. The fixed costs would include assets, staffing, and inventory acquisitions as exampled by this brief summary. Every ticket sold supports a contribution margin where the number of tickets sold with a certain price contributes towards reaching a break-even point and ultimately a profit for the airline. 

Cost accounting gives me a headache. Therefore computers come to the rescue with a liberal application of 17" wide seats having a 31" seat pitch. The term seat/mile refers to some variable costing indices. The airplane can fly so many miles with so many passengers weighing so much on a ticket configured for having some projected Beak-even point. An airplane holding a max 300 passengers could sell $200 dollar tickets and exceed break-even after the 133rd ticket is sold. However, if only 132 tickets are sold it would go into a loss position for that particular flight in this example. 

The unofficial example of Macro-costing for model 300 seats vs model 240 seats:

Fig 1.  comparing same model different passenger capacity.

FC=Fixed Costs
VC= Variable Costs
BE=Break-even point

The risk of going negative is often mitigated from ticket price or revenue required to fund a flight going its distance for the weight loaded. In a simple costing formula and a great deal of calculating from the accounting computer.  

The two examples above can factor in space additions without affecting the margin as it changes the variable costing element. A 300 seat 787-9 just crams in people where a more sensible 240 seat 787-9 makes a "big" difference in customer comfort on the long haul.

Successful Airlines run at a 80% Occupancy Rate.

• Model 1 is at 66% occupied.
• Model 2 is 83% occupied.

Here is the summary analysis:

·      The key component for this analysis is variable costing drops from $100 a unit to $80 dollars a unit from using less supplies, fuel and service for each passenger.

·      The second consideration no seat price has changed.

·      Seats sold no change

·      Fixed Costs no change

·      Break-even point in seats changes from 133 seats to 122, where having less passengers at maximum occupancy reduces operating costs and thus reduces the Break-even value. 

Airlines are now finding more room makes them more money than going for numbers at thin operating margins. Delta is configuring its airline for more convenience and space at the sacrifice of having more seats. Don't worry they will make a good deal of money hauling less passengers per airplane. The seat cramming paradigm has shifted to correctly configured aircraft. Boeing had this angle calculated long before it sold its first 787. However, the commercial customer couldn't resist overloading for more passengers now they are beginning to focus on value for its passenger customers.

Boeing's Military Division is Fraught With Risk and Reward Termoil

You don't have to look far until analyzing the Lockheed F-35 program before corporate America is adverse to the risk of winning a bid with the military. Building military equipment is impregnated with a whimsical Military objective. Build the "moon shot" for the military and hope a military fluid and dynamic condition won't impose a penalty on the contractor. The F-35 program did not reach a military satisfaction bench mark early on as the F-35 couldn't even fit an advanced technology helmet on its pilots without a major re-write of programs and capabilities.

Boeing, knowing that corporate investors would love to have a sure bet with military contracts are jumpy when the DoD does a 180 degree course change when it firms up a contract. They call for a stealthy war bird when in fact they are looking for an invisible aircraft after-all. The battle field has changed during the long and drawn out bid process which brings up another crucial point.

Will funding be voted upon during the different stages and maturation of a new military project? The US Congress weighs in on simplistic notions for gaining any sense about whether it should release more billions of dollars after a program reaches the rock and hard place point of development. The F-35 was just awarded the 9th block of 5th generation fighters with only having a 57 block grant from congress. Years in the discussion for the 9th and 10th block authorization has the Congress imposing its will of only awarding Block 9 and ignoring block 10. Lockheed is breathless over this imposition of award and that after the last two years working for a contract allotment of the F-35 next batches.

Boeing watches every little nuance between the military, congress and the awardee. Lockheed got smoked by politics when promised so much at the onset of the F-35 program. However, this is only a speed bump towards building 2,400 F-35 going forward. The 57 F-35's in Block 9 are low production rate aircraft as Lockheed fixes its “moon shot” technology along the trail of program completeness.

Boeing is out of the Moon Shot business for investor’s sake. It is taking a position during the remainder of this decade for mitigating any far reaching risk until program production pays for the last ten years of risk making from its commercial programs, hence a cautious approach on anything military until it can absorb more risk without damaging stock portfolios from around the world. Lockheed is the pilot hole for all military programs going forward. Timing, maybe right for Boeing to partner with either Northrup, Lockheed or itself for 6th generation fighter development on a large scale. Technology sharing is needed for 6th generation ideas.

Subcontracting with "others" can either increase or mitigate risk depending on program complexity. In fact partnering makes the mess too complex for a successful futuristic program unless new purchasing methods are used for conforming the product without inconsistent contribution of all players. Boeing will remain tepid on future military opportunity since the risk is too high for any military rewards obtained at this time.

Donghai Adds Five 787-9's To Boeing's Backlog.

Donghai Airlines has reached a culmination since the Paris Airshow initial commitments, by signing for twenty-five 737 8's and five 787-9's ordered. The culmination has come after several weeks ago when finalizing the 25 Max, and now today it has finalized the Dreamliners. The total 787 orders placed with Boeing 2016 now stands at sixty-six Dreamliners for the year.

ATW: 

China’s Donghai Airlines finalizes Boeing 787-9 order

The recent Dreamliner additions in October include 30 with Qatar, 12 with China Southern, and 5 with Donghai Airlines. The monthly total boosts Boeing's order book by 47 Dreamliners after only booking 19 Dreamliners in 2016 through the month of September. Boeing's Dreamliner booking is not done yet for 2016. There are several more pending orders yet to be booked such as Pakistan's order for eight and the ever looming Emirates order for a huge number. That alone may come in 2017 where Boeing will need to continue its wide body bookings going forward, hence the delay in 777 production decrease announcement, it is suspected that the order will come through and then extend current production levels as it will order a suite of wide bodies. It is rumored that Emirates may have a 100 aircraft order forming while listening to both Boeing and Airbus proposals. 

The Boeing Book may and could exceed over 100 Dreamliners booked in 2016, but it is more likely it will go sub 100 Dreamliners ordered for 2016 as it reaches into the mid Seventies range. Either way Boeing has established a solid order groundwork which will bear more order fruit for the program launching it into a 14 a month production pace in 2017. Reaching greater production levels will enable Boeing to maneuver adeptly in the market place and spurring on more wide body orders going forward. Boeing has demonstrated to customers, the Dreamliner is a complete program before the 787-10 makes its debut.

October 31, 2016 End Of Month

Program Summary Recap has some notable changes as the 787 order book for 2016 grew to 61 units ordered year to date. Also 117 Dreamliners have been delivered, as it is on pace for about 138 Dreamliners for the year.

Fig. 1

Further doodling analysis reflects a backlog shrinkage at a nominal number of -2 units against orders and delivery since 2011.

90 Day recap of 787 Delivery:

Boeing continues to exceed guidance after another 90 day period paces at almost 12 a month 787's projected goal. Boeing and should reach year ending guidance without pause.  

Fig. 2

Program strength is as follows:

Fig. 3

Program production dichotomy of production and by model.

Fig. 4

Program model in process and delivered production report.

Fig. 5