Neil Sedaka: Breaking Up Is So Hard To Do
The fly in the US military strategic footprint is the Turkey example. It is buying S-400 Russian missiles that can do much harm to the US F-35 program for which Turkey has become a key contributor to the program. "Think Tanks" have already a long time ago queried the question of what ifs? What if Canada drops out what if Turkey goes Russian or any other contributor to the F-35 program? Australia might want more vodka in its lunch program and will allow Russia in amongst the F-35 program it now hosts for Lockheed. All these types of scenarios have been vetted by American Think-Tanks a long time ago and now Turkey is playing its hand against NATO and the F-35 family of participants because it wants to assure a national defense at the lowest price.
It has the US over a barrel so Turkey assumes. However, Think-Tankers have already written up a plan B when ignorance happens. Politics and defense make a strange bedfellow. Turkey wants the S-400 so bad it wants to save face in light of dishonoring its already established defense partners. Oh my, Turkey has a leader who takes a populist stand of showing up American resolve by purchasing the S-400 missiles from Russia. Cheers Turkey, you have come of age defending your turf with what your neighbors already have, Russian equipment. It is the third rate strategy while putting the US in its place as the bazaar cheers on Erdogan's mantle.
Surprise and disappointment have struct the US military complex right between the eyes. However, the Think-Tankers have already thought this awkward situation through. Close the F-35 program in Turkey costing its nation thousands of high-end jobs and redistribute this technology loss to other subcontractors through its vast network of players.
Great Britain would like a bigger share of the tech work using its Thales or BAE customers or Lockheed. The question then becomes how long can Lockheed do without Turkey's contribution? The question long ago asked by thinkers caused a ramp-up of what-ifs with these scenarios. American resolve has allied with many of a subcontractor wanting more F-35 production. The Turkey deal was a quid pro quo, anyway. If turkey buys a 100 F-35 Lockheed then the US government will hire Turkish technology to do the work from Lockheed design and engineering work.
The F-35 is at the parts is parts stage at this point. A bad part happens and the F-35 program has its arms around the issue. Turkey is at a crossroads and it can't act clearly which is a danger for the whole F-35 program. It must "go" as an F-35 weak link. The decision was already made last year when the S-400 missile question came up! Find a replacement for Turkey's contribution to the F-35 program. This I assume is either far down that road or completed with a redistribution of F-35 work orders. I can't guess details of how the US/Lockheed has accomplished this change but the US wouldn't be talking so strongly about Turkey since the situation has changed in the F-35's favor. A production delay is probably down to six months if Turkey is booted out and no F-35's leave the US bound for Turkey.
The loss of a 100 F-35's sales to Turkey is an external problem not directly related the US aspirations. It was a quid pro quo deal in the first place. However, it is a big inconvenience already worked on for the last year. Erdogan's ship has already sailed. The F-35 will never return to Turkey and the F-35 already has the S-400 number before the first one even launched it its direction. The gain for Turkey is US inconvenience and saving Turkish face. The loss for Turkey is Nato, economy and its Turkish defense. The S-400 is no F-35.
No comments:
Post a Comment