Boeing's 797 Hiccup

The long awaited 797 announcement, well, has become "long-awaited". The reasons why are legion. Winging It hopes to enumerate a few of the big stumbling blocks.

• Risk still exceeds reward.
• The timing window has shut.
• The bridge is too far

These are only a few delaying insecurity blankets weighing on Boeing with its decision-making for the 797. The top three are just opinions about what's up with Boeing and the 797 but are valid concerns.

The risk issue is causing Boeing great heartburn. What if Airbus can answer Boeing with an A-321 NEO type offer? What if Boeing's enthusiastic 797 customers back off and move-on-by without ordering the 797 because the customer already has adequate 787's and 737's? The questions keep pounding away at the risk stake and burying the reward portion of the equation. Boeing is on a tetter-totter vacillating back and forth to go all-in or play-it-safe. In my humble opinion, Boeing is too far down the 797 road to back off. They will risk it all for the promise of great reward and call Airbus' bluff building the NMA starting last year.

The timing window was ripe in 2018 but the Boeing wet insecurity blanket stopped them from opening that window of time because of the draft in the house was already a steady breeze. The timing for an announcement was late 2018 as an optimal point in time and now its become almost an afterthought for a 797 announcement which has now lost some market impact when/if it announces a 797 program at a later date. Paris is only a few months away and Boeing could sweep the show with some very large 797 Launch customer orders making the time window wide open again. Boeing will have to revolutionize aviation with this new concept and swoon the market away from Airbus.

Finally is the "Bridge Too Far"? Referring to an old World War II movie of the allies marching through the low country of Europe for capturing bridges on the Rhine river thus ending Germany's pillage of Europe. On the last bridge or the main target, it failed to take the biggest bridge at the Arnhem bridge crossing. Unlike World War II, Boeing's 797 bridge is an integral part of its offensive and without taking the bridgehead it could lose the aviation war. The movie and book emphasized the Bride Too Far war objective was unnecessary. Boeing is hesitating because it can't determine the 797 importance in this case. Boeing must cross the "Rhine river" in order to win the war. Arnhem was not needed to allies. The 797 is needed for Boeing.

It's About 141 Days Until The 797 Will Be Announced At Paris

After revealing over 1,000 engineers are working engineers directly on Boeing's 797 concepts, Paris is just a spot on the world stage for a big announcement event. The reveal will include launch customers and pending LOI's finalized after the first announcement is made. The tally at the launch will approach five hundred 797-7's and 797-6's consisting of both firm and MOU orders. Firm orders will be the launch customers. The American 797 order tally will include United, Delta, American, and SWA,

United is a prediction for at least a 50-50 firm to MOU orders and Delta will not be outdone with its own 50-50 intensity. American will become more conservative until the 797 program flies with the proposed engine. It may slowly sign in with American Airlines for 25 797-7's. Noe European Boeing customers may surprise market watchers when Ryan Air comes out with a 250 seat proposal for a 797-500 niche  NMA which sculptures in 250 passengers at a time using a dual aisle efficiency. It airport plane disembarking and embarking can cycle faster than the single-aisle with the small dual aisle.

The 797 NMA was made for Asia and orders could come in at a surprising rate. ANA almost bought the 787-8-300 during those heady days early years and now engineering blocks have been mostly removed during the sum of all Boeing's program. The 797 programs could risk making P&W engines with its GTF1000's making it an NMA specialty engine for every 797 airframes. After following some articulate about the GDF shortfalls, it indicates this is a better concept for the jet engine performance. The GTF has years of "efficiency catch-up" from its supply chain and faces a continuous problem solving from the wear during operations, while it is in service or on a wing. Boeing has a chance with P&W for the introduction of this engine with a clean sheet. P&W also has the developmental playbook overly corrected and lessons learned on the 320NEO program will springboard Boeing with a 50'000 lbs thrusts from P&W GTF engines'

The final count summary suggests a great show announcement will reach over 400 orders not counting any MOUS. The design completion percentage at launch announcement will be in the 80-90% range awaiting final customer input after which a formal launch announcement will automatically close all major changes unless a customer will buy 100 aircraft like Ryan Air did for 200 737 seats per plane. 

The Kerosene and Cargo Plane program 46 has arrived to the USAF

It was a matter of time this would happen and consuming the time it took. Boeing let loose two of its KC-46's today giving the Airforce a try on its own with the KC-46. If you thought it was flawed and full of problems according to every languishing journal in the press about the KC-46, it's natural to report even the dust balls in the cargo hold was found expressing a high volume of vitriolic comment as the social media authority. However, with the KC-problems, the Airforce has taken on two KC-46's with a Boeing promise to fix those same problems. If this makes sense then you are a defense contractor at heart.

Know this:

The Airforce and Boeing have been talking a long time about glitches and operational weaknesses. Both major players have spent copious amounts of time fixing hundreds of items during the first tranche of KC-46's delivered. The big problem publicized is the boom operators occasional vision glare during refueling with a receiver aircraft when the light angles just right. There is a workaround making the fuel transfer not an exact straight line operation of doing a fuel load at any angle of operation. The aircraft has to change its heading slightly to do the job. At best it could be called an awkward moment but manageable and not mission ending at all. This could be a three-year fix to develop new screens and software to mitigate the occasional glare problem at certain angles of light in rare cases.

The countless other checklist fix items are worked through during its initial operations with the Airforce which can be handled as encountered or tested once again as a defective glitch. The KC-46 will need operational time flying to fully wring out the kinks but the Airforce has seen enough from Boeing that the two principals will in a short time make this a valuable asset for the military. In fact, the Airforce cannot dilly dally about the program as its own legacy tanker dies of old age. It must induct a better tanker in the KC-46 even with some flaws rather than wait for all the fixes to come about. It can fly the KC-46 on missions today better than what it has on its own inventory like the KC-135. The time has come to backfill the airforce with manageable new tankers replacing its old tankers as fast as it can.

The Airforce would have not taken these first two from Boeing unless the light was seen from the end of the tunnel. The risk is very low and all fixes are now considered doable during the next years of operations.

The A380 Last Days

There are 331 firm orders by 18 customers for the passenger version of the Airbus A380-800, of which 234 have been delivered to 13 of those customers as of December 2018.

The Boeing 777X has a total of 326 orders matching what Airbus did with its market swallowing A380 for 331 orders. Boeing has no new orders for some time and Airbus is struggling to keep its A380 production model from an untimely death.

The Boeing intent is to nullify Airbus at every corner and it appears they have done so with its 777X offerings. This WB corner is awaiting the other shoe to drop from a Boeing announcement for a new medium-bodied (NMB) aircraft already assigned an unofficial family model number with an unofficial 797 designation. Boeing would love Airbus to counter punch before that NMB announcement with its A321 extended model.  Boeing may have its ducks in a row and will announce this summer at Paris for the 797 families of aircraft.

The A350-1000 is supposed to be a 777-300-ER killer but already it has met its match with the Boeing pair of 777-8X and 777-9X. The A350-1000 can carry 365 passengers for 8,400 miles. The 777-8x meets those Airbus metrics or exceeds them when considering the 777-8X while its 777-9X exceeds it by seating 405 passengers and loses some ground when flying for only 7,500 miles. But paired together the 777X model is a better fit for airlines when buying the two model layouts for the 777X. The 777X is just bigger and more efficient than the 777-300-ER, or the A350-1000.

The A380 can't compete and only in seats provided with a standard 500 seats it has to fill each time it takes-off. It's just a matter of time before airlines can dump the A380  and that will directly improve the 777X order book when the A380 reveals it has few takers for used A380 aircraft. The early sales attempts to support the notion of an A380 after-market points directly at Boeing's aspirations and not Airbus family of aircraft. 

The 777X is a long term project where if Airbus would roll out a design today to match it, it would be 10 years in the making for a first delivery A350-1100. It's in the midst of already examining a Boeing argument with a new A-350-1100 look for 400 plus passengers. Airbus is stuck with the Airbus A-350 line-up and it can only lengthen the design or widen it at the expense of going clean sheet to meet the 777X challenge. Airbus can't at this time afford an A-350 clean sheet for 400 passengers without stockholder fallout and a limited market segment and a return on its investment. 

Boeing has jumped Airbus on this thin segment with the 777X program. It would be unwise to clean sheet a New WB to cover its mistake with its own A380 prideful blunderings. The A380 program has died and an A-350-1100  would be an unwise venture unless Airbus can knock one out of the park clear to the moon. It sounds like Boeing's own moonshot is now paying dividends over the Airbus the A-380 blunder.

What Does Boeing Say, 777X At End of 1st Quarter

Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president, sales, for Asia Pacific and India at Boeing Commercial Airplanes says, The 777X will roll out by the end of March 2019. It's time to look at your calendar and mark it up with a highlighter. Today is January 15th. End of March is just 70 days away or about 10 weeks to go. It is a Tuesday today.

My best guess will be covered on Boeing's own website on a Wednesday, March 27, 2019. A Friday or weekend party would lose eyeballs for the event. The number seven is in play for the 27th. Add 27 together it equals the number 9 in the nomenclature for a 777-9X. Using this superior logic, an announcement could include a launch for the 777-10X when adding 7+7+7+9= 28 or combining those digits to a -10X. The number game could continue but it's easy to see March 27, 2019, as the roll-out date.

Remember this posted observation for a 777X rollout date. Science and math had everything to do with this prediction. Intellect had little to do with this guess. I had only one case of Diet Dr. Pepper and a case of Cheetos to rely upon when preparing for this event. Watch Boeing.com for further details coming soon. Almost all the 777-9X's "flying testbed number one" has all its lightbulbs screwed in. I have a reliable source inside Everett, Wa. who knows when the roach coach brings lunch outside those same big doors as the flying #1  777-9X leans against those same big doors from the inside, and that's just the same as being a plant forklift driver. The forklift knows when test equipment is moved closer to the aircraft and that's saying something big is happening. Test equipment is being added and light bulbs screwed in the first 7779X. Did I mention the windscreen washer has already been tested and the bugs on this aircraft have been removed?

What Hath Boeing Bought

Embraer has its own commercials pitching its product. However, if trained for the detail, Boeing has merged with an excellent product. It fills the Boeing lower capacity gap at many levels sans military.

Enjoy this advertising rendering as Embraer-Boeing goes forward with its added value.

Is Glitching The Process Or The Problem?

When something as simple as a newly installed light switch fails to turn on, it is called a "glitch". "The old one was broken that is why we bought and replaced with a new one", is a common sentiment, when in fact the circuit breaker in the garage popped off during the last power surge. The airplane manufacturer has the same problems but on a larger scale. They have a full PR team to handle glitches found on a newly built model like the 787 had way back in 2010.  The conference room geniuses needed a new word to solve the problem and it was "Teething woes".

The airplane customer AKA the airline model suffered through those same teething woes and sometimes it was not a simple fix. The big example is the 787 battery problem. It grounded the 787 Boeing product for up to three months as they did a major workaround from its garage in Washington state engineering a battery firebox and venting battery gases since the battery was only used for ground operations and not flying, but flying a burning LI battery is extremely dangerous for its passengers. They airplane could come down and suffer a complete hull loss flying over who knows where. Boeing then came up with "teething woes".

The common glitch on a new product suggests an incomplete process when building any product, especially a new one like the 787 during its entry into service back into 2011-2012. The failing new light switch in the home could be wired wrong, the part is defective, or the circuit breaker in the garage had shut off the power. It wasn't teething woes and it was the DIY guy in the home providing the simple fix imagined turning into a nightmare. The TV wouldn't power up on Superbowl Sunday and the DIY hero was over his head with a new teething woe. Never fear, the popcorn is heard but the cable truck just pulled up for the ultimate fix.

Link:

Authorities Find Cockpit Voice Recorder of Crashed Lion Air Flight 610

Here we go, Lion Airs Flight 610 has just found its voice recorder in 26 feet of mud. Once restored, it will replay the cabin's cacophony of panic in a disaster from the mud intombed device. It was still pinging thus the device could be located. It had only a few more days of pinging left in it before it went forever silent. The importance of the flight recording may assign the blame for the crash. The crew on board may have followed the wrong procedure or possibly the ground team did not validate the problem being fixed! But only validating a part replacement was used under a certain operating condition. Boeing and the others wanting a legal win for its clients will look at the flight recorder in only one context. Did the Lion Aircrew act in a professional manner which covers training, experience, and advice before it went down? Did Boeing understand an unrevealed problem could occur with the new Max under certain situations? Either way, a flight recorder will make it easier to assign final blame.

Why Verdana Font and Orange Fill for This Aviation Blog?

Everything seen on these pages is blogging with a purpose, and not just an attraction for a reader to enjoy this content. The following nuances from the Winging It blog try to follow these layout points for a subliminal experience with the blog opened in full view.

Note underscored below but an important point for the main article. The bullets points are not links.

·      The Color orange represents the afterburner glow of the jet engine

·      It represents the extra power of the Blog signaling those items linked in the blog as an orange and pleasant experience if s reader goes further with a higher sped following the Link

The two bullet points above are not links but are very important subjects on the color orange in the blog.

The following example of how the blog works. As for reading on one blog talking point about the Embraer -190-195. The blogger then enters a notion hits the use for a blogging “Links” with an orange/Verdana font. Clicking on a Winging It hyperlink or underscored by linking line and going orange demonstrates a way for the reader to further enhance his content from a different subject source.

To illustrate this blogger conceptual idea further, He has chosen a Boeing Embraer alliance joining up from a discovered need from both company’s and making a solution through its products.  Embraer needs a complete market place and Boeing can give them that for its commercial aircraft in trade for additional working engineers which Boeing lacks because of its vast industries. Boeing needs to be seasoned and advanced engineers are already used up for the 777,787 and797 programs. It truly lacks at this business needs and Embraer has them ready.  They also have a valuable family of aircraft that will change the aviation world for years to come.

Afterburner Time: Below is an After-Burner type Hyper-Link underscore opening up a further discussion’

Brazil Concurs with the Boeing Offer. The orange afterglow is represented on the border of the page with a soft orange tone.border is a color not unlike the font of and gives Embraer A Whole Deal Signed.

The soft color of orange framing the background should merge the reader’s thoughts within the aviation world’s place of pure aspirations for flying aircraft. It’s not the sky or blue ocean driving the aircraft but the sum of all the aircraft parts propelled by its engine. The afterburn comes from the initial thrust is spent and that’s were Winging likes to live, in the area where the aircraft can accelerate beyond the engines designs with a little extra fuel thrown into the back of the engine

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What Does Embraer Do For Boeing?

Here below: is the standing order book from Embraer that Boeing will work with over the next multiple years.

Wikipedia Chart as of October 31, 2018

Boeing can and will increase firm orders for the Embraer-Brazil division. The merger will give Boeing a complete suite of aircraft in which to compete from 66 passengers to 405 passengers with its aircraft. Embraer builds even smaller than 66 seats, but Boeing will focus on the E170-E195 class of Embraer aircraft.

E-170  66-78 passngers
E-175 76-88 passengers
E-190 96-114 passngers
E-195  120-146 passengers 

The Paris airshow, this year, will be an interesting affair as both Airbus and Boeing will be showing respective orders from Bombardier CS 300 and the Embraer 190-195 as an event feature for small commercial aircraft. Most orders are filled with multi-year delivery schedule giving Boeing enough time to catch the Airbus A-220-200/Bombardier(CS300) efforts. Boeing didn't buy Embraer for its scant backlog of 119 Embraer models, but it will energize sales for this type of aircraft by tying/complimenting with the 737 line of Aircraft. Expect a common avionics suite for Embraer aircraft for its  Boeing customers. Also, expect a common engine family using the leap-1B type in its line-up. These considerations will take time as in another five years before Boeing/Embraer engineers, Boeing stuff, without giving up what Embraer brings to the single-aisle table. 

E-195

CS-300

Watch the Paris show for Embraer 's presence with orders and its own workforce/lead engineers, who will be and should be demonstrated in the front and center during the 797 is announced. Delta is in a position to take those models as being the North American launch customer for the 797. If not, there are other airline friends eager to assume the prestigious spot as 797 launch customer for the 797, who would enjoy having the Embraer as a side-kick in its family of aircraft and I'm thinking of United at this point. It is a "United" front looking over Delta's shoulder and one slip by Delta will make its own aircraft buying quest, less desirable, as they would lose the leverage it has over Boeing. Airbus will make Delta another sweet deal for its new A220/ Bombardier program.

I have flown on both the Bombardier Regional Jet and was impressed by its comfort and style but it lacks some refinement. I have also flown on the Embraer and it was very efficient and comfortable with nice passenger qualities but it lacks some passenger room. Did I even know who made each respective aircraft when I first sat down in the seat, "no"?

Both needed a better manufacturing logo throughout the cabin. I rarely read my ticket, only for seating assignment.

I just liked the leather seats on the Embraer and the Bombardier was a little noisy. But it does count when the accountants and ground crew get a hold of one of those models. It's now up to to the handlers when managing the product. Both Airbus and Boeing will have something to do with each frame and it will fall into the manufacturer's grove. I would see A220 becoming slightly wider than the Embraer base by about one inch and the Embraer slightly more efficient than the A220 by the length of the final approach. Airbus continues its quest from a "more is better" attitude, and Boeing moves with a "better is better" approach, it's still a horse race at the jetway.

What does Embraer do for Boeing, It makes it competitive?

Brazil Concurs The Boeing Offer, And Gives Embraer A Whole Deal Signed

The last post on January 9. 2018 encouraged Brazil to confirm the Embraer-Boeing merger in a 20-80 partnership share. Certain high-end concerns were validated for Embraer with Boeing to make it a done deal. Below are links to two articles which tell the back story of this deal with a bloggers commentary and a journalistic report for the deal completed.

• Brazilian government approves Boeing’s acquisition of Embraer’s commercial jet operation
• The Embraer-Boeing Deal Is Waiting Government Approval