Single Aisle At The Climax (Updated new 737 Oders)

Boeing has long proposed its 737 MAX is the undisputed winner of the Single Aisle Airplane Wars. Airbus says not so fast people, the A320 NEO reigns supreme. Who is correct in this assumption?

The answer is in sales numbers for various reasons.

• Fleet renewal opportunity
• Commonality Curve
• Oil Prices become a non-purchase factor
• Time
• Paper vs Metal, Flying version wins orders.

Airbus had an eleven month jump in time over Boeing announcing in 2011 its NEO single Aisle. Boeing lost the advantage of time and was set backwards by about 1200 NEO's ordered in the first year. The first 787 was delivered in 2011 and Boeing was flummoxed by an early 787 debacle and couldn't counter punch Airbus at that time until the next year when orders came surging in for the MAX.

However, Airbus was in perfect sync with market realities. They kept going forward with its customers filling its order book.. Boeing could only try to stay on the same lap around the development stage with orders.

 

So far, so good until 2015. Airbus is ready to lap Boeing on single Aisle orders. This leads me to ponder that oil prices do not make a case for Boeing, for buying its MAX over the NEO. The fuel efficiency difference for the two is a non-decider. 

Commonality found in Airbus product is further along, than Boeing's conversion towards its theme of "fly like a 787" on all models. Customers new to Airbus, may have bought into the price offering from a single aisle discount. Boeing strapped for program profit may have held firm with its pricing in order for it to avoid any development hit on its bottom line for the MAX.

Airbus stole the march on Boeing in 2011 and timed the world fleet renewal window perfectly. The lower oil prices have just began shrinking purchase power in 2015. Boeing drew the short straw when leasing aircraft becomes a tool and side effect from lower fuel prices.

However, as dismal as the 2015 period appears for Boeing Single Aisle purchase orders, it has built a significant internal construct for its marketing. The multitude of 787 sold, and the 777X launch success will make the case for having a top to bottom family of Boeing aircraft. Boeing's out of sync fleet "renewal opportunity surge", will catch-up by 2018 to the NEO book numbers. The year 2015 is bottom hitting for Boeing's Single Aisle effort. In fact Boeing will book some more MAX this month but won't catch Airbus. Boeing will have aligned its timing, commonality factor, and fleet renewal windows by 2018.

The flying version wins orders for Airbus as Boeing sketches out the Max on the CAD, its paper version loses momentum with orders during 2015. The third round of this fight will begin with Boeing having bloody cuts and bruises from the fight. The Boeing metal version rolls towards towards its corner in the shop awaiting the next round.  

Update:

Boeing jumps some net orders for the 737 before year's end, and slightly closes single aisle gap. It is a good indicator Boeing is in the fight to win it.

2015 Net Orders

563

2

49

58

71

743

The Boeing Order Book Graphed

Boeing has amassed orders for a seamless transition from it production floor going from NG to Max effort. The only gap found in the order book is the 747-8i has stalled as the new found twin solution makes it obsolete. A 747-8i doesn't die because of Airbus, it dies because of the 777X concept.

Owning two 405 seat 777-9X can fly more destinations than one 500 seat A380. The A380 is also a dead concept no matter how luxuriously appointed the Gulf States make it.

A Business Finance News Chart

  

With over 4,000 single aisle and over 1,000 Wide Bodies backlogged, Boeing has its work scheduled in a envious position. Comparing with Airbus who has a larger backlog it will be difficult for Airbus to fit more orders in a timely manner. Boeing has synced its production slots closer to market demand, and it will serve them well when marketing for more orders. Airlines who are expanding or are newly forming can fit its fleet expansions for single aisle ordering with Boeing, an important consideration when matching financial resources with business plans.

DDG 1000 Zumwalt Goes To Sea Trials Possibly December 7th

My favorite destroyer is going all out, maybe this Monday. The billions planted on board will make way for testing its systems under full operations with its crews and BIW expertise for the big shakedown. In case you have been living under an anchor, the Zumwalt is the equivalent of the Air Force F-35 when it comes to innovation and technology applications.

The massive destroyer is just bigger and faster than the Arleigh Burke class destroyer. It is stealthier and contains more firepower than most fighting ships found in the world. A projectile from the Zumwalt could sail 60 miles to its target, where the "round" applies inertia and mass obliterating buildings, ships and other wartime objects, and all while coming in at the speed similar to a meteor from space (via rail gun). It could manage the ocean battlespace for both air support and coordinate other ships by using satellite connectivity with multi military systems. It may be invisible from electronic sweeps from its design features. Three will be built, maybe that is all that is needed, one for each Ocean.

How Did Airbus Get To 787?

That is right, the Airbus order count had to play some serious tricks to its order book for totaling a net of 787 A350's to date. When the A350-800 died(ugh), Airbus orders slumped down to a net total of 787 A350's since it had only 787 units ordered and had no other choice. Oh my, not 787 units on order, somehow, it’s Order Book Karma! Since it is also getting near the winter solstice, and I am ready for more valuable information, I am sharing outrageous observations during the season making a new Winging It Christmas tradition. Hours of Darkness improves my lucidity? Just think only 22 shopping days before I go broke.

Airbus needs to desperately sell one more A350, any takers?

Starting with 817 net A350's ordered "Winging It" considers these A350-800 adjustments! Subtract the net thirty Airbus loss over the A350-800 cancellations and transfers to other A350 aircraft, Viola its 787 time on the books.

OFFICIAL Link to the Numbers

787-10 Seals Design Completeness. Lock and Load Time

Boeing just signaled the long journey in the design shop has ended for the 787-10. The mega builder learned from its 787-8 process how not to go there and there. It then built the 787-9 without missing a step. The mishap trail disappeared in the development weeds. The 787-9 was an opus effort for all things good and all things perfect. Sales kept soaring for the 787-9 (Below). 

The excitement for the 787-10 climbed because of the 787-9 tests and delivery to New Zealand Air's "all black ops" entry into service excited the world. The giddy Boeing team knew it had validated the 787 concept coming from disastrous 787-8 days to the heady 787-9 march through designing, freezing, and successful first flight.  All the 787-8 bogies were shot down by the 787-9 program.

It comes to the 787-10 with all the "how to" confidence and billions of experiential knowledge points on a new frame that is 95% 787-9 based. Continuous improvement has hit the big leagues with the 787-10 effort. It will fly forward without mishap. It will fly loaded for about 7,400 miles. It will seat up to forty more passengers than the 787-9, which is already comfortably outfitted with about 290 seats. Call it targeted for 330 seats for ocean busting covering 90% of the world market. If you want more then buy the 777-9X for 100% world market coverage and 405 seats.

Boeing Quote: Via E Turbo News

"With the 787-10, we are building upon our experience and the 787-9 design itself to create this newest member of the super-efficient 787 family," said Ken Sanger, vice president of 787 Airplane Development. "Through our dedicated team and our disciplined processes, we have optimized the design for the needs of the market and are excited as we look forward to production."

Using the word "excited" is an understatement from Ken Sanger. The first level order book stands at 164 787-10 sold. No one expected 164 before entry into service. It may rise in order number once it flies during the testing phase.

One more Boeing PR Quote:

"The 787-10 is the third and longest member of the 787 family. With a range of 6,430 nautical miles (11,910 km), the 787-10 will cover more than 90 percent of the world's twin-aisle routes at a whole new level of fuel efficiency: 25 percent more fuel efficient than the airplanes it will replace and at least 10 percent better than anything offered by the competition for the future."

Predictive Nature Of Boeing Blogging

It's always important foreseeing future trends based on current and past efforts while making an assumption out of whole paper tissue. Currently Boeing and Airbus has already made its 2015 statements representing many months of activity and preparation. Airbus holds the order book advantage going into December 2015. Boeing holds a few more calculated surprises which in no means will overtake the Airbus lead, but will demonstrate a market position in both the wide body and narrow body markets.

The scorecard is important to Airbus as an arm of its marketing scheme. They have achieved a draining of its order swamp this year going into the end of 2015 with its 910 gross order book count.

It beats Boeing in count by a wide margin which has mustered 647 Boeing aircraft booked in a gross count way. The question becomes what does this all mean in a snapshot.

Assumptions:

• Boeing drained its order swamp in 2014
• Airbus pricing is favorable with neutral leaning customers 
• Boeing Wide body has gained market separation over Airbus Wide body
• Airbus A320NEO keeps on keeping on
• Boeing Max comes in late after the single aisle market bubble ordering pops.

Just looking at these few ideas about the Boeing order book is enough realization, Boeing knew 2015 would softened its bookings, and not to worry about what Airbus does in 2016. For them (Airbus) it will be tough to double down on its ordering pace for two years in a row.

Boeing has achieved a benchmark that Airbus doubted when the first A350 was delivered. There should be no continuation of 787 order dominance. Airbus believes that once the A350 was delivered it was game over for the 787. Not so fast my friend! The 787-9 and 787-10 keeps up with orders while the A350 family of orders has languished in 2015. Boeing takes in a net of 71 (97 gross) 787 orders in 2015 while Airbus only has seven (oops) A350 during the same period of time.

Those numbers suggest a serious separation for competing programs. The Boeing stretches out its order and delivery lead even though the A350 has put its best foot forward with Qatar deliveries. The Arab state isn't drawing many comparison between the two types of competitors it now owns. Being the Airbus A350 launch customer, you would think its own pride of choice would deem some disheartening remark towards the 787 in its fleet, as positioned as the Premier Airbus A350 Launch customer.

Home Again For The November Boeing Roundup

Being a road junkie makes me appreciate Home Again!!!

Here are the recaps which will be updated with commentary on the flip side of tomorrow.

  

One point of note on the above chart suggests the 126 787 delivered to date during 2015 is a spot on number where Boeing will exceed guidance during 2015 with its former 10 a month number project as it becomes an overly cautious investor count, and should be upped to a realistic 12 a month guidance. It must move to 140, 787 a year delivered for any realistic relevancy, or become another silly statistic we all must endure each month reflecting on just ten produced. The real deal is a mystery on how in 2016 will continue with the incorporation of the 787-10 project and how it will impact the production floor by end of 2016.

The insertion of the EVA 787-10 order for 18 of its type with 6 more in option- limbo gives the program a significant boost as an indicator the type is becoming a success story before first entry into service.

The moving average chart is a fundamental snapshot, validating the guidance over a three month period. Looking a consistent number of twelve units a month determines if Boeing can sustain its goals of moving ahead with a new guidance which should occur in a 2016 annual report. Despite the onset of the 787-10 program. Twelve is the Christmas number announced for the production count each month for its 2016 guidance.

The big chart above is what it’s all about. The 354 delivered to date is program success. 1,143 787 ordered smashes the Airbus' dream into a nightmare. The 787 family of aircraft has validated itself as the leading edge aircraft during the first part of the 21st century. 

The divide of program aircraft above indicates a plan coming together on pace as visioned. The 787-10 is the big prize in 2015. The EVA order for 18 is significant in multiple ways. One for program validation, two for competitive relevance, and three for program completeness. The WB competitor, Airbus has whiffed it! The A350 -800 is dead on arrival. The A350-1000 is still looking at a NEO card play long after the program was launched, and finally the venerable A350-900 meets the 777-8 &-9, making Airbus sputter out a "WTF" comment concerning Boeing's offering of superior performance. Please note the Boeing order year is not yet done.

The chart above counts the units chambered versus units fired out. The WIP raw numbers of 45 establishes a static range of about 45-50. Fifty would be plant capacity number, forty-five seems to be a plant efficiency WIP number. The current Boeing WIP of forty-five is the primer for 2016. Output is keeping up with supplier input. The cash flow mechanism for the 787 has become a fixed number flow during the time where it approached 790 not yet built.

Northrop Defaults To Becoming Sole Source Bomber From DOD Procurement Process

The Pentagon, in its infinite wisdom, has defaulted the Bomber program to a sole source provider of American long range defense structure. Both Boeing and Lockheed lost the bid and may well loose interest in future bomber making. Thus leaving Northrop, the sole source of LRB making going forward.

The Pentagon scheme of things was preserving a manufacturer in competitive bidding. They preserved the Northrup complex. Choosing Lockheed's F-35 bid over Boeing, they preserved Lockheed as a Fighter builder over Boeing's scheme. Now what has Boeing been targeted to do for the pentagon, freight? Yeah, Boeing is now the freight and drone center for the Pentagon.

The Pentagon has used its procurement process as a means to shape a sole sourcing equipment strategy for military procurement by default. Boeing, a capable Bomber provider may no longer want a part of that dog fight in future bid wars. Otherwise, it will give the Pentagon a marginal bid approach for winning future bomber bids, letting the "other" (Northrop) competitor have its way in a full spectrum effort on the next bid. It also acquiesced its fighter bid with Lockheed submitting its capable but ugly F-32 offer, then losing to the F-35 for a Multi Role Fighter award. However, the Pentagon didn't need a 3 in 1 fighter, it needed a two/for the Navy and Air Force, and should have awarded a sole source F-32 from Boeing for the Marines. They would have preserved two manufacturers competing while splitting the order. Now they have only one interested in building fifth generation fighters at this time, Lockheed. The airframe is constrained by using it for three different roles. A two model bid from one a frame concept, would have made the F-35 greatly enhanced aircraft and more robust for both the Navy and Airforce.

The Pentagon plan inadvertently has diminished our war making, by keeping its manufacturing base spread far out in the industry. The scorecard, is all three big manufacturers now have become a sole source sponsor, but at least they are not entirely out of business.

The military should be tasked with rebuilding a competent defense complex by managing a winning bid process from Value Added awarding. Each bidder brings something to the bid table of high value and should remain in the award process not as the primary recipient but as a secondary awardee. Whether it be a ship, submarine or aircraft, "a competent bid" should have a place at the Military industrial complex table." 

In the bomber bid, they are now talking about 80-100 bombers will be built. Not a solid 100 unit proposition at all. When in fact they are considering only 80, they should be considering a second Bomber for its attributes uniquely from the bid process against the winning bid. Putting all your bombs in one basket may result in "the mishap of choosing" the build. They should build 80 of one type and fifty of the other type. The "top while in service performer", wins a future reorder. That is the ultimate goal. The best Bomber winning ultimately.

Oh yes, I am on vacation, sorry for posting this after saying I'm gone for some time off from this keyboard. Gotta go people are coming, shhh.

Taking A Winging It Break Until Later This Month

For those who follow Winging IT, word play is having its seasonal shutdown starting today. I will be back late November resuming my airplane routine, after which I am well fed-up. Keep watching for a new Blog addition after the US Thanksgiving week has ended. It's always a joy to spout off with conjecture over what can be gathered from the press and Boeing stuff. I have posted almost 747 blog pieces since late 2012. I hope everyone enjoys the sarcasm, insight and elements of fact making for an enjoyable read, which may inspire additional thought about the Boeing program. Don't ever confuse fact with humor, as the smiles are meant to defuse the serious nature of corporate ostentatious pronouncements.  Keep reading the prior postings during the next two weeks and form an appreciation for Winging It prognostications. It is my pleasure forecasting fantasy, past the obnoxious opinions found in aviation’s marketplace. See you all on the flip side of a break.

The Boeing Acceptance Numeration Corporation (BANC)

Ethiopian Airline has indicated an intent for "At least 10" Airbus in light of the recent US Congressional stoppage of EX EM shutdown. Fondly, known as student loans for buying with US industry. Many captains of industry depended on these loans for American products, such as a 200 million Dreamliner. 

Ethiopian "was" one such customer of Boeing. Not all is lost, even as it contemplates ordering up with Airbus for "at least" 10 A350-900's in the next two years. It already has on the books 14 A350's. It currently has about 19 787 ordered with six more in the queue for delivery. Thirteen are in service currently.

It's hard to imagine how Airbus managed squeezing in an order with Ethiopian without an EX-IM deal backing an Airbus order. Unless it offers internal backed financing from Euro backing. General Motors used to offer GMAC financing for its customers. Boeing should offer its BANC financing for its customers. However, R&D and production efficiency advances have gobbled up capital, to the tune of a $28 Billion hole, where Boeing needs to recover through producing and delivering more 787's. The BANC is in "the Boeing hole". If it can produce and deliver more 787's, it can have a BANC for its customers.

Ethiopian did indicate it had a propensity for Boeing aircraft and would expand its fleet with 777X's sometime. The Airport at Addis Ababa is well situated above 7,000 feet high, having a natural design fearure for both the 787 and 777X operation. Once the 777X flexes its wing tips out, it's off with a greater sum of passengers than what the A350 payload could accommodate going the "distance".

Ethiopian has gobbled up most of the early builds awaiting delivery in its own time. They bought from a happy Boeing, wishing to unload its "Terrible teens" on any airline willing for under $150 million to take them. Even if it will be in the 2016-2017 time frame. The six 787 yet to be delivered are those Terrible Teens. Once again, where is Ethiopian Airlines getting its money for freshly minted A350's unless Airbus will give Ethiopian Airlines a sweet deal like the Boeing Terrible Teens deal. The deal could be in the financing and not the airplane itself.

In two years, Boeing could conceivably offer its BANC for its customers and not depend on the EX-IM debacle for additional sales. Only profitability from the 787 could assure such a move. Only retirement of the 737 MAX and 777X startup push could give Boeing a window to do such a financial endeavor. The Cap on the BANC is set by family backlog. The 747-8i has no backlog, hence no BANC. Go to EX-IM in that case. The MAX through 777X has BANC for its customers at this time. Combined with Marketing deals which are made out of Airbus like thin air at Addis Ababa, Boeing deals are made with both price and financing appeal from its "BANC".