Friday, June 27, 2014

Three Month Moving Average Bears Its Fruit.

The lumpiness of monthly delivery where one month, 6 are delivered, and then 8 does not represent the pent up energy for deliveries. The flight-line gets crowed and then emptied on a periodic basis. The investor can lose track or become confused to what Boeing tells the stock holders. So a three month average is more soothing to the nerves than a month to month expression of fear. What does Boeing deliver during a three month period is more indicative than a Monthly count and average. Hence the quarterly report is on its cusp, as we all approach the end of June. The three month Moving Average for delivery will tell a lot at quarters end. It is the summation of all effort, trails and tribulations. I hope to answer one primary question does Boeing reach its 10 a month rate to its customers?

Goal +/-                          04/2014    05/2014          Projecting      June (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries               8               10              10              15                     5
3 M-M-avg                         7.33            8.33           9.33          11.                  +2.67
Production Goal               10               10.             10               10                    0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -2.67            -1.67                   -.67             +1. /Target     >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                                   PM-End
*Progression Month
**Moving Average Progression

The quarter ending push has three more ready for delivery on the books and they should deliver.

This is a preliminary statistic before the end of the Month allowing the three remaining "ready to be delivered" aircraft counted since the Air new Zealand 787-9 will be delivered in June and the two other 787-8's that are ready, will be delivered by  Month end. The above chart will be updated, if delivery is not made by June 30th on those 3 projected June deliveries.

What does a 11 moving average means to anyone watching. 

  • There were 33 787's delivered in the quarter.
  • Boeing exceeds its promise of 10 a month during the 2nd Quarter
  • Things are not as bad as the press would have it for Boeing.
  • Every glitch expected or unexpected is solved in a continuous flow.
  • Factory wrenches are accounted for each day.
  • South Carolina or Charleston is a significant player.
  • Boeing commitment to Charleston is paying off.
Invest forward is the common theme.