Did The China Order In Its "Suspense File" Come In For Boeing?

The unannounced order book has grown mysteriously in Boeing's case. Here are the numbers:

2015 Net Orders

563

2

49

58

71

743

Customers	737	747	767	777	787	Total
AerCap	100	-	-	-	-	100
Air Austral	-	-	-	-	2	2
Air Tahiti Nui	-	-	-	-	2	2
AirBridgeCargo Airlines	-	2	-	-	-	2
Alaska Airlines	6	-	-	-	-	6
ALC	8	-	-	-	-	8
All Nippon Airways	5	-	-	-	3	8
Atlas Air, Inc	-	1	-	-	-	1
Australia P-8	4	-	-	-	-	4
BOC Aviation	23	-	-	-	-	23
Business Jets / VIP Customer(s)	6	-	-	-	2	8
COPA Airlines	51	-	-	-	-	51
Delta Air Lines	20	-	-	-	-	20
EL AL Israel Airlines	-	-	-	-	3	3
Enter Air Sp. z o.o.	1	-	-	-	-	1
Ethiopian Airlines	-	-	-	-	6	6
Etihad Airways	-	-	-	2	-	2
EVA Air	-	-	-	7	18	25
FedEx	-	-	49	-	-	49
GECAS	2	-	-	-	-	2
GOL Airlines	9	-	-	-	-	9
Jet2.com Ltd	30	-	-	-	-	30
Korean Air	30	-	-	7	-	37
Norwegian	-	-	-	-	19	19
Oman Air (SAOC)	20	-	-	-	-	20
Qantas	-	-	-	-	5	5
Qatar Airways	-	-	-	14	-	14
Ruili Airlines	30	-	-	-	-	30
Ryanair	3	-	-	-	-	3
SilkAir	6	-	-	-	-	6
Silk Way Airlines	-	3	-	-	-	3
SMBC Aviation Capital	10	-	-	-	-	10
Sriwijaya Air	2	-	-	-	-	2
Swiss Global Air Lines Ltd	-	-	-	3	-	3
TUI Travel PLC	-	-	-	-	1	1
Turkish Airlines	10	-	-	-	-	10
Unidentified Customer(s)	244	-	-	15	36	295
United Airlines	-	-	-	10	-	10
United States Navy	9	-	-	-	-	9
Virgin Australia Airlines	4	-	-	-	-	4
2015 Gross Orders	633	6	49	58	97	843
Changes	-70	-4	-	-	-26	-100
2015 Net Orders	563	2	49	58	71	743

	737	747	767	777	787	Total

Blue highlighted text in the chart above indicates updates for the current week.

Changes since last update: 166 new orders (Delta Air Lines for 20 737s, Jet 2.com Ltd for three 737s, and Unidentified Customer(s) for 143 737s).

One hundred and forty-three, unidentified 737's comes in near the China "omnibus" order mentioned earlier in the fall. It also speculated, wide body orders would be numbering in the 50's taking my estimation off track, since no mention of unidentified wide bodies even show up in the Boeing order updating. The order book may not reflect the China order at all. 

The seven hundred and forty three Boeing total net order count is year-to-date, and it comes in pairing within its initial guidance given at the first of 2015. Boeing proposed a 700-755 sales year would occur during 2015. I must admit, I factored a higher order count than this for its 787 program during 2015. It has occurred to me, Boeing still has an order moment up its sleeve (seven more days to go). Whether it's 2015 or 2016 is in the Boeing cards. 

The 787 has already achieved 71 787's ordered this year, but order book changes today does not include any China intent announced earlier in the year. Even not knowing who the 143-737's are going to, I suspect a China order is in play, with having wide bodies orders announced later next year. The other comment is that Boeing knows if it will build or assemble 737's in China at this time.

"China’s Boeing Order: China Business News November 27, 2015

Boeing, realizing how big the market for China is, has entered into an agreement with China for 300 airlines worth $38 billion at list price. Part of the general agreement includes 190 of the 737 aircraft and 50 of the wide body planes for the Chinese airlines. China is one of the biggest markets for Boeing, accounting for quarter of the deliveries this year."

At last the deal is done with China and the caveat is that Chinese participants announce when, what, and who the individual orders involve. Boeing may only reflect the announced identified portion of the larger China order in Suspense. 

What's Happening In The Used Market, What does It Mean?

Recently a used 777 was just sold to Delta Airlines when they already signed off on a huge Airbus order for both A330-900 NEO and A350's. 

Motley Fool Quoted:

"Delta's own behavior belies its contention that there is a huge bubble in the wide-body market. Just a year ago, Delta ordered 50 new A350-900 and A330-900neo aircraft -- planes that are in roughly the same size class as the 777-200." 

Delta went with Airbus in a daring maneuver contrary to market trends towards buying Boeing. It seemed Delta succumbed to the Airbus' offering through its price strategy for new acquisitions. Now a new exhibit has emerged with the $7 Million dollar (usd) purchase for a used 777 in the face of the Airbus $6. plus billion order it had just completed last year, when it bonded with the European giant. Crazy stuff on the tarmac (surface) in Atlanta.

After reading Motley Fool's carefully presented interpretation of the Boeing "used buy", and last year's Airbus fleet renewal buying, I came up with another hypothesis than Motley Fool's view. They are correct with its initial assumptions on what all this means.

The other interpretation comes from Winging It, and it goes this way: 

Delta made a decision within its own vacuum of its Vision/Mission statements:

"We invest in people and processes that ensure the reliable movement." 

Delta is at a point that it will shore up any gaps in its operation for its customers, through purchasing a 7 Million dollar acquisition with a used 777. It has nothing to do with Aviation's highly competitive air framer war or Delta's fleet renewal plan. It is an aberration coming from its Mission or Vision values thrusting forward. It's that simple. The initial plan with Airbus comes out of its many considerations observed before buying a "New" Airbus fleet. Unfortunately for Boeing this will have a lasting affect for many years to come.

A good exercise for Boeing is how to shorten "the many years to come" setting within any ten years goal, and win back Delta. It must look at Delta's Vision and Mission and match its offering with Delta at many levels of its vision/mission.

First: 

Examine what went wrong while competing with Airbus in the first place. This answer should be gained quickly. Price and value aligned with the Delta Mission Model significantly as Airbus proposed. Boeing must of had to stand its ground in the bid process, and did not competitively demonstrate a "Price and Value" within Delta's "Mission" scope. Boeing needed more sweeteners for future operations. They knew of the A330-900 but couldn't drop the 787 price enough, meeting Delta's corporate objective. Airbus made the case for long range travel while the 777X9 was too expensive for Delta's Vision, and year's far away. Airbus gave Delta a sweet deal for which Boeing could not approach at the time during the proposal year. 

Conclusion: Boeing needed the 777-8X at an introductory price sooner rather than later. Delta did not like the 787-10 middling range or high price, but may have even liked the airplane. The 787-9 once again too expensive, even when packaged with the 787-8 pricing, or against the A330-900 NEO. The whole Boeing package came in higher and not ready for delivery for Delta's top to bottom fleet coping with Delta's "Mission" and its five year plan!

Finally, Boeing is already squeezing down time with each passing day. The 787 breakeven point is rapidly approaching during 2016 where it could offer a special deal covering Boeing's family of aircraft. The 777X is so developmental, and many cost risk exists where it can't offer a Delta-Vision-Deal until cost are closed down, or when commercial production begins. The whole time, price and value components will be achieved by 2018. By 2025, Boeing can rule many a company’s "Mission Statements", thus win more battles. 

Used 777 are just used 777's costing Seven Million and fitting in a Mission Statement's parameters. This is the Used market not affecting the New Airplane Market.

F-35 II B Mira Mar 2015

Winging It continues with toys from Santa's Work Shop. This is what I want for Christmas and Go Marines, defend this nation!

Air Show HD Clips Around The Globe 2015

The A380 Makes The 777X Extraordinary (Part I)

When you have an A380 in a fleet then comes the 777X family of aircraft. The key word here is family. Long distance or moderate haul the 777X out performs, out distances and routes the ways A380 could deliver passengers. Most of the world's airports can't accept the A380 even if they dreamed of A380 airport congestion. It won't slot into Jet ways or ride the asphalt like the 777X family will. The A380 has met its common sense match through the 777X stable mates. For Christmas, Winging IT brings in another video feature for your travel contemplations. When will the 777X is scheduled for first delivery? In 2020, as the A380 goes through its White Elephant Phase.

The A380 Slowly Fades In Stage Three Of Market Pulse Part II

Boeing 777X Firm Orders

Date of Firm order	Country	Customer	Orders
			-8	-9	Combined
Nov 17, 2013	Germany	Lufthansa	0	20	20[46]
Nov 17, 2013	United Arab Emirates	Etihad Airways[n 1]	8	17	25[46][47]
Dec 20, 2013	Hong Kong	Cathay Pacific	0	21	21[46][48]
Jul 9, 2014	United Arab Emirates	Emirates	35	115	150[46][49]
Jul 16, 2014	Qatar	Qatar Airways	10	50	60[46][50]
Jul 31, 2014	Japan	All Nippon Airways	0	20	20[46]
Jun 4, 2015		Unidentified Customer(s)	0	10	10[46]
Totals			53	253	306[46]

It is important to understand about this wiki order chart, with each 777X ordered, it represents a substantial customer investment. Not every other airline in the world has the means for even ordering one of these huge aircraft, nor do they have the means to order an A380. However, the leading world carriers have made a substantial commitment for what will become the next step in aviation and travel. It is safe to say the 777X will replace the 747-8i customer version, and then it will ramp into a future cargo arena, which the A380 should never venture, because of its landing slot inability as found within most world airports. 

It is also safe to safe to say the A380 is no longer wanted, as shown from this order registry exhibited below.  

Since the 777X was announced in late 2013, the A380 has only booked 13 of its type from 2014.

A380 firm net orders and deliveries

view talk edit		2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Net orders	A380-800	78	–	34	10	10	24	33	9	4	32	19	9	42	13	–	317
	A380F	7	10	–	–	10	-17	-10	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Deliveries	A380-800	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	12	10	18	26	30	25	30	24	176

Hence it is also safe to say the 777X has shut down the A380 ordering, when it made its own late 2013 777X announcement. It offers too much advantage over the A380 novelty.

If you Can't say Something Nice Then... Canadian Version

The old Disney quip from Thumper, "If you can't say something nice than don't say nothing at all" has finally come to "The Canadian Air". For several years pundits and prognosticators have been picking on Boeing space with its nine across seating. Maybe it's in an attempt for sounding knowledgeable through criticism. Or an attempt for fear mongering passengers into reading another issue of "What-Ever Flight Journal". Leave it to the Canadians to set the record straight about 787's from its very own 787's. This will be a Winging It polite feature article from Canada for Christmas.

Coming straight from Winnipeg Free Press is: 

Dreamliner delivers savvy travel

The remaining quotes from Winnipeg Free Press is a Christmas Special to the very special Winging It followers and readers for Christmas reading. "Merry Christmas", goes around the world. My own experience in travel includes an often journeyed experience on the 737 NG, various regional Jets and of course traveling on the big ones around North America.

During my flight time experiences, it often included a range of two to 6 hour flights on all equipment imaginable within North America. However, since I was grounded from making flight endeavors, I reflect and comment on this blog. Who was I? I was a 6' ft tall, and a 300 pounder during my career needing travel. So you see I know what cramped means and I can't understand how bloggers who weigh only 150 lbs. can complain about seating on 787 airplanes, and write a purposed article articulating seating failures on the 787. You've got to be kidding me, I know Santa Claus, I fed him the cookies and hot chocolate while on assignment. Since I have "retired", I am a slim 250 lbs. Those are my qualifications for writing this Christmas piece.

Time to start quotes from the Winnipeg Free Press  draped with Maple Leaf Red Font for Christmas: 

"But, truth be told, we chose the Korean capital more because we could fly there on Air Canada's new Boeing 787 Dreamliner jet. We'd heard it's the latest and greatest in long-haul air travel. It's ultra-comfortable, hyper-fuel-efficient, quieter, faster and stylish. Plus, we'd own bragging rights for riding the plane of the future, the jet that's revolutionizing aviation."

"It's OK if you picked this trip more for the aircraft than the destination," says Roch Lefebvre with a laugh. He's one of 12 service managers who has also earned the designation of Dreamliner coach. Air Canada tries to have at least one such coach on every Dreamliner flight to hobnob with passengers and help other flight attendants with all the plane's intricacies.

“Those include the marquee feature of the 787 -- the ability to minimize jet lag by maximizing cabin pressure and humidity so your blood absorbs more oxygen. In addition, large windows light up and darken in keeping with your destination's time to encourage sleep and hasten resetting the body's time clock.”

“Air Canada is so pumped about these attributes, it's promoting the Dreamliner with the "All jet, no lag" slogan. There's also larger overhead bins, personal touch-screen entertainment systems at all seats and USB and power outlets accessible for all.”

"People are in awe of this plane," adds Lefebvre. 

"We've had people book specific flights or change flights or routes deliberately so they could fly the Dreamliner."

To get the full-on round-trip Dreamliner experience I flew Vancouver to Seoul in economy and my wife in premium economy. On the way back, we both indulged in business class. I don't know if I'm qualified to report on the business class experience because I slept most of the 9 1/2 hours from Seoul to Vancouver.”

“But such shut-eye is the ultimate compliment of the aircraft. With my very own high-tech pod with lie-flat bed, complete with massage and firmness controls, it was inevitable I would slumber soundly.

Of course, I managed to stay awake for the Drappier Champagne welcome-aboard reception and dinner of beef tenderloin with a glass, or two, of Chateau Martinolles red wine from France.”

“Not to be complete Dreamliner geeks, we also enjoyed time on the ground in Seoul. We toured Gyeongbokgung Royal Palace; ate bibimbap (a veggie rice bowl with chilis) and bulgogi (marinated beef stew) at authentic Kim Chi Gol restaurant; took in the lotus tea ceremony and Chrysanthemum Flower Show at Jogyesa Temple; shopped famous Insa-Dong Street; and made fun of Seoul singer Psy, the guy behind the annoying worldwide hit song Gangnam Style. By the way, Gangnam is Seoul's equivalent of Beverly Hills.”

“The Dreamliner is Air Canada's go-to jet for long-haul flights such as Vancouver to Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Shanghai. The 787s are also on the Toronto to Tel Aviv, Copenhagen, London, Paris, Milan and Tokyo routes."

"The new-generation 787-9 Dreamliner also just started flying Toronto to Delhi and Dubai."

Check out AirCanada.com and VisitSeoul.net...

By: Steve MacNaull
Posted: 12/19/2015 3:00 AM |

It wasn't hard to wrap this up only to say on a 737 NG, I snuggled into a comfortable position through airplane yoga techniques. I didn't have to have a wide seat spread-out of an arrogant traveler. I kept it Canadian and had an American technique for every seat offered me. 

The window required a shoulder roll, a pillow and entertainment. 

The middle seat situation, I pulled my elbows within the seat armrest boundaries where I once again entertained myself with what-ever is available and got up once every 90 minutes when possible. 

The aisle seat on single aisle aircraft became a slight challenge. Food Carts and traffic is always an interruption on the 737 SWA seating arrangements. 

Even with regional jets I was fine. A plus six hour flight in my case, would call for an economy plus ticket just because I am bigger than 200 lbs. Those under 200 lbs. should have a great time in economy on long flights. For Christmas, stop complaining about a lack of 787 spaciousness, because you get a premium experience while traveling economy, stop eating Santa's cookies and cut back on maple sugar and fly Air Canada. 

787-9 Production Cash 2016 Propels Boeing Forward

Boeing, in a startling move, will replace the 757 through announcing a new type, filling a gap it created during the last ten years of having no 757 replacement. Production efficiency will also make the 787 family of aircraft profitable after paring down production cost by sending excess cost to the development debt. These values were moved over as a long term program liability, totaling about a $28 billion dollar sideline movement of accumulated development cost, away from the 787 production stream. Cash comes aboard for Boeing and becomes a financial source for its new and predicted gap filler in 2016. Therefore, profits are finally recognized for the 787 during 2016. This also propels the 787-10 development, and an all-new 757 replacement model decision, which reaches its announcement epitome in 2016 ("As a 757 Global Dream"). 

The Max program cost are already identified and assigned its financial sources for the project. It will be SOP for Boeing building the Max as its many experimented and developed technologies from the 787 program, can be used for the Max program. The cost of making the Max can be recovered faster from its high end delivery repetitions, during the first five years of production. The Boeing strategy for other programs wraps in the 787-9 synergy.  

Boeing will pivot towards a 757 replacement from a robust 787-9 cash flow during 2016. It has set itself up for managing profitability and cash when adding one more program next year, if only announcing it during 2016, it will change the game one more time.

Etihad, The Force Awakens

Where in the heck is the UAE? What does this place matter and why does Boeing owe its allegiance to its flag? All good questions for those stuck at a terminal reading a thrown away TED magazine. Stop, drop, and roll you're on fire if you think of Etihad as something special. 

Exhibit 1: Boeing smugly hides data on its website;

Model Series	Eng	First Order	Orders	Deliveries	Unfilled	First Delivery
777-300ER	GE	30-Nov-2004	18	18	-	27-Jan-2006
777F	GE	10-Mar-2008	6	3	3	21-Jun-2011
777X	GE	17-Nov-2013	25	-	25
777 Total			49	21	28
787-10	GE	14-Nov-2013	30	-	30
787-9	GE	10-Mar-2008	41	5	36	31-Dec-2014
787 Total			71	5	66

Customer Total

120

26

94

Etihad has made a serious effort rivaling Qatar's dominance in the region after it uses its combination fleet of Airbus or Boeing types for rivaling the region. However, In Etihad's case, it goes strong and long with Boeing using its own game changing sensibility for the region. The trickle of 787-9 Etihad recent deliveries establishes its efforts have only just begun. Think once again about what does procuring the larger types for use as 71-787-9-10's and 25-777-8-9's impacts the region? Several oil wells are siphoned off for this Boeing order.  Additionally, once again for the sake of regional stability, go with light sabres. Also, six percent of all totaled 787’s ever ordered from Boeing goes to Etihad's book. Even Etihad's 777-8-9's ordered represents a sizable percentage of future deliveries from Boeing. It stands at about 10% of the current Boeing Book for the 777X program. 

We come to the "What's up with that", section. Qatar hopes it bought correctly having a mixed maker fleet in light of Etihad counter punch. Qatar caters more to elitism and the wealthy where Etihad markets more for customer effect than having an exclusive status and special sensibility for moving passengers as Qatar advertises. This Middle Eastern battle is good for Boeing, as it can rely on Etihad carrying its banner, as “others” throw in on what type of airplane they should buy during the second purchase go-around for wide bodies in the next five years.  

All Things 787 Blog Data Demonstrates Having Nine December Deliveries

All Things 787 by Uresh has made the case for 2015 as Boeing will deliver 135-787 during 2015. A remarkable increase over last year's huge effort of 114 -787 landing in customers hands. A chart derived from Uresh Seth's website, "All Things 787", demonstrates what the final number will bring to Boeing's production Juggernaut in 2015.

All Things 787

Currently, this Boeing tally shows 131 aircraft delivered as of December 17 for 2015. However, the deliveries in green are highlighted, to be delivered in the next two weeks, and will close out 2015 with 135-787 handed out.  The fourth Quarter 2015 should end with 35-787 delivered in quarter, sustaining a rate of nearly 12 a month pace during the last three months of 2015. Boeing should deliver 20 787-9 and 15 787-8 during the fourth Quarter. Indicating the quarter marks a permanent condition for Boeing since focusing on its more profitable 787-9 over the 787-8 production rate. Marking a turning point towards this propensity of 787-9's over the 787-8, will give Boeing a heightened cash position for 2016.