Thursday, June 29, 2017

Its Been Reported BOC buys 4-787-9's

The Chinese leasing company, BOC just filled an order for four 787-9 rated at list prices for $1.08 billion.

The bigger news is that Boeing has taken in about 112 787 firm orders booked year to-date counting PAS for 33 firm, Singapore Air (unidentified for 19 dash 10's) and the new BOC order for 4 787-9's. Adding up all the orders brings Boeing to a remarkable 787 order year with 112 orders for all its type of 787's. There is another six months to go and the Dubai airshow ahead which may enhance Boeing's 787 order book further. 

Winging It 787 numbers now stand at: 1,312 787 ordered for the program and 747 deliveries to make with 565 787's already delivered in five years.

Fig. 1 Winging It Score Card

Paris Air Show 2017 -Boeing-Checking It Twice Report

Below is a "checking it twice list" from the Paris Airshow 2017 with paper transactions and associated list price totals for each transaction type.

By the numbers:

  • There were 147 direct agreements for the 737-Max 10
  • There were 214 737-Max 10's converted from prior purchases/agreements, typically from previous Max 8's transactions. 
  • There are 361 units of Max-10's identified at the show with paper agreements
  • 56 wide bodies were purchased or agreed upon.

How was it checked? A lot of searching was done from airshow press reports where Winging It listed each report. Then it double checked with multiple sources what happened at the Paris Airshow this year without an exclusive confirmation from Boeing. Winging  It will wait for Boeing's monthly updates on its Orders and Deliveries website found at Flight Global was the final choice for comparing numbers. Winging It numbers came very close to those number and it adjusted its total according to further verification from press reports to Flight Global reporting.

Below is the "Checking It Twice List" from a confusing show. So much happened and so little time during the show. This record is for future research and use for keeping track of the orders, commitments and the conversions mess encountered by Boeing during the show. There may be other sources conflicting with these totals through interpretation of what is meant by all the show notations. 

However, a new category occured called, "Identified". During some transaction coming from the past, even before the show occured, a deal was struck but the customer remained unidentified on the Boeing order book. Now a big show comes along and said unidentified customer wants exposure at the Paris Airshow 2017. They identified an already made purchases (firmed) by coming out and publicly expressing its purchase made before the show.  This action gives exposure among members of the Aviation Industry and public, thus the label "Identified"(at the show) where a classification emerges from a prior "undisclosed customer" list from Boeing's order books.

Figures are checked against Flight Global "Who Bought What" (Free subscription required) recapping PAS 2017

Fig 2. 737-10 roll call added booked units

Fig. 3 Total Units/value by model

Monday, June 26, 2017

Boeing's Website Says

Boeing just posted numbers today on its website. Link Here for what was listed. Some came from the airshow and some came from hanging orders not yet booked. A key item is the unidentified 20 777X and the 19 737-10's boosting the Boeing wide body count for 2017, and this was not part of the Paris Airshow. Singapore Air is the 800 pound gorilla in the room no one notices. The Unidentified wide body 787/777's happens to be exactly what Singapore Air ordered weeks before when it didn't show in Boeing's order books. This is a post-show boost for Boeing. Fifteen other 737's were added and presumed to be not part of the Paris show. Below is the list of additions from its books today.

Figure 1. Monday, June 26, 2017 Book Additions!

Boeing will now have booked 75 787's this year before the Dubai Airshow. has added 76 wide body aircraft to its books today.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Say It Ain't So, The queen of the sky dies?

The 747-8 days are numbered and is found wanting, for a place in the airshow line. The Airbus A-380 has become a stubborn step-child to the 747-8. It wants so bad to even have a hundred more sales as its backlog dips near 100 units before it will too have to move on. Emirates wants a do-over A-380 for its business case. Boeing is selling twin engine behemoths as Airbus dithers with its A-380 make-over. The 747 program has lost its premier standing with Boeing and it goes to the desert in southwestern US for its retirement.

Boeing is resting its case for the four engine Jumbo Jet. The 777-9X will have to do with seating over 400 passengers. The Airbus A350-1000 can't compete with the  9X's measurables. Airbus may sit on its A-380 laurels too long. Boeing is anxious to move on as it announces it will shift towards the twin engines exclusively. John Leahy from Airbus retires this fall as a job well done for its payroll. 

Airbus, John Leahy and the A-380
Image result for John Leahy
Photo credit Leeham News

Now who will take the sarcasm from Winging It? I do admire his biased ad nauseum for Airbus products. He could turn a good argument his way messing with data. His presence will be missed as Boeing's antagonist. 

The world market place will have choices to make when buying aircraft. Boeing has been working during the last 20 years for making a family case. Like any good mentor it has sloughed off a 757, reached for the moon with the 787, and reinvented the 777. No one path was chosen for  its Renaissance. The 737 remake and 777X merging with 787 sensibility only lacks a New Medium Aircraft (NMA 797). 

Boeing is working on that family member with something new, something old, something borrowed and something blue. The enigma for a NMA makes blogging enjoyable. An oval profile is built with the passenger in mind and will it not be a Swiss Army Knife concept that will carry 500 people and 500 tons of freight at the same. It is being built for passenger space, range and efficiency and bulky freight can take a hike via other Boeing aircraft. A gamble indeed as aircraft have been ruling with multi functionality for the last decades. The 797 has one job to make copious amounts of money for Boeing and its customers. Its a family thing.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Paris Airshow, The Calm After The Storm (Updated show numbers**)

The show's business is completed and the CEO's are back on the manufacturing farm. Winging It is taking a stab at making a snapshot list of what just happened with Boeing at the show. A prior article was written using the same charts but some updates were made and a net Book value based on list prices is added.

Direct purchases and MOU's are added in the net column at the stated show value. The "Purchase-Conversion" transactions are netted out as those numbers replace a prior booked value from prior purchases over the course of multiple periods. Even though a working number for the show has been reported between 78 and 73 billion, Winging It has taken a different tack since all deals will be completed in the up-coming months. 

Figure 1. is a recount of what Winging It thinks just happened to the Boeing order book from the Paris Airshow.

Fig. 1 Updated 6-14-2017 with 125 undisclosed Max 8's for $14.1 Billion from the error of 1.4 Billion reported earlier. This updated gross booked total to $104 Billion and the net total $81 Billion. Thanks for your patience for any errors made during the airshow and after.

Fig 2. (click inside a chart for an expanded view.)

The above chart is an example of the "Purchase-Conversion" part of the show. There were 214 of the 737-10 ordered in this manner. Winging It assumes all prior purchases were for the 737-MAX 8 and were converted into the 737-MAX-10's in this case. There were reported about 147 direct 737-10 purchases and those were added to the book at list value for 124 million each, thus making it part of the gross billion number. 

The netted number is factored when Winging It assumes a List price of 112.8 million per 737-Max 8 as already booked before the show, and is now turned into a 124 million per Max-10 booked at the show. The net incremental change uses 214 units, increasing the book by $2.44 billion. 

The total for the gross purchase-conversions of transactions represents about $25.6 Billion dollars for the Max-10, increasing the book by only a net $2.44 billion.

If Boeing did write-up (purchase/MOU) about 150 units directly for the 737-10, then those would add about $18 billion is sales for this type at the show. All-in-all, Boeing netted about $20.5 billion to its books from the 737-Max 10.

Boeing wrote paper for a gross of about $104 Billion with a net book value of about $81 billion. It could be that there were some missed announcements and deals during the show, since it was even crazy for the plane framers to keep track. At the end of it all, waiting for final numbers will come during the first ten days of July from both Airbus and Boeing. Having stated that, Airbus knows it lost and Boeing has a lot of momentum going forward. 

There are several large and hanging Boeing transactions not announced at the show and those deals may be announced at Dubai this fall. Keep on keeping on and the next Airshow should settle the year.

Wondering why Winging It is in variance with press reports is a concern since many report Boeing had 571 units in sales for $79 billion booked. I had reported the list of Airshow transactions as reported and entered it into a chart using list prices and came up with an abundance of dollar value.

After looking at the data the Purchase-conversions were not included in the chart, thus showing 613 units for the charts. The unit number is 42 units higher than the reported show number of 571 units, however the Value total is in line with reported show totals of $79 billion. Refer to Figure 3 below for the adjusted Winging It chart and a closer reported result.

Fig. 3

Is the 42 difference due to 42 CDB units as a mislabeled transaction (help would be nice for correcting the charts)? Somewhere the data is reported differently at the end of the show than what was reported by various sources during the show. We all will have to wait when Boeing issues its reports next month. 

Additionally, the chart records 10 more 737-10's as a direct purchase with 157 when final show numbers report 147. 

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Day 4 Paris, Is it a Order Wrap?

On day 4 of the Paris Airshow, the reporting has diluted the purchase classifications concerning purchases, MOU's and Commitments. The Winging It order listing may not even consider the Purchase-conversions of the 737-10 model. But Winging It has been following the airshow news as it occurs and is reported on the day, therefore later analysis shows a disparity from these charts to what others are now reporting.

Below is a day 4 recap for happened to Boeing at the show. It was considered a slow day but at any other airshow day, 125 Max 8's purchased would dominate the headlines. Over-all day 4 produce another 30 737-10's as on-paper orders.

Fig.1 Day 4 Boeing Transactions:

The below Figure 2. depicts a robust expected down year for Boeing's paper order book. A paper order is any firmed purchase, MOU (commitment) or conversion (from one model turning into another). Winging It listed a 97.3 billion paper shuffle for 836 units. 

Not all these units will turn to a firm purchase in the upcoming year(s). It is probable Winging It missed some sales classification where it missed 214 737-10 purchase conversions during the show.  Those 214 purchase-conversions were not always clearly reported and Winging It came up with only 50 737-10 purchase conversions. 

The press finally reported 147 direct 737-10 purchases, thus totaling about 358 737-10's in play for Boeing. That in itself is a good launch and will turn into further net orders going forward.  

Fig 2. Airshow summary to date:

Below in Figure 3, is the firm purchases for the 737-Max 10 as reported during the show. It is inaccurate since there are far more purchase-conversion than stated during the show. It has been reported that there are  214 purchase conversions for the Max 10 from prior Max orders already booked. 

Winging It shows only 50 of those types of transaction. Winging It must of missed 164 of those purchase-conversions and list them as a net purchase for that type. Apologies are offered if confused. Another item in Figure 2 shows 22 commitments for the Max family without assigning the type. This condition assumes a Max 8 when in fact there could be some Max 9 & 10's in that number, thus skewing the Winging it count. However, all-in-all, the 737-10 paper booked about 358-361 units.   

Reports now have been submitted revealing there were 147 firm 737-10 orders. Winging It shows 163 firmed purchases. Somewhere Winging It must of over reported this number by 16 units. This is due to reporting an order earlier when it may have been clarified as a MOU or commitment.

Fig.3 Purchase record as reported at the end of each day. Subject to reclassifying the document class

Figure 4 The Purchase Winging It Purchase-Conversion list for the 737 Max 10

The Boeing 797 Strategic Concept

Boeing has for many a year, in the last decade considered a middle of the market aircraft replacing its long beloved 757-767 aircraft line. The day it stopped building the 757 is the day "strategic planning" arose from Boeing's nomenclature. The strategic airplane would be built as an untouchable from its competitor. Long has the A321 become an Airbus sweet spot for orders. Boeing was too late to the market with a competitive product. Boeing has the 787 X's 3 to build and the 737 Max X's 4, coupled with the 777X X's 2 models in the game plan.

Strategic Points:

  • Boeing needed a family of Aircraft First
  • Boeing needed a technological quantum leap Second
  • Finally, Boeing needed Airbus chasing its program rainbow 
The only thing in the way of Boeing starting its New Medium Aircraft (NMA) is program completion for an unleashing of its combined resources on a NMA program. The 777X is stopping an NMA try for Boeing. Resources have shifted to its 737-10, 777-8X and 777-9X programs. There is residual work to be done  on the Max 8 and Max 9 starting with production capability and its testing regimen. The 777X program starts in earnest next year. All this conflagration at Boeing R&D leaves the NMA program playing a guessing game with its Airbus competitor and Boeing's customers. 

Boeing must contend with strategic inputs for the NMA program such as telling its customers they will build a 220-270 seat aircraft going 5,200 miles. If Boeing's customers are given detailed information then Airbus will get the same detailed Boeing information. It takes five years from forming launch customers, on a clean sheet design, to first delivery. Airbus is certainly talking to prospective Boeing NMA launch customers for any details.

If Boeing lets the cat out of the bag too soon then it will be another 787-A350 dogfight. Boeing can shorten the time to market by developing a NMA on the "QT" for three years before launching/announcing at a "Show". 

NMA strategic plan:
  • It needs to line up die hard Boeing customers using sketchy information.
  • It needs to develop NMA technology and design from proven accomplishment from prior programs.
  • It needs to complete the 737-10, 787-10 and 777X programs before launching the NMA.

Boeing can build a new medium airplane before launching while Airbus watches and looses ground against the clock on a shrewd Boeing move. This is the strategic importance coming from lessons learned both current and prior programs. Announcing early makes expectations wait far too long giving customers angst and the competition time for a rebuttal. 

Boeing needs to go secret with its aspirations while working with customers somewhat like Lockheed's "Skunk-Works". The 787 was announced clear back in 2003 with full details of what it would be made of and then Airbus complained it couldn't be done while forming its own composite A350 aircraft. Boeing came to Market in 2011 and Airbus answered in late 2015. The going-to-market time gap could of decreased with less Boeing fanfare from  2003 to 2011, if Boeing had announced the 787 in the year 2007 after it had completed a successful prototype. Doing so would have put Boeing ahead of Airbus by almost ten years. 

Instead Boeing announced often from 2003, the 787, for drumming up sales for what it proposed down the road thus causing customer angst from waiting and allowing its competitor a response during the interim period of time of announcement to its first delivery, after which Boeing fumbled through new technology and production issues.

The NMA approach seems to take some of those timing issues as Boeing is dodging detection of what it really is going to build while it begins a NMA program currently. 

  • It will want a first delivery of its NMA within three years of announcing a launch. 
  • The program will be already mature at the announcement time.
  • All risks are retired before first assembly is completed except the flying testing.
The whole strategy is to lengthen any competitor response time to what Boeing has already shown to its die hard customers on paper. 

In order to do that, it will have to rely on what it has made before an NMA concept is approved. An all plastic body and wings become a quick solution on the production process. The design is an all new body fitting customers comfort first. The engine selection is based on reliable engine builders. The technology is off the Boeing shelf going forward. No new moon shots. Management plays for time allowing all this going on at the Boeing Skunk Works. Area 797 is activated for testing in Montana for secrecy. 

Just having fun by seeing how much falls into place from this idea and why Boeing stalls on the 797. 

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Paris Day Three On The Fly

A settled in day for the Airshow. When all numbers are added and changes made, there will be a comparison with the Airbus order Tally. All numbers in charts are reported as posted by news organisations. 

However, some revision to order count and status will be updated when Boeing and Airbus reports at the beginning of next July month. Day 3 had 9.89 billion paper documents for Boeing aircraft under a purchasing intent. The "various" intents were lumped together on the Max 7 column. This will change once everything sorts out. However, 82 paper documented airplanes were tallied for Boeing's Day 3 count, which is significantly more than the Airbus Tally. 

The paper MOU or intents may turn into real orders by year's end. Airbus posted mostly orders and not many intent aircraft, but it still showed a decline in orders from the last Paris Airshow in 2015. The big item is the 737 Max 10 which will include many order book revisions when changing from a Max 8 order (example) posted earlier and turning it into a Max 10 order at the show. There is a significant revenue increase when a conversion is made going to the Max 10 from a prior ordered 737. 

The units may not change in these cases but dollar value does change significantly so the ultimate net unit book during the airshow will take until the end of month before numbers for Boeing are accurately counted.
Fig. 1 Day 3 Subtotal

Fig. 2 Show Total

Yikes, Boeing won the show on paper when it signed for over 624 single aisle in various stages of a deals. The list value is used for the calculation making $90.91 Billion for its paper sales. Look at the 737 Max -10 column for 326 units noting its an airplane not even built or tested. Impressive indeed, as most of the MOU units will turn into booked orders. What further analysis will bear out is how many 737 Max 10's feed from the prior order bookings of early Max units purchase from prior periods before the show. A surprising count is the number of Max -8 airshow orders committed.  The drain from conversions from Max pool going to the 737-Max -10 column is offset by new orders, MOU's and commitments from 297 units collected from the "other" Max columns not called 737Max-10, is a testament for the Boeing Single aisle program, obtaining a significant boost when chasing the Airbus order book. It will not catch the Airbus single aisle backlog at this time, but Boeing has closed a significant gap with Airbus' single aisle order book.

Airshow To date,  Boeing snagged 681 airplane units for all types. Whether all will make it to the Boeing book remains to be seen. It is an impression this is a strong marker to come for future orders in the single aisle area. The 328 737-10's asked for, could double in number by completion of year 3 from its launch at the Paris show, thus making the Boeing gamble a winning bet.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Paris Airshow, By Some Numbers Snapshot

A snapshot is a point in time frozen by some happening. The ever evolving changes at the Paris airshow makes it a moving target. The Winging It aim is often wild. Below is a composed picture of what was known at some time since this morning. A negative number suggests a transfer from a prior period order into a new Airshow order going from one model to another in a purchase announcement. 

Not all data is verified nor could it be accurate since so much is going on throughout the event. Various news sources often report in error as well and researching those articles becomes a difficult task. Exampled by unclear reports of 50 aircraft for 1.25 billion the editor misses the continuity of 50 aircraft going for 1.25 billion. There are errors in the news reporting often leading to confusing data.

Winging It doesn't know who is right and who is wrong with Airshow numbers, so it must wait until the show is done and follow company reports for orders books. Below is such a snapshot without airplane verification which will come later. Anyways, its an attempt to see Boeing's order footprint at the show where the numbers are mostly correct. What is missing are airplane order conversion numbers as prior orders for one model converted to another such as in the Max 737-8 going to a Max 737-10 order. 

This is where the primary problem of reporting accurate numbers for this show. The other problem is a definition of MOU vs Commitment and what does it really mean when considering who is buying what and when.

A "commitment" is probably a letter saying, "if we buy an airplane it will be a Boeing 737-Max-10 sometime. See SpiceJet and Lion Air commitments below for further analysis. They are Boeing customers but are not yet ready to put ink to paper until further notice until Boeing negotiations are complete. A commitment in this case is strong as a MOU. Some commitments could be pie in the sky notoriety at the show. 

An "MOU" is a memorandum which is a legally binding promise stating, "we will buy #nth 737-Max-10 during 2017 at the time final purchase contracts are signed". It's all grey water flowing through the show and bragging about what is going on is just bragging about the muddy drinking water.

A "purchase" is golden and in the books only to be backed out of through exchange of compensation along with the appropriate ensuing lawsuit. See the Qatar purchase as it is the end of a long commitment process after much consideration for its fleet composition, routes and airline purposes in a changing market. The 20 Max 8 started its order completion journey long ago from a commitment status.

I would expect all MOU's to turn into a purchase by year's end and the commitment will dangle until eternity or until the airline makes enough money to buy what it wants or needs. The purchase conclusion is gold in the bank. See the CDB MOU order below. it is a case of many moving parts considering converting from model to another, pricing and opportunity within a limited time frame. CDB MOU has set goals and objectives for completing the "deal" yet to be worked out but it is a go baring a financial meltdown. 

Below is the convoluted and inaccurate chart of the Boeing show from many unreliable news sources for which all claim reliability?

Boeing Aircraft numbers start of day 2

The negative number above represent a conversion from SpiceJet on the Max 8 column coming from converting 20 of the Max 8's into Max 10's. There are other conversions of this nature but not validated at this time. The values from converting have not been factored as of yet.

After all the disclaimers and apologies, Boeing has to date about 377 Boeing frames in purchase play for about 52.21 billion at list prices for which the remainder of the year will whittle down a majority of these MOU's and Commitments in to a purchase. 

Boeing should meet its guidance this year having already netted 208 frames for all types before the show. It has six more months and Dubai to meets its order guidance. A net number would include cancellations and conversions from the announced total announced during the Airshow.

Best Boeing Deal on Day 2 at Paris Airshow

Okay, the biggest deals are not always the most important deal. Okay Airlines from China, bought 15 more Max counting eight of the Max-10's and seven of the Max-8's. A parting shot leaving the Boeing pavilion had a "by-the-way" cause for five 787-9's  committed for future fleet expansion, but that won't count until contracted in full.

The reason it is the best deal today, because this exemplifies the world trade reach at the 2017 show. China showed-up and ordered which makes one ponder if more are to come from China this week as announced deals.

Boeing has employed a new marketing strategy over previous campaigns using the all-hands-on-deck mantra. This strategy is self evident when the Boeing Blog Master, Randy Tenseth goes under ground from writing any Boeing quips for over two months on his Journal found on It feels like the marketing team efforts has paid off at Paris as Boeing is rolling up a formidable 355 sales and commitments on day one. The second day is already showing a trickle coming forward in an unrelenting pace. It won't match Monday but it will keep this years sales discussion going throughout the show.

Okay, so its day two and fifteen more Max's are unloaded onto the Boeing orders books. An early indication the marketing team is everywhere this year when so many single aisle orders for the Max-10 especially from India. Least we not forget United Airlines who expressed a strong interest in Boeing's latest 737 version could close the show with an announcement ordering 50 or so 737 Max 10's. Just saying, Okay?

Chinese Airline Okay Airways Orders 15 737 MAX Airplanes

So the Boeing Best Deal day 2 is from Okay Airlines from China. Okay!

Monday, June 19, 2017

Best Boeing Deal of The Day at Paris

Ever heard of Monarch Airlines? It acted on no impulse and filled an order for 15 Max 737's. The importance of this deal is not lost on Boeing strategist. This was once an Airbus customer and now it is a Boeing customer primarily ordering the Max for its operations in travel.

ATW quotes:

"UK leisure carrier Monarch Airlines has firmed options on a further 15 Boeing 737 MAX 8s, valued at $1.7 billion at current list prices, and signed a support joint venture with Boeing."

Monarch is transitioning from an Airbus to a Boeing fleet, which should be completed by the end of 2022.
“It is a rare transition to go entirely from one manufacturer to another and we are pleased with how it is moving. We already have NGs operating. We are very happy with our early sight of the aircraft and are in the process of getting them into the air. As a customer, it has been seamless,” Monarch CEO Andrew Swaffield said.
“The decision to exercise our option for an additional 15 737 MAX 8 aircraft is a clear illustration of confidence in Monarch’s future success.”
A rare but important aviation transaction when a customer switches out its fleet to another framer than what it had historically had done. With a prior 30 ordered Max 737's and now the 15 options firmed, Monarch has completed a goal of the initial signing order. Bragging rights here goes to Boeing. Even if no one has heard of "Monarch" its remains a major turn of events in the airplane wars. 

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Malaysia Air Seeks A Low Price For A330 NEO's

Even though Malaysia Air has not decided on an Airbus A330 NEO it is reported that price is the sticking point. A break through deal is not depended on price alone but on a delivery schedule as well. Airbus can and is probably dropping its price offering in this case, but it may not be able to deliver on a timely basis for Malaysia Air's expansion and replacement plans. Boeing becomes the lady in waiting in this case.

Let's examine a Boeing chance at this order as it is named in aviation circles as a player for this deal. Leveraging a price is done by Boeing's room presence. Airbus does not want to lose this deal and is in the throes of a production start-up with its A330-NEO. It can and will move to a competitive production mode for this type of aircraft. Any delays would make the 787 an attractive alternative. 

Here is the fleet dichotomy of Malaysia's Fleet in Fig. 1 below: Available through Wikipedia data

A quick review of the fleet makes room for the 787 as it would bump out the A-330 NEO presence if Malaysia starts a fleet change with new aircraft. Boeing is still chasing the deal but has some talking points remaining. 
  • Boeing has production slots available
  • Higher Fuel prices match future efficiency needs
  • Boeing Fleet presence completes Malaysia's commonality of operations from Max-Medium Wide Body. 
The current fleet of A330-300 could be replaced with either the 787-9 or 787-10 thus flipping Malaysia Air towards Boeing. If and only if Malaysia Air sees its fleet expansion moving towards longer than 6,000 mile routes. The 787-10 would slot into fleet renewal of current Malaysia Air's A330-300 (15) and then go further with the 787-9 as a fleet expansion move. 

Boeing would make room for either type in its production queue as it now approaches completing its 787-8 backlog and is well established with its 787-9 output. The 787-10 backlog sits at 149 and some of those orders may seek a further out delivery time than originally requested. It is a belief if Boeing can find production slots compliant with Malaysia Air's plans it may sweep away the Airbus order out from underneath them. Boeing would have to make a price case if it can, as much as Airbus needs, and Airbus is better positioned to do so with its A330 NEO proposal.

September 2017 is the projected deal closing with an Airbus deal by media sources. Boeing's outside shot could be aided by rising fuel prices. If Boeing makes a late genuine offer for placing wide body orders it would have to have other sweeteners such as a 797 offering as a launch customer.

Monday, June 12, 2017

EL AL signs for 16 787 Blunting A Late A350 Order Surge In May

Recently, Airbus booked 20 of its A350-9's from China Southern during May 2017. Now Boeing wraps up an El Al order yesterday for 16 of its 787-9's. Dueling order books before the Paris Airshow is very interesting as it suggests a very active order year in the wide body realm. Wide Bodies are not dead in 2017 as many have written-off.

Many more widebody orders will materialize out of the mist before year's end. Air shows may become more of an announcement speed bump as so many deals are in the works. I will suggest Boeing Market VP Randy Tinseth is so busy he has abandon writing on his "Randy's Journal Blog".  

His last commentary happened last April 7, 2017 (or it came from his staff). A typically timely blog seems to be too much when so much is happening in the airplane market place. 

Expect many steady orders until the end of the year like El Al's recently announced 16 wide body 787-9 and 8's just booked. This has been in the works since 2015. 

Many an observer is witnessing a real ordering dog fight between Airbus and Boeing, especially in the wide body arena. The Airshow venue maybe reserved for the single aisle battle between the NEO and the Max. 

Saturday, June 10, 2017

All Things 787 Indicates 145 Processed During 2017

After looking at the All Things 787 charts there are listed 92 of Boeing's 787's for delivery during June - December of this year. After five plus months of delivery processing 53 of the 787 were delivered at a 10.6 a month pace. Currently there are 57 delivered through June 10, 2017. The charts also indicate ninety-two  787's should be completing the process by year's end from June 1. This will indicate a total of 145, 787 for the year (53+92= 145). Whether or not that quantity are received by its customers is a strict guess. This depends on the customers urgency, financial ability, and changing market conditions which could all contribute towards a delay on any delivery.

Boeing is positioned to meet guidance for about 138 units delivered during 2017 and it is feasible it could go long and reach beyond 140 of this type delivered during this year. Another observation is Boeing has blown by the Airbus A-350 backlog margin and continues to take orders in a wide body down year. The air shows are yet to come and it will be interesting to see everything shakes out during the Paris Air Show. Backlog is a function of Orders and Deliveries. Boeing having a lower 787 backlog while it has a strong production outflow gives Boeing opportunity to sell more 787 for relevant delivery in a corporation's timeline. However, taking more wide body orders over its competitor also increases financial strength which will reduce its 27 billion deferred cost money  pit.

If Boeing processes 92 from June 1- December 31 1017, it will maintain a build to completion pace of 13 of its 787 a month. This will be a increasing pace as the 787-10 matriculates itself into the production process.

Thursday, June 8, 2017

From F-35 Fusion To Commercial Fusion Spins The B-797

The F-35 takes its flying super computer and puts it into function by melding together a complete picture of the battle airspace and use of its weapons. They call it fusion the in F-35 cockpit and its deadly for its adversaries.

Boeing is on the edge of its 20 year R&D march to the 797. Take lessons learned, proven new technology and emerging technology in small doses, then fuse them together into a 797. Boeing doesn't have to look over its shoulder spying Airbus and its NEO because they are stretching further than a New Engine Option a constant Airbus theme. Boeing is going to build something quick and sky shaking in the form of a 797. The fusion comes from its bag of proprietary tricks from engineering, marketing, and its supply bins.

Speculation becomes a currency for this topic. The long wait for a New Medium Aircraft (NMA) is closing with an announcement coming in the next 18 months. The 797 NMA naming is slotted into a hallow slot within the family of Boeing Aircraft. Fusing together Boeing success suggests it will take a road can't and won't follow. Its A321 will become obsolete and a new Airbus frame from the white paper process is ten years off while Boeing will have another five year head start. Ten years if  counting launch customer announcements. Boeing is farther down road than it would like Airbus to know in this case.

Much like the 787 with its revolutionary plastic and all electric concepts, the 797 will reach back and then reach forward within Boeing's objective constraints. After considering this, the 797 will be plastic with a different body. An engine build is up for grabs from three engine makers. A guess is CFM, GE, and Rolls. The engine must come early in the process as the frame formation must work in harmony with the engine mount.

Speculation on things already available:

  • Extensive CFRP use.
  • Ceramic engine components
  • Laminar Flow Technology
  • Core electrical architecture
  • Big Windows

Speculation on things coming forward

  • Elliptical Body
  • Extended Range capability
  • New Engine Technology
  • Use of New CFRP processes using less autoclave application 

Proprietary Engineering comes from Boeing's back lot which even makes Walt Disney envious of his "Imagineering" world. However, today is spending speculation into reality which is a good occupation. Boeing at least is fusing its technology flying into the gap.

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

The 797 Passenger Experience Maybe A Boeing Egg

The 797 could be built on elliptical lines as depicted below in model "a". Standing at the front of the airplane and looking back is an elliptical cross section. The center line from A  port side to B starboard side would be at the seating passenger level. The ceiling crown could be about 8 Ft from floor to crown. Below the center horizontal line is luggage storage, ancillary freight and aircraft gear. 

Fig. 1 The  "Winging It" 797 MOM/proposed body cross section.

The final design would incorporate the appropriate width and height for the body. However, from this basic design theme would make passenger seating and space at a premium  for the experience. The stronger CFRP advantage will allow a plane framer to find the exact body strength from its width and elliptical height. Boeing has this on paper somewhere near Seattle, WA. Whether Boeing has a rabbit in its hat is hinted by higher-ups near microphones. An all new airplane that will skew the competition into a panic could come from everything 787 but built on an oval. Seat pitch would probably not improve over other models but a seven across seating arrangement could go 20" or more wide quite nicely with this configuration.

The penalty for the design is limiting freight space in the belly. The shape could increase lift (lifting body concept) without having any significant drag increase. Pair the design shape above with a taller landing gear allowing appropriate engine power could make this a world beater and tough to copy as Airbus is known to do.  

The other trick Boeing is working on is reducing weight with a dual aisle arrangement. The elliptical body may do this as its lighter than a 787 frame. The sketch above is exaggerated as to what an actual body cross section would look like as Boeing would push the side in by inches in proportion to the elliptical height as being more likely than this example. However, Boeing would like to find about 20 more inches across from a circle design. All of this enhances the passenger and flight experience for which many airlines are seeking. 

The Boeing doodling in the lab CAD computer can make a paper airplane that works well as the 787 did. All kinds of shapes and sizes are tested first at lab level and then it moves into a wind tunnel model for validation of flight characteristics from the CAD tinkering.

This could show up in Paris later this month but I doubt it. Paris will be all about the 737-10 announcement.

What Others Have Whispered About a Boeing MOM

Many blogs from Winging It have attempted to get its wings around Boeing's Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft. The refresher talking points about what Winging It thinks is simple (see points below)

  • Its gotta go 5,000 miles
  • It will be two aisle seven across seating
  • Plastic wings and metal body
  • Lower cabin pressure equaling the 787
  • Down sized from big bodied engine offering

Now DNA from India enters the aviation rumble with its assessment:

"We have looked at the mild and we have looked at the wild and I can tell you we know that if you are going to address that market, you need a new airplane," Tinseth told Reuters after a two-day meeting of airline leaders in Mexico.

The clue is offered, "All New MOM" aircraft from Boeing.

DNA Reported Randy Tenseth:

"The two mid-market models, designed to carry about 220-260 passengers over 3,500 to 5,000 nautical miles (6,400-9,260 km), will also have a wing resembling the distinctive stiletto design of the 787 Dreamliner but with significant internal differences." 

DNA says; "Carbon composites allow manufacturers to make complex pieces in one shape and are well suited to the more elliptical design that Boeing has in mind for the new mid-market fuselage."

Winging It proposed an all metal body in earlier articles but the goal post have moved with technology and a conceptual elliptical plastic body, thus maintaining passenger space. Advances on a build with CFRP makes a case for a plastic body. Every day something new replaces something sort of new. A metal body in the single aisle to Middle of the Market aisle  dual aisle maybe too heavy for a all new MOM  as Boeing wants a template for follow-on design and metal is so yesterday. DNA points out weight and space are critical criteria for a MOM. It can't be too heavy or too narrow and it must fly 5,000 miles and DNA suggest a narrow under body with limited freight space.

Limited freight saves weight, an elliptical oval shape plays into better lift and drag coefficients for flying bodies having a narrower crown and bottom than waste line area. It is built for passenger travel and not everything or the kitchen sink goes into the belly as it will be built for the passenger. The main thing again is weight reduction and an elliptical plastic body achieves less weight, less drag for body width, and more passenger space at the same time. Hence 5,000 miles is its distance bench mark. 

A new frame from scratch allows for new and future engines without having a suffering of little space with ground limitations for which the 737 has for its engines. A taller landing gear gives the MOM the just right engine stance. A clue coming forward would be if a single source engine builder like a 737's talking points or dual engine maker from the 787 plan. If Boeing decides having multiple engine makers does not make the sale, it will go all out with one maker for the MOM. Hence a battle with CFM,GE, and Rolls. Winging IT places a wager on GE engines for the MOM.

What's new over the 787 or 777X? A slew of Boeing innovations accumulated over the last decade. Laminar flow characteristics on the body skin, potentially new CRFP process which eliminates autoclave and pressure treatments, and the possibility of an all electric architecture  similar to the 787. Weight reductions and efficiency will guide the the MOM into existence. Boeing will have an preponderance of "Off-Its Shelf" parts and engineering compliment going into the MOM. If Boeing has already sunk costs into R&D then use it if applicable. If a vendor has a better solution use it. Mentioning losing weight again becomes redundant but is the critical feature of the 5,000 mile MOM and that makes it viable in the world market place.

Monday, June 5, 2017

Will Paris Be A Narrow Body Show?

The up and coming airshow at the Paris Le Bourget Field may promise to be an exciting single aisle or narrow body show: The Boeing 737-10 awaits announcement with orders maybe from these South East aviation players.

  • Lion Air -100 units
  • Spice Jet-75
  • Jet Airways-50

All come from South East Asia and India. China has a stake at the Paris Airshow too and there maybe a surprise order at the show from the Chinese region. It will be difficult to speculate what will happen but it is important to note Boeing may carry the show with orders. Singapore may announce its intent for wide body orders with a final signing for 20 777X and 19 more of the 787-10's for its fleet. IF and if only these orders bare fruition during the show, Boeing will have billions in its column.

Airbus is not sitting still and is working harder to make a splash at the show. However, if Boeing captures half the single aisle tally it will add a preponderance of wide bodied aircraft over Airbus aspiration to its tally and fatten the 2017 order book.

Having an order coups over Airbus would definitely make an inroad into the Airbus Single Aisle lead of about 1,200 A-321 over the 400 737-9. A new Boeing model announcement may break the Airbus spell it has over the Single Aisle class.


Thursday, June 1, 2017

May Summary 787 Reports

Boeing has produced and delivered 12 of its 787 during the month of May. The second half of the year promises to be more robust than the 53 of its 787 delivered. The end of June should rebound the Boeing Trend line when reaching for an estimated 135 of its 787 by year's end. Even though the production queue looks lean in number, it becomes a signal for how efficient the 787 program has become since 2011. Program maturity suggests if Boeing has about a thirty (see fig. 5) in its production line, it will produce and deliver about a dozen by months end where in May 2016 it may have forty-four in its production process while delivering only ten of its 787 by any months end. Boeing should exceed a twelve a month delivered for several months during the next seven months while the other five months during this period should deliver around twelve units (+/-) making for the approximate 135 unit year delivered. It needs about 12 a month (83) for seven months to reach 135-138 units delivered during 2017 and is positioned to do so.  

Fig. 1

The orders portion above is an estimation since Boeing has not officially posted its order book for May which would include West Jet's 10 unit 787 order.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5