Boeing has started then stopped and then started the 797 talk over the last several years. Western sensibilities want an aircraft centered on passengers and it luggage requirements. Asian wants are centered on both passengers and freight. The Boeing Company first researched a viable mid-range middle of the market aircraft that became everything the 787-300 was supposed to be but had not enough takers for the concept. That was back in 2010 when the 787-300 went up in smoke.
Now comes the 220-270 type mid-range aircraft were Asia or China holds immense clout over Boeing's design parameters. The 797 is in a holding pattern while Boeing engineering is trying to please both western and eastern sensibilities. China wants the freight function and Boeing wants its 797 design motif to remain intact of a smaller hold than typical.
China wants passenger density that the 797 concepts is offering, but is squeamish over the Boeing conceptual freight capacity from Boeing's first designs having a smaller freight space than what western sensibility desires with Boeing's initial proposal. This brings the matter to a head. Having a two-body model type 797. One called the "E" and the other called the "W" type 797.
If Asia can commit to a 250 seat dual aisle 5,000-mile range holding enough freight space they will get an "E" ticket 797 for any Eastern type. If American and United have influence with Boeing (I think they do) then expect a 250 seat slim bodied 797 type called the 797-W for western sensibilities. If Boeing can easily build both types sharing 797 commonalities using same technologies for both types then both types could be built by snapping together its barrels according to the work order submitted at its assembly plant.
What's taking so long for Boeing to announce the 797? Well, it's going to commit to building what the customer wants or needs first and they must assure themselves it can do it without costing another money pit like the 787 program created with its deferred costs of almost $30 billion.
The west is west song comes to mind when thinking about this matter. Asia would have to order at least 400 797-E's before Boeing gives in while having a like number 797-W's also in the books from "other" customers like United. Plastics and computer modeling is the answer and that is what is taking Boeing so long. It can and will do the 797 but the order book it has collected on the 797 is governing the manufacturing headache it now faces.
Monday, April 30, 2018
Winging It Made A 787-10 Case Back in 2012
2012: Paraphrased, "The program will start when Boeing books at least 150 orders". They made that number with 171 units booked and have delivered two units six years after the Winging It prediction, to Singapore Airlines.
Winging It has made another prediction true.
Winging It has made another prediction true.
View From The Top: of a 777X Flight Deck
Boeing inches closer to the first flight of its proposed 777X airframe and here is proof its design is firmly in engineers hands with a "Go" card pinned to the 777X engineering door.
Okay, let's go!!!
Sunday, April 29, 2018
787 Program Numbers Crunched
Its been a while since numbers have been discussed. Sometimes terminology is used as in "Book to Bill" ratio needs to reach a theoretical "1". Or more commonly described as for every order there is one delivered within the same said period of time. Below is a Winging It Chart of 787 production and orders during the whole program to date not respecting any one year or month, but from the programs start of production/delivery in 2011 when the first 787's were delivered late in that year.
This recap has about 688 units in a backlog status until built and delivered. Program to date reports about 1,365 units ordered making the book to bill program ratio derived from 1365/677 thus equaling 2.02 BB rate. Another interesting note the deliveries are almost equal to it backlog comparing a 50/50 status. Boeing is announcing many more 787 bookings this year as it hopes to match its delivery pace with new orders by year's end in a 2018 BB rate of 1. An optimistic view, indeed. The rate production is jumping to 14 a month or 168 units a year for 2019. That number becomes an indicator it also hopes to match 787 booking by the same number. By year's end, Boeing will be hoping for around 140 units booked for maintaining of "1" BB Ratio by meeting its goal of 140 deliveries.
This recap has about 688 units in a backlog status until built and delivered. Program to date reports about 1,365 units ordered making the book to bill program ratio derived from 1365/677 thus equaling 2.02 BB rate. Another interesting note the deliveries are almost equal to it backlog comparing a 50/50 status. Boeing is announcing many more 787 bookings this year as it hopes to match its delivery pace with new orders by year's end in a 2018 BB rate of 1. An optimistic view, indeed. The rate production is jumping to 14 a month or 168 units a year for 2019. That number becomes an indicator it also hopes to match 787 booking by the same number. By year's end, Boeing will be hoping for around 140 units booked for maintaining of "1" BB Ratio by meeting its goal of 140 deliveries.
Saturday, April 28, 2018
American Resurgence Of The 787-8
Is Boeing deviously surging the 787-8 brand of aircraft? Is the 787-8 not dead? These questions may come up since Boeing just sold American Airlines 22 of its 787-8's. That's a whole year or two worth of 787-8 sales. It has been quite a while since Boeing last sold that many 787-8's in one day. Since then (that day) it has sold a boatload of 787-9's and 787-10's.
In fact, since the last load of 787-8's were sold, the Boeing company accomplished the last checklist item it needed. Fit the 787-8 together just like the 787-9 fits together. In other words, sections of the 787 and its associated components are built like a 787-9. Back in September 2017 as an example, Boeing announced a Japan Airlines deal for four 787-8's as previous disclosed unidentified customer booked order belonging to Japan Airlines. A slow announcing process for the 787-8, indeed.
The American Airline order just announced for 22 787-8's has the aviation world looking at that order under its scrutiny of why order well beyond the long ended Boeing introductory model. Why is Boeing investing in building the 787-8 efficiently as a 787-9?
The takeaway is the 787-8 program was essentially dead until the American Airlines order this last monthly cycle in early April 2018.
Other airlines are in the order mode with the 787-8 which are not disclosed at this time, otherwise, Boeing would not have spent time and money making the 787-8 build process uniform with its other stablemates.
There were about 60-70 frames yet to be built when the new build process was completed. Bam! then came the American 787-8 order for 22. It signals a resurgence not an end to the program, otherwise, there would be no order from American.
Boeing can build it cheaper at this time and airlines will be filling its aviation gap with the 787-8. The 787-9 is currently the moneymaker with its great airspace rush going on for long-range routes which will end by 2025. The NMA is the next airspace rush and the 787-8 will be in that mix with those fleet offerings. The second rush is for a regional 220-270 passengers capacity where the 797 and 787 will play the central role. American Airline has reawakened this market segment adventure.
In fact, since the last load of 787-8's were sold, the Boeing company accomplished the last checklist item it needed. Fit the 787-8 together just like the 787-9 fits together. In other words, sections of the 787 and its associated components are built like a 787-9. Back in September 2017 as an example, Boeing announced a Japan Airlines deal for four 787-8's as previous disclosed unidentified customer booked order belonging to Japan Airlines. A slow announcing process for the 787-8, indeed.
The American Airline order just announced for 22 787-8's has the aviation world looking at that order under its scrutiny of why order well beyond the long ended Boeing introductory model. Why is Boeing investing in building the 787-8 efficiently as a 787-9?
Boeing.com Data from January 2015 to current; Winging It Chart
The takeaway is the 787-8 program was essentially dead until the American Airlines order this last monthly cycle in early April 2018.
Other airlines are in the order mode with the 787-8 which are not disclosed at this time, otherwise, Boeing would not have spent time and money making the 787-8 build process uniform with its other stablemates.
There were about 60-70 frames yet to be built when the new build process was completed. Bam! then came the American 787-8 order for 22. It signals a resurgence not an end to the program, otherwise, there would be no order from American.
Boeing can build it cheaper at this time and airlines will be filling its aviation gap with the 787-8. The 787-9 is currently the moneymaker with its great airspace rush going on for long-range routes which will end by 2025. The NMA is the next airspace rush and the 787-8 will be in that mix with those fleet offerings. The second rush is for a regional 220-270 passengers capacity where the 797 and 787 will play the central role. American Airline has reawakened this market segment adventure.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Boeing's Order Newsreel for April 2018
Boeing has changed its reporting so Winging It has changed its reporting. Boeing used to update its book almost weekly but has deferred its reporting with a once a month each month and reports it the following next month. Otherwise, the April numbers aren't in the bag for Boeing until mid-May.
Below is the news recap of Boeing Orders reported by press accounts month-to-date. There are 261 total orders for April's month as reported by news outlets. There are about 50 787's ordered and 211 737 Max types announced during this month. These are pre airshow numbers for just one month!! It's shaping up as a big Boeing order year, as the Farnborough airshow will reveal a mountain of orders yet to come. A prediction is 600 units ordered with Boeing, by mid-year post-Farnborough.
Most of these press order announcements should be booked by Mid-May.
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
The Next GE 9X Engine will Hang From a 777-9X
Recently, as in last month, the GE corporation hung a (134" circle) engine on its 747-testbed aircraft dwarfing the 747's other engines, which were once thought to be big, But this test engine is the size of a 737 body circumference.
The point of this commentary is very little news is forthcoming on the 777 X program other than a BIG test engine hangs on a GE 747 test bed. It (engine) will fly next on a 777 X wing next year. This year is almost half over it is only about a 12-month wait until the 777X has her first flight. It is a big event for aviation nerds but the 777X program life cycle is well into its halfway point journey. It's closer to first flight than it is to the first program announcement. Boeing remains tight-lipped on the progress more by design than sensing any build problems. Customers may know more about 777X progress than the press is able to ascertain at this time the news is there but it's buried under 777X confidentiality.
The point of this commentary is very little news is forthcoming on the 777 X program other than a BIG test engine hangs on a GE 747 test bed. It (engine) will fly next on a 777 X wing next year. This year is almost half over it is only about a 12-month wait until the 777X has her first flight. It is a big event for aviation nerds but the 777X program life cycle is well into its halfway point journey. It's closer to first flight than it is to the first program announcement. Boeing remains tight-lipped on the progress more by design than sensing any build problems. Customers may know more about 777X progress than the press is able to ascertain at this time the news is there but it's buried under 777X confidentiality.
Monday, April 23, 2018
The A-350-900ULR Makes it A Space Ship
An airplane which typically seats 300 passengers is going ULR just as Boeing 787 could go ULR by cutting the seat count by half and adding 6,500 gallons of fuel capacity.
It then went and redesigned its wing making it more like a Boeing 787 crafted wing for efficient flight. Having no newer of more efficient engines, but less weight via having fewer passengers and a new wing. If calculating a passenger load for any long-range aircraft, it must start with a mass of 300 lbs per seat which includes the following: seat weight, airline supplies, passenger weight, additional crew, and luggage.
The A350-900 ULR must come to a Passenger Weight Reduction (PWR) by calculating the typical A350-900 passengers load of (306 passengers x's 300 lbs) and then subtract the PWR of (144 seats x's 300 lbs) as ULR has passengers charted. Thus equaling a Passenger Weight Reduction (PWR) of about 150 lbs per passenger per load.
Otherwise, it trims off the paying load by 300 (lbs) X's 144 passengers or 27,500 lbs. The net PWR is calculated by factoring its initial PW factor weight of 300 lbs for 91,800 lbs (A-350-900 seat number x's 300 lbs) - 46,800 (using a ULR seat number x's 300) or equaling about 27,500 lbs. The fuel increase weight of 6,500 lbs on a URL is factored from Jet A gallons equals about an additional 44,000 lbs calculated, increasing its range to about 9,500 miles from 8500 miles.
The ULR configuration increases passenger space by only allowing only 94 economy and 68 business class seats spread out over its elongated body. It's truly becoming a space-ship.
Qantas Airline has configured a standard Boeing 787-9 going the distance from Perth Australia to London England for 9,100 miles, by only seating 236 passengers but not adding an additional fuel capacity or wing upgrade. Project Sunrise from the Qantas concept has asked both airframers to come up with a solution for its own aspirations of going anywhere in Australia to anywhere in the world.
An example is the Perth to London route by it would also like using a Sydney to London proposition so passengers would not need a connecting flight to Perth from Sydney or Vice versa when going to New York City. Those are goals of Qantas but not necessarily of airline fleets found around the world. The ULR has about 67 ordered to date including Singapore Airlines order book. Its own goals have formed a strategy going east or west anywhere in the world.
Project Sunrise will create spaceships coming from both Boeing or Airbus traveling for 20 hours using a lower number of passenger capacity coming from both designs but will become an expensive proposition for everyone concerned.
It then went and redesigned its wing making it more like a Boeing 787 crafted wing for efficient flight. Having no newer of more efficient engines, but less weight via having fewer passengers and a new wing. If calculating a passenger load for any long-range aircraft, it must start with a mass of 300 lbs per seat which includes the following: seat weight, airline supplies, passenger weight, additional crew, and luggage.
The A350-900 ULR must come to a Passenger Weight Reduction (PWR) by calculating the typical A350-900 passengers load of (306 passengers x's 300 lbs) and then subtract the PWR of (144 seats x's 300 lbs) as ULR has passengers charted. Thus equaling a Passenger Weight Reduction (PWR) of about 150 lbs per passenger per load.
Otherwise, it trims off the paying load by 300 (lbs) X's 144 passengers or 27,500 lbs. The net PWR is calculated by factoring its initial PW factor weight of 300 lbs for 91,800 lbs (A-350-900 seat number x's 300 lbs) - 46,800 (using a ULR seat number x's 300) or equaling about 27,500 lbs. The fuel increase weight of 6,500 lbs on a URL is factored from Jet A gallons equals about an additional 44,000 lbs calculated, increasing its range to about 9,500 miles from 8500 miles.
The ULR configuration increases passenger space by only allowing only 94 economy and 68 business class seats spread out over its elongated body. It's truly becoming a space-ship.
Qantas Airline has configured a standard Boeing 787-9 going the distance from Perth Australia to London England for 9,100 miles, by only seating 236 passengers but not adding an additional fuel capacity or wing upgrade. Project Sunrise from the Qantas concept has asked both airframers to come up with a solution for its own aspirations of going anywhere in Australia to anywhere in the world.
An example is the Perth to London route by it would also like using a Sydney to London proposition so passengers would not need a connecting flight to Perth from Sydney or Vice versa when going to New York City. Those are goals of Qantas but not necessarily of airline fleets found around the world. The ULR has about 67 ordered to date including Singapore Airlines order book. Its own goals have formed a strategy going east or west anywhere in the world.
Project Sunrise will create spaceships coming from both Boeing or Airbus traveling for 20 hours using a lower number of passenger capacity coming from both designs but will become an expensive proposition for everyone concerned.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Rolls Royce Repair Trent 1000 Package "C"
Rolls Royce has a unique jet engine situation for which it can't fix its way out of in a timely manner. It will cost them $100's of millions for a resolution. It surrounds its engine blades wrapped around the center engine compressor found on 787's using the Trent 1000 Package C option. ANA is its top customer having 100 Rolls Royce engines needing replacing. It has begun this process which will take up to three years.
Having limited jet engine knowledge makes it better for keeping any discussion at an overview level which most readers will find enlightening. It starts at the narrow top of the symmetrical tree and goes down to the spreading branches near the base. The top, has two competing manufacturers, GE and Rolls Royce. Boeing chooses to have two engine makers because it wanted a broad range of customers who had GE or Rolls Royce fleets allowing for a purchase of its 787. Secondly, if an engine became a flawed concept the other engine maker could save the 787 program. Boeing has reached that Plan B status as the Rolls has hit a bump, and it's not as simple as swapping out Rolls Royce for a GE. It's not a literal plug and play change and the ground crew servicing a "Rolls" are not typically trained for both engine makers.
The problem starts with decomposing fan blades which is the workhorse of the jet engine for pushing air through it. Without the blades, the engine simply won't work at any altitude. The blade degradation is a serious issue. Spinning a fan blade is way more effective than spinning sticks when trying to move air.
The carbon fiber resins crack apart as optimal RPMs are reached, thus suffering a catastrophic engine power failure and endangering long-range routes on the "C" package engines from Rolls Royce.
The double edge sword view: airlines with Rolls Royce "C's" could face the cost of regrouping with GE engines, thus becoming too cost prohibitive for any operation, stressing an end for a Rolls Royce 787 engine run. Otherwise, it will also have to pay millions for any fix of the Trent 1000 package "C" engines. Starting with ANA. The second option is what is happening at this time. Customers are awaiting a Rolls solution and that may take years while in the meantime, the FAA has ordered those 787's only a 140 minute flight distance to any airport or about twelve hundred miles. Routes need to bend towards airports instead of flying straight towards its long-range destination.
A subproblem is having a Boeing 787 build processes set up for either the GE or Rolls Royce before engines are even mounted on a frame. Customers who already ordered long in advance for its engines on a 787, can opt out of the Rolls Royce easier than it could change it on a wing of an already delivered 787. Furthermore, it doesn't even consider the costs associated with an increased maintenance penalty for tooling and training of ground crews for a different engine.
Customers who have not made an engine decision with its backlogged order status have time to make an engine commitment change. Engines already flying are costly to repair or switch out with another brand, but it once again can be done at a great cost to ground operations for parts and labor already set for Rolls Royce engine maintenance.
Plan A is for Rolls Royce to change out affected parts to the problem with new parts that result in a permanent solution.
Having limited jet engine knowledge makes it better for keeping any discussion at an overview level which most readers will find enlightening. It starts at the narrow top of the symmetrical tree and goes down to the spreading branches near the base. The top, has two competing manufacturers, GE and Rolls Royce. Boeing chooses to have two engine makers because it wanted a broad range of customers who had GE or Rolls Royce fleets allowing for a purchase of its 787. Secondly, if an engine became a flawed concept the other engine maker could save the 787 program. Boeing has reached that Plan B status as the Rolls has hit a bump, and it's not as simple as swapping out Rolls Royce for a GE. It's not a literal plug and play change and the ground crew servicing a "Rolls" are not typically trained for both engine makers.
The problem starts with decomposing fan blades which is the workhorse of the jet engine for pushing air through it. Without the blades, the engine simply won't work at any altitude. The blade degradation is a serious issue. Spinning a fan blade is way more effective than spinning sticks when trying to move air.
Below stuff.co.nz photo: Fan Blades halfway there for becoming a major engine failure.
The carbon fiber resins crack apart as optimal RPMs are reached, thus suffering a catastrophic engine power failure and endangering long-range routes on the "C" package engines from Rolls Royce.
MRO Network Photo Below:
The double edge sword view: airlines with Rolls Royce "C's" could face the cost of regrouping with GE engines, thus becoming too cost prohibitive for any operation, stressing an end for a Rolls Royce 787 engine run. Otherwise, it will also have to pay millions for any fix of the Trent 1000 package "C" engines. Starting with ANA. The second option is what is happening at this time. Customers are awaiting a Rolls solution and that may take years while in the meantime, the FAA has ordered those 787's only a 140 minute flight distance to any airport or about twelve hundred miles. Routes need to bend towards airports instead of flying straight towards its long-range destination.
A subproblem is having a Boeing 787 build processes set up for either the GE or Rolls Royce before engines are even mounted on a frame. Customers who already ordered long in advance for its engines on a 787, can opt out of the Rolls Royce easier than it could change it on a wing of an already delivered 787. Furthermore, it doesn't even consider the costs associated with an increased maintenance penalty for tooling and training of ground crews for a different engine.
Customers who have not made an engine decision with its backlogged order status have time to make an engine commitment change. Engines already flying are costly to repair or switch out with another brand, but it once again can be done at a great cost to ground operations for parts and labor already set for Rolls Royce engine maintenance.
Plan A is for Rolls Royce to change out affected parts to the problem with new parts that result in a permanent solution.
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Boeing Studies Its Plate Tectonics
Plate Tectonics, subduction zone, and tsunamis are what's up with Boeing. It isn't geophysical nor episodic but it does involve the Boeing 797 NMA announcement. The handwriting is on the wall. Charleston is destined to become Boeing's main family counselor for the 787 and Boeing needs space for building almost 4,000 NMA's and 777X's. Don't forget another ten years of 777-300ER production as freight and passenger airlines replace its fleets with those types long after the 777-9X takes off from Everett next year.
Plate tectonic takes the Pacific plate and moves en mass towards the east bumping the opposing plate in its way. Sometimes it bends under the more stationary continental plate in an arcing motion downward call the subduction zone. Some may even call it the Pacific Rim where the Japanese imagined monsters come from for full-length feature films plots.
The big 100-foot high oceanic wave swallows the west coast in one surge as the 787-8 moves to Charleston, SC. from Everett which is so close to volcanos such as Mt Hood, St Helens, and Rainier located just down the interstate for any worry about sea level. The NMA will need RCP materials and autoclaves. It will also need production space which Charleston, SC can provide by moving the 787-8 eastward and out of Everett. When the 787-8 moves to Charleston, then the 797 will be announced. The notion has passed the first high-end staff meeting. The 797 customers are lined up as if in ammo boxes waiting to be loaded. The announcement is just an airshow away to be locked.
Yes, the NMA is coming and the 787-8 production is moving away from the 777X and 797 NMA build space. I'm not Boeing and I don't sit in on Boeing meetings, but I do know "X" can't happen until the 7 Late 7-late flies south.
Plate tectonic takes the Pacific plate and moves en mass towards the east bumping the opposing plate in its way. Sometimes it bends under the more stationary continental plate in an arcing motion downward call the subduction zone. Some may even call it the Pacific Rim where the Japanese imagined monsters come from for full-length feature films plots.
The big 100-foot high oceanic wave swallows the west coast in one surge as the 787-8 moves to Charleston, SC. from Everett which is so close to volcanos such as Mt Hood, St Helens, and Rainier located just down the interstate for any worry about sea level. The NMA will need RCP materials and autoclaves. It will also need production space which Charleston, SC can provide by moving the 787-8 eastward and out of Everett. When the 787-8 moves to Charleston, then the 797 will be announced. The notion has passed the first high-end staff meeting. The 797 customers are lined up as if in ammo boxes waiting to be loaded. The announcement is just an airshow away to be locked.
Yes, the NMA is coming and the 787-8 production is moving away from the 777X and 797 NMA build space. I'm not Boeing and I don't sit in on Boeing meetings, but I do know "X" can't happen until the 7 Late 7-late flies south.
Saturday, April 14, 2018
"Giving The Middle Finger"... well it starts in the middle
Airlines and its builders now have a way for fitting three across passengers in a somewhat comfortable scheme. Its called the middle seat. A place which passengers can give its fingers a place to rest amongst competing passenger space.
The staggering proposition is seated with a bigger idea. Make the middle seat bigger than its other row mates will sit-in. Examine the above video link and then give your row mate not the middle, but what makes the middle the middle, the window or aisle position. You are the ultimate middle finger of flying more comfortably and others, well, the "sidekicks" can just suck it.
The middle is no longer a vulgar gesture
The staggering proposition is seated with a bigger idea. Make the middle seat bigger than its other row mates will sit-in. Examine the above video link and then give your row mate not the middle, but what makes the middle the middle, the window or aisle position. You are the ultimate middle finger of flying more comfortably and others, well, the "sidekicks" can just suck it.
Friday, April 13, 2018
United's 787-10 Offers 4 Seats
Flight Global:
"The Chicago-based carrier will configure the 787-10 with 318 seats, split between 48 Polaris business, 21 premium economy, 45 extra-legroom economy and 208 economy, a seat map published in the 1 May update to United's flight attendant manuals and shared with FlightGlobal shows."
"The Chicago-based carrier will configure the 787-10 with 318 seats, split between 48 Polaris business, 21 premium economy, 45 extra-legroom economy and 208 economy, a seat map published in the 1 May update to United's flight attendant manuals and shared with FlightGlobal shows."
The take from this article is United Airlines is going to offer an ala-carte approach for seat tickets in four classes. The back end of the aircraft is the usual suspects. Economy!! See above and use your diet plan as to where you would be able to sit.
Thursday, April 12, 2018
American Airlines wants Its NMA
In spite of ordering 47-787 last week, American Airlines indicates a "strong" interest in the Boeing 797 product, which has yet to be announced by Boeing as it refines 797 proposals for its select and potential launch customers. American Airlines will long have received its 47th Dreamliner during 2025.
Flight Global reports, "The deal includes orders for 22 787-8s, which will arrive starting in 2020, and 25 787-9s, which will be delivered starting in 2023. Deliveries will wrap up around 2025, according to Flight Fleets Analyzer."
The 797 will tentatively start first deliveries as Boeing's NMA during or after 2025 as it has a substantial number of 767's and some 777's needing replacing on some of its 5,000 nm routes and will come off active duty from fleet aging conditions by 2025 and beyond. The NMA would likely slot-in behind those retirements at that time.
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
How's It Going In April Boeing ????
So Far so Good as... at least 185 are in the deal mode for Boeing as of April 12, 2018.
Boeing Airbus Backlog Comparison
Here it is Boeing is closing the gap on Airbus in Both units and $$. Production has reached parity for both manufacturers, but Boeing has outpaced Airbus in orders during the first quarter of 2018. This, of course, reflects a list price per unit by type.
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
March 2018 Boeing Unit Sales Report
Boeing finally reports a normal month in March excepts leaves Hawaiin Airline's 787-9's off the tally
sheet. Winging see clear sky's going forward with its bookings as some "big" orders yet remain to be booked but also have been committed. Most are concerning the 787 types. Pre Farnborough numbers
make for a solid year.
Below are Boeing website reports:
Below are Boeing website reports:
As of March 31,2018
Saturday, April 7, 2018
Now What For The 787 After American's Airline Orders 47 - 787.
American Airlines has now triggered a firm order for Boeing's 787 programs. It ordered 22 787-8's and 25 787-9's for a total of about $12 billion at list prices. It was the big break Boeing has chased since the merger American Airlines conducted when it had absorbed and accepted the former US Air's order book for 22 A350 in the merger.
Boeing was the victor after years of sales work bore this American 787 deal fruit. Not forgetting the Emirates unconfirmed 787-10 order for 40 and the Hawaain order for 10 787-10, which when booked on Boeing's website will probably push the annual bookings above 100 787 units for 2018 and give Boeing a 1400 unit program count which gives the deferred cost balance something to think about.
The "now what" for Boeing is finding another 100 widebody sales for 2019.
Boeing being bold, set a new accounting block at 1,400 hundred units before it would retired program debt and it is also announced increasing monthly 787 deliveries to a 14 a month pace. No one could predict if Boeing could pull off its pronouncement of manufacturing capability. The orders weren't there back in 2017. Then came Emirates in November 2017 for 40 787-10's and now American for 22 787-8 and 25 787-9 totaling 87 paper units. Hawaiin closes the book near a hundred units for 2018. The year has 8 1/2 more months and Farnborough is yet ahead on the calendar!
Boeing long knew it had a plan coming together last year when it announced production increase to 14 units a month. The year has yet to play out, but it now looks as if Boeing has and had gained control of the widebody market which Airbus depends on for busting Boeing's game up. It looks like it will be a long airplane war for which Boeing has gained the advantage. The market death blow and for subduing Airbus could come with a successful Boeing NMA offering, aka the 797.
Boeing was the victor after years of sales work bore this American 787 deal fruit. Not forgetting the Emirates unconfirmed 787-10 order for 40 and the Hawaain order for 10 787-10, which when booked on Boeing's website will probably push the annual bookings above 100 787 units for 2018 and give Boeing a 1400 unit program count which gives the deferred cost balance something to think about.
The "now what" for Boeing is finding another 100 widebody sales for 2019.
Boeing being bold, set a new accounting block at 1,400 hundred units before it would retired program debt and it is also announced increasing monthly 787 deliveries to a 14 a month pace. No one could predict if Boeing could pull off its pronouncement of manufacturing capability. The orders weren't there back in 2017. Then came Emirates in November 2017 for 40 787-10's and now American for 22 787-8 and 25 787-9 totaling 87 paper units. Hawaiin closes the book near a hundred units for 2018. The year has 8 1/2 more months and Farnborough is yet ahead on the calendar!
Boeing long knew it had a plan coming together last year when it announced production increase to 14 units a month. The year has yet to play out, but it now looks as if Boeing has and had gained control of the widebody market which Airbus depends on for busting Boeing's game up. It looks like it will be a long airplane war for which Boeing has gained the advantage. The market death blow and for subduing Airbus could come with a successful Boeing NMA offering, aka the 797.
Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Yep That's A 787-10 AirAsia's Benyamin Ismail is Holding
AirAsia's Benyamin Ismail holds a model of Boeing's 787-10 during his short visit to Seattle with Boeing. Sounds like Farnborough becomes the center of Boeing's attention as customers are hoving over its widebody offering before the Farnborough Airshow 2018.
Photo Linked to Skyscrapercity.com
Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Boeing's Order Book Waiting Game
It used to be by the end of each week Boeing would post current order numbers on its website. It spoiled all of us Boeing readers of its website. Airbus in return for its own convenient service, sandbagged order announcements while orchestrating its total for year-end and it seemed surprisingly always beating Boeing with a January order update from held orders. It was game on and now Boeing only announces its order book one month at a time two weeks after the former month ends. We are in April and March order numbers will come in ten days. In the meantime, there are orders that won't be reported until May already this month. Jet Airways of India just contracted with Boeing for 75 737 Max aircraft which won't show on its website until six weeks later in May for its April order number.
Expect the Hawaiian 787-9 March orders to show up in two weeks. There could be a bunch of 737 unidentified customer orders for its 737 upcoming March report. Who knows? Remember, game on!
It becomes difficult to measure the order game since Boeing is pulling an Airbus reporting once a month two weeks after the reporting month closes. It will be mid-January 2019 before the final 2018 numbers are tallied.
However what is known as reported by the press will become the new reporting methodology. You already know airshow reporting is confusing at best. Some report, commitments, and some report firm sales as commitments and the then some report gossip. It will be maddening to use an airshow for real data.
Emirates still has ordered 40 787-10 not yet firmed or reported as an order by Boeing. This should happen by year's end or at Farnborough this July. American Airline is dithering its widebody order out on a string until further notice. Now we all have to wait and see instead of using good reporting techniques from gossip.
Expect the Hawaiian 787-9 March orders to show up in two weeks. There could be a bunch of 737 unidentified customer orders for its 737 upcoming March report. Who knows? Remember, game on!
It becomes difficult to measure the order game since Boeing is pulling an Airbus reporting once a month two weeks after the reporting month closes. It will be mid-January 2019 before the final 2018 numbers are tallied.
However what is known as reported by the press will become the new reporting methodology. You already know airshow reporting is confusing at best. Some report, commitments, and some report firm sales as commitments and the then some report gossip. It will be maddening to use an airshow for real data.
Emirates still has ordered 40 787-10 not yet firmed or reported as an order by Boeing. This should happen by year's end or at Farnborough this July. American Airline is dithering its widebody order out on a string until further notice. Now we all have to wait and see instead of using good reporting techniques from gossip.
Monday, April 2, 2018
P-8 Orion Prease Go Away
A Chinese sandbank in the South China Sea defends its crabs as a P-8 Poseidon flies by with this Chinese admonition, "Please Go Away you are entering a Chinese military area and we don't want a mistake".
The US responds with: "we are in international airspace and your point is?". So goes a day on the job in the South China Sea as the Wasp and the F-35's approach. The US is holding the Trump card.
The US responds with: "we are in international airspace and your point is?". So goes a day on the job in the South China Sea as the Wasp and the F-35's approach. The US is holding the Trump card.
Starving Airline Geeks (I had a better headline but forgot it)
Aviation geeks form a whole new industry. New airplanes or at least the prospect of a new airplane churns out quantum of script about the subject which in turn churns out another trainload of paper embellishment about what a new airplane would be and another round of talking about what was just talked about and so forth. It is as if someone has lined mirrors reflecting into infinity someone’s statements about a New Medium Aircraft. I am too, am guilty of mirror gazing airline geeks into infinity at the mirror (mere) suggestion of a new aircraft.
Boeing has for a better part of a generation given fodder to the “geek” in which geeks in return assign advertising for its sage commentary. No one really makes money, but that isn’t the point, it’s all about having the real scoop on a new airplane idea. This all occurs during stage one of a geeks feeding frenzy.
Currently, phase I in a series of feeding frenzies is being experienced which is the fun phase. Everything is valid as much as it can be a stupid statement. No one gets it "wrong" until phase II, aka “The Announcement”. Stage I only has renderings, sketches, and just plain old fashion “I-told-you-so”, speculations. That is where the 797 is today. Stage II has a photo op of an airplane model on a table (at an airshow) which will generate 1,000 articles out of that frenzy.
Currently, phase I in a series of feeding frenzies is being experienced which is the fun phase. Everything is valid as much as it can be a stupid statement. No one gets it "wrong" until phase II, aka “The Announcement”. Stage I only has renderings, sketches, and just plain old fashion “I-told-you-so”, speculations. That is where the 797 is today. Stage II has a photo op of an airplane model on a table (at an airshow) which will generate 1,000 articles out of that frenzy.
Tomorrow is coming soon with an announcement near the next airshow and the Boeing’s clock is ticking on a market not waiting much longer for an NMA announcement. Once it chooses the right engine, the right facilities, and suppliers, its game on for the 797. Boeing already knows how to make an airplane from the sum of its pile of parts. It also needs money and customers. Boeing has found the money and is rounding up the last of Airbus former customers when making an announcement point at the next airshow. Parts are already in the parts bin at the Boeing facilities around the world.
The blogger then gets a crack at stage III, “The critique”. They attempt to answer Why?, What?, and Where? in some kind of blogging sense. It then becomes fun for the reader of said blogs. None of it makes real sense until stage ???. What is important at this stage is the should of-would of-could of
intelligent remarks about a concept yet to be flown. Once it does fly in tests, the rancor increases with a crescendo until Qantas flies from Perth to London on a 787-9 or Singapore takes delivery on a 787-10.
The world of blogging turns kinder and gentler with its “I told you so” commentary of how wonderful the flight was in business class with copious amounts of free food. The bloggers are so wise at the first specter of free food. Phase X is complete and onto London.
What about phase IV? This is a good blogging question for anyone retired on a pension with nothing to do but fly to Hawaii on a 787-9 in business class. Too many words so little time. Phase IV is about the first build, first flight, and first press conference. Bloggers get the first round of “I told you so’s in before something intelligent is said. Just read on and agree at this point as all geeks do in unison when an airplane is spotted.
Phase VIII is about what passengers think. They talk about food, jet lag and the lack of pillows in the economy. The airline customer talks about recalls, fixes and being in a fix during the first three years of service of a new NMA. The blogger repeats what everyone else has said whether “they” know anything or not. I’m a blogger, I know.
Phase infinity, “The Airshow”.
The airshow comes about all the time as if some kind herpes outbreak at a wedding reception. No one kisses but everyone smiles a lot. The airshow is about free advertising for whom you represent. Microphones dot tables more frequently than the latest tie and shirt posed in a photo. The airline geek is there too. A picture is taken means a blog is written about the picture. The hallway picture headlined an article about where to find the best free food at the airshow.
Some blogger took a picture of a 737 Max tail cone and talked about the overhead bins on an A-380 parked at the other end of the show. Makes sense, they know there was an airshow and not necessarily being present at the airshow.
What about Phase IX, Orders? Now that’s some real writing meat! If Boeing gets 400 orders for its NMA at Farnborough Airshow, multiply that times ten, and that’s how many orders they will book in ten years.
This is a scientific math formula derived from a blogger who went to a University one semester. First Airshow order announcement times ten equals’ program strength of 4,000 units. I too have a BS degree in business and it sounds right to me. BS stands for Blogger Smarts and it can be a business if computer savvy enough. Actually, accounting was my major and is now needed for counting orders before writing.
Therefore my scientific analysis based on statistics and rounded by regression analysis comes to about 375 NMA’s announced with 250 options at Farnborough when Boeing announces its 797. Times all this by ten years it will equal 3,750 orders and 2,500 options for its program ceiling.
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