Boeing, during March regained
some production pacing for the 787 program with 13 deliveries. This moved the
over-all 787 delivered at 393 units for its worldwide fleet. The 787 footprint
eclipses the Airbus 16 units for A350's delivered to date. Backlog for Boeing's 787-# slips
underneath the A350-# backlog of 761 during the first quarter 2016 as Boeing has reduced the 787
backlog to a standing 746, 787'syet to be built.
Chart 1.
The ninety day moving average had a tepid
quarter producing only at a rate of 10 units a month which falls below
guidance of 10.667 units a month. However, Boeing has positioned itself for a 12 a
month pacing the remainder of the years and should deliver about 35 787's
during second quarter 2016.
Chart 2.
Chart 3.
Boeing
787-9's are progressing towards a top position during the next three year as it
now has 98 787-9's delivered as shown in Chart 4.
Chart 4.
Production
inventory is slightly down over its former 50 + units in process, as it
now stands at only 45 units of all types in the works-in-process mode (Chart 5).
It's been about five hundred days
since the first A350-900 was delivered with Qatar Airlines. The Airbus record
shows only 16, A350-900 delivered. During Boeing's first five hundred days it
delivered about fifty 787-8's. This of course does not include Boeing's hiatus with battery fire and then shut down. A fair comparison for the two giant framers should go past another hundred days after had Boeing resumed post fire deliveries. This
will come in another blog on another day.
Fig 1.
Airbus data does not illustrate a time period "break-out" for every
100 days, where Boeing data is accessible and does so. However, a straight line
Airbus approach assumes about 5 units every 100 days until the last period
recorded only shows one delivered A350-900. For the sake of illustration,
during Airbus' first four hundred and seventy-two production and delivery day period it remains that it only delivered 16, A350-900's. While in a similar span of time,
Boeing delivered fifty 787-8's.
It is also important to note, Boeing has a more complex assembly
of technology applied to the 787. Airbus gave a technological forbearance and
went with the current level of technology proven industry wide. Boeing took
higher risks and still produced 50 787's during its first 500 days. Little
press is given for the stark contrast between the two production giants.
Upcoming is the segment of Boeing 787 groundings. Where zero 787's
were delivered during the 500-600 day time frame. However, Boeing regained its
production prowess once the grounding ended and it regained its delivery pace. A
complete comparison should include a 700 day delivery set absorbing the
grounding and any Airbus improvements or stumbles within its delivery schedule. Even though
Airbus is dependent on Zodiac seats for a timely delivery, Airbus is treating
this delay as if it were like a Boeing grounding of its delivery schedule. Both air framers have suffered delays and mishap. All things being equal this becomes a measure of
resolve over obstacles. Airbus falls on its own omission, "we are being so
careful", when in fact they cannot resolve production setbacks.
Below is an unabashed chart from Wikipedia showing the A350
delivery progress. Even though its un-official, since it does not come from
Airbus, it is an excellent thumbnail sketch with all Airbus excuses, included for how
Boeing and Airbus both delivered its product during each other's first 500 days in production. Boeing wasn't free of mishap during its first 500 days, therefore this side by side comparison in time suggest how each manufacturer was able to overcome initial start-up woes and Boeing's taller mountain climbed beat the Airbus hill by a wide margin.
Norwegian Air has 787's on the books but not fifty in play for its
Gatwick operations. Moving some 787's from other European Norwegian bases will
not account for it ever expanding fleet of 787's. The Gatwick nod for Norwegian
Air coming into its airport is a done deal. Now Norwegian will need 50 787's
for filling its slots. Therefore, more Boeing 787 orders for 2016.
"Norwegian – currently
Gatwick’s third largest airline – has announced ambitious plans to locate 50
Boeing 787 Dreamliners to serve global long haul destinations at an expanded
Gatwick.
Sputnik and Mina have taken to
the oversight of everything problematic concerning the F-35. Examples of this
type of journalism is twofold, one is soliciting clicks for sensational
rebukes of the F-35, the other comes from the river denial for anything US made
is somehow inferior to Russian made. Sputnik reports about a Chinese hacker
stealing F-35 secrets is a Chinese national hero.
Sputnik
International: "Su Bin pled guilty to conspiring
with others to break into the networks of Boeing and other
American defense contractors in a federal court in Los Angeles,
California. The hacking took place between October 2008 and March 2014,
according to prosecutors."
Hacking
is a sketchy outcome. Even with the F-35 struggling with its ALIS system fixes
clear to next year, the hackers have long since left the "terminal"mic drop (Bam).The F-35 is no longer your big
brother's F-35 it has become more like your little brothers F-35. "He is
still looking for the batteries not included" The Chinese could have
stolen developmental and conceptual engineering data, but does not have
concurrent data, which brings forward the F-35 lethality.
The Chinese version of stealth may incorporate design features of
the F-35 in a Chinese looking F-35 knock-off. However, the things that make the
F-35 scary is not its looks nor its Block I capabilities, but what follows-on in
the mad science of the JSF. In 2015 many enhancements were added to the F-35.
By 2014 "the Chinese" were caught with the F-35 hacks while it had not reached its full
capability. Many proposals were still on the table in 2014. When hacking began
in 2008 the F-35 had not found its soul or making the grade it so had desired. Hack away,
hack away and hack away all, the F-35 was "the bomb". What was stolen isn't
applicable with today's F-35. China go make your...
Chinese J-20
Stealth VTOL
What China has
learned is a conceptual purpose from the F-35, which has currently evolved beyond the
relevant range of its own J-20 capability. The Chinese engineers have probably
achieved a collective appreciationof how far they
have to go, and by the time they get there the F-35 will have to go further
forward causing some military angst. China needs hackers not in jail, but remaining
on the front lines of intellectual theft. Getting caught does not make you a
hero it makes you caught and in jail. Access denied! Concurrency confuses the Chinese as well as Lockheed.
The 787 orders have reached a
bottom lull as if it were an inverted bubble about to burst. Several noted
slips of the tongue suggest more 787 orders could be announced. One customer
has already spoke of more 787 orders in the makings, Norwegian Air and TUI have
mentioned they need more wide bodies. China is in need of further expansion from
its leading Airlines. Hainan has already filled in with 787-9 orders not noted. The
Boeing 787 backlog is rapidly shrinking making a Boeing purchase more likely as
it goes for producing twelve 787 a month. The "tea leaves" suggest a
market ready to absorb more 787 orders during 2016. So what are the ordering
stoppers and shoppers?
Ordering
Stoppers:
·Fuel
Prices staying low indefinitely
·National
economy and lower currency valuations (ex: China Market)
·Outstanding
commitments with competitor manufacturer
Ordering
Shoppers
·Profitable
2016 (China/Hainan)
·An in
place working fleet expansion built on the 787 Model.
·Threat of
rising fuel prices
·Economic
soundness (Qantas)
·Market
opportunity remains open (Norwegian Air)
·Fleet
expansion (Air India)
·2nd tier
airlines (waiting for its ship to come in) ordering has begun.
The above
bullet points are the obvious items affecting both buying or not buying the 787
in 2016. Further study could go deeper into causal reasons for both situations
determining the 2016 order book for the 787.
When fuel
price reaches a low plateau it will trigger the pent up energy for
ordering the 787. No longer can airlines wait it out using older less efficient
airframes on the low fuel price tide. A constant fuel price norm will force
airlines to eventually use up the used inventory of less efficient aircraft
where they will be forced to buy the newer more efficient aircraft. Airbus has already charted this condition and is taking the opportunity with its A330-900
offering, hoping it snips at the heels of the 787 market. Airbus already
sees a "flat fuel price market/fleet renewal condition" as it offers the A330NEO as its answer. If the fuel price climbs steeply, then the 787
will have its highest demand quotient.
The
market is in transition from the 2015 dynamics for ordering wide bodied
aircraft. The "other factor", such as reduced production backlog, hence
available production slots, are ready for the market. The internal profitability factors and fleet
opportunity, all contribute towards more 787 orders. The A330NEO is an example
of low fuel price opportunity, and the 787 is an example of higher fuel price
opportunity, and all other market conditions point towards buying the 787 first
and consider other manufacturer types second.
Market
forces will return with having a 787 choice over the A350 member of aircraft.
In light of constant low fuel prices there are too many compelling reasons for
buying the 787 offsetting the price of fuel at bottom.
From the "Johnny
English" movie fame comes a term from Mr. Bean "I'm a spent
force", from his arrogant humility coming out from super-secret agent talk
addressing his beautiful counterpart at the door. Is Boeing (being) "a Bean spent
force"? They (Boeing) have deadlines for its tanker program with only a
year to deliver 18 KC-46 Tankers. The tanker program just started flying its
test beds with two more yet to fly for this purpose. It has unanswered
solutions from tests fleet discoveries before installing remedies on the first
production flow.
Boeing
has just started first assembly of the 787-10 in Charleston, SC. Boeing has
built and flown the first Max 737-800 test aircraft. It’s also nearing
completion of the Everett wing building for the 777X program. How would a "Mr. Bean" handle all these daunting, make or break challenges? Go to the
Orient? It remains a Yes and Yes answer to those questions. Having oriental
sales and production capability would lift Boeing's wide spread programs moving
forward. With a Boeing, Being, "Bean" approach, somehow Boeing’s
great aviation convergence will meet by 2018. Boeing has a plan which contains
the number eight prolifically throughout its insanely paced catch-up over its
rival Airbus. 2018, 787 and Max 8.
In the
sport of hockey there are line changes to put the freshest player on the ice
gaining a way for superiority over the opposition. A goal is all that is
required from any line change. Boeing has flipped its leadership through
a line change at a crucial point for all its programs during the last few
months. One VP to Chicago one VP transferred in the Seattle rink. A new CEO
here and a new VP there is the line change. However, the problems remain for
Boeing. The KC-46 program is at a crucial crossroads for any hope of early
profitability. If "being" a little late, it loses hundreds of
millions for the Bean counters. There are many risks and unforeseen risks yet
to be resolved after tests have begun. There are production woes of no space
and no time to build the KC-46 on time.
The
Boeing's big wing plant opens this summer at which time, that building starts
contributing to the 777X program bottom line. It is a big cash out depository
moving into the capital valuation category. Return on the building asset is
years away. Who would buy a wing plant if it were for sale anyways? Who would
even attempt to buy the World's Largest Building somewhere in the NW rainforests for
that matter? Boeing is stuck in Everett and the new line of execs have entered the
game taking over the hand that is dealt them.
Boeing Being Bean In The Orient
737 Max
will reach first delivery as projected. The 787-10 will once again prove the
787-9 is not a one off experience. The 777X is coming months late for
covering any of its own production Gap from the 300er to the 9X, but when it comes, it will change the market. The KC-46 project
will reach completion a little late costing Boeing more millions (it's the
military stupid) but Boeing big pay day comes later where the military says the
179 tankers are a down payment for its overall tanker fleet renewal. In fact the Military will
need another 200 tankers for complete renewal over the next ten years. By then, Boeing will have the corner on
the Tanker Market, and that is what they now will spend money towards perfecting.
All in
all, Boeing Being Bean is a sound strategy, it has a new line of men and women inserted in the
game with fresh legs.
Joint Program Office (JPO) and
Lockheed programs synced
Declaration Initial Operational Capability (IOC) scheduled for the August 1 to December 31, The AKA, The IOC
Window
Work on
the latest version of the F-35’s logistics system, the Autonomic Logistics
Information System (ALIS) version 2.0.2, could delay IOC by 45 to 60
days,
Block 3i programing is reached, which the Air Force requires for IOC.
Mission
data files (MDF) implementation and testing of Block data for operational theatres where the F-35 is deployed
P & W
engine software syncing with Air Force ALIS
Retrofitting F-35A
for 9 G operations, 3 of 12 aircraft retrofit completed for the IOC flying tests where 12 are needed by August 1, 2016.
Every Family is proud of its member’s
accomplishment and valor. The stories remain a hidden resume of nerves,
steel and titanium. This is an incomplete story because I don't know all of it
by any means, since my Uncle only talked in brief cryptic tones about his
accomplishment. If he were alive today he would have a strong opinion about the
F-35. Titanium was developed on his watch with his years with Lockheed and the
SR-71 program. He started with it after the war in the late 1950's (1964
officially) and finished his career at the SR-71's retirement in 1998.
Kelly Johnson's the Skunk Works ringleader was the author of the P-38 and the instigator of the SR-71. A distinct connection to Paul Mellinger's career where he wasn't far behind Kelly's next big deal.
Kelly Johnson's P-38 Lightning Circa 1937
My uncle first flew the P-38 Lightning at the
onset of World War II against Germany. He also served in the Navy in 1940-41
and asked for a transfer to the Army Air Corps before the Pearl Harbor attack occurred.
After my uncle moved to the Army late 1941 before the infamous date of December
7, 1941. His radio man technical skill and aviation enthusiasm made him a sure
bet for the Army Air Corps, and then World War II happened and England's
wilting front needed aviators.
My Uncle Paul Mellinger far left at Beale AFB during his Lockheed assignment.
Paul Mellinger could be pictured here in this flight of Thunder Bolts
Lockheed Photo Of Paul Mellinger
His mission just got started
after four years combat pilot and closing as an Army flight instructor in
Florida until 1945. Lockheed needed skilled pilots and technical people for
building the SR-71 at the Skunk Works garage much light the P-38 Lightning
emerged from in 1937. Only 20 operational SR-71 were ever built and his job was
to keep it flying during its service years until 1998. Much like the F-35 II
Lightning both the P-38 and SR-71 had the spirit of can do under impossible odds
of making an exceptional difference in times of war. The P-38 has to change its
propeller spin to fly without crashing during an aborted take-off and the SR-71
did speed boat runs on Lake Washington testing hull designs.
The "stories" I got from both aircraft gave me a
significant appreciation for overcoming daunting obstacles encountered when
making them the most successful aircraft they became. The people who made them
made the difference by a long margin. Changes and corrections came from slide
rulers and common sense solutions. Today there are computers and more computers
who will make the F-35 take both the P-38's and SR-71's DNA forward. The DNA comes from hundreds of thousands of people who contribute to the F-35. When mounting
cannons on the F-35 for CAS functions look at the P-38 Lightning's formidable
nose with four machine guns and a 20 millimeter cannon. It evaporated
advisories in the Pacific with one burst.
During WWII a rare story recounted where the P-38 came down on a
military ammunition train, several burst later up went the munitions under the
P-38, blowing my uncle sky high during the pass. A badly damage P-38 leaking oil
made it back to England miraculously. The shock and awe of the P-38 gave my
uncle a pass home where he trained others for the fight from Florida. He
received the Distinguished Flying Cross for sitting in on the fray and
masterfully flew the Lightning. My expectations for the Lightning II comes from
that same DNA found in WWII from all those pilots who served with courage and
honor from the P-38 seat.
Lightning II has much to account for when comparing future heroic
encounters but it is built by the right stuff and will learn to change its
propeller spin from the people who are now making it fly like the F-35 advisory that
is envisioned.
Hook-up your TV to your computer and stream this story it's worth the viewing.
All my favorite aviation experts are included
in this documentary. Dominic Gates, Ray Connor and Mike Carriker just to name
a few. How the 787 prevails over its competition is from its people.
The
F-35 is staged to replace the much beloved A-10 Warthog. Boots on the
ground who currently win hard fought battles with the Warthog. The tank busting
Gatling gun with depleted uranium slice up armor as if it were shaved beef in a
steamer. The A-10 was built for protecting the pilot. Shoot a silver bullet at
it from a ground combatant insures an unrelenting neutralization by the A-10 of said
combatant.
The
question before the pentagon is what will happen when the A-10 goes to Davis
Monthan for rotting in the desert?
Will the F-35
loiter?
Can a
"silver bullet" bring it down by hitting vitals through its thin
skin?
Is a 150 million
dollar aircraft too great a risk for down and dirty combat?
Is caveman
warfare a bridge too far for the F-35?
Can electronic
situational awareness plug the gap suggested by the above questions?
These questions confound an extremely articulate warbird compared
with the bludgeoning A-10 making a battle field pass.
The F-35 cannot do as well as the A-10 in a loitering battlefield
but must make up any performing gaps through its own Trickeration. A silver
bullet from the ground could damage and cripple the 150 million aircraft from
being able to make a difference. Too many lucky shots could drive the F-35 off
the field of battle during Close Air Support (CAS).
The F-35 may compete with the A-10 in this role by flying a little
higher and relying on its targeting functions from a distance of 1 Kilometers (3,000
ft.) perch while the A-10 is flying from a 300 feet point of attack. Since the
F-35 does not have a titanium tub wrapping around the pilot while the A-10
does, the F-35 CAS needs to stand-off from a little farther out when encountering
light arms such as the fifty caliber machine guns or shoulder held missiles when engaging ground targets. The F-35 will not have a whites of your eyes combat sweeps, unless going faster
than the A-10 combat speed. The F-35 electronics need to make up the difference
when flying much faster than the A-10. That is the F-35 theory that must be
tested against the A-10 during its CAS testing.
Now you begin to experience the economy of scale when comparing
the A-10 with the F-35. The F-35 will fight faster and higher, thus not
requiring the cockpit armor where it needs it when not taking a punch from the ground, and a ground combatant would need at least a shoulder fired missile hurled at the F-35 for which it can counter the ground missile better than the A-10 is equipped. The tests for the F-35 must involve the realm it
will fight in while the A-10 is from another realm of the much lower and slower
point of attack. It would not be a fair comparison with the A-10 or the F-35
doing low and low runs. the outcome is obvious who would win. Each aircraft is equipped for a different style of
fighting, however the battlefield result must show the F-35 is more capable
than the A-10 when cleaning up the same battle field using its own optimal capability. The measure for the dueling aircraft must tests each aircraft's capability
with a summary report pointing out how the aircraft performs and achieves the
mission for which both aircraft are being tested.
The F-35 must use all its tricks and techniques to beat the A-10
and not get shot out of the air from its own weakness, or (aka) the taking a hit from the silver
bullet in its hull. The test score for both would be a measure of battlefield management from its own capabilities.
Airbus thinks to offer a super
jumbo Twin engine duo aisle aircraft because it finds itself bracketed by
Boeing up and down the Twin Aisle battle. Bracketing fire is an old war term
where artillery targeting follows towards an ultimate target with successive
rounds walking forward until it destroys its intended goal. One round goes long
then one goes short in a sequence until a round lands just right.
Bracketing definition:
(*) A method of adjusting fire in which a bracket is established by obtaining an over and a short along the spotting line, and then successively splitting the bracket in half until a target hit or desired bracket is obtained.
Airbus
has found itself in a countering position by reacting against what Boeing has
positioned itself, in the duo aisle twin engine battle. The first round by
Boeing was the 787-8 and Airbus tried a counter with its A350-800. Boeing
production has blown the A350-800 out of the water with only 16 of Airbus
A350-800's on the books and none built. Boeing then rolled out the 787-9 bracketing against the
Airbus A350-900. It has been been an equal order book match with Airbus, as it hold a
slight lead with its A350-900 over the 787-9. Then comes the A350-1000 not yet
built against the not yet built 787-10 with similar sales amounts. Boeing has now bracketed Airbus
into a corner.
Boeing
didn't stop at the 787-10, it proceeded forward with its 777-300ER with a
refreshed and updated version for its customers, and then announced the 777-8
and 777-9, while bracketing Airbus further into a dismal position. It now is scrambling on point by considering a second stretch for its A350 family with a
A350-8000 consideration, where it will may be announced at the next big airshow in 2016. The
prototypical thinking by Airbus has finally sunk all its chips on the A350 for
saving the dying A380 orders as the 777-9 may undercut the A380 market
entirely. Emirates made a huge 777-9 order when it plans on retiring of some of its A380's
when it receives the newly minted 777-9's in 2019.
The
counter by Airbus is an A350-8000 for saving its own wide body episode from
Boeing's long planned bracketing with its family of aircraft. First type dying
will be the A380 and then any forlorn attempt by Airbus countermeasure is for making an
A350-8000. The 8,000 would not beat the 777-9 but it would beat the 777-8 seat
count. However, with a distancing measure, Boeing would win over any A350-8000,
but Airbus only wants a place at the table and would concede distance battle to
Boeing. There are other obstacles confronting Airbus such as Boeing's patented
folding wing.
Boeing
long ago planned the war against Airbus and made plans with proprietary design
points. Airbus could not match or even use it for engineering a long distance wing. An Airbus
A350-8000 wing would not be a folding wing. A wing of this type allows its
777's to slot into airports as before they would not have to modify any jet ways.
Airbus would have to slot its A350-8000 into the same slots built for its
A380 causing a problem with airport congestion, if Airbus reaches any sales
orders for its proposal. They would definitely not have a folding wing which would open up all the world routes flown by the 777-300ER and future 777-9's.
Not
having a folding wing could be an Airbus show stopper, as Boeing had to
conceive and patent the folding wing, as it knew from studies, it could not
change customer airports just because of the 777X family of aircraft large wing configurations.
The A350-8000 must have an “airport compliant wing” not limiting where it could
dock its aircraft. The A350-8000 becomes a desperate effort by Airbus to save
both its A350 family and A380 stand-alone, and that is asking too much out of its one
underperforming aircraft and not having a wing to go the distance against the 777-9's entry into service
during 2019.
Somewhere halfway between Boeing
and Airbus is Tim Clark of Emirates. He is the real game changer as he mulls
over the 787 vs the A350 and spins another plate called the A380NEO. Even
though a behemoth, the A380NEO has not been offered as of yet, it may come. Clark has
another 65 A380's yet to be delivered, as it is more than halfway through its A380
order book. Some of those early delivered A380's for Emirates are approaching a
fleet renewal status during the next five to ten years.
Clark
wants to buy more A380's in a NEO package. Airbus does not want to build an
A380NEO unless enough demand is made. Tim Clark and Emirates can change the
game for Airbus, but can it change the game for Boeing? The current
consideration is for more 787-9's and 10's against the A350's and that has a history
from Emirates when it canceled 70 A350's. I can't second guess the Clark strategy, even if
having any insider tip (I don't), but can use history to infer a preference.
The A350-1000 or 8000 is further behind the A350-900 it had already
cancelled. Therefore making, the A350-900 or any other WB twin engine from Airbus less
likely.
Boeing
has finally achieved a smaller production backlog with its 787 than the current A350
backlog, while Boeing is building more 787 each month than Airbus can produce.
Boeing needs 787 orders at this time and will price its 787 at a lower cost while matching its
need for new sales. Airbus would have a difficult time pricing the A350 low
enough until its own productivity increases in three more years. Boeing, in
three more years may have a 450 unit, 787 backlog, unless more orders are booked
in the interim period. Prices are offered with Boeing's premium customers and will have a special place for any block orders. Boeing will be producing the 787-10 efficiently when an order
from Emirates could be assimilated. In this case, Boeing has the marketing high
ground and it aims to use it.
Clark has
a finite career duration, which may reach an end before he can convince Airbus
to gamble its resources on an A380 NEO program. The backlog of classic 380's is
shrinking, while its ordering members are keeping an eye out for an opportunity of any booked
cancellations, even before they roll off the production floor. The
A380 NEO will go forward if Clark can change Airbus' game, if not, more Boeing
787's will be ordered. An Emirate A350
order suggest the A380 NEO will come to Clark as part of the package. Tim Clark
is obsessed with the A380 model and will use the A350 to get it. However, having a "no" A380 NEO
order becomes an Emirates/Boeing 787 order.
Recapping Airbus: ... is
counting on its A380. There are 65, A380's in Emirates' backlog. This also
represents a significant quantity of all undelivered A380's. Airbus has about
139, A380's in the backlog making Emirates about a 47% backlog stakeholder.
This is the lever Clark is pulling and using for a tantalizing 200-A380 unit order. It may convert 25 of its A380 classic backlog into new NEO orders and then
add about 175 NEO's to its order book, making it the 200 A380’s Clark wants.
This would cost Airbus developing a new program for the world's largest aircraft for which
Emirates would be its only customer at this time. If that is the case, the A380
program cannot hide its failure from the NEO program. There are not enough profitable
routes existing for this aircraft, a long held Boeing contention.
The game
changing Clark may not succeed in getting his A380's as it may break Airbus'
financial back to complete his dream. In which case Boeing may see another 100 787=9's and 787-10's
coming its way via the Emirate order book.
Having a second take regarding MIC or AKA: Military
Industrial Complex only addresses the aviation segment, and more specifically The
F-35 program. The naysayers are legion concerning the Lightning II. It’s versions
A, B, C have ginormous problems calling for its demise. The naysayers are
calling for the nuclear option for the programs and demand stopping it in its tracks. My
own instincts tell me with even the evidence at hand the F-35 will reach its
promise, and doesn’t have to go Mach 2.5 to be effective.
The F-35 idea was not based on traditional emphasis for speed or maneuverability
during dogfights, it was the sum of all its parts overwhelming any potential advisory.
Those who want sharper turns and faster accelerations have already missed the
point for the F-35 concept. Those who cite constant programing failures or its
flawed system alignments have also a dependency with regard for instant
gratification.
What is behind all this mess? The number one issue is the
F-35 complexity of concept. It has a Star Wars theme on a Wright Brothers tradition
calling for its scrapping. However, the reality is somewhere in between models
A, B, C. The Marines needed something better than the Harrier and they got it
first. The Air Force needed it in numbers immediately, and that too has started the
production rollout in numbers, but not all was matured by the process as they
needed a new term for the press, and it became concurrency. The F-35 will have the
latest and best version in the next 35 years, hence the name F-35.
The Navy has to populate the decks of the Gerald R Ford CVN 78, with the version F-35C, so they are waiting for those Block III’s in the developmental
concurrent build process while the Ford goes through its yearlong trial pacing, and
hopefully joining up with an updated F-35C by 2017. A second carrier following
the "Ford" is a forthcoming as CVN 79 in several more years. Time has been made for
the F-35C. The Marines have its Harrier replacement and awaits maturation for its F-35B in active duty while it can/will use this supersonic jump jet from off its Marine
Expeditionary Forces fleet decks and bases. The Marines have gained a fantastic
advantage with an averaged version for the F-35. This ever so complex aircraft
is just average at this time. Without ever changing wings, fuselage or any
other aerodynamic points, miraculous change will come from within by morphing the F-35
into a thirty year ahead of its time warfighter.
Those F-35 glitches are causing more of a perception problem
for the F-35 than having a real "never will be able to resolve the F-35 problem", thus the trashing of the
program is demanded. The testing regimen has eliminated hundreds of to-do fixes for the
complex fighter.
If this fighter rolled out problem free in 2010, then the suspicion
becomes, then the F-35 must of fallen short of becoming a superior warfighter. Or if the F-35
resembles a continuous series of problems making and meeting its overarching
goals, then they have a Superior program always improving.
The F-35 is not beyond engineering capabilities but well within those
capabilities, but it becomes a matter of the longtime process of making the most
complex fighter ever built.The F-22, is a very fast and stealthy fighter, laid down the
proven mantel the F-35 has taken up. Everything learned from the former is
exponential for the latter.
The F-22 has proven to be unmatched in the world
today and to come for the next many years. The F-35 has its reduced speed for
long range strike abilities the F-22 can’t match. The F-35 is too tricky to
catch and defeat at any speed. The advanced architecture allows an advancement
to the aircraft without changing its stealth design or its natural frame avionics.
It just becomes better and better as it ages. It’s unfortunate others has
missed this point and want to kill it. Even a baby at birth isn’t ready to run in
the Olympics. Part I Link:
Often the term too big to fail is used by government
thinkers when describing the next big bail out. It could be GM, Chrysler or the
Financial Markets. They can’t fail because it represent too much of the America’s
economy. In another arena is the defense industry, when old thinking will put
America at risk and the same notion by government is applied to military
acquisition models where it assumes it needs a competition for the best
military capability in the world. The US government has assumed the role being
the Military Industrial Complex’s (MIC) Maestro. In fact, they have weighed its
decision-making based on how a losing bid may be affected and incentivize others keeping them from not participating into future competitions, or securing a prospective bidder so it may
not drop out from making any future bid submissions.
The Defense Department may lose its objectivity towards
selecting new weapons systems, ignoring what would work best. A lost bid participant would become a victim from the Maestro’s nullification process for optimizing MIC while maintaining a bidder's continuos participation.
Therefore, the natural
process of survival of the fittest is no longer a determiner, but instead becomes
dependent of the Maestro’s selection process. This weakens the whole MIC process
into a Jell-O like state.
Boeing lost the F-35 fight to Lockheed-Martin. Boeing
lost the LRSB-21 fight to Northrop, and GE lost several fights to Pratt and
Whitney in Both the F-35 and LRSB-21 programs. However, the Government has a concern about both Boeing and GE as the “losing bidders”, but it refers back to the
acquisition process as the culprit for these MIC loss bid participants.
Boeing is moving
towards a Jell-O state when it comes military ventures. The commercial side has
become its profitable mechanism. The Maestro has a difficult time making
everyone satisfied.
The balancing action for preserving the flying selection process may cloud Maestro objectivity going forward, as it nurtured ignored subcontractors along, rather than defend America to the best of its ability.
Boeing protested the LRSB-21 and the F-35 as the complaining participant. They
have a whole Department of Complaints stocked with lawyers and subject matter
experts for this function.
It’s part of the cost the Maestro must endure for every
award. The LRSB award will have a taxpayer costs associated with Boeing’s
protest, albeit it became a no contest unfolding from the Maestro decision making. It’s part of
the acquisition process and is expected. In fact Boeing beat in receiving a
favorable decision from the Government for its KC-46 tanker project. The
Maestro biffed the award process through inappropriate valuations points towards
Airbus, a foreign bidder for an American war fighting machine.
When the US was seeking a “Hummer” pre Gulf wars, it went
with a homespun machine maker, and did not go with somebody like Mercedes Benz
of Germany. The lesson learned from the KC-46 bid award s that the Maestro must
use American offerings when it comes to making its war machines, and it will rely
on a balanced award process equalizing the bidder reward so they won't disappear from
the government’s manipulations.
The lesson here is that each MIC participant is too big
to fail while each bidder must have an equally capable offering with any other bid, allowing the government for keeping the way for the MIC to remain in balance.
Fortunately, Boeing and GE had an extremely strong private sector businesses
with its commercial aviation, and that allowed the government consecutive awards
for Lockheed Martin, Pratt & Whitney and Northrop issuing its two richest bid awards
without starving out Boeing or GE. The LRSB-21 and F-35 programs were billions,
but the 787 and its engines were billions too. The Maestro put MIC on the couch and
balanced its complex. Part II Link:
It's time for “Second Line
Defense” offering, an F-35 Yearbook. In its 62 page document is presented a
clean and positive view for the F-35 during 2015. No negatives or mishaps are
reported while it becomes the hope of the program as reported. Having no hull
losses in 2015 or epic failures is a clean year in itself.
See bottom of page and open flip reader for full report:
Reading
the pages (report link found bottom of page) shows F-35 hopes for the future
from 2015 performance. Includes an understanding definition for concurrency.
Why buy the F-35 when USA's
borders are adjacent to 90% of Canada's population? On October 1, 2015 the
Liberal government claimed itself dependent on American Taxpayers who are
paying for the F-35 program. They didn't want the 65 F-35's it had ordered, and
prefers a token Fourth Generation Fighter Jet for its own Air Force. Why buy the F-35 when
the US is next door, is a liberal sentiment. Let the US Taxpayers pay for our
defense. The F-35 is an advanced strike aircraft, and after all who is Canada
going to strike?
Canadian Air Force CF-18
Canada
will pride itself living on the American Military Complex shadow welfare, by not buying the
F-35, since it does not think it needs an advanced Strike capability after
being luxuriously situated alongside its high priced neighbors. The Justin
Trudeau government likes military welfare over warfare. It will eventually not
have a competent Air Force that will even match Norway's level (F-35’s) of
capability. Why buy the F-35 when our southern neighbors will have so many, and they will
defend Canada with the last US dollar wrung from Taxpayers hands?
For every F-35 purchased your pilot has this $400,000 Helmet:
Can this
get any uglier from a liberal government? Canada has always desired autonomy
from the US sphere of influence, and they could get it soon. Its Zip code is in
the Northern Hemisphere, but they have taken a Central American attitude knowing
the US will come to its beck and call during any international incursion (A defense
treaty with America is cheaper than one F-35). "Why buy the F-35", is the liberal battle cry?
Canada would rather manage its Provincial Parks and resorts than defend itself
with the next generation of warfighters. America will defend us anyways, calls
out Trudeau, even if it gets really sticky.
So don't
buy the F-35 while Canada can enjoy its freedoms with the arm's length security
America offers. However, Canada may make a $32.9 million (not sure if in
Canadian Dollars) payment to the F-35 program as contracted, keeping alive the
idea the F-35 is a possibility and just in case things get sticky by the end of 2016 for what the payment period covers. Russia is
equipped well and China is rapidly closing the militarization gap with its fifth
generation fighters. Where Canada is only one aerial tanker refueling away from these possible confrontations. But who would want to attack Canada's beautiful Provincial Park
system? An F-35 is not needed,eh!
Trudeau's ForeignPolicy statement: "We have
old junk (CF-18's) to defend Canada, having a standing TurboTax® software upgrades continuously piped in."
"Eh, what is a CF-18?", as called out from a concerned Hockey fan from far away Calgary?
Trudeau Policy statement continues with: "It has two jet engines
and stuff. It looks like the US version of the F/A-18 Hornet only dumbed down
per US military request. It has a Maple leaf painted on the Tail, please look at your brochure for additional information and pictures, and thank you for the question"
Hockey fans replies, "We're good, eh?"
Trudeau Closes: "Therefore, It's essentially the same Fighter the US will may "retire" after the F-35 becomes operational in greater numbers during the next five to ten years.
However, with the equipment on hand, Canada could possibly defend itself
from adversarial fifth generation fighters coming from China and Russia... maybe?
When/If "they" attack our Provincial Parks, the US will be pleased to ask for use of our military airfields and defend us anyways. We don't need no stinking F-35 (throat clears), the US has us
covered with this year's $32.9 million F-35 program payment."