Saturday, April 30, 2016

Boeing 787 Month Ending April 2016 Progressions.

April is ending today with Boeing meeting its projected guidance. The new significant addition is the China Eastern order for 15 787-9's as it now stands with net totals consisting of forty 787 delivered YTD and a Net of 12 787 ordered during 2016 YTD. 

See below Fig 1

Fig 1:

The Ninety Day Moving average includes a partial period of 10 a month rate while a later month rate moves to Twelve 787 a month. However, Boeing achieved a lumpy build rate during this period where March jumped to thirteen units and April dropped to ten units during April. The overall result is an eleven unit a month pace during the last Ninety days, which is spot on for this period of time and Boeing guidance.

Fig. 2

A quick look at the program recap demonstrates a stable backlog and 403 787's in the marketplace. This bodes well for both Boeing cash flows and market position for its customers, as the backlog position becomes equally critical for the customer's wait time priority as with its competitive pricing priority. 

The strength of 787-9 deliveries and the smaller 787-8 backlog (138) are the key numbers below. The 787-9 has taken over the program during this period of time and should become known as, "The Era of the 787-9".

Fig. 4

The program WIP and Delivery metric for the 787, below, illustrates a similar WIP inventory (47) than the prior month (45). This is an indicator of better space available in the process as fewer 787's remain parked outdoors after initial assembly, and more production efficiency is gained as units flow smoother  through the factory flow. The current percentage of 787-8's WIP is 43% of the inventory, and where the 787-9's equals about 57% of the WIP inventory.