Thinning Out The 787 Order Book

Many Boeing customers have already taken a plethora of orders through initial delivery and some have not delivered even one order suggesting they make the list of zero Boeing 787 deliveries to date. Hence they make my deeper list of the "what's up with that", or the list of potential customers from limbo.

They have earned the "Chartreuse Order of the Soft Question Mark". Taking data from "All Things 787" page. Then I have isolated the zero delivery list of Boeing's 787 customers, and from that list, I wonder if they will ever deliver having the questionable color of chartreuse?

The white coded customer are solid and should deliver into the future, where the color becomes a questionable Boeing order, but "should" deliver anyways. Knowing Aeroflot has tried to bail out on Boeing, the order remains on the books. The unidentified customer is surrounded in mystery by its own nature of not knowing the customer by reputation. The Republic of Iraq is a customer in a volatile part of the world where money, peace and war provides a very inconsistent environment and future delivery is not assured by those local conditions. Color coded Unidentified customers remain uncertain by not enough information available to rate a certainty for delivery. 

The fact is the zero delivery list is made up by 787-8 and 787-9 types only since the 787-10 has yet to begin its delivery. Boeing is five years into the delivery program for the 787, and having customers not ever receiving certain types of 787 or none at all, puts them into the spotlight of when first delivery will occur! 

The white coded lines are for customers who already have production aircraft scheduled or other types delivered. Uzbekistan Airways does have scheduled production slots but the few number ordered and its region makes an uncertainty until production actually starts on its two aircraft. They have never received a 787 to date.

El Al could have a questioned delivery time since its a volatile region and conditions do change quickly, but it remains on schedule to receive its first dream-liner. Geopolitical condition do affect several customers not because of an airlines solid reputation, but because of conditions beyond an airlines control, and it may place an order even in jeopardy of its delivery sometime into the future. This is not an exact prediction, but does demonstrate Boeing has some risks at the back of its order book. 

Woe Is Me: Airbus Has a Battery Of A350 Delivery Problems

Airbus is giving Boeing a chance to crank out 12 787 a month over the next several month as A350 production languishes from a battery of supplier problems. The 2016 goal for Airbus was to produce about 50 A350's during 2016. However interior supplier problems have arisen and are being resolved of course over the remainder of the year. The Airbus production outlook has dropped below the 2016 50 unit production outlook where it may only deliver in the low forties. 

Airbus A350s Delays Could Help Boeing 777, 787 Orders

This slows the Airbus A350 units to market. Case in point is the recent Boeing 787-9 delivery to United Airlines, seating 252 (seat guru) flying from San Francisco, CA, to Singapore, after which Singapore Airline is going to receive its first A350-900 about four months later for a competitive flight from Singapore to San Francisco. The Singapore A350-900 will seat 253-257 seats as it has announced.

Airlines notice who is doing what to whom in the market place suggests Boeing has an advantageous backlog over Airbus as it delivers more than twelve 787 a month at times. This opens opportunity for its customers in the market place. An airline can order a 787, and it can expect a firm delivery date for said purchase. Airbus has a mushy production schedule at this time and will promise customers an "about" delivery time for any A350 purchase. 

In fact, the Boeing 787 backlog is less than the Airbus A350 backlog by a comparative number of 733 units in backlog for Boeing and 778 for Airbus. The Boeing build rate will increase pressure for Airbus customers when it decides on what airplane product to choose as production slots tighten up with its customers from the Airbus slower delivery pace. If Airbus delivers twenty-one more A350's during 2016 from this date, it will fall way short of Boeing's 787 production pace of more than seventy-two additional 787's before the end of this year.

Without any additional orders for the two competing Airline framers, the back order for 2016 ending, should be about:

Estimation for market backlog by end of 2016:

Boeing 787’s      665

Airbus A350’s     772

Boeing has about 107 more wide body slots available over Airbus backlog by years end. The potential future sales opportunity may steal customers from Airbus in the second half of the year since Airbus will have a difficult case for when a customer will exactly receive an A350 when ordered. 

Iran and Boeing Dance With A Deal

A Deal has been struck with Iran that it will buy Boeing aircraft in some numbers. It will announce by weeks end what the "Deal" entitles Boeing and Iran in trade. The US federal government has oversight on every aspect of the deal as it closely is monitoring Iran's aspiration in the Mid-East region. The risk for Boeing is immense, if something were to go south with Iran's political aspirations for its region. The deal should address every aspect of the Boeing offering from Single aisle through the wide body family of aircraft.

Expect some Iranian caveats in play as it has probably thrown Boeing ancillary support and Boeing would expect some conditions are met completing the whole "Deal". I would expect Boeing throwing a sweetener into the deal pot from a bulk order point having some conditional aspirations joined within the regions risk issues. However, the measure of the deal may enlighten investors as compared with the prior Airbus purchase from last year. If Boeing exceeds Airbus in units purchased then Boeing can expect a stock market surge, where if Boeing losses ground to Airbus by unit count, investors should respond as Boeing doing a high risk venture with an adversarial country and will mute stock reaction. A generous commitment from Iran suggests its own renewal need out-ways Boeing's risk taking.

The Link to the feature Article for this topic: 

Iran and Boeing Co (BA) Strike Deal

When Do You Know The 787 Has Reached Maturity?

"Boeing reorg streamlines 787 production oversight"

So says the "Seattle Times" and Beverley Wyse, Chef 787 trouble shooter from Charleston, SC. Who has repositioned herself back to Seattle as... President of Shared Services or whatever the heck that is. It sounds like a golden parachute was deployed for her as loose ends have been mopped up for Charleston’s production output.

"Along with a shift in the reporting structure for management of its 787 production sites on opposite coasts, the company announced Beverly Wyse will be president of its Shared Services Group.”

It also signals a bench mark is now in place for reaching 14 787's a month with a joined effort of its Everett, Wa. facility. Beverley is ready to collect a career dividend with a new functionary duty of Boeing's Shared Services Group. "Huh?"  

... "which provides common internal services and systems company wide."

Once more, huh? 

Therefore:

She’ll be replaced by Joan Robinson-Berry, 56, a former McDonnell Douglas executive who has held many supplier management, business and engineering positions at Boeing. Robinson-Berry will have overall responsibility for the South Carolina site, which includes engineering and 737 MAX work, but she won’t be involved in day-to-day 787 Dreamliner operations there.

Dave Carbon, the vice president of 787 operations in South Carolina, will report not to Robinson-Berry but to Mark Jenks, 55, the Everett-based leader of the 787 program.

One last time, Huh?

The music has stopped and everyone is told to please sit down in the nearest chair. All this suggest Boeing is extremely confident in its leadership for a mature program such as the 787. The airplane wars has new generals at the helm and Boeing's battery issue is so last decade. Gone are supply chain problems, gone are strayed rivets and errant shims. The 787 has arrived as a staple Boeing mechanism towards profitability.

100 More Journals to Reach 1000 and I'll Take a Break

It’s been about 2 and 1/2 years and over 900 entries into this blog concerning aviation, Boeing and modern military marvels. I hope to complete the 1000th journal by end of 2016. If not it will be the beginning of 2017 in January. It is the journal's hope to bring interested people to the forefront of Boeing's endeavors in a biased manner. It is also this journal's intent to write about and log opinion and articles about military jets and progress. I have featured the Destroyer class DDG-1000 because it’s a modern marvel. 

The last hundred journal entries will include putting the 787-10 progressions to bed and the Boeing 777X in a complete configuration as it exits through 2016. At about the halfway point for 2016 there are many more talking points to sort through. Up to this point, it has been a challenge to include what would be interesting for this blog/journaling. However, the topics are infinite and are changing the world we live in within the framework of the Boeing products.

The transition of air travel is paced by the 787 as the A350 has too few copies flying to effect the world of travel at this time. Therefore, the 787 is changing the travel culture to anywhere, anytime and with any value for the passenger.

Boeing Meets Twelve 787 A Month For 90 Days

Acknowledging "All Things 787" for base data. Charts are created by Winging It for monthly recap. 

Below are fifty-three 787 delivered YTD. This suggests if Boeing delivers 12 more during June it will obtain Sixty-five 787 delivered at the halfway point during 2016 making for a 130 unit time for 2016. However, Boeing has a tentative eighteen 787 for delivery in June, thus opening up the strong possibility Boeing will meets its own guidance during 2016 delivering about 138 787 for the 2016 effort.

The 90 day moving average totals of 12 month, suggests Boeing has kept its guidance of twelve 787 a month on track during this period of time. Boeing has work to do going forward as it has depleted its production backlog for future month deliveries and has schedule a substantial number of units for both the months of June and July. If Boeing does meet its goal in June for 18 units and in July for 13 units, then it will demonstrate mastery over its production output for the 787.

The 787-9 has taken the production in a dominating way as it now out produces the 787-8 by almost a 2-1 pacing ratio during the last sixty days. The 787-8 production is dropping as fast as the 787-9 production is increasing as scheduled. The indication is the 787-9 is on a solid transition and also indicates the production does not have any noteworthy problems other than normal day to day issues resolved with-in each production cycle.

The 787-9 demonstrates a 2-1 advantage for in production units as demonstrated below.

Eighteen Are Scheduled For Delivery for June 2016 numbering 4 787-8's and 14 787-9's

Thirteen Are Scheduled For Delivery for July 2016 

Three 787-8's and 10 787-9's

The MAX-X Formerly Known As The "MOM"

The problem then is found in the marketing point where aircraft parts for a Max-X would be significantly different than its formal offering on current Max types. However, Boeing is already stuck with a stand-alone type citing its aging 757, as it loses airspace due to its eminent retirement. A 737 Max 10-X is under consideration as reported by Reuters. 

The real decision tree will be based on units "possibly ordered" if it decides taking this route. The Max-10X would have to have 1,000 plus units committed "what Ifs",  in order to spend scarce resource capital on a new single aisle type. Boeing is taking a customer headcount on how many would order if launched or announced. 

Recommended reading assignment:

Boeing's Red Headed "Step Child", The 757 Replacement

The window for a decision of this nature will come soon after the 777X makes first delivery so Boeing will take the next four years making that decision before announcing. It is just in the white board phase of concept with erasers being handy. 

The key to this mystery is coming from what the engine makers are doing to develop an engine fit for this new aircraft configuration. If CFM is testing a larger Leap-1 it isn't for Airbus and it won't fit on a current 737, therefore the Max-10 is under consideration with some developmental money on the table. The MOM could be a reality by 2021.

What IF The F-22 Inventory Grows

The what-ifs are tossed about as Generation 4.5 F-22 resurgence appears on the horizon. The F-22 could impact the F-35 and it should not become a reality until the F-35 reaches IOC or has proven its fifth generation status in actual world time duties. The F-22, became a much beleaguered program so much that Lockheed Martin were only allowed to build 187 of its type during the first decade of the 21st century. However, things happen such as ISIS, Iraq and all things terrible in the world and the F-22 had a real world shake down.

 Photo provided by Comprehensive Information Link  A must read

It proved to be a real fighter, and so much better than a 4.0 fighters, the Air Force wants another (at least) 200 F-22 in its inventory. It’s truly a remarkable aircraft as it covers the battle field with two engines and can benefit from the F-35 development. The F-35 and F-22 have a symbiotic relationship. Everything learned on the F-35 program may transfer to the F-22 standing inventory. The Air Force would like to increase its standing F-22 force as the world's most capable fighter in its time slot. The F-35 can give the F-22 some of its highly developed and secret capabilities. The F-22 is very fast with two engines and has Gen 4.5 stealth capability. It’s a blue collar fighter with all the bells and whistles that any adversary regrets meeting in air space. It can out fly China, Russia and any other nations most advanced fighter. 

The F-22 will give the F-35 more time in the tinkering shop to make it whole. If the F-35 is a fifty year airplane, then its concurrency has fallen behind its fifty year objectives through its slow maturation into service. The F-22 can cover for F-35 as a wing man would in aerial combat. It can give much needed cover for F-35 maturation process working out "all" its kinks. A decision needs to be made in 2016 whether or not to restart the F-22 production. 

If or when any production starts, it will transfer a cost to the F-35 program through the number of its own units built. It was once conceived that 3,000 F-35's would be built during its life cycle. That unit number has dropped as cost on its development have increased. The pentagon and congress will have to come to terms soon how they will manage two projects and maintain effective levels for the F-35's development. 

The answer is simple, for every F-22 built, one F-35 will be struck from its production run. Since every F-22 built is very capable of replacing a one for one F-35 struck from production, the Air Force will maintain its over-all capability. If building only two hundred more F-22's, then there will be 200 less F-35 built over its program life. The only detrimental caveat is the cost of production ramp-up for the F-22 is very expensive. That costs may reduce total F-35 units even more by reducing its air wings size more than planned. 

If the US is planning a Generation 6 JSF, then it makes sense to cap the F-35 force to a significant number such as 1,800 having another two hundred F-22's at its flanks making the composite force of F-22's and F-35's equaling about 2,200 aircraft in the US Air Force.  Counting F-15, F-16 and FA-18 retirements, provides for smooth transition which can be accomplished during both production runs as the F-22 enhances the F-35 better than any of its predecessors are capable of complimenting. The F-22 is significantly better than any of the aforementioned Gen 4 aircraft that are aging rapidly. Making more F-22's is the bridge to the F-35 dominant role, it will play over the next 50 years. Perhaps in another 20 years there will be enough Trillions for adding additional Air Force aircraft for the world security objectives.

Since December 2011 The 737 Order Book Grows

Starting with SWA anchor order in December 2011 for 150 Max and ending with an order chart through April 2016. A summary view not including one hundred Vietjet 737's or eight Norwegian 737's, shows a robust Boeing order book for its single aisle first four months during this year. In fact, 2016 may surpass Airbus single aisle order count for the year. Knowing that Airbus prefers sandbagging order announcements for airshows, a steady pace has been established by Boeing for its single aisle offerings. The Neo-Max gap continues to shrink. The game change could occur, once the first Max delivers while falling into customer hands when comparing the Airbus A320 offering having a rough first delivery.

Single aisle by the numbers:

• Max Ordered since          2011-December: 3,090
• NG Ordered since            2011-December: 1,356
• Military Ordered since      2011-December:      79
• Other 737 Ordered since  2011-December:        8

                                                 

                                                  Total      4,532

Starting with January 2012, the time represents just over four years and 4 months or about 52 a month backlog build for the 737 family of aircraft. Dividing 4,532 by 52 months a straight line order rate can be established of 87 units ordered a month worldwide since the first Max order.

An Airbus snap shop since January 2016 shows a single aisle order pacing for only fourteen A320 NEO's. This falls well below Boeing's 2016 order pacing for the first four months as it totals 35 single aisle booked per month. Adding Boeing's May order count of 108 737 (to date) would increase its order pace up to 50 from 35 single aisle per month during 2016. 

Having a pace of 87 orders a month on average since 2012, the current 2016 total for Boeing of 249 is well below the last four years pace where the total units ordered should be about 348 units booked, if it were maintaining its four year pace.

Even though this is an off order year for both giants I would expect Boeing to outpace the single aisle production with its orders through December 2016.

VietJet Has Ordered Up With Boeing

Counting 100 single aisle Max 8-200C's as an opening headline is a considerable boost for the VietJet Airline and its airplane maker, Boeing, with its aspirations in the East Asia's market.

Vietnam’s VietJet to buy Boeing planes for $11.3bn 

Not wanting to go on about the deal it is apparent Boeing is busy in the region making significant headway with Vietnam's other commercial carrier, This order is for VietJet and not its own Vietnam Airlines, who currently and already has booked both the Boeing 787 (19) and the Airbus A350 (14) aircraft in a prior significant order. The region will explode with Boeing aircraft having the 100 Max 200C's on order. This is the same type Ryan Air (Ireland) ordered a few years back when it  required a stretch version of the 737 Max 8 and Boeing accommodated it with a 197 seat Max 8 with additional doors and a modified galley. Now VietJet’s order solidified the model production for Boeing.