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Wednesday, February 3, 2016

A Plausible Argument For MOM Exist

As often as mentioned about the Middle of the Market aircraft, Boeing's answer is founded in the A321's market success. Leaving one to wonder if Boeing made a big mistake by not edging into the middle of the market with a revamped 757 follow-on to the Max. Arguments remain on both sides of the board room table. Flightglobal has come out with its own interpretation on this matter with:


Flightglobal quotes Randy Tinseth, VP of Boeing Marketing, and pursues the notion Boeing is dropping the Middle of the market suppositions. The counter for its evidence and argument for dropping a 757 replacement from one side of the boardroom comes another argument. 

The 757 (MOM) replacement will fit into Boeing's new approach of doing business in the world's market. Any Boeing suppositions has rules in which to follow. 


  • Rule One: Eliminate heady announcements and wait until after an advance of actual start of a new program.
  • Rule Two: Announce a new program only when current program disruptions are minimal or have minimal impacts with Corporate Financial performance. 
  • Rule Three: Identify probable customers and ultimate Market potential.

"Boeing chief financial officer Greg Smith on 3 February drew an even darker veil around the company’s plans for a new product aimed at addressing a gap between the 737 Max 9 and the 787-8."

Therefore, the rules have been implemented for the 757-MOM project.

Three rules are a maximum for better point making even though there are probably ten rules in play from following biblical guidance.

Boeing has not closed enough programs nor has it amassed enough capital adding a new program on its strained resources. It wouldn't be appropriate for Boeing announcing an elliptical MOM at this time. In fact money for such a project has been identified nor have customers committed to such an Idea. Boeing does not have an anchor order up its sleeve for the MOM. If it did then rule three was achieved.

Rule two: has two programs in the crux of the "Air wars", MAX and the 777X, thus disqualifying the MOM from the boardroom discussion.

Rule one: The MOM is not a moonshot, but comes from using what Boeing hath wrought. All new sketches are permissible, however resources are engaged with concurrent programs of the Max and 777X. Once the Max is launched (delivered), then a consideration for the "MOM" will be forthcoming. A new program remains a lady in waiting, and will move forward once rules two and three can be sustained, at which time the all-important 777X has progressed into flight testing.
  
The Mom should be announced in 2018, as it will have a significant amount of paper development already accomplished, and all the resources identified for full implementation of the project without having any setbacks for slowing its announced arrival. 

Monday, February 1, 2016

737 Production Gap Take II


The Max is coming no doubt, but can Boeing sustain a high rate of NG delivery in the meantime? The article linked below opens multiple questions about the progress on the 737 Max program chugging forward. The Airbus A320 counterpart took 14 months to reach delivery fruition. Many variables are still in play, are more NG orders added before the Max can rollout? All things considered, and everything staying the same, the below article makes a salient point:  

Image result for 737 NG Production


Photo Credit: Airline Reporter


The Winging It take: About finding the center spot somewhere between one extreme from the other extreme. Flight Global has gone logical on this topic, and it makes it much more difficult to be contrarian to its assessment. An introduction of more orders finds reasonable middle ground whether if, Boeing can fill the gap for a continuous stream of 737 NG's until the Max arrives is at hand.

The NG has the year 2016 remaining for solving this problem of not having a continuous production flow and having no gaps. It is the same problem in the 777-300ER vs 777X problem. It saves Boeing on production costs if it can keep 777ER production going until the 777X is ready. 

Boeing will offer an attractive price for its 737 NG during 2016, as it attempts to close this obvious gap. It will only take about a couple hundred more NG orders during 2016 for achieving a production balance with both the 737 NG and then a 737 Max during 2017.


The Cause and Effect In The Changing Boeing Market

Market Airplane manufacturing/economics, are played by supply and demand factors from changing fleet requirements.  The euro market is a good example. Ryanair, Norwegian Air and a few others have pushed forward successful operating models containing Boeing aircraft. Lufthansa-Germanwings partnership may be forced to unload a plethora of Airbus used equipment as it spirals downward, since last year's catastrophic hull loss of its A320 type aircraft. This airways pond ripple effect is not completed.  Today's comment is for the cause and effect of inventory change affecting the market.

As Ryanair and Norwegian Air aspirations arise with its Boeing configurations, the Lufthansa and Germanwings consortium contemplates dumping used single aisle Airbus into the market place. This will have effect as airlines may buy the used aircraft instead of buying new Airbus Single aisle models. The cause of all this could be tied to the horrific deaths of its customers from a mentally unstable pilot flying the Germanwings aircraft Last Year.





The video of this horrible event shows the delicacy of staying in Business and bumping along in the market. No humor is implied, but the cause and the effect of this event does relate to having a business model surviving 4 $billion in claims on an airline, as it may require dumping its inventory and begin a-new someplace else.

Marketplace inventory is the crux of this matter, as Ryanair and Norwegian fortunes rise in Europe and as passengers flee an unknown risk, just as Pan Am 747 had experienced during its catastrophe fall at Lockerbie Scotland. The market did change from that result, Pan Am died! Whether a deranged pilot or deranged terrorist, the result affects the marketplace in the long term. The Germanwings horrendous event highlights a change in the market. Boeing is falling into its vacuum coming out of Northern Europe with its customers such as Ryanair.

As a result Europeans will get to know Boeing aircraft and may gain reassurance that flying is a safe proposition. The market braced after the 777-300ER Malaysia flight #370 disappears, and then again after Germanwings flight #9525. The marketplace adjusts after each event. Now a possible Germanwings market surge for available used single aisle, looms up against its maker producing new aircraft.

   

Sunday, January 31, 2016

January is in The Books With Boeing Highlights (2/1/2016 Update)


As of January 31, 2016 YTD Report. Data is provided by Boeing.com and All Things 787 Blog. If additions are made in February for January activity it will be updated at this Blog posting. A reliance exists on reporting by others, as Winging It has no internal resources with Boeing and uses its public information as it occurs and adds to this blog for your convenience. 

All orders are on deck for January for the Boeing report concerning sales. Boeing's Big Year is expecting more numbers than last year approaching 1,000. What is not shown are pending sales reported in the works during January but are not yet confirmed by Boeing's website.

SWA has 33-737 not yet booked but reported, it may have been for 2015, will check on the order. It remains for 2016 tally.

A deal is in the works which remains in the Middle East, as reported during January for a 100 single aisle order when competing with Airbus and Canada Producer, Bombardier offerings.

A deal was made converting 16 787-8s to 787-9's during January not yet posted by Boeing, but is indeed a deal made with a Gulf carrier.



Current Year Deliveries Through December 2015 A Boeing Report from Boeing.com

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737747767777787Total
Total 2015 Deliveries495181698135762

Customers737747767777787Total
AerCap24---1236
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines, P---3-3
Aeromexico----11
Air Algerie2----2
Air Berlin2----2
Air Canada----66
Air China253---28
Air China Cargo---3-3
Air France---2-2
Air India----33
Air New Zealand----33
AirBridgeCargo Airlines LLC-2---2
Alaska Airlines11----11
ALC21--8-29
All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd.3--31016
American Airlines18--21333
Atlas Air, Inc.-1---1
Avia Capital Leasing12----12
Avianca----33
Aviation Capital Group1----1
Avolon - Ireland7----7
Bank of Communications Leasing3----3
Biman Bangladesh Airlines2----2
BOC Aviation Pte. Ltd.4----4
British Airways----55
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)4--127
Cargolux Airlines-2---2
Cathay Pacific Airways---6-6
China Airlines---4-4
China Eastern28--5-33
China Southern Airlines---6-6
CIT Leasing Corporation4---26
Comair Limited2----2
COPA Airlines6----6
Delta Air Lines19----19
Donghai Airlines4----4
Dragon Aviation Leasing4----4
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise---1-1
EL AL Israel Airlines1----1
Emirates---9-9
Ethiopian Airlines3--2-5
Etihad Airways----44
EVA Air---1-1
FedEx--162-18
flydubai8----8
Garuda Indonesia---3-3
GECAS9--3-12
GOL Airlines6----6
Hainan Airlines11---213
Hebei Airlines Company, LTD1----1
Japan Airlines----66
Kenya Airways----33
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines---1-1
Korean Air-5-5111
LATAM Airlines Group----33
Lion Air30----30
Lufthansa Cargo---1-1
Lufthansa German Airlines-4---4
Luxair1----1
Nok Air2----2
Norwegian10---111
Okay Airways Company Limited3----3
Oman Air (SAOC)6---28
Pegasus Airlines2----2
PrivatAir----11
Qantas----44
Qatar Airways---4711
Republic of Iraq5----5
Royal Air Maroc----11
Ruili Airlines1----1
Ryanair24----24
Saudi Arabian Airlines---5-5
Sberbank Leasing2----2
Scoot Pte Ltd----1010
Shandong Airlines11----11
Shanghai Airlines5----5
Shenzhen Airlines10----10
Silk Way Airlines-1---1
SilkAir6----6
Singapore Airlines---4-4
SMBC Aviation Capital12----12
Southwest Airlines19----19
Sriwijaya Air2----2
SunExpress Airlines5----5
Thai Airways International---3-3
Timaero Ireland Limited4----4
TUI Travel PLC5---49
Turkish Airlines5--7-12
Unidentified Customer(s)9--4-13
United Airlines23---1134
United States Navy15----15
Vietnam Airlines----44
Virgin Atlantic Airways----77
Virgin Australia Airlines5----5
WestJet12----12
Xiamen Airlines16---420
Total 2015 Deliveries495181698135762



737747767777787Total


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The 787 report:

This section below  is dedicated to the 787 program only, and it shows 135 787's delivered in 2015 with seven more additions in January and one for February 1, 2016.