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Monday, December 10, 2018

Exostructure, an Aviation Dream

Building something without adequate support requires an exostructure for its existence. Much like the crab that has an exoskeleton wrapping its inerds with a hard exterior, a commercial  airplane must also also have a hardshell around it in order to survive. Boeing has just announced it will make available a 777X BBJ without a market. It lacks a exostructure or a true market or an order for it to exist. Therefore orders represent an "Exostructure".

Part of the Exo support is airports capable of landing this behemoth. The folding wings is a clue. The Exostructure are found in the wings in this case. The 777X BBJ can land at any selfrespecting larger airport. It hasn't been shown how short of a runway it can land on. That will be found out in testing during 2019. The timing may be right as the  US could be considering an Airforce-1 may be a 777X BBJ modified for presidential use. 

However, potential, is that softshell mebrane that wraps an idea in its infancy. That's what Boeing has with its 777X BBJ concept just launched. Any national president or Bill Gates type can order one for $3/4 of a billion with upgrades included. The hardshell is that "exo order" allows the jet to live. The 777X BBJ gestation period is not defined as long as Boeing builds the 777-8X or 777-9X.  An analyst will quip, "that's alot of oil pumped out of a lot sand. Let's go pound some sand"!

Boeing believes it has an exostructure to support a 777X BBJ. It may come by it with a half dozen orders. Super states are the likely suspects along with an oil kingdom in the mix. Boeing wouldn't launch an idea without some softshell interest. Having that thought, it bears consideration, who that might be. The the question arises, four engine security over two engine efficiency. Let's face it, any self-respecting super-power can stuff the frame with all the latest communication and counter measures. The 777X BBJ would have room for file cabinets but a thumb drive would work in someones pocket as a terabyte pretty much fits within anywhere under the size of a coffee table coaster.

A four engine consideration burns more fuel and can go pretty far. A two engine GE9X engine will take anyone to the other side of the world while going East or West and then landing at the same location. Possibly the US has reconsidered the 747-8i AF1 order with a 777-8X workup. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes another 3 years before a first delivery of the presidential 747-8i ("AF1") or a 777X BBJ is in the works. A new president could mean a new order in a deal making venture with Boeing. After-all if it is good enough for the president of the US, then its good enough for a Chinese trade mission. Enough two engine excursions around the world has proven two engines are as safe as four engines. In most cases better than four engines unless there is some sort catestrophic mishap were both types would not have survived.

A 777X BBJ can just sit and wait for a "EXO" order to hold this program together a little while longer.





   

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