Boeing Sides with Emirates At Dubai

Boeing sides with Emirates at Dubai Airshow November 12-16 2017. If ever there was an awkward moment on the world stage it is set for Boeing and Emirates at Dubai’s main entrance. Study the pavilion map and there it is Boeing and Emirates side by side at the front door. There is anticipation in the error after looking for Airbus or EADS on the Floor Map and not finding Airbus(look on map for stall 552 Airbus Group). Boeing greets’ at the Dubai pavilion’s front door for those who enter the hall. Look for EADS or Airbus who have big deals pending somewhere at the airshow. Most likely they will make a presences at the exhibitor’s tarmac with its static displays and what not.

2013 Dubai Airshow Reports:

1. Emirates  - $76 billion

The Dubai-based airline owned by the local government made history at the Dubai Air Show in November with the biggest single order ever for Boeing: 115 firm orders for the 777X-9X and 35 for 777-8Xs. Those two newest versions of the successful 777 twinjet haven't flown yet; they will enter service around 2020.

That was then in 2013 and now is November 2017. What’s on the table is another Emirates mega order for either Boeing or Airbus. It’s no accident Boeing is across the aisle from Emirates at the pavilion’s front door. Something again is going to happen at the show and the two big Dubai players are a hand shake away from each other as if no accident occurred but a plan comes together.

The year 2013 debut an immense 777X coup of 115 777-X9’s and 35 Boeing 777-8X slamming the door on Airbus aspirations for having a show stopping announcement with mid-east fleets. Boeing won the show. The talk today is centered on the 787 family and the A-350 family of aircraft. Having Emirates a stable mate on the exhibition hall is no accident for Boeing. It bought the most expensive real estate in the pavilion next to Emirates.

Boeing at the table head with Emirates, and EDIC an Emirate partner with Mubadala an Emirates bank who are all greeting the crowds by no accident. Something big is going to happen and it won't embarrass those at the head of the table at the main pavilion.

It will be a gross embarrassment for either if an announcement for an Airbus order permeates the pavilion air for the A-350 which Emirates is closely studying. Boeing has been told to wait until a decision is made later in the year for which happens to fall near the Dubai show date on November 12-16, 2017. It is not said an announcement will be forthcoming at Dubai for either maker’s bid with Emirates but it stands to reason Emirates will not snub its neighbor, Boeing, at the party across the pathway from Boeing’s own pavilion spot.

Font Door is  About 100 feet away from Boeing

Emirates walks by Boeing every time going to the Great Show Hall. It has three chalets in a row like Boeing as depicted by three orange bars above.

Further away beyond Emirates is chalet P-10, the Airbus gigantic chalet which is double of what either Boeing has outdoors in the chalet swamp. This would make up for Airbus stationed at the back left center of the hall with its long display.

The front door position is like setting at the head of the banquet table at a state diner. Airbus is closer to the kid's table than the head of the table as both Boeing and Emirates find themselves.

Boeing is well positioned to hear great news at Dubai and Airbus is positioned at the end of the chalet flight line in position P-10. Emirates is about mid span between Airbus and Boeing’s chalet position. Boeing has three standard chalets and Airbus has the biggest Chalet on the flight line out of everyone but does not have a cherished spot in the great pavilion hall as Boeing does.

What does this all mean? Emirates keep its friends close as the saying starts to quote. A spot at the table is also important. Airbus is there to impress and Boeing is well positioned to lobby. There is a wait until the Dubai Airshow for finding out who played it best.

Airline Supply And Demand (101) Is Off The Tracks

A Train pulls up at the station and the passengers walk on board. Without little attention the passenger is seated and gets comfortable as possible, Snoring passengers and crying children take little notice for the new passenger. Only the passenger then squirms about a little and thinks about the Train fare and wishing for a private compartment. It doesn’t matter what train maker or car builder represents the system this is the only way from here to there.

The $99 fare for the next ten hours is more of an adventure than a vacation. The Train is an immovable market object because it is what it is, an immovable market object going down the track whether or not it competes.

Airplanes are not much different than the train example. The passenger becomes a fixed object and the airplane becomes the variable item on a quest to make money. If it takes narrower seats or less pitch to make money so be it, the fixed passenger won’t change the dynamic unless something else happens where money can be made. That is the essence of free market evolution in the 21st century.

The airline industry is entering a period of more space for its passengers with less room used on the aircraft. Eventually the scientist are projecting a standing passenger rather than a seated passenger giving the traveler more room. Putting on a $400,000 helmet gives the passenger the universe through its thoughts and eye motions. The body is packed snugly in rows upon row of other bodies hooked up to that helmet.

Economy Plus Cabin Sans Helmet

In fact the airlines will advertise the best helmets showing tropical flora and fauna while sending scents of pineapple to a passengers sensory organs. It may also induce sleep for an extra charge, even if landing in Alaska on a Pineapple express.  

Additionally, the premium economy position supports the passenger with nine vertical positions. The business class has a hard sided container making it more than just an economy body bag. First class brags of lie flat vertical incline of 45 degrees. They even get a wake-up call before landing. Restrooms or sanitary stations summons a flight attendant coming from a “seat” passenger's helmet by looking at the Icon for such service longer than five seconds. Then the flight attendant will move you and your flight bag out to the center aisle as if you are a hanging side of beef on a meat hook.

Passengers wonder where the word "seat" comes from since the tradition of posing like the letter K was mentioned in ancient history has long been an abandoned custom of travelers.

Why is this so and what happened to the traveler? 

"The airlines drove the airplane maker to this and it comes from corporate profit margins just for its owners, the stock holders,” exclaims the Steward of Airline services standing at the boarding counter.

“It’s all for the passenger’s pleasure and safety after-all”, trumpets the sign over the exit.

Upon hearing this, I googled "flight bag" and it gave the answer in clear terms, “The passenger space found on an airline wrapped in a bag, box or placed on a slanted board”.

Sounds reasonable as I studied further on the laws of supply and demand. Demand drives the market and supply drives demand. Not being confused I went back to the train station analogy and saw the wisdom of trains are trains in spite of a $99 fare. 

The rails are so wide and the engine so big. Crossings are crossings and passengers demand its square foot of room as stated in the Constitution of Travel. This is also known as COT as a place guaranteed even on safari.

Therefore, the laws of supply and demand starts with the airline demands in order to make money and its ability to convince customers they are getting a good deal from flying 17 hours straight through using a flight bag containing a 400K entertainment helmet. Don’t forget the 9 position vertical sling found in economy. The customer asks about economy plus and the flight steward replies, “Don’t get me started go back to your flight bag”.

Market forces are in play where the profit demands an ample supply of revenue centers. This all explained in the college level economics class. The passenger is just a place holder after-all. The course work refers to place holders in Economical-Accounting 404 during the senior year of school.

Passengers are more of an unavoidable factor when an airline seeks its profits. It demands an ample supply of profits in spite of its customer’s desire for a relaxing trip at an affordable “seat” in premium economy. 

Even though a passenger can’t afford a business class box it expects relief in economy. After-all, after thirty seconds staring at the boy/girl icon in the corner of the 400K helmet visor a customer expects a flight attendant to release them out of the flight bag to do some of its business next to business class.

All of this is because of train travel, so don’t blame the airlines, blame the steam engine.

The 787-10 Took-off And Landed & Other 1st Quarter 787 Musings

The 787 1st Quarter has landed and what a finish as March goes out like a Lion. The 787-10 flew like a Dream in-liner with its stable mates he 787-8 and 787-9. It was blustery and some clouds as the 787-10 ushered March out like a Lion. And.... April showers of adulation will bring May Flowers of more orders. Here is the March 787 program score cards.

787-10 First Flight

PR News Wire

March went out like a lion

A-whippin' up the water in the bay.

Then April cried and stepped aside, 

And along came pretty little May! 

The bottom of the frame says it all, the 787 has 1,211 of its 787 family booked! It also has delivered 532 frames by 1st Qtr 2017. It has become an aviation Juggernaut. The Boeing program has already crept closer to the mid-point of delivery equaling unfilled orders so Boeing still has its work cut out for its sales office. Out of 1211 orders booked Boeing has delivered about 44% of that number were the unfilled tally represents 56 percent. Using the 1,211 787 order number Boeing needs to deliver another 74 of its 787 for marking the halfway point in its 787 backlog to deliver ratio. This of course assumes no other orders will be booked during the next six months. The 12 Dreamliner a month production number will deliver 72 frames up through the first week of October and meet a 50/50 split for 787 Dreamliners delivered with Dreamliners unfilled. Only if Boeing does not book another 787 order during this time period.

Fig. 1

Fig.2 below marks the year 2017 quarter by quarter of accumulated 787 deliveries and orders.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3 Below is a snapshot of productivity when comparing the Boeing guidance of 12 frames a month delivered. The first Quarter 2017 has fallen off the 12 a month pace by about 1.33 frames over 90 days. The 10.67 average number within this time frame recognizes the usual slow first of year start and the 787-10 in process interruption in Charleston. When Charleston completes its third 787-10 test frame it may resume its normal 787-8 and 787-9 production rate. After June 1, 2017 look to see Charleston production to resume its establish pace from the last two years. Everett, WA will have no production interruptions even as 787-10 testing moves to Everett, WA. With all 787-10 test frames.

Fig.  4: Below is the program's long term strength. The order column paints a picture of order ebb and flows. 2017 is projected as a slower order year than other years. A Winging It estimation is for 150 wide bodies ordered during 2017 of which the 787 could be pressed to reach 50 of those numbers. However, there are a few large orders pending which could fall to Boeing's chief competitor Airbus. There is also the change the aviation market from WB production's saturation and those pending large orders may hold off until market conditions optimize itself for completing those large orders. Finally, Boeing has positioned itself well to weather an order drought during 2017 and Airbus is operating on thinner margins from a production point of view and its over-all WB backlog. A solid order year for Boeing could doom its competitor as a second tier supplier of wide bodied aircraft. All-in-all, we'll see how 2017 plays out.

In Figure five, the chart demonstrates the 787-9 progress and is rapidly closing the 787-8 to 787-9 balance as the 787-9 is only about 132 behind at this time, and it should take only 18 more months catching the 787-8 in flying numbers. During that 18 month period the 787-10 make its debut with its customers as a flying example. The 787-8 has run out its strong initial order string having only 86 customer orders in backlog which may also be subject to change when customers weigh towards more 787-9 orders by converting its long held 787-8 orders. It also remains to be seen if Boeing will come out with a 797 that would complement both its single aisle aircraft and its wide bodied aircraft as a market gap filler. The announcement of such an offering may increase interest in the 787-8 customers as they would have a tandem pair covering the middle of the market with both a high density and mid density offering.  

Fig. 5 Below

Boeing's Book Setting Up 2017 For A Solid Year

These are preliminary numbers for Boeing orders taken during March and over-all first quarter 2017. After Boeing publishes its final March numbers, a clearer picture will determine that a typically slow first quarter is an encouragement for its 2017 order outlook. Below (in Figure 1.) is the unofficial March order synopsis until Boeing 1^st quarter final numbers are posted. It is safe to say the single aisle division is well and alive and has anchored its presence for 2017.

Fig. 1

Above includes the March 28th Boeing Posting of 53 unidentified 737 orders and four 787's ordered. “Winging It”, understands at this point in time, it must assume orders are for 737 Max-8's and cancellations are for the 737-8 NG's. It also assumes 787 orders are for the -9's when used for model type adjustments. Boeing information made available will adjust Winging It Charts. Only a final accounting will validate an accurate activity for orders during 2017. This chart and others are used as guidelines and not actual firm numbers but is an excellent indicator of ordering activity. 

The summary reporting for first quarter to date 2017 has indicated a gross 110 737's were ordered and an additional 28 wide body orders were booked. However, adjustments are made for determining the net number using month by month tallies made within the above chart. During the first three months Boeing has cancelled an assumed 23 737-8's NG and another 5 of its 747-8's. The ending net numbers give an actual picture for first quarter. Boeing netted 87 single aisle 737's. This is where assumptions come into play until actual numbers are available. A cancellation of 737 NG's may be a conversion from a former order and added to the 737 Max 8 order tally by the same number. However, the net effect totals an 87 YTD single aisle order.

All netting effect flows into a cash value when using Boeing's latest price listing. Boeing has a net $9.66 billion single aisle booked value using its latest list price listing for its 2017orders. It also booked another 4.45 Billion from its wide body orders. This would include the 747 cancellations and the fifteen KC-46 orders during the quarter. In all the total net book value for 2017 is about $14.11 billion at list prices.

The data above is used in the tracking of Boeing vs Airbus, "World's Largest Airplane Maker" data. Winging It is waiting for Airbus' posted first quarter numbers from its website. To date, they have under performed its expectation, but it is known for posting after Boeing compiling its "last minute" orders and deliveries. I am expecting Airbus to come out with about 100 single aisle orders for its first quarter summary of its orders and delivery recap. It currently has a minus order status.

My First Aviation Kiss A DC-3 1969

A long time ago when I was seventeen I was smitten by aviation's allure on a DC-3 flying across Montana. The reason was not import, it was high school football after-all. The trip was the event on the venerable DC-3. Below is a video from a you tube archive demonstrating a Colombian flight. 

Flying onboard Aerovilla Douglas DC-3(C-47A-80-DL) HK-3292 (c/n 19661) engine start + cockpit views. Departure from Villavicencio META to La Padrera, Capt. Joaquin Hernan Sanclamente & copilot Pablo Maurico Tovar (Date September 1999). see also

http://www.michaelprophet.com/News_ar...

It was bubble gum at 6,000 feet to open the ear canal and equalize the eardrum pressure. The FL10 was to be maintained even going over the Rocky Mountains or the Continental Divide as "we" high school chaps would call it. Taking off from Missoula, MT or MSO airport on a vintage charter airplane was a common expectation as none even knew what a 737 was in 1969. Prop planes and prop jets were the common equipment at the smoke jumper capital of the US Forest Service in Missoula.

The two hour flight to Billings, Mt was a big adventure as all first flights are, where later a Johnson Flying Service Ford Tri-Motors was the next adventure.

The aviation bug invested every imagined or experienced flight from that point forward. The "football" trip ruined my aviation innocence. The view from the starboard side of the Rocky Mountains hundreds of feet below was stunning, then a look at the engine caused fear and angst as sparks continually shot backwards as the motor made a popping noise. The one flight attendant seamed uninterested at the noise as she made sure everyone had a candy bar and a fruit for every passenger. An updraft from the Rocky Mountains caught the wings and flexed them skyward making a bending tin noise as the movie title "Pushing Tin" suggests.

Pushing Tin Trailer

John Cussack

Flying wasn't just enjoyable it was an adventure and football didn't matter at all.

Boeing Gets Its Wings (plant) In Everett, Wa.

Boeing is building more than a 1.2 million square foot plant in Everett, Washington, it’s getting its wings for lofty soaring in the financial markets. A recent Wall Street 24/7 article  Chris Lange has pointed out the subtle and strategic Boeing Change Management move in his article. No longer will Japan's heavy industry independently shoulder the wing load as Boeing will produce the 777X family of folding CFRP wings. AKA (carbon fiber reinforced plastic) 

Wing Plant Under Construction Biz Journal Photo 2015.

The whole move to Everett is not about the 777X wing but a bigger picture which is emerging. Boeing is embarking on an additional CFRP expedition into the world of concept, design and make process. Boeing wants to control its own destiny in this world of high tech adventures. Value added comes to mind as a power point word play offering. Boeing has shifted in a seismic manner using Everett expertise and Charleston manufacturing muscle. The pathway is being paved with nuanced cement pouring on acreage found around the US. Everett wing plant is built for much more than the 777X wing. It is positioned to... start naming the commercial, military and space list of things to do before getting too excited about wing plant possibilities. 

Wing Plant Model

Its extremely huge autoclaves could cure an M-1 Abrams Main Battle Tank, if the military wanted a CFRP-MBT, hah no chance for that unless...?  The crazy group of "Men in Black Rimmed Glasses" maybe turned loose in Everett's 1.2 million sq. ft. playground. The outcome is a vast array of ideas for every purpose using CFRP. Trekkies say, "the Space the Final Frontier Convention", being held at the Everett wing plant sometime after the "San Diego Convention Center" loses Comic-Con in 2024. Fat chance that will happen when the 797 needs wings followed by a new single aisle wing. Don't forget my wish list for a MBT offering that the guy in Black Rimmed Glasses proposed. They might even make a movie sequel to "Men in Black". Will Smith may drift on by when picking colors out for his new jet. 

Wing Plant CFRP Auto Clave could fit a A1 M1 MBT @ 144 inch wide where the autoclave is 336 inches at its widest point

The point is, Boeing has made a square foot pivot for a purpose driven facility for which Charleston does not have in any foreseeable time. Boeing has inserted another manufacturing and development cog within its Everett facility foot-print.

Machine in Wing Making mode.