Cul-De-Sac The Book Chapter One: It's The Water

The highest priced property should be found in a Cul-de -sac. It is an island within a sea of people. Having never living in one before this year, I found out about the little nuances of  Cul-de-sac: With a front window position for viewing in an arena setting; Watching  the semi circle of things going on in everyone's life; you are changed. The lack of traffic going through as its flow is exclusive to only those who live in the semi circle, makes the magic happen. The vision of the cul-de-sac is similar to a tribal village on the river of life. Neighbor's canoes put-in on its drive ways where expressions on neighbors faces tell the whole story of the day. One neighbor drives fast coming in, spinning around the circle and backing into its driveway. The other (new) neighbor doesn't know the rules of trash yet and puts out a huge TV box for which the city disposal won't pick-up.

After pealing back of layers of the Cul-de-sac culture reveals a trash day for yard leaves in November. I got this tip from my other neighbor on my starboard side. He wanted to know who did my re-roofing. Then went on to explain how he wanted me and himself to get on the irrigation board for the sixteen homes in the  two adjoining cul-de-sacs. The system is for  pressurized lawn watering coming from one well making this "water district". Somehow, I felt important by this subliminal offer for a neighborhood power play. 

My other neighbor didn't even live in the Cul-de-sac. He was from Vancouver, Wa and bought the house for his daughter, who just moved in with her three children. She just went through a nasty divorce as her ex went to live with his boy-friend. Oh-my, unplug the cable TV. I don't need it, its all happening out the front window. She's the one who whips her car around and backs-in her drive-way several times a day. She is rattled and it shows. Another neighbor in the circle is a single guy about age 31 is having trash issues on garbage day. His neighbor on his other side within the semi circle is a single women in her mid twenty's. She is never home during  the year I've lived at the crown of the circle for almost a year. Her dad owns the house and she is never home.

So far I've got this going for this analysis. One neighbor bought his house back in 2005 without even walking through it before buying. The Vancouver Guy drove-in one day and bought his house for daughter because he liked the feel of the Cul de sac. The next "neighbor" a 31 year old, had looked months at countless homes and found this one at an affordable price and bought the day he saw it.

Twelve months ago we turned the corner into the circle when looking at homes and before we got out of the car "we mentally bought the house". The Cul de sac had cast a spell on us within 30 seconds and once walking through the home my son made an offer on the spot for the home. Here we are and it is like living on an Island surrounded by other far flung neighborhoods, only they have continuous flow through traffic and noise.

The must be something going on here that is missed. Maybe it's the water and the water board guy was on to something.  Five homes on the semi circle and five buys with the same story. The houses were sold the day the buyer turned the corner into the cul de sac. No matter the condition or size the house was sold and the tribe began to grow around the circle. Within a year's time we have become a community whether or not it was intended from the start. Being a reclusive soul. I have talked more and gotten to know more in one year of time than ever before in my life. In fact a strange thing happened. The estimated value of our home has increased price by $66,000 in ten months the other homes around us have increased in value with only a nominal increase over the same period of time. The strange part is all we did was just mow the lawn, that's it!

There is magic in the air and now I am considering being a member of the two person water committee within the sixteen homes near us. People have a story to tell but they need to sit in a semi circle to tell it and that is what a cul de sac does. It makes neighbors be neighbors, then friends and finally they have your back (or at least your back fence).

If Boeing Bought Bombardier Then...

This whole Boeing fiasco with Bombardier C-series getting 1.5 Billion in front money from its Canadian government really, really, irks Boeing. Boeing is going for some kind of Pyrrhic Victory-kill shot. In some strange circumstance the audacity for having Mr. Toadian mania exists. (Sarcasm font) "Boeing doesn't really want to sell Canada or UK military its vast military product line when it slams an Irish wing plant supporting Bombardier's  C-series. Boeing doesn't care if another 20 F/A 18's are not sold to the Canadian military." 

It wants its pound of flesh through US tariffs attached to every Delta C-series delivered. The US government is happy when it receives hundreds of millions from Bombardier/Delta tariff money assessed.

Below: Boeing legal team jumps at Bombardier's airspace.

The tariff idea is effective but not efficient as the DoD spends billions more on each of Lockheed's F-35 contracting batches and additionally on its F-35 R&D upgrades or flawed concept corrections.

Boeing loves it when a plan comes together with its "B" team. The cheering from its legal department is deafening or is it screaming we hear as the Boeing wolves find bottom after reaching terminal velocity when biffing up its leap towards Bombardier C-series.  AKA,  "going off the edge".

Forbes values Bombardier at 3.6 billion US or the equivalent of  about 24 Boeing 787's at list price. Just buy 51% of Bombardier then let it sell all the regional aircraft, locomotives and ATV's into infinity that it wants to. Boeing would sell more F/A 18's, Chinooks and "other Military industrial complex stuff to Canada, Ireland and Great Britain as it helps Bombardier grow in Canada. Also invite Canada to supplement more funds to Bombardier/Boeing types of projects going forward, so it will rapidly turn the situation into the proverbial win/win tactic of big business.

But Boeing is playing small business instead because its pissed and it doesn't matter what others think.

NMA- Boeing Won't Launch What It Hasn't Already Sold

All the Boeing excuses for not launching the NMA (797) comes down to one point. It needs several hundred firmed NMA sales before any announcement.



Boeing has quipped market research, design maturity or the "right moment" which has all passed in time during the last five years. The research is done and various start-up programs have reached completion. Boeing had a plan-in-hand years ago after it stopped making the 757 back in 2005. It needed to build the 787, 777X and the Max before it could devote resources to the "NMA". Most of all it needed firmed launch customer firming of sales. No MOU's, Intents or order Conversions as experienced at the Max-10 launching. It just needs a stand-alone sales number for its NMA before launch announcements, then Boeing excuses of using market research, timing and design maturity makes sense.

Boeing already knows the NMA plan as it awaits for its customer(s) for pulling the trigger. The bigger the launch in unit numbers, the greater the long term success. 

Let's face it, the 737 Max-10 announcements at Paris was underwhelming with all the conversions intents and MOU's announced at the show. No one took anything away from Paris except from John Leahy's Boeing bluster comments about how few real firmed sales had during Boeing's 737-Max -10 launch announcement. Launch momentum was lost at the show by the plethora of conditional transactions where it only had less than a hundred direct and firmed 737 Max 10 sales for its launch. Quietly, Boeing is picking off one MOU at a time by turning the Intents into firm orders without much fanfare.

A new aircraft launch is all about the show and not accountant's sharpened pencils and legal pads of information telling a story having 360 737 Max 10's with firmed orders, MOU's or Intents including any options.

Boeing wants to bring clarity to any launch going forward. People in the industry walked away confused after the Paris announcements for the 737 Max 10. After months of analysis since Paris, the analyst can only factor in what has happened since the show and no one is paying attention much to the 737-Max 10 launch announcement with some of its MOU's, since firmed up.

My own data on the 737 Max Launch, indicates the following 360 or so Max 10's where agreed upon where 63 are newly firm orders classificaion, 90 remain MOU's and  214 are purchases out from Conversions classification (those from prior 737 orders booked). It remains a mess to sort out the launch other than say About 360 Max ten's are probably in play having sacrificed some of Boeing's 737 Max-8 orders to get to a 366 number.

The Boeing's NMA launch doesn't want a cluster of different announcements for its new family of aircraft (AKA 797). It just wants about 300 units ordered representing its launch customers before anything is announced! 

Boeing is waiting those customer's signatures and then using this interim time period for do due diligence aircraft R & D going forward. The timing for a launch should be from 2016-2019. Some say Boeing has waited too long for an Airbus answer. and should of already been way down the road from a NMA  launch date. If there is no answer to an unknown NMA configuration in the market place, time does not play into this process only to the extent of available resources and obtaining customer's firm ordering.

Ryan Air Re-positions Vacations Like A Cruise Ship's Makes Seasonal Changes

A seasonal adjustment not caused by climate but by under planning has caused Ryan Air to cancel flights through March 2018. This affects about 400,000 of its passenger customers over the same period of time. Since Ryan Air has captured a market for 129 million travelers in its vast airline system, the impact affects only a small percentage of its customers over the next six months. The margin of customers inconvenienced is amounts to  .62% of its customer base for the next six months or about 99.4% of its passenger will not be affected.

The problem stems from scheduling adequate  vacation time slots for it pilots and crews. The perfect work storm has occured and there is no way out of the fix until it sorts out vacation schedules while at the same time expanding new staffing resources. The flight cancellations directly affects Ryan Air's revenue stream for those estimated 400,000 customers who will not travel with the airline during the next six months. This lost revenue stream has altered several of Ryan Air's aspirations for fleet expansion and further canceling a merger with Alitalia from Italy.

The set back should be a one -off problem during 2017-2018 flying season. Ryan Air expects to resume its full-on growth program by 2019 as it finds more pilots, crews and air frames for its growth. Having a better control for its vacation scheduling by March of 2018 should right its operational ship.

Ryan Air is no longer considered a small player in the airline business as any kind of operational mishaps of this nature tend to spell big financial impacts, if not addressed ahead of time.  

F-35 Concurrency Leaves 108 of Its Type Behind

There was a theory called "concurrency". The methodology for concurrency is to make an initial copy and then return back to that copy for updating it into some futuristic version from its origin. The F-35 is that prototypical attempt. The concurrent theory puts versions 2F, 3i and 3F to the test. Each reiteration of software is a concurrent up grade of the aircraft where the maker can go back and upgrade the aircraft within its own configuration. The other aspect of concurrency allows the maker to change firm upgrades when innovation solves a problem such as in the case of ejector seat malfunctioning and it can go back concurrently with new ejector seats and replace the faulty ones in all previously delivered aircraft. Concurrency is depended upon as the F-35 evolves through its development phases, but now a problem arises with the F-35.

The initial F-35 delivered are so far away from being concurrent with the new F-35's coming off the assembly line it makes the first 108 F-35's obsolete as a war fighter and it cannot be mustered for combat without billions of dollars spent renovating those first F-35 already fielded. The early 108 F-35's are a pain to make it concurrent as a fully capable war fighter. The military is considering making the early copies as training aircraft since the Air Force Navy and Marines have no dedicated 5th generation training fighters in its inventory, as all those currently flying should be marked for full combat capability as soon as the F-35 development phase ends. 

A decision would be made by the time Full Rate Production begins. If Lockheed can produce 140 F-35's a year at a full rate and at lower cost it would be a matter of months before every of the 108 early builds could be replaced with fully capable war fighters. The military does need training aircraft and the most expensive F-35's are all those early builds which may be turned into 5th generation training aircraft it sorely needs. Concurrency works after the development phase is completed.

The bottom line, is concurrency has put the military into a fine fix as Ollie from Laurel and Hardy would say. It just so happens that Tax Payer money is expendable.

Paper On The Ground Says Boeing Sets UP 797 Office

Boeing 797 Office is phase one of setting up.


A memo was discovered saying Mark Jenks will lead the 797 program forward, but that's not all. The former 787 program chief will also lead a group towards making a way forward for new designs and innovations for its aircraft making. My own take.

Reference: Rueters news

Seatle Times Feature: Dominic Gates

The slip of information is not a confirmation for a 797 program commitment or announcement for a the next "airshow debut", but it does validate more money is being spent for office space having big blue doors with 797 stenciled on it.

The Paris airshow 2017 offered a "797" teaser and it may announce as early as 2019 as a follow through at the next Paris Airshow and right in front of the Airbus Pavilion😜

Even though it was earlier stated by Winging It, (an 797 announcement would come at Farnborough 2020), this latest on-the-floor memo indicates a ramp-up for the next Paris extravaganza in 2019. Boeing is further along than anticipated with its 797 concept.

Ever Wonder What a Millennial Is?

I keep hearing the word millennial every day on the news or on tabloids its the buzz word to make you pay attention without a proper explanation for who or what a millennial is. Here is the official breakout of generational references from the website:  http://genhq.com/generational_birth_years/

• Gen Z, born 1996 to present
• Millennials, born 1977 to 1995
• Gen X, born 1965 to 1976
• Baby Boomers, born 1946 to 1964
• Traditionalists, born 1945 and earlier

You are a millennial if you are the age of 28-40 during 2017. Anything above 40 years of age is probably a GenX. I am a baby boomer at age 65.

CDB Leasing Says "Book'm Dano" Boeing's Momentum Order Update(MOU)

CDB Leasing, a Chinese airplane leasing company just signed for 60 Boeing Aircraft for about $8.2
Billion at list price.

• 42 Max 8's
• 10 Max 10's
• 8 787-9's

The sixty ordered closes off a long negotiation period since the Paris Airshow June 2017. CDB signed its MOU/intent with Boeing at the Airshow. Boeing has not posted this transaction to its order book until its weekly updates are posted. A firming of a MOU is a final step such as the Turkish Airline deal for 40 787-9's were is at the MOU stage and the MOU deal would not be booked until that MOU/intent was finalized with Boeing. There remains a doubtful Malaysia Air intent announced at the While House last week for purchasing 8 787-9's, but it will become finalized in due time. Boeing is building up a back-log of 787 MOU's, for which some or all could be finalized by year's end and then could be reflected by customer name at its discretion.

News Source For CDB Leasing Announcement.

Qatar Airways takes delivery of first 747-8 freighter (orders two more)

787 Book To Bill Graphic

Since 2004 Boeing has booked 787 orders but started delivering in 2011. each year an ideal number is for every unit booked a unit is delivered, thus indicating a 1-1 ratio of Booked to Bill. A graph  below shows this relationship. The Blue line is booked (orders) and the orange line is billed (delivered )787. The goal for 2017 is to have the two lines intersect at year's end thus equaling a Book To Bill ratio of one.

The graph below below is an example of  Boeing's goal over the last six years since its first delivery was made in 2011. The Book to Bill ratio intersected in 2012 and 2013 during  production start-up period. However, in 2017 with the year incomplete there is a possibility the lines will intersect when accounting is done with Boeing's numbers.

A Sunday Read: 797 A Blended Wing Body??

Once in a while the blog features a Sunday read for those who like sipping coffee and Sunday morning toast. The reading assignment for slackers below has a link included out of courtesy.

Link to source 

"Dear Mr. Berko: In January 2010, you advised me to invest $10,000 in Boeing. I bought 157 shares at $63. Thanks to you, I’ve quadrupled my money, and the $5.68 dividend, which has increased every year, is a 9 percent yield on my cost. Thank you from my heart. Now I wonder whether I should sell Boeing because Airbus is leading the market with its A380 jumbo jet, which seats 615 people. According to my stockbroker, Airbus has advance orders for 200 of these planes. He thinks this will “crush” Boeing’s future revenues, earnings and dividends. He says these huge jumbo jets will be the “workhorse planes of the future.” He wants me to sell Boeing and lock in a $29,800 profit because he believes that Boeing will reduce its dividend and trade much lower next year. -- GB, Port Charlotte, Fla.

Dear GB: I’d like to take the credit for that prodigiously profitable purchase. But I’m certain as sin I wasn’t responsible for that Boeing (BA-$253) recommendation in 2010. I wasn’t an enthusiast until April 2012, when I met a minor vice president from BA who acted as if he were a major big shot. He looked like Dr. Strangelove, and I disliked him immediately. But he figuratively kicked me in the bum for being a troglodyte and failing to recognize that war is a “vastly more lucrative business than building 707s, 717s, 727s, 737s, 747s, 757s, 767s, 777s and 787s for peaceniks.” He was so serious that I wanted to ask about what will happen when all the 7s are used up. He told me that stockholders and most of BA’s 150,000 employees cheer when the political, ethnic and cultural differences between nations cause conflict, bloodshed, destruction and death. “God bless these differences,” Strangelove commented, “because revenues from fighter jets, helicopters, guided weapons systems and electro-optical systems account for nearly half of my company’s revenues.” He said that military business is more profitable than civilian business because contracts are competitive in the latter. He bragged that BA has dozens of congressmen on its payroll and then winked at me.

However, BA is no slouch in the jumbo jet business and won’t take a back seat to Airbus, which couldn’t make a dollar if it owned a printing press. Boeing has kept quiet about its new 797, which can fly 12,000 miles at 660 mph. It can carry enough food to feed 1,000 passengers and enough fuel to take them plus several thousand pieces of luggage to their destination. The 797 has aisles that are as narrow as an arrow and seats that are about the size of a child’s booster seat. But BA’s blended wing body, with no clear dividing line between the wings and the fuselage, is a significant advantage over the older, tubular-style structure. This increases the lift-to-drag ratio by 50 percent, resulting in a weight reduction of 25 percent. This makes the 797 33 percent more fuel-efficient than the Airbus A380, which has a top speed of just 634 mph. But bigger isn’t better! You need to be at the airport hours before departure. And after reaching your destination, it may take longer to deplane and retrieve your luggage than the length of time you spent in flight. BA’s giant jumbo should be ready for takeoff by 2021 and is so vastly superior to the A380 that Airbus may have to lay off a significant portion of its 73,000-person workforce.

Boeing expects 2017 revenues of $91.4 billion and earnings of $10.20 a share. In 2018, an expected increase in military contracts may push revenues to $94 billion, and with strong net profit margins of 6.7 percent, earnings may grow to be above the $11 level. Therefore, many on Wall Street expect that today’s $5.68 dividend will be raised to $6.50 next year. Though BA has risen sharply and perhaps a bit too fast this year, please keep this stock. Over 25 analysts agree. BA continues to be a good long-term investment, and I’d not be surprised if the board authorized a 3-for-1 split. The most recent BA split (2-for-1) was in June 1997."