Thursday, June 22, 2017

Day 4 Paris, Is it a Order Wrap?

On day 4 of the Paris Airshow, the reporting has diluted the purchase classifications concerning purchases, MOU's and Commitments. The Winging It order listing may not even consider the Purchase-conversions of the 737-10 model. But Winging It has been following the airshow news as it occurs and is reported on the day, therefore later analysis shows a disparity from these charts to what others are now reporting.

Below is a day 4 recap for happened to Boeing at the show. It was considered a slow day but at any other airshow day, 125 Max 8's purchased would dominate the headlines. Over-all day 4 produce another 30 737-10's as on-paper orders.

Fig.1 Day 4 Boeing Transactions:

The below Figure 2. depicts a robust expected down year for Boeing's paper order book. A paper order is any firmed purchase, MOU (commitment) or conversion (from one model turning into another). Winging It listed a 97.3 billion paper shuffle for 836 units. 

Not all these units will turn to a firm purchase in the upcoming year(s). It is probable Winging It missed some sales classification where it missed 214 737-10 purchase conversions during the show.  Those 214 purchase-conversions were not always clearly reported and Winging It came up with only 50 737-10 purchase conversions. 

The press finally reported 147 direct 737-10 purchases, thus totaling about 358 737-10's in play for Boeing. That in itself is a good launch and will turn into further net orders going forward.  

Fig 2. Airshow summary to date:

Below in Figure 3, is the firm purchases for the 737-Max 10 as reported during the show. It is inaccurate since there are far more purchase-conversion than stated during the show. It has been reported that there are  214 purchase conversions for the Max 10 from prior Max orders already booked. 

Winging It shows only 50 of those types of transaction. Winging It must of missed 164 of those purchase-conversions and list them as a net purchase for that type. Apologies are offered if confused. Another item in Figure 2 shows 22 commitments for the Max family without assigning the type. This condition assumes a Max 8 when in fact there could be some Max 9 & 10's in that number, thus skewing the Winging it count. However, all-in-all, the 737-10 paper booked about 358-361 units.   

Reports now have been submitted revealing there were 147 firm 737-10 orders. Winging It shows 163 firmed purchases. Somewhere Winging It must of over reported this number by 16 units. This is due to reporting an order earlier when it may have been clarified as a MOU or commitment.

Fig.3 Purchase record as reported at the end of each day. Subject to reclassifying the document class

Figure 4 The Purchase Winging It Purchase-Conversion list for the 737 Max 10