Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Paris Day Three On The Fly

A settled in day for the Airshow. When all numbers are added and changes made, there will be a comparison with the Airbus order Tally. All numbers in charts are reported as posted by news organisations. 

However, some revision to order count and status will be updated when Boeing and Airbus reports at the beginning of next July month. Day 3 had 9.89 billion paper documents for Boeing aircraft under a purchasing intent. The "various" intents were lumped together on the Max 7 column. This will change once everything sorts out. However, 82 paper documented airplanes were tallied for Boeing's Day 3 count, which is significantly more than the Airbus Tally. 

The paper MOU or intents may turn into real orders by year's end. Airbus posted mostly orders and not many intent aircraft, but it still showed a decline in orders from the last Paris Airshow in 2015. The big item is the 737 Max 10 which will include many order book revisions when changing from a Max 8 order (example) posted earlier and turning it into a Max 10 order at the show. There is a significant revenue increase when a conversion is made going to the Max 10 from a prior ordered 737. 

The units may not change in these cases but dollar value does change significantly so the ultimate net unit book during the airshow will take until the end of month before numbers for Boeing are accurately counted.
  
Fig. 1 Day 3 Subtotal


Fig. 2 Show Total


Yikes, Boeing won the show on paper when it signed for over 624 single aisle in various stages of a deals. The list value is used for the calculation making $90.91 Billion for its paper sales. Look at the 737 Max -10 column for 326 units noting its an airplane not even built or tested. Impressive indeed, as most of the MOU units will turn into booked orders. What further analysis will bear out is how many 737 Max 10's feed from the prior order bookings of early Max units purchase from prior periods before the show. A surprising count is the number of Max -8 airshow orders committed.  The drain from conversions from Max pool going to the 737-Max -10 column is offset by new orders, MOU's and commitments from 297 units collected from the "other" Max columns not called 737Max-10, is a testament for the Boeing Single aisle program, obtaining a significant boost when chasing the Airbus order book. It will not catch the Airbus single aisle backlog at this time, but Boeing has closed a significant gap with Airbus' single aisle order book.

Airshow To date,  Boeing snagged 681 airplane units for all types. Whether all will make it to the Boeing book remains to be seen. It is an impression this is a strong marker to come for future orders in the single aisle area. The 328 737-10's asked for, could double in number by completion of year 3 from its launch at the Paris show, thus making the Boeing gamble a winning bet.