Friday, April 8, 2016

Has Boeing Turned The Airbus Corner?

Boeing since it realized a model gaff when it came late to the market with the 737 Max now beginning to catch the, Airbus swagger. An important Airbus note, it has delivered the NEO. The Max is about a year away and is filling NG orders like it was 2011. Boeing is already outputting Airbus at a consistent production pace during the first quarter of 2016. Airbus is late showing its first quarter numbers and no wonder as Boeing turns a production and a order corner as it already leads Airbus on both counts so far in 2016.

My own reason suggests the early to market NEO has lost its potential backlog energy as its customers are firm with the NEO and does not need the Airbus A320-CEO as arrivals of the NEO is the prime consideration of the day for all its single aisle customers. If the Max is truly the superior single Aisle a change will occur this year for the single aisle dichotomy of orders. The Max and NG will close the competitive gap with Airbus.

Further is the sluggish start of the A350 delivery cycle. It’s already into a delivery cycle of 16 months with only one A350-900 delivered to date in 2016. Remember the Seven Late Seven and all the complaints during the first 16 months. Boeing did better than Airbus during its first 16 months with having a more complex aircraft then the A350-900. Boeing flat out, out produced and delivered 49 of the 787 in the same first 16 months as compared with Airbus which only made about 16 A350-900's during its first 16 months of its production.

It has been mentioned before in a Winging It feature blog and it bears another take. Even with the grounding of the 787 during 2013 where for about 100 days no 787's were delivered, it will overcome any Airbus charge into the market. Boeing kept making the 787 during the battery groundings and then delivered it in multiples of 787’s after the battery solution was followed by FAA approval for that problem. During December 2018, Airbus will reach a thirty-six month production milestone assuming not having any Boeing like problems, it will also have little too few additional orders for its type. In Fact the A350 family has only sold a handful of A350's over the last 24 months where Boeing has sold about 149, 787’s in the last two years (or 24 months to date). There is little cheer going on in Toulouse these days. The A350 is withering under Boeing's orders and delivery, demonstrating the imminent success of the Dreamliner. 

The Airbus Corporation (EADS) has received a negative (36) orders in the last 24 months. Dropping its book total from 812 to 777. Combining its 16 deliveries in 16 months, it drops the Airbus backlog to 762 as compared with Boeing's total backlog of 746 while coming down from its 1,139 total orders. The case has been made and it’s apparent, Airbus is having some bad board meeting days without an apparent solution for its 787 problem, After all its billions spent and hype given on the behalf of the A350, it is now crumbling before the order book view as Boeing keeps outpacing the A350 on both orders and deliveries fronts. In fact, the Boeing order book is positioned for more timely orders than even Airbus can hope to deliver.