You don't have to look far until
analyzing the Lockheed F-35 program before corporate America is adverse to the
risk of winning a bid with the military. Building military equipment is
impregnated with a whimsical Military objective. Build the "moon shot"
for the military and hope a military fluid and dynamic condition won't impose a
penalty on the contractor. The F-35 program did not reach a military
satisfaction bench mark early on as the F-35 couldn't even fit an advanced
technology helmet on its pilots without a major re-write of programs and
capabilities.
Boeing, knowing that corporate investors would love to have a sure
bet with military contracts are jumpy when the DoD does a 180 degree course
change when it firms up a contract. They call for a stealthy war bird when in
fact they are looking for an invisible aircraft after-all. The battle field has
changed during the long and drawn out bid process which brings up another
crucial point.
Will funding be voted upon during
the different stages and maturation of a new military project? The US Congress
weighs in on simplistic notions for gaining any sense about whether it should
release more billions of dollars after a program reaches the rock and hard place
point of development. The F-35 was just awarded the 9th block of 5th generation
fighters with only having a 57 block grant from congress. Years in the
discussion for the 9th and 10th block authorization has the Congress imposing
its will of only awarding Block 9 and ignoring block 10. Lockheed is breathless
over this imposition of award and that after the last two years working for a
contract allotment of the F-35 next batches.
Boeing watches every little nuance between the military, congress
and the awardee. Lockheed got smoked by politics when promised so much at the
onset of the F-35 program. However, this is only a speed bump towards building
2,400 F-35 going forward. The 57 F-35's in Block 9 are low production rate
aircraft as Lockheed fixes its “moon shot” technology along the trail of
program completeness.
Boeing is out of the Moon Shot
business for investor’s sake. It is taking a position during the remainder of
this decade for mitigating any far reaching risk until program production pays
for the last ten years of risk making from its commercial programs, hence a
cautious approach on anything military until it can absorb more risk without
damaging stock portfolios from around the world. Lockheed is the pilot hole for
all military programs going forward. Timing, maybe right for Boeing to partner with
either Northrup, Lockheed or itself for 6th generation fighter development on a
large scale. Technology sharing is needed for 6th generation ideas.
Subcontracting with "others" can either increase or
mitigate risk depending on program complexity. In fact partnering makes the
mess too complex for a successful futuristic program unless new purchasing
methods are used for conforming the product without inconsistent contribution
of all players. Boeing will remain tepid on future military opportunity since
the risk is too high for any military rewards obtained at this time.