SR-71 Stories

On youtube, you can watch SR-71 videos of its exploits but sometimes hearing the real stories from it designers and pilots are more effective than a youtube video about the SR-71. I have written before on this blog about the SR-71. But memories stay firm. It out flew the North Vietnamese flying Telephone Poles. It caused Mig 25's to explode its engines. It caused a waste of missiles and aircraft flying out of Libya over the Mediterranean Sea. The story goes on and then you hear it again on youtube in a watered down version. It was America's last great jet that did not carry weapons.

The SR-71 was just plain fast. I am sure America has built its replacement whether, in satellite or winged aircraft, there is something American made replacing the SR-71. It retired some 20 years ago from the NASA program, marking its last paid gig? The news today is about what replaced it not what it can outfly. The mention about the SR-71 is bourne out of admiration for what slide rule and test tanks can do so long ago.

Here-here Blackbird and cheers with thanks

Boeing Could Now Breach 1,000 Airplane Orders in 2018 with Today's Announcement.

With Nigerian based Green Africa Airways ordering a 50-50 deal with Boeing (purchase -options), and another 30-20 for "flyadeal" of Saudi Arabia, Boeing has poised itself to fend off another furious Airbus late booking surge it usually uses to beat a Boeing order year. In all Boeing and its customers announced a $17.6 billion compiled order swing its way. Airbus will go all in sometime after the first of next year claiming orders for 2018.

Boeing has changed how it tallies its order book. It only announces order book data once a month sometime in the second week of each month. It was a weekly reporting last year. The December order number should come out around January 10, 2018. Airbus' habit is to report its order numbers in the first week of each month. Boeing for 2018, is playing the order game differently this year in hopes of topping Airbus for order bragging rights. 

With another firm 80, and 70 optioned 737 Max aircraft reported today, it would bring Boeing's net order book count to 770 firm orders. Just 230 units shy of 1,000 ordered for 2018. It is within reach if Boeing has several more mega orders in its hip pocket it has been working on.

It's Time To Link To Boeing's Financials

The end of the year is near and sometime in January 2019, you will be able to read how many more billion from the deferred balance sheet Boeing has erased by delivering almost 800 787's. Boeing has delivered 787units all time and 139 units YTD.

Boeing Accounting Considerations Link  Deferred Balance is $23 Billion, A 3qtr number

Boeing Financials

It is interesting to note YoY comparisons from 2017 totals to through 2018 performances as one could derive how much money has been written down for every 787 delivered. A number could be projected for when the deferred balance is extinguished in the 787 programs. That would be a rough number but it would give you a chance to estimate when. Currently, Boeing has delivered 139 of the 787 this year it may end up with 142 delivered. Then after the year closes and fourth quarter numbers for special accounting considerations are factored in for the 2018 period one can estimate how Boeing is doing making the 787 programs financially efficient.  

Boeing's Plain Order Book Could Go North of 1,000 in 2019

Boeing has booked a net of 690 airplane orders without the month of December counted until the first two weeks of 2019 reporting on its website. I would expect that number to come out by January 10, 2019. Therefore, 2019 could include a rapidly expanding order book if it announces the 797 at the Paris Airshow in a mid-summer dream. It could possibly book 400 797 orders alone thus making a 1,000 airplane order book a reasonable projection for Boeing's 2019 count.

The 737 Max program took a jolt when Lion Air crashed its eight-month-old 737-8 Max killing 189. The airline would like to blame Boeing for inadequate information provided on its aircraft having a new system without proper information. However, the jury is still out and it looks more like Lion Air had inadequate personnel from the ground up and it sent an unworthy aircraft to its doom with all people onboard dying. Lion Air has announced it will cancel its outstanding order for the Max program as a reaction to Boeing's position on the matter. No other carrier having the Max has experienced a similar catastrophe and it has not been reported to date that other airlines are having difficulty with its 737 Max aircraft to this extent. I expect more 737 Max orders if no conclusion is reached in the next few months concerning its crash. Lion Air is in trouble on this one and it may not be able to even order more aircraft without stiff financial help or confidence.

Embraer has now entered the Boeing family beyond the handshake level after signing papers and taking $4 billion from Boeing.  It can expand with a Boeing aspiration in 80/20 joint commercial airplane venture. Boeing has essentially bought a highly successful airplane building program for $4 billion and with it comes the engineers it needs to build the 797 sooner rather than later. the 7/80/7/7 venture gives Airbus a jab in the shorts regarding the small end of the airplane market. The Airbus Bombardier could end up being a boat anchor for Airbus as it absorbs the CS300 program. Its program health is sound for a quality Canadian product but very limited in the big scheme of aviation.
things.

Boeing is leasing 58 more/less acres at Paine field under the pretense of more airplane storage needed and a footnote where it could convert some of the space to manufacturing when needed. The lot lays just adjacent to the runway. A similar position found in Renton Washington at the 737 manufacturing plant. It's getting to feel a lot like Christmas for the 797 execs residing in an office building somewhere in Seattle, Wa.

Boeing is becoming a Juggernaut it always pretended to be growing up. 

Still Writing An Internet Book "Skalkaho" Enjoy it ,Will Take You To A Place You haven't Visited.

Here is a link staring with chapter 8.

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

It's up to chapter thirteen in the very rough draft form. You could say it is there and a lot of editing to go but that is phase two of writing. Taking a second crack with improving the storyline. Right now just done getting the story first is the goal. I post this here in Winging It because the most time is spent on aviation blogging. Writing a story is a break from airplanes.

Here other chapters from the beginning were you bookmark the chapters for your own referencing

Introduction To Skalkaho

Skalkaho Chapter 1: Blackleaf Camp

Skalkaho Chapter 2: Skalkaho Attacks

Skalkaho Chapter 3: Otaki Is Running Eagle

Skalkaho Chapter 4: Falling Running Eagle And Skalkaho Join As One

Skalkaho Chapter 5: The Rendezvous Breaks

Skalkaho Chapter 6: High School, 1970 and Vietnam

Skalkaho Chapter 7: Ecc. 3:6 A Time To Search

Skalkaho Chapter 8: A Jungle Pilgrimage

Skalkaho Chapter 9: The Beginning Of The End

SKalakaho Chapter 10: Meet Jeff Danbury

Chapter 11: Bangkok, Land of Plenty

12: Bangkok, A Way Home

13: The Plantation A Flexible Mold

If You Didn't See Newcom Coming Then You Weren't Watching Embraer

Boeing Has finished signing the joint venture project with Embraer were Boeing has an 80% share of Embraer, thus paving a way for the 797 programs as the sweetener. Boeing will combine efforts with the Brazilian aero giant for its unannounced launch of the 797. Expect a Paris airshow announcement with both Boeing and Embraer sharing the Airshow microphone when details will spill out over the show. Latin America will be a big customer for the 797 as Embraer engineers will come North with wifi and people in tow.

The die has been a cast, there is a Boeing NMA, Virginia, and Merry Christmas to boot.

Corporate headquarter will remain in Brazil for the sub 150 seat aircraft and Boeing will move jobs North from Embraer for the making of the 797. Don't lose sleep in Seattle, the 797 is primed for Everett, Wa. at the least. Boeing is counter punching Airbus from its recent acquisition of Bombardier. The air war just got intense on three continents Europe, North America, and South America. Delta Airlines is a big Bombardier customer since it just announced its purchase of small airport aircraft. However, Delta is a big fan of the NMA 797 concept and it may be its launch customer. Delta's business plan will accept both Embraer's and Bombardier's offerings.

An expectation in the industry has been set. Boeing is here to fight for its market with product coming for many corners of the earth. A new Boeing completion center in China has just been completed. Airbus has very little counter punching effect on Boeing at this time. Boeing is really being aggressive after Airbus has stolen the march on Boeing with the A-321 middle of its own market aircraft. Boeing will counter with the 797 hoping to block the Airbus A-330 at the top end of the middle and blocking any A-321's at the low end of the middle. So it will build a 230-270 seat airplane type using additional resources from Embraer but making it a fit for all Boeing aircraft classes. The Embraer type smaller 195 types will fly more like a Boeing layout in time but it will have what people like about the Embraer product.  

Now Financial Markets Are Saying 797

BOEING WILL LAUNCH ITS 797, A PLANE PASSENGERS WILL LOVE, SAY ANALYSTS

AirlinesRatings Photo

Cross section of Boeing’s 7J7 of 1989 is similar to what the 797 will look like

Call me: I'll be in Paris.

Lion Air's 737 Max Crash Hot Potato

Amongst the crash data lies some truth of why Lion Air's new 737 Max-8 crashed killing 189 trusting souls. The tragedy is real but who’s to blame? Or better yet who has the most to lose finding answers? 

Boeing would like Lion Air operational incompetence to headline the investigation. Lion Air would like Boeing to shoulder the blame and customers placing a claim against those with the deepest pockets. So the investigation remains in no-man’s land where Lion Air threatens to cancel its huge order with Boeing with many, many, more Max on the order cancelation line. 

The airplane flew successfully for several months before any indication there was a flaw or mishap was about to happen. It is also known that a prior flight had indicated a problem, but the crew was savvy enough to conduct work-arounds mitigating flight behavior problems before safely landing. Into the shop this 737 Max went. The maintenance crew, who were newly introduced to the advanced 737 replaced a sensor part. The flying crew were not fully aware of the problem or how to do a work-around as the prior crew had managed when it flew into the same behavior of rapid nose down descent as the later flight was directed by software or a system failure went it crashed.

Whose fault was it? That is the big multi-billion dollar question. The answer will come in time and much more time as if time will dilute the impact for either Boeing or Lion Air. By the way, Boeing will offer a further discount to Lion Air before it can cancel its order and Boeing delivers its backlogged order from Lion Air. But blame has to be assigned first and that's what time is for, assigning blame where no one is driven out of business over the loss of 189 passengers. 

The time is 2019, the blame goes to an unprinted a manual update and sloppy maintenance or training for the 737 Max no one else seems to chime in about having any problems. Unless a news report has been missed the Max keeps flying without any indication of a problem Lion Air experienced. The dangerous game is afoot. Assuming it was a one-off mishap, which there is blame to go around to everybody having some kind of consequential impact in the investigation. Lion Air will cancel its threat to cancel its Boeing order. Boeing will give Lion Air further discounts on its order when it pays out to injury family members who lost somebody on that flight. No one wants to go out of business and no one wants not to be compensated and finally no one wants to take the blame.

Let's just say the crashed Lion Air flight problem has been found in many levels throughout the aviation market chain and only the dead cannot feel the pain at this time.  I'm so sorry that, “to error is human" and bad things happen to everyone at some point! The biggest dog in this situation will pay with little fanfare demonstrated. It's a hot potato no one wants to handle.

Exostructure, an Aviation Dream

Building something without adequate support requires an exostructure for its existence. Much like the crab that has an exoskeleton wrapping its inerds with a hard exterior, a commercial  airplane must also also have a hardshell around it in order to survive. Boeing has just announced it will make available a 777X BBJ without a market. It lacks a exostructure or a true market or an order for it to exist. Therefore orders represent an "Exostructure".

Part of the Exo support is airports capable of landing this behemoth. The folding wings is a clue. The Exostructure are found in the wings in this case. The 777X BBJ can land at any selfrespecting larger airport. It hasn't been shown how short of a runway it can land on. That will be found out in testing during 2019. The timing may be right as the  US could be considering an Airforce-1 may be a 777X BBJ modified for presidential use. 

However, potential, is that softshell mebrane that wraps an idea in its infancy. That's what Boeing has with its 777X BBJ concept just launched. Any national president or Bill Gates type can order one for $3/4 of a billion with upgrades included. The hardshell is that "exo order" allows the jet to live. The 777X BBJ gestation period is not defined as long as Boeing builds the 777-8X or 777-9X.  An analyst will quip, "that's alot of oil pumped out of a lot sand. Let's go pound some sand"!

Boeing believes it has an exostructure to support a 777X BBJ. It may come by it with a half dozen orders. Super states are the likely suspects along with an oil kingdom in the mix. Boeing wouldn't launch an idea without some softshell interest. Having that thought, it bears consideration, who that might be. The the question arises, four engine security over two engine efficiency. Let's face it, any self-respecting super-power can stuff the frame with all the latest communication and counter measures. The 777X BBJ would have room for file cabinets but a thumb drive would work in someones pocket as a terabyte pretty much fits within anywhere under the size of a coffee table coaster.

A four engine consideration burns more fuel and can go pretty far. A two engine GE9X engine will take anyone to the other side of the world while going East or West and then landing at the same location. Possibly the US has reconsidered the 747-8i AF1 order with a 777-8X workup. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes another 3 years before a first delivery of the presidential 747-8i ("AF1") or a 777X BBJ is in the works. A new president could mean a new order in a deal making venture with Boeing. After-all if it is good enough for the president of the US, then its good enough for a Chinese trade mission. Enough two engine excursions around the world has proven two engines are as safe as four engines. In most cases better than four engines unless there is some sort catestrophic mishap were both types would not have survived.

A 777X BBJ can just sit and wait for a "EXO" order to hold this program together a little while longer.





   

777X Powers ON

Or as Aero Space Testing puts it,

"Boeing powers up first 777x test aircraft"

So goes the march towards its first flight. The 777X has become one gigantic poker hand for potential customers. In that some are holding its hand before making a play for ordering the giant. Will more 777X orders come forward for Boeing? Boeing thinks so, but to be perfectly clear, Boeing is depending more on "Seattle's Best Coffee" then a new 777X order at this time. It is nervous until this thing flies and bragging will continue making airlines flinch once more with a business plan for a jet holding 400+ passengers flying 7,600 miles. Could it go farther? Ah, yeah, but the airline would have to toss some passengers and its luggage for more fuel loaded, but the 777-8X may have already done that for the customer with its 350" seat configuration. Even if Boeing sends out a 290 seat aircraft it would approach 9,000 miles of travel comfortably and Qantas is ready to Punch on its Project Sunrise as soon as Boeing comes back after first test flight and says this beast is a modern marvel it can do better than what was promised!

"Power on", is a step in that scenario. Below is the 777-9X airframe thousands of hours before a push out for the cameras and Boeing employees crowding around the airframe on a clear sunny  Everett, Wa day in about sixty days. That's right, only 1,440 hours for Ave Geeks to fix their computers for the big roll-out ceremony having a cheesing Boeing PR person speaking about how many things were accomplished to make this roll-out possible. 

Courtesy of Aero Space Testing Published Photo of its Author

The power on step shown above, is to light up all electrical systems found on the aircraft as if an engine were hung on the wing and supplying its power. Do all the electrical components work as entended? This won't be the last  time Boeing will light-up. Every time something is added, even the paint. an eltrical power on test will occur. The 777X won't fly until everything works and works over and over again. Power cycling this airplane is much like your home computer. Every time it power cycles it resets electronics or it confirms the wiring remains solid as intended. The first power-on checks for smoke, fire and burnoutof everything electrical as that is a common step for all new 777-300ER's coming off the production line. However, this a completly new design and the this airplane requires the power tests that are analysed and recorded for further study. Once those checks are completed it may fly.

In the mean time, other activitie from now until the middle of Frebruary 2019, Boeing will install the enterior components including work stations and corresponding testing equipment and its corresponding seats. First flight is for systems checks and over-all flight characteristics before the road of daily flying occurs for its year long testing period. Sixty days is not far off.  

Data Fusion The F-35's Real Weapon.

ALIS was the big data kid on the block, Then there was mission data and finally adversarial data. Eventually, the repetition of take-offs and landings using military weapon loads had to be factored in. 

A system in secret was developed called " C-3". This fusion of data had to tell the F-35 program players what part and what mission the F-35 is assigned. Defense One covers this topic. C-3 is programming for AI and predictive modeling well beyond a visual examination or situational awareness. Whether looking at a part or going against the unknown, it is framed in the architecture of C-3. It can and will tell the humans surrounding the F-35 its next move before it flies. Normally it takes months or even a year to render a solution from data for everything from bolts to washers. Now the C-3 company says it can do in a month instead of months. The ultimate goal would be under 24 hours in a conflict. It's a matter of time for this to happen.

• BY PATRICK TUCKERTECHNOLOGY EDITOR

 California company is looking to accelerate the Defense Department’s embrace of artificial intelligence, starting with some of its most important aircraft.

C-3 will or could predict what part is ready for change out or what missile should be loaded for a mission, depending on what the predictive C-3 modeling reveals. It is simply the added value of the flying F-35 computer. In a perfect F-35 world it seeks optimal solutions for real-time battle situation heading the F-35 in a direction on the ground as well as in the air for optimal results.

The example is a mission assignment going to "X" and taking out target "Y" with the most proficient "Z" fully operational. The Lightning II is about to be militarized with the C-3 signature of supercomputing on-board or located from somewhere in California in a big "underground" building. The F-35  gives the F-35, oversight, for its every move from a computer to the team who will support its mission and further. It is too secret for this kid to know.

Simply put, it's smarter than a fifth grader type of execution. The adversary cannot predict what will happen when its trigger is pulled and the F-35 responds. The C-3 system moves the goals post as weapons are changed or become available while internalizing F-35 capability against adversarial systems and placements. A strike comes with an "I didn't see that coming" outcome. The fighter pilot climbs in and responds with its resources for the F-35 and its supporting players. 

Boeing Says,"Meat of the Market"

It's has taken a while, but I think I know and I get it. The long thin routes are not where the money is found but its the best advertising focal point money can buy. The other philosophy is for passenger demand. Boeing has built two aircraft for an answer. One for passenger density, the other for distance traveled. The 777-8X mashes miles, not passengers and the 777-9X is the inverse of that proposition. Therefore as the Australian Aviation has published about "the resurgence of the 777-8X order book".

Does it make sense to haul 250 of your "best" friends for eighteen hours in a tube? How about 400+ friends going 7,000 miles for 16 hours. Boeing has explored the market and came up with the 777-9X and 777-8X configuration destined for 2020-2022 entry into service respectively. So the 777-8X sales surge is not expected until later as its 777-300ER's are of age to retire.

The 777-9X, the Boeing advertising giant, will come out in 2020, as the first lever for retiring the A380 completely according to data and customer preferences. The A-380 is a white elephant that cost Airbus more than its pride. Then the true market crusher arrives, the 777-8X. It will do more with less, an "old" industrial buzzword from the millennial generation. The do more with less crowd is buying the airline tickets today. They want comfort and space and not necessarily 18 hrs of flight time, but it wants Fiji islands instead, from anywhere in North America. Sounds like a millennial concept to me! Or Boeing centric ner-do-wells prefer the 777-8X for another gap filler.

Flying far and stuffing the tube is an Airbus dream. The A-380 was that bridge which became too far from its profit engine. Stockholders for Airbus will scramble when the NEW 777-X's comes forward. Airbus sycophants will just have to buy the A-350-1000's as its traditions require. The 777-8X is a design which only a computer data program can churn out when finding the meat of the market. 

The efficiency graph line starts high at take-off and then downward for about 5,000 miles reaching a point every mile flown at this point is at its highest efficiency and lowest costs and then at 6,000 miles it slightly nudges upwards until it runs out of the market. The Caveat is most seats are filled because it can satisfy the meatier part of the market. It's easier to fill 350 seats in the densest part of the market than 400 seats going halfway around the world from point A-B. The world's half is about 18 hrs one way or another and an airplane doesn't need to travel farther than its half. This is where the airline industry is today. 

However, the other data says 95% of the market lies in the 777-8X's reach. That sounds pretty meaty to me. Boeing algorithms say so too. Hence, the 777-8X pops out on the graph somewhere between LA and Tokyo. The low flatten line of efficiency falls within the "Middle of the Meat". Most restaurants call it Prime Rib on the menu. Boeing calls it the 777-8X. Who wants to fly west going 8,000 miles to Australia and who wants to fly east going 8,000 miles to Australia. Now you see how graphs can work. Either way, the 777-8X fills that market. Who wants a bigger load (777-9X) flying west to Australia from LA and who wants a bigger load flying East to Australia from New York? Gosh, this is getting serious and airlines remain behind to figure this out.

Even though the 777-9X has a bloated order book compared with the 777-8X. Emirates, a big one airline, is the reason. It has ordered 156 777-9X and is the World's largest A-380's holder which is destined to a boneyard closest to Tucson, AZ.  

Therefore, the Boeing graph chart has identified aviation's sweet spot. Twelve hours anywhere on a 777-9X and 14 hours everywhere on a 777-8X. More 777-8X sales are on the way once the first tests of the 777-9X succeed.

The Bloodless War

The US and the Eastern spheres are fighting a bloodless war for the high ground. Currently, the S-400 missile deal with Turkey and Russia is the currently discussed battlefield. Winner takes or Keeps F-35 secrets. The loser may have spent hundreds of billions on an F-35 or the other could be rendered defenseless in a real shooting war. Turkey a NATO member raised the white flag on behalf of its partnering alliance members when buying the S-400 missiles. The purchase is perceived as a pilot hole into NATO defensives and those who purchased the Lockheed F-35 fighter.

When Russia delivers its first group of S-400 missiles the F-35 will disappear from Turkey. Russia has taken round one without shedding blood. The US will have to find other sources for F-35 Turkish made parts. A Big inconvenience which slows the F-35 development. The pattern has been set as the Chink in the F-35 program plan has been discovered.

In order to sell so many F-35’s to partner nations, the US dangled a piece of the F-35 development in front of every participating member core group. Turkey was the most vulnerable since it has ordered 100 F-35’s with lucrative participation into the program. Some nations will not be able to buy the F-35 on a quid pro quo basis. Nations like Australia do but are unlikely to buckle under to Russia’s enticing chess move selling S-400 to anybody with an F-35 position. The battle is afoot.   The US is fighting back by falling on its foolish sward it had made when it sold Turkey 100 F-35’s and gave Turkey a prominent position as a contributing “build member” for the same 5^th generation Joint Strike Fighter jet.

The US is seeking time by stalling the process while it builds an infrastructure replacing Turkey’s role as a customer and an F-35 resource. The US is telling Turkey to go ahead and take those S-400 missiles since you needed them so bad and we will not ship you “our” F-35. That’s right “Our”. The core partners are surrogate holders for the defense of the Western hemisphere. Russia is a lead player for the Eastern Idea-ology. Turkey lies wedged between the two Ideals and has now chosen the S-400 giving Russia the tap hole into the F-35. China will have to steal the rest of that technology.

At this time no other F-35 customer looks to play with Russia for F-35 secrets. The US chose an ill-advised position to go quid pro quo with its partners on this program development. Meaning, if you buy the F-35 we will give you a piece of the development and sustainment action. The other shoe is now dropping as a retraction of source F-35 participation in the program. The US has already found replacement resources for the building of the F-35 away from Turkey moving to participants closer to home. They have spent the last year getting this done. Even if Turkey cancels the S-400 Russian order for receiving its ordered 100 F-35’s it’s too late for them to play on the US F-35. It is a done deal, Turkey is out. 

A replacement plan is already progressing.

However, the US can only implode the program so far but there are fewer options for Russia. Turkey was its main players and it is a failing play if the US is resolved to cut Turkey out. 

The possibility is strong, the US has already won the bloodless battle against the S-400. If it’s rolled out for firing, the system will be decommissioned by multiple means not yet published at this time. The S-400 maybe be a dead duck already and Turkey makes a prideful blunder.

The line in the sand starts at Ankara, Turkey.

Russia loses the battle deal but it doesn’t stop them from trying to penetrate the F-35 systems. The F-35 must be really awesome.

Are We There Yet, The Rivian Arrives

Or according to Fox news, the children in the back says I'm only good for 400 miles and we need to play crowd is turned loose.

The Rivian is an electric SUV/Truck

The Culture of Demand is about to replace the internal combustion engine, read about this new modern culture busting electric conveyance. It will be a boon for "convenience gasoline markets" such as Maverick stores across the Northwest region. Imagine after 400 miles you pull in to a charging stall as the family has time to unload, buy stuff, and eat. The power charging may cost $50 but the stuff the family indulges on could easily run to $100 with a gross profit dollars running at 50% of retail sales. A true convenience store dream. Gasoline pumping takes to little time and then the money moves down the road in under 10 minutes. But wait, what about a half hour charge? The store has time to fleech customers from pizza to jerky. The Slurpee is revived!

The charging network is a question? Will Tesla merge with Rivian on this topic. If so the culture may change to electric and half hour charging over the next two years, The merge will need to join with a convenience store chain to make the transition before others will join the electric rush. I am sure Big Oil is keeping its options open for super fueling stations on this one.

The culture will change as the interface catches up with the electric motor popularity.

NMA 797 Is A Program Role Reversal From The 787 Program.

Typically, an aircraft manufacturer announces a new airplane and then puts all the build elements together in some kind of haphazard way. Please refer to the 787 programs when a shell of a 787 was rolled out on 7-7-2007 to a skeptical public. It took Boeing five more years to deliver its first customer's 787 in the fall of 2012. Much criticism was mentioned when Boeing couldn't deliver what it seems to promise from the announcement of the program in 2004.

Let's jump to 2018 with so many rumors flying about for an impending announcement for a middle of the market 797 aircraft. The pundits are having a tough time getting its arms around when Boeing will announce its NMA aircraft. All have concluded a 797 should deliver during 2025. Boeing has a "meh" attitude for the concept as it continues to fall back on its "we are in a study phase" excuse. 

However, this site has long held Boeing wants to build the 797 airplanes first using proven design compared with all its years tinkering within the 787 programs as Airbus watched planned and implemented its A-350 during the longtime Boeing tinkered. This is a role reversal of how it handled its 787 programs back through 2004-2012.

The 797 should be known more of an electronic airplane of proven technology than a paper dream one like the 787. Computer-aided design has taken 787 lessons learned and infused onto a 797 CAD computer. Boeing's lame statement,  "we're in a study process" is also doublespeak for assembling an NMA from its supplier partners through the production facility environment before announcing a program launch. 

Did I mention launch customers? Try squeezing Delta, United and American airlines for launch customer answers for this 797 launch. Once Boeing decides to launch this concept, it will be announced after the 777X flies its last few test flights. The time gap will allow Boeing to build an NMA from 2021 to its first delivery during 2025. The announcement for this venture will come mid-2019 at an airshow near Paris. 

The Parisian slap in the Airbus face will be the order numbers generated during the announcement of the NMA 797. No one will be shocked by the announcement but the order scope could be immense and that may cause some recitation work being done in the Airbus Pavillion.

Note Worthy 777X Day

The first flying test 777X finished its initial body join today as the photo below shows.



I would assume wire connectivity is going on inside and then installing its equipment comes next. To anyone watching the process you can imagine all parts and equipment for this first flying example are stored in warehouse bins. It is also noteworthy, a new assembly process for the 777X was implemented during this occasion and will continue until a run to the paint shop occurs. One of the interesting steps is: as equipment is added, it will be tested when power is applied. Then it will be tested again once the above ship is fully loaded and engine simulation of power is applied. It will be completely tested again once the engines are a fixed to the wings and fired up for its first low engine power run. So forth and so forth goes the testing before its first test flight during 2019.

There are two more coming down the 777X assembly hall for 2019 flight testing. A good way to imagine the process is if something is installed it be tested before any next step of the assembled aircraft. The "new build process" includes a slimming of the work process through the modular assembly and CAD techniques pioneered during the 787 and Max programs. The area shown at the lower bottom of this photo suggests space is ready for a row of engineering "cubes" which will be added before Christmas and will become operational for the next several frames coming behind this one. Expect to see tables, monitors and engineers at the workstations as mechanics will spend time "inside this aircraft" reading schematics and assembling its equipment with appropriate newly formed tools. The test articles will take more time to assemble as systems and equipment are installed for the first time. The process should include preliminary lab time where Boeing employees practice how the plane will assemble on the floor.

The 777X is almost ready for game time as the practice session has become a reality on the assembly floor. Every day forward from this point is a direct contribution to first flight as all other steps in its creation has been successfully accomplished. The GE9X engine has processed its separate testing regimen. The indicators published to date exceeds engine expectation progress for the GE9X engines. 787 technology is an already proven item which needs little time to conform to the 777X layout and its size. A "technology commonality" has already been proven during the Max program and should translate well to the 777X program. All-in-all, the above photo demonstrates Boeing is well within its developmental progress as it's no longer a "paper airplane", but the real deal coming down the ramp in the next 90 days for possibly its first flight by end of March 2019.  

The Right Hammer,787-10

Building a home may take a half dozen different hammers. One for finish nails (molding), or one for framing not to mention drywalling and roofing activity. The hammer types keeping mounting per specialty or function. A big framing hammer comes in as a 16oz concussion on a nail head. Or also known as one pound the world around. There are 2d to 40d nails and varying classes of nail types within that range counting roofing, drywall, and finishing requiring different hammer types as well. This brings us to airplanes.

The two mega manufacturers have tried to cover nail use or passengers with different hammers types or airplane models. The 16d nail could be called the 787-9 for framing a business together. So what is a 787-10, it's a 20d nail or even a 16d nail for most routes airlines travel. A 16oz hammer could do in either but becomes more tedious if used on a 20d nail as would an 8oz hammer on a 16d nail pounding all day. Enough of nails and hammer matching and back to airplanes.

The 787-10 could be the hammer used all day accepting 300+ passengers (nails) while going 6,000 plus miles or in the center of the aviation market. Air New Zealand is weighing an order for its fleet renewal and for fleet expansion. The 787-10 is on the watch list for a decision by the end of this year. If it goes with Airbus A-350 it will be a complete fleet renewal with Airbus. If it goes with Boeing it will expand its Boeing types into different models down the road such as 787-10's or 777X's.

Hill AFB Does a Mass F-35 Launch

What this means?:

1. Hill AFB Utah has 35 of its intended 78 F-35 already active on its flight line.
2. Going to war against the US is a very bad idea.
3. Hill AFB can launch a wartime quantity in eleven minutes.
4. Hill AFB F-35's sent 12 to the Orient for a year and then 12 came back.
5. There are about $3.5 billion aircraft in one photo.
6. More F-35 aircraft in one Utah AFB based photo than any other nation has at this time.
7. The USAF is ready for the next war since there another 200+ F-35's flying in the US.
8. It takes a very large village like 1,700 personnel to fly the 388th Air Wing's F-35s.
9. The Marines have more F-35B than Hill's AFB's 35 units.
10. Velociraptor is Marine Jargon for the 24-0 kill ratio.

Hill AFB Utah 35 Velociraptors F-35A Mass Exercise 11-18-2018

What Downed The 737 Max 8?

There are several theories floated by the press that the automated leveling electronics failed to fly the 737 Max at the appropriate elevation. Soon after take-off, this Lion Air Max 737 airplane crashed presumed to kill all on board with 189 passengers and crew. The various accident review boards quickly encircled electronic parts that could cause a catastrophic flight level change for which the pilots could not overcome. The airplane flew into the sea, killing everyone. The plane's body has not been located indicating a nose dive with a 600 mile an hour entry into a cement-like ocean.

This may not even be the real cause but it is a start and may lead to the real reason the brand new 737 failed to fly as designed. Boeing will try to replicate its faults in the lab. It will use its Max systems set up for all planes currently flying to see if it can duplicate an errant condition with all parts used in flying at a level course. Pilots usually take-off and land for about several minutes at each end of the flight. They are also responsible for making good judgment calls for unhooking automated flying systems as extraordinary flying conditions exists. The pilot must fly the plane under those rules and judgments about the aircraft.

Not knowing the answer, to what went wrong on this flight, makes the case a clear mystery even for the professional observer. The pilots could not control the aircraft with the state the equipment was in during its last minutes. The black box information will show the pilot was trying to save the airplane. The second box when found should complete what happened from the human and mechanical side of the accident. The real topic is a brave new world type of conjecture.

The airplane automation is good or in some cases a great addition to flying but atrophying pilot abilities back to the 20th century. The plane flies itself and pilots are needed to watch as flying caretakers. When something breaks, the human is locked out of the solution because so many interdependent systems are overwhelmed, it too loses additional functionality on the aircraft for which the pilot cannot intercede with its automated systems fast enough. Diagnosing the problem of a million parts going bad takes too long and can lead to miscorrecting the problem and cause a further catastrophe. Has aviation reached a new vulnerability?

The pilot is just a monitor and not the craftsman at the controls. If a computer chip has a weakness in its circuitry, eventually one day it will mishap during mid-flight where systems may not let those monitors "in" to do the job needed. I will be interested in the final summary report on this crash as it will explain how far technology has taken aviation away from humans while placing us in the hands of electronic controls and computers. 

What downed the 737 Max? It wasn't the pilot!

Aviation's Venn Diagram Is A Boeing Dream

Long ago there were Venn diagrams, maybe as far back as a sophomore in the 1968 high school geometry class. Anyways, the diagram might have a circle for the A-380 and its seat and range graphic. It may have a 787 near the center of the diagram for its ultimate plotting. 

Below is a very accurate detail of how the Venn diagram works for an aviation aficionado. Boeing has "its hand in the air" with its 787 analysis and Airbus has put everyone on the floor with its A-380 big dream. Obviously, Airbus doesn't read its own Venn diagrams and is paying for it at this time as the A-380 and other of its wide-bodied aircraft look for "I'm not asking twice" zonal thinking.

Boeing 787 Program Venn Diagram

Boeing will continue to expand its lead order over Airbus with its "hands in the air" approach. "Are you with me?" What is missing from Airbus is its asking price for the A-350 and A-380 models. Boeing has undercut the price market with its offering. The reason the 777X has stalled is that the 777X is in the "DJ's" realm on the chart.  The price is not right and the distance too thin for a reconfiguration of the marketplace. The final Venn diagram tells Boeing, 

"if you don't listen to me there will be severe consequences!" 

Boeing will sell more 777X after it enters the market because it reaches and it settles into the blank spaces of "put your hands in the air", near the center, and on either side of the 787 pole position in this diagram.

An Every Member Canvass

An old school term for going around a membership and seeing whose in. In Boeing's case, the club includes those who are currently flying firmed up or delivered 787s from prior orders. The importance of this "Club" has spurred Boeing to make a 14 month 787 production goal with its suppliers and customers. It has or will have the orders to support this commitment. The case in point is United has now firmed up another nine 787-9 on Boeing's books. By the end of this year, more orders will be added. How many is pure conjecture but any indication of this order goal is that another 50 orders remain to be gleaned from the marketplace during 2018?

I haven't forgotten the 40 hanging orders for the 787-10 "committed" by Emirates during this year but has not yet firmed. That number could be part of Boeing's sales canvass of how many 787's its current customers are signaling as an eventual "Firm" order. 

In a perspective view, Boeing could book 170 787's during 2018. That would be a pinnacle year when no new Boeing 787 model types were introduced and only current models were ordered. This also would be "a great disappointment" for Airbus as Boeing's customers are reloading the order gun with Boeing's bullet-nosed 787's. Whatever is not booked this year could flow into next year thus making the decision to increase 787 production to 14 a month a logical decision. Boeing then needed to ramp up production through its supplier base giving it a long enough lead time for its supplier base.

Only 644 units of the 787 remain to be delivered at this time and a healthy order year makes the 14 a month goal possible. Boeing has made its customer canvass with those already held 787's in its respective fleets. So Boeing has a ballpark number of how many 787's it will need over the next five years for satisfying its customer's needs. A 14 a month pace times 60 months or five years would require 840 unit backlog of 787's where now it only has 644 units yet to be built. 

Boeing needs another 196 787's ordered over the next five years and that "canvass" plus committed orders suggest it has met that objective easily. Taking this assumption further, it also spills into the deferred costs reduction of its $24 Billion to go from about $30 Billion initially. The unit analysis of 1398 total 787's booked will grow to 1594 if Boeing receives another 196 orders during the next 60 months. That is achievable and Boeing already knows what it can do over the next five years driving the deferred cost to zero long before the fifth year arrives.

Jon Ostrower Reports

A recent edition of "The Air Current" by Jon Ostrower reveals a 797 snippet. The 797 is waiting on its own technology.

·      Black Diamond is its code word:

·      Northrup is Building the B-21

·      Boeing remains angry over the awarding

·      The 797 will be an OPUS of Boeing technology

The F-35 Is The Test bed For The 22nd Century

The often maligned F-35 for its glitches is finally getting some fantastic press when it can now connect to tons and tons, by weight, in a weapons bay on an LHA or LHD navy ship. A system link allows communication from the F-35 to the fleet's ships. The intended ship becomes an F-35 by extension without revealing where the actual F-35 is located as it fires its own missiles at any enemy platform found by the F-35. The next 70 years of the F-35 usefulness is providing a test bed for new naval weapons systems weighing more than the F-35 itself.

Why is that important? A new terminology can be used for modern warfare. In this case, it is transferability. The F-35 becomes a sub-satellite or a sub orbiting eye above the battle space deployed specifically in a spot to render firepower onto an enemy over two-thirds of the planet containing water. Furthermore, the F-35A  covers the remaining land mass issuing information to tanks, missiles, and bunkers. By the year 2100, a supersonic drone will do more than what the F-35 can do today! But the F-35 will have tested all the drones new systems. 

There is a war window for adversaries, which is today! The time element is beating any incursion from abroad. Simply, "others" won't be able to keep up with the F-35 capability as its plug and play era of advanced electronic and offensive capability for the F-35 is ahead of everything else. Once it is loaded into the F-35 in that aforementioned plug and play environment it can advance beyond what "others" have available. 

In the year 2100 its hard to imagine what the state of war will become but it should include autonomous warfare for the destruction of everything that threatens. The F-35 becomes that testbed for autonomous warfare as new systems and weapons are plugged in and deployed according to changes within the battlespace. There is a future for laser warfare but something may replace it by the year 2100. It may be a particle beam shot at a system. Or an EMP shot coming from a drone's power system. The F-35 engine has immense power today but in seventy years, two power systems may exist on a super drone. One for motive power and one for weapon capability. But all in a smaller package than today's examples.

Therefore the bridge to the future will include another incremental step in the next thirty years. It will include a batch of capability items from space, air or ground. In the more traditional mindset, the modern airforce will have the evasive flying capability or greater stealth. An F-60 or so, name, may come to the forefront. It should be semi-autonomous where a human may be present in airspace directing the slave drones to its point of attack. A stepping stone for those who will not let the human out of a tangible battle chain. The "guy" in the basement is fighting, but a "guy" in the sky will be supervising the fight.

The F-35 will pave the way for all of what can be imagined for weapons systems and flying capability, joining with everything offensive or defensive.

Down To A Fuel Tube Problem, The F-35 Has A Final Approach

When the F-35B crashed in Florida weeks ago, the F-35 program may have reached a milestone. Things that go wrong for a military aircraft takes years of mishap to determine what can go wrong. The F-35's build evolution may have left its R&D initial build hanger and moved into an operational hanger. Faulty fuel tubes have been deemed as the culprit for the first crash of an F-35, an F-35B to be exact. It is the most complex of three F-35's types offered because of its lift fans and other sundry things that support this avionic marvel.

Crashing and burning $150 million in a minute or less because of a fuel tube failure, is not what is ever desired, but having reached this milestone indicates the problems for the program may have approached the nuts and bolts stage rather than its developmental computer stage. It's not saying software and hardware still have some vetting to do and will always having development going on. In fact, the jet is expected to be a frontline fighter for the next 50 years and the R&D phase will chase it into retirement like all self-respecting supersonic fighters have done in the past.

Perhaps the F-35 reached its program maturity when its fuel tubes failed on one F-35B. Kind of like a hydraulic line leaking out on a backhoe. Remember this flying supercomputer has parts surrounding it in order to mechanically fly. But it's progressing into its promise on being the very next best JSF nobody else has in its inventory, except for a few our allied "friends" who have emersed themselves into the F-35 culture.

I wondered why it only flew at a speed of Mach 1.6 when for the last fifty years fighter jets and even some bombers fly faster than Mach 1.6. Then it dawned on me there is a preponderance of dependency on that "supercomputer" to do the work instead of doing elite airshow stunts like Russia and China prefer to do. After-all stunts impress its masses. War is not about stunts it's about winning and the US is flying its supercomputer against aerobatic displays. The F-35 isn't about 20th-century dog-fighting as found in the movie "Top Gun".

However, it is about fighting at the speed of light on a circuit board or in a computer chip. That is the theory in a nutshell.

In fact, the aviation weapons progression has not kept up with the F-35 task and purpose. It doesn't have long enough range of missiles, It doesn't hold enough weapons in its stealthy bays. It has too few bullets onboard making the A-10 the ultimate tank killer. However, the F-35 can do so much more from 50,000 feet than at 50 feet. It's survivable from that distance and those on the ground are not without the F-35, as it "directs" tons of various weapons on to targets in a "fixed" battle space. Fixed could be defined as moving slower than a hundred miles per hour going across the land. That pesky little flying computer strikes again firing weapons within a diverse battle space using others artillery, rockets and directing forces to hidden adversarial targets. It can also link ships, submarines and other aircraft in its battle plan, slaving Mach 2+ to its purposes from special built speed aircraft delivering its own payloads with precision. So Mach 1.6 is about right after-all.

The coach on aviation's bench isn't needed as a Wide receiver or quarterback in this metaphor, it just has to game plan better than the opposition who doesn't have a coach capable of doing so many things in from the battle sidelines. 

Its true weapon is that its upgradeble as new inventions of war emerge. The F-35 needs a pilot to bring the speed of light to the battle space in an up close and personal manner. Perhaps this is a stepping stone for a satellite battle management!

Airbus Attacks The Flank Of Boeing In China

Xiamen Airlines a subsidiary of China Southern is in some talks with Airbus. Those talks would include its NEO family of single-aisle aircraft including the A321NEO. Boeing is on the sideline with only its defense on the field. This is a typical American football battle. However, even defense can turn the ball over with a "pick 6". The bigger issue becomes Boeing's NMA play.  Boeing can't run it unless it's on offense. Boeing is still in the huddle on this matter. The Chinese Goose gives Boeing its golden egg or so goes the proverb in some sort of quote.

The 797 could be squeezed out on an Airbus play with a Chinese airline. Will this Xiamen attempt score the 797 announcement? The answer could come as soon as Paris 2019. If Xiamen holds back on the Airbus advance, then a 797 is on the horizon at the next big airshow it would seem. Boeing can only wait so long until future orders begin to erode away before an NMA announcement is even made, The pressure is on by Airbus to force Boeing's hand into an incomplete move for its next big thing. It's a game of chicken with high stakes on the table.

The Winging IT mantra was the NMA was a foregone conclusion several years back. 

Boeing exclaimed! 

"Boeing needs more time, more study for a business case and now this from Airbus."

A full assault in China on one of Boeing's best customers. What will Airbus flush out of a Boeing hiding place with its play in the Chinese marketplace? The question itself indicates Airbus has a quick and dirty A321NEO plan shoring up against the Boeing 797 move. It will try to diminish any Boeing NMA move with an enhanced A320NEO order book and its Xiamen talks are the first example of the Airbus plans.

Perhaps, Boeing all along wanted to see what card Airbus was to lay down first when Boeing was perched to announce a new program. Airbus showed its hand and now more Boeing people are discussing a reaction with action. It was one of those 50 things we can do if Airbus does this or that. Well, Airbus has gone to Xiamen with big plans. An NMA launch customer position for Xiamen is up in the air with a fresh offer from Airbus. 

Sherlock Holmes would say, "the games afoot!"

The Airbus card has been flip and the Boeing response is awaiting a slap. Then Airbus will have to go ahead and announce a fully enhanced single-aisle NEO to square off against a 797. Airbus is calling BS on Boeing with this overture played for Xiamen. Boeing so far doesn't even indicate what it will make until Airbus plays its cards. A boot will drop at the next Paris Airshow.