The First 777X Is Ready To Fold, Bend, and Mutilate With Post Office Precision

The time has arrived for the 777X. Sans engines it will go to a frame or some kind of jig to hydraulically bend wings back and forth. Stress the body and strike the concept to see if it will break. Engineers have calculated using computers and algorithms designing and building this copy. The time has come to see if theory beats real stresses imposed on its frame. The process will include those who know the 777X goals and performance metrics. Bending and folding may fracture some parts making a part removal, and concept changes a process of betterment. A replacement part improved will be reinstalled and another fold or bend will occur within the framework including wings.

First, 777X won't fly, but it will take a "bullet" for others that follow

This whole process will take about a year and the hopeful result will be an airframe ready for engines, fuel, and systems. The first flight tests imposed on the frame. will occur late 2019 long after the conceptual stress tests are complete and solutions for faulty designs are replaced and then succeed. Boeing will be looking at airframe duration or longevity while in service. Boeing wants to know the first flight is a winner and it can go further once over-loaded and flown and landed. The whole process is not new at this point. Boeing has gone through this many times with the Max family,787 family and all airplanes it has ever built. Yes, the folding portion of the wing will continue to test through the first stage. It's kind of the main public show during this build process. The other stuff is the immense plastic wing and new features like large windows will be fully vetted. 

Once the engines come on, a whole new series of tests will occur with its systems. The landing gear will be tested alongside the fold bend and mutilate phase of its body and wings. It won't take long to find out about the landing gear attached to its frame. Boeing has been at that for decades and the fit and function are what's at stake.

America May Build A Super "D" Disrupter.

Destroyer-Cruiser but what about new stuff in the hull. Even hull design supersedes the DDG1000 class of destroyer. The Navy is racking its brains for coming up with a hull, housing all those new toys. First of all a brief history of the fighting surface ship.

There was a battleship, then a smaller cruiser after which the fleet depended upon a destroyer also known as a fleet escort ship in a carrier flotilla. During the last twenty years, a techno blitz formed the DDG 1000 (Destroyer) for replacing the DDG51 series of Arleigh-Burkes. Now the Navy has made a reversal by dropping the DDG1000's to just three ships instead of dozens of its types replacing the DDG51's from the 20th-century design.  However, costs have driven the DDG1000 out to sea and made the Arleigh Burke flight III the new kid on the dock.

The DDG 1000 has become a weapon and systems lab. Its tumblehome hull works as a stealth enhancer and its important weapons systems unproven thus making it a "lab" of sorts for anything next! A class of ship has yet been designed. Not a destroyer or cruiser but something in between those types. Hence the name "Goldilocks Disrupter".

A disrupter would be between a cruiser and the tonnage of a Zumwalt or about 9,000+ up to 15,000 tons. A ship length would extend beyond 500-600 feet. Not quite a destroyer at the lower end or a Zumwalt at the upper end but heavy enough for containing serious weaponry or defensive systems not yet installed on either the Zumwalt or Arleigh-Burke. The hull design is what's in the debate. It won't be tumblehome or Burkish in function but will have stealthy-like angles, thus making its real profile indistinguishable for absolute detection. Hence, the sticking point on how to build the hull.  

So look for a 12,000-ton Disrupter-class for about 30 hulls coming to a shipyard near Bath, Maine. This ship will embody the functionality of the long worked Arleigh-Burke and the electronic capability of the Zumwalt. It will have a Laser gun, Missiles, and AESA-6. Its main gun will shoot 60 miles or so because by the time the first hull will be built a gun fitting the needs of both a cruiser and a destroyer is completed. It will be the new influence of power on the high seas. Two Disrupters will shadow a Gerald Ford type carrier with a few destroyers thrown in for added defense. The fire-power will amount to what the Zumwalt was intended but its versatility equals a "Burke" in spades.

This yet to be confirmed hull will house both crew and ancillary forces depending on the situation it encounters. A definite Blue-water warrior with a stand-off littoral capability, it will be a game changer (hence Disrupter) in any conflict. More likely it may replace the Zumwalt's lofty goal of 30 hulls now reduced down to just three hulls. It may cost a billion+ but not to exceed the Zumwalts per ship cost. Money on that program was mad lab spending which will be installed on a new hull designed as a Disrupter.  

Helicopters are needed for up to four seated on its "large stern deck. An F-35B could land on its platformed deck. Missiles cells forward are the business end for worldwide conflicts. The back-end is for surgical strikes and disruption on the battlespace. The ultimate game-changing offers little comfort to potential adversaries as adaptation is its secret weapon. How well it changes its mission profile on a large scale makes its primary mission, offensive, but its defensive profile makes it a fool's errand to try and take it out. All of this from the Zumwalt lab. 

A National Treasure Is Too High A Risk?

Japan is considering a hybrid F-22.F-35 rendering. This of course to the common observer would mean an F-22 aero performance married to an F-35 electronic center with a dash of stealth sprinkled on its skin. The big discussion point for acquiring such a beast is its cost. Just losing just one to a mechanical issue or a military incident would sink over $200 million dollars at a glance. Or to common folk, it would equal about four hundred sensibly sized homes in the western world per hybrid jet.

All the lessons learned and all the advancements added to a hybrid would make a national treasure to the likes of what Nicholas Cage would hyperventilate over on his next "National Treasure" movie. It would be such an airplane equivalent to losing a battle in a war with one downed jet. However, the risk of just one loss is balanced with a victory by one super-jet. If it took out a missile battery with one shot it would set back someones industrial complex by ten years. Or a back to the drawing board event costing the adversary billions in a new missile scheme.

There is much more at stake. The national security and defense are at stake and that has no price tag for our cultural sensibilities at this time or at any time. People will fight to win at a World War II scale or just die. So the reward outweighs the risk in this case. War is already declared and for example, the US has been waging a techno-war for some time. It so far is winning through its F-35, satellites and other such devices we are not informed about during the 21st century. Money is only spent others cannot match and thus the war being fought is won through superior firepower of spending. This strategy could too also come to a dead end when an adversary comes up with something so off the wall or out of a garage it stifles those spending ludicrous amounts on military industry without end or limits.

The price for Japan building a super-fighter or Europe answering with a gen 6 fighter is what is at stake. The risk of losing that techno war is with its national resources  (money) but not its people. The national sovereignty is at risk if it cannot defend itself, Anialation is no longer a modern answer as a nation has too much to offer once subdued. The risk comes back to losing just one jet with its 200+ million costs. Today, implementing a total victory is a mad solution for any combatant, so building a fleet of maybe 100 such jets is the risk for such a great reward of defending its sovereignty. The US, being a developmental partner would make a Japanese super fighter possible. The trade for such a deal would be another 250 US F-?  A military partnership with Japan would complete the F-22 objective of about 400 in its class, as the US was seeking when it started the F-22 journey by only 187 units could be obtained. Except in this case improvements in melding the F-35 capabilities with the F-22 could be achieved.

The Real Stealth Of The F-35

It is, of course, the right question finds the right answer. The "What is it?", becomes the real stealth. Lockheed has spent copious billions on an idea hoping "others" might build into that idea as the audience would with do with a slight of hand exchange at the marketplace. The F-35 main weapon is sensor fusion. Not aerobatics, no missiles definitely not exceeding range with speed. The real stealth is Lockheed's confusing description of how good it is at everything. The but, the best question, will be is that stealth of hand be enough?

The trick is not in the aerobatic realm nor is in the superior performance capability, but is in the con job of not knowing what's coming next. Applause is heard after ejecting when an F-35 pulls the chair out from underneath another J-20. Those who call it an "underachieving pig", just don't get its purpose. When asking Lockheed, you get different answers as if a magician never reveals how it does its tricks of deception.

The stealth is in what little knowledge is available for modern warfare. If fighting from the back of a dark age thoroughbred stallion awaiting a ladies favor, then the Russian and Chinese solution is for you. But if not using a sword or lance in combat on a stout mount, then the other stealth is best done without vectoring nozzles for the dogfight. The real stealth is what deceptions the F-35 offers. Nobody knows how to use its invisible capability on the world's stage. Every adversarial nation and some allied nation are seeking what the F-35 is about with no luck providing the answers.

The following answers are available. It has a stealth which is being dissected. It isn't a good dogfighter. Its slower than a Mach 2 aircraft. It doesn't go far enough on its load of fuel. The missiles on the wings are not adequate for its capabilities. It glitches every day as so the sellers of news have wanted to print or broadcast for its advertisers.

So what is the F-35? It's a slight of hand when describing its attributes. It's deception beyond performance. It connects all the moving parts. It will have a laser light show. It's flying is for everything "bolted" on within the course of its real stealth, called deception. The dogfight becomes more medieval than efficient. Penn and Teller would be proud of the F-35 since so many have said so much about its shortfalls, the Lockheed corporation built vast numbers of F-35 deceptions. It rapidly becomes worth the money spent on its real performance. Horses on the battlefield are so 18th century.

The F-35B, The Best, A Beast and Brass

Those could be the words that an F-35B exemplifies. Imagine a Mach 1,6 advanced stealth fighter that can be deployed to a few acres with a fast jet designation. The F-35B is Britain's next step up for quieting adversaries not compliant with the free world. Helicopters have long carried the load from rooftops or parking lots. The F-35B is possibly the best beast for the fight. Helicopters...well have its place.

Quote: From Lockheed Martin Publication

"The UK will declare F-35 maritime Initial Operational Capability in 2020. When the new carrier comes into service, the F-35B will dominate the skies for decades to come. Squadron Leader Andy “GARY” Edgell, RAF, is the first UK military pilot to complete a takeoff from the ski jump with an F-35B.

“The performance of the jet has been great. As the pilot, I have to do very little to accomplish a perfect ski jump takeoff,” commented Edgell. “I push the STOVL [short take-off vertical landing] button to convert to Mode 4, push throttle to mil and use the pedals for minor directional inputs to remain on centerline.”

The "Swiss Army Knife" of the skies will change the battlespace as it issues a variety of capabilities from just a 300-foot stripe of firm surface with a ski ramp at its end. The HMS Queen Elizabeth is about to find out if years of planning and engineering of its ship makes for a perfect F-35B storm. 

The imagination for those in the know is the only thing stopping this collaboration is political will. The war has changed and now it only remains to see if the F-35 idea was well conceived or a total failure. Those who make money talking about failure and the F-35 in the same space haven't been paying attention.

How Big is the Boeing Everett Plant?

Bigger than a Tulip Farm in Everett, Wa., that's how big. Going from north to south.
                                                                                   Wing:787:   777                                   Paint
 

Roof Photo:                                                                   N-Wing↓White: S-787↓black roof: Paint↓ 

If you can figure out what I'm describing then you win! 

"Note To Self", Aviation's Market Doldrums Is August

There are only so many airlanes sold and upgrades made during the month of August. Several airlines have now penciled in completing Rolls Royce Engine check by the end of 2018, returning respective fleets to full service by year's end. Biman received a delivery on its first 787. Now you know what the aviation doldrums looks like. Not even another redo comment on the 797 program progress. Not even an announcement scintillating the reading public about a Farnborough post-show order firming. The August aviation doldrums are for real stifling the nonsense crowd into making noise over another Rolls Royce chipped fan blade.

Therefore or furthermore, fighting fires with aerial tankers flying off of lakes and into the timber, are the most dynamic news,

Below: CL-215 water-scooping air tankers working the Howe Ridge Fire August 16, 2018. InciWeb photo.
Back left dropping the load on the trees. Front center scooping run. "All dangerous"


That is a really cool picture on an August hot doldrum day in Montana. See those trees in the background? I camped near those same trees on this same lake (McDonald) in Glacier National Park with my family in Montana. 

Now you know what a fire zone war space looks like with water tankers. The lake acts as some gigantic extinguisher. It's very dangerous work and tremendously exhilarating to watch the experts fly with their necks on the fire line. Homes were lost and that portion of Glacier Park is closed. My beloved Fish Creek Campground may make it through the firestorm.

The Howe Ridge fire was some distance from the lake on August 16 (below), and now it has burned to the water as shown in this US Forest Service fire photo below this first photo in the pairing.





August Aviation doldrums looks an "awful" like this in Glacier park from Lake McDonald Lodge dock. I also spent a lot of time on this dock during the summers of my youth. If I were there I would be not fishing. This is the Howe Ridge fire burning to the water's edge sending some campers into the water for a boat rescue. 

The Hungry Horse News Is A Great Newspaper! It has the best history and photos in this region. One of its photos below of the aerial combat zone with a tour boat running for safety.

Glacier park will live on after I'm gone but at least I made it my place from 1971 when I worked in the park as these parts are familiar to me, but I never saw a water tanker like this on Lake McDonald. Been on that boat though.

Boeing Orders Posted Today Post Farnborough

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One contemplates the Boeing order book and sees many missing parts of the order book puzzle. Missing is the Viet Jet number for 100 Max Boeing signed for as a firm order and a massive shift from unidentified to named aircraft carriers not changing the book total over-all by zip. However, the good of the bad and ugly is Boeing has a sizable number of aircraft not listed as of July 31, 2018, as a firm order. If Farnsborough Boeing numbers do eventually show up on the Boeing order book it could easily exceed 750 units ordered during 2018 as of this date today. But having accountants pouring over deals is a full-time job requiring 2080 hours a year per accountant on salary and the year is only 2/3rds through with another 700 hours out of each accountant to go before the end of the year. Below is a mishmash of Boeing's order book to date. Good luck on being cogent about its importance until some big deals not listed show-up. Below is the summary book as of July 31, 2018 per Boeing's own website.

Southwest Airlines Ponders A Weighty Matter

How much an airplane weighs is very important. It's as important as a passengers caloric intake each day. Southwest airlines discover it needed to weigh. 68 airplanes which had incorrect weights documented in its database and needed a weight measure do-over. were grounded until weighed. Weight and miles have a direct impact on how much fuel is burned for a prescribed distance.

Fortunately for passengers, a donut eaten onboard a 737, does not increase the weight of the payload, but 24 hours later a passenger may have to buy new clothes for the trip home because that donut has expanded the passenger's horizons by an inch at the waist.

The Three Days Of F-35 War

Recently the Dutch featured its F-35 flying through the Sierra Nevada Range of Mountains in California with a Photo Journalist on Hand here is the result of this photograph.

Dutch F-35 in Beast Mode.

Beast mode Day Three of war

For those who wonder why we have a stealth aircraft which would not evade radar when bombs are hung on its wings. The answers are simple. The three days of airwar is for the F-35-A, B, and C.

Day 1: Stealth, Stealth, Stealth

Day 2: Long range Air to Air combat

Day 3: Beast Mode mop up.

Day one is for internal weapons load for taking out radar systems making them blind to the F-35 stealth. Having those systems down makes adversarial missile systems useless against the F-35 and makes the F-16, F-15 and F-18 players fused into the F-35 for Day two of war maneuvers. 

Day two is air to air combat day which the adversaries will be flying blind to all American fighters synced with the F-35, Satellite, and surface systems. 

Day three is a non-stealth day for the F-35 Beast mode for all aircraft. Including the B-1, B-2 and eventually B-21 Raider. The F-35 can now play Quarterback and direct the US arsenal with impunity setting stealth aside and using the F-15 Strike Eagles for any remaining aircraft coming up to meet this aviation armada unloading on the combat airspace.

Beast mode will clean the battlefield's deck eliminating armor, bunkers, and hardened position allowing the ground forces access for eventual victory. The electronic war is already neutralized on day one. Even its Satellites overwatch will be space junk for any adversary using that type of electronics for battle use.

Perhaps Boeing Not Posting Its August Orders and Delivery For August BY 8-10,

...is a sign it has too many orders from Farnborough it needs to sort out! Anyways the stats guy probably was cut and the newbie hasn't found the desktop keyboard on week one of the new job. Boeing tech miskeyed the "r" from orders sending everyone looking under desks for those pesky odors. Anyway have a nice day, as I sit and ponder about orders.

The 797 Boeing Bluff Card For Airbus

The 797 bluff Airbus into building a skinny A321NEO for eroding the Boeing intention of an NMA aircraft. Boeing's intent is still valid, but after looking at CFM's lagging production of its Max and NEO engines it becomes a concern to re-evaluate the scenario for building a "797".  Boeing needs a second engine producer as the CFM consortium wrestles with engine production woes on the new engine. It can't make enough fast enough! Boeing is taking a step back for design, Plan B and accumulating costs for a new program such as the NMA project.

Boeing will come out with an appropriate offering by 2019 but with a dwindling market from Airbus nick picking the NMA potential for medium sized aircraft. The A321NEO does have a market ceiling and it nears that ceiling by 2019, at the expense of some potential Boeing 797 sales. However, with a two engine type offering, it could bounce Airbus hard with landing more NMA orders expected. I would expect Boeing is toying with two 797 types and then two different model within the type.

The two types would be for 220 or 270 seat carrier with each having two different engine types for each capacity. This would follow true when building a passenger/freight version and that becomes the Boeing sticking point. How will it build a passenger only variation while building a passenger-cargo holding variation? North America indicted it is good with a passenger only configuration while Asia wants some cargo capacity with its own delivered form. Boeing could opt for the former AKA; North American over the "Asian". The Asian model may be dropped from consideration, suffering some more market loss but not necessarily to the A321NEO option. It sounds more like another Boeing Moonshot is in the offing.

It's Complicated: Boeing is taking a break from the 797 concepts until later in 2019. The final rendition for an NMA will resemble more of a conventional ovoid body with an enhanced cargo bay. It will have new engines and 787 like technology infused into its frame. It will have Everett made wings out of carbon fiber. It needs a significant weight reduction over prior generation airplane types. Even though Asia won't get all it wants, but it will get a 797 having traditional cargo space that no in-class competition can produce when it arrives. The Asian market won't lever Boeing. Boeing will not complicate the final NMA solution. 

However, the engine award is going to be a single sourced supplier. The engine is the most complicated item Boeing is facing on this program at this time. It may take Boeing more time than it intended when selecting an engine. Rolls has its problems and CFM has not untangled its production shortfall. Either one would be a risk of not delivering fast enough during the 797 onsets of delivery that Boeing is willing to risk. Boeing is displaying an NMA bluff card where Airbus counters with its A321NEO in the meantime.

Boeing can take the play with its bluffs and frustrate the Airbus team with different conceptions until the 797 firmly announces.

Boeing's Deferred Cost of 24.5 Billion

Boeing has 674 undelivered 787's. If all were delivered it would need $38.3 million contributions from each delivered aircraft. Fortunately for Boeing, it has booked more orders and will book more orders by year's end. 

Deferred Costs Soaks The Monopoly Man At Boeing

When building and delivering at least 135 units a year, Boeing may exhaust that backlog over the next five years as it approaches the 1400 unit block point it has established after announcing these unit numbers for eliminating the deferred balance. 

The 1400 unit block requires a $34.2 million per unit surplus as a goal when having five years for building 716 units as an example by 2024. It's a good prediction that is influenced by a more profitable 787-9 and -10 in the production works than its less profitable 787-8 which are already optimized on the production line.

In conclusion, Boeing already has 716 backlog units even though not all booked at this time, but it should exceed that number when posts its August report for July 2018. Therefore, the profit dollar must maintain an average of $34.2 million dollars per unit (profit margin ) delivered over the next five years in order to reduce its 787 deferred cost balance, which has now dropped to $24.5 billion from the $28 billion benchmark.

By 2024 Boeing may add another 500 units to its backlog than it has today even when building 144 787's a year at a 12 a month rate. The deferred balance total is a solid bullseye in Boeing's sights.

The 737 Heated Up At Farnborough

It's no accident that Boeing dominated this year's air show at Farnborough. It booked 564 737 types at this year's show surpassing its long-standing arch-rival, the Airbus company. Already, Boeing has firmed a prior Viet Jet MOU/LOI commitment into a firm order today pushing Boeing's firm order upward by 100 units. This would be a firm up for 80 of its Max 737-8's and then 20 Max 737-10's. The Boeing MOU/LOI dividend is already paying off.

Time is the key metric for this Boeing onslaught at the airshow.   Both the NEO and the Max have had time in the marketplace under the operational condition and customers haven't missed the memo that the 737 Max beats the A320NEO. Viet Jet ordered 100 Max and 50 A320's in a head to head decision for single-aisle types. What this means is Viet Jet is leveraging both makers into the lowest price possible under a competitive environment and it already firmed its 100 737 Max ordered just only days after the show.

Timing may have sped along the finances and early firm order signing, but it does show Viet Jet has done its homework and the Max is a pretty good deal from initial costs through operational efficiencies beating the A320NEO. The important takeaway is that Boeing has become aggressive because it has a winner in the Max and other customers are watching this competitive drama unfold in the most lucrative single-aisle market. 

Now the Farnborough play reflects Viet Jets signing for its Max. Airbus booked 304 A320's having a firm, MOU, or LOI designation. It is interesting to note, that too is almost a two to one Boeing advantage with its Max over the single-aisle NEO at the show over-all. Airbus by day four only had a total of 93 firm orders booked for all commercial product at that time.

It also is important to note, Boeing had booked 350 single-aisle and widebody orders at the show giving Boeing a four to one advantage with firm show orders. The Viet Jet confirmation for 100 Max increases Boeing's current market hold by a hundred more aircraft pushing the Boeing /Airbus show disparity above four to one sales ratio for this year's show. Boeing made serious headway over its market share status for single-aisle at the show and it could increase by year's end. In only two weeks we all should see the Boeing.com total 2018 order numbers within its publication. 

Currently, Airbus has about a 1,000 unit lead over Boeing but the market trend from the show encourages Boeing for closing the gap in numbers by year's end. It will not make up the single-aisle shortfall with Airbus but Boeing will make Airbus nervous with this Farnborough order surge and may close the gap between the two giants by 500 units instead of 1,000 single-aisle order gap.

Embraer Could Be Single Aisle Division For Boeing

It is possible that Boeing is taking so long with its impending 797 launch announcement because it may be reorganizing its airplane family to include an Embraer built the single-aisle family of aircraft where Boeing will become a dual aisle master of aircraft. There is room for Boeing to fill a gap with its 797 concepts with perhaps three different models at the start of a launch for the 797. It is also possible for Boeing expanding Embraer's horizons with a continued family from the ERJ 135 through the 737-9 models. The 737 Max 10 would morph into the 797 series with Boeing as a dual-aisle aircraft starting the series with 220-240 seats. The next 797 step would become a 250 seat dual aisle 797 and finally, the 270 seat 797 would cross continents with a regional bent.

The lessons learned from the 787-300 concept was too soon to fill the gap because customers didn't get it. Since Boeing was too experimental with the 787 plastic ideas at the time and new airplane risks were off the charts. However, it was a natural gap filler needing its own family as much as the top end of the Single-aisle member, the 737 Max 10 in order to respond well in the market. 

Embraer fell into Boeing's lap and that changed everything for the Boeing thinking cap. Renton Washington could build everything 797 instead of the Max family. Embraer can now knit its own family together from 50 seats to 175 seats without threatening Boeing's family of single-aisle aircraft by a 2030 clean-sheet. The 797 family starts off right where the 737-10 left -off at $130 million list price and then go North to $200 million with a 270 seat 797. The gap would close and have Airbus at the game, set, and match.

Boeing would be dual-aisle and Embraer would be single-aisle. The lucrative 737 Max book would slide forward to Embraer by 2030 and after which Boeing has firmly entrenched with its 797 families and Embraer gains the know-how for a whole new single-aisle design. 

Boeing would co-star in a design team effort for a new single-aisle concept as indicated previously. The year 2030 is just a milestone in aviation's evolution and it would be a natural fit for a Brazilian/US joint venture of resources and markets. The customers would have to catch this vision as well. They would have plenty to say on a new single-aisle design. Embraer would fill the single-aisle market with what customers want and what Boeing could do for them (Embraer or customer).

The risks are high, but the reward is higher if managed well. The key is if Boeing has found a 4,000 aircraft market without disrupting the 787 golden goose. The world keeps growing in numbers and dual-aisle is a natural design for more passengers. If Boeing data indicates 4,000 is a low number for the 797 type of aircraft, it is because pundits haven't considered the broader gap where populations need moving just like it goes today in the single-aisle aircraft as then an NMA reality becomes the reality of a 6,000 unit 797 family of aircraft. The higher NMA numbers is that market realization only after it arrives with its first delivery prompting a 797 dual-aisle market expansion.  The single-aisle market stabilizes with this gap filler. 

All in all, Boeing pauses with the "MoM", using an Embraer alliance for cover. Even as it tries to figure out how both the market and its new partner will fit-in with its own broader scheme for developing the dual-aisle medium aircraft. The 797 should become a permanent upscale from the single-aisle, as the world's travel demand expands.  

Boeing is paused because of this New Medium Aircraft market risk is great when fitting into the broader airplane market with a "super-two" as an adjunct for both the 737 and 787 in the emerging world's marketplace. It just needs to know how many NMA's aircraft it can sell before its new Brazilian partner can build its next version of a single-aisle. Otherwise, Embraer would not have joined with Boeing. A prediction for the NMA family would go as follows:

• 797-800
• 797-900
• 797-1000

A clean sheet Boeing-Embraer single-aisle starting in 2030 may start a B/E family with a 737E-2  named for the lowest seat count (50-75 seats) where it builds up to a 737E-9 (200 seats) before the jump to a Boeing 797-800.
.

797 Metal Totally Tubular; Composite Is Ovoid!

The 797 purveyors are guessing what the 797 will be built of and schools of thought are floating the press reports. The Seattle Times reports, Ihssane Mounir, Boeing, Commercial Sales, and marketing VP who stated at Farnborough, "the 797 will go composite", while other Boeing groupies say metal body for Everett, Wa.

“We are committed to continuing looking at a composite structure,” said Boeing sales Chief, Ihssane Mounir. 

This argument is a diversion from reality as Winging It is a reliable source using second-day quips.

A metal body speaks of China stepping up its freight concerns and a composite body becomes an ovoid shape for passenger comfort in North America. Boeing's VP suggest the composite structure is "in" the running during the Farnborough Airshow. 

Winging It thinks maybe both body types are correct. a 220 passenger class metal body for Chinas freight and passengers and a 270 passenger type made of composite with a different shape just for passenger traffic. Everett would build the metal type and Charleston would build the composite type both totaling 2,000 orders in the first 5 years. Let's just say the 787-300 has taken on a different shape to its approach.

The aircraft types would share engines, avionics, and technology advances but would have different designs features which are why Boeing is taking so long to decide on the announcement. It's complicated to make it a simple decision. It’s a crazy world and Winging It enjoys the dog and pony show.

Farnborough Day 4, I Guess (updated I guess: part II)

The official Winging IT guess is Boeing's killing Airbus this year at Farnborough 2018 for orders as the numbers are shown below: The firm orders will add to the annual book for Boeing's "July" reported in August as it updates its own website. The firm Boeing Book Airshow grows in number at a 3-1 order pace over Airbus capping-reporting for July 2018. Even the Commitment/MOU outpaces Airbus at this time. Remembering some big widebody orders not yet firmed by Boeing occurring before the Airshow, it maintains a solid lead over Airbus. It may even beat the Airbus shuffle at year's end 2018.

Winging Its Order Guesstimate Farnborough 2018

Below is an Airshow estimated correction as shown above for Boeing Co., otherwise a tally by type. The list is a compilation of total orders and commitments and is an unofficial amount but does illustrate the potential Boeing order book if all commitments are signed as firm orders.

Corrected view per additional publicized Airshow recap

Notes:
P= passenger type
F= Freight tye

Boeing's 797 Is The Candy Wrapper Boeing Wants Also The Candy Bar

Boeing currently sells its airplanes for 30% of its future cash inflow where it could also market in-house products supporting those aircraft over the next thirty years for 70% more cash intake. Boeing theoretically, has a 70% in-house product margin not yet tapped. It could and now has indicated it will seek ways to move more product line to its core mission.

The following are possibilities and actual implementations:

·      Global services such as ground maintenance and Boeing staffing.

·      Global services such as over-arching training and Boeing proprietary parts supplier

·      Exclusive Supplier Contracts

·      Providing a third party gateway for major systems replacement such as engines, gearing, and electronics.

·      Finally, a nose to tail Boeing product suite.

·      Additionally, worldwide added value accessibility for leading-edge Boeing components

These are a wide-ranging list for what Boeing is establishing for its plus 70%  business model. Selling an airplane is a gateway into the Boeing airplane business catalog. It may become as simple as going to its electronic interface and selecting a preferred service item and a Boeing representative will confirm the service or add value to an airline own business plan. China is home to multiples of start-up airlines. The Boeing emphasis towards the added value model when buying an aircraft expands a customer’s options for its new ventures. Cash-strapped legacy carriers may also identify high-cost areas of its operations and quickly go to Boeing's 70% portion and pull out a plan that is more efficient so it can remain more competitive.

In other words, the 70% realm is created out of the one-stop shop philosophy. Boeing is changing its business model to accommodate rising airline customers at every stage of its growth and offers already mature airline customers’ options in which to lever its operations on-the-fly. The Boeing goal is to capture the financial potential after an airplane is sold by 70% over its next thirty years while in operation with an airline, at a value less than what the same airline could do on its own. Boeing being aggressive with it one-stop-shop business modeling convincing customers while purchasing a Boeing it is eligible for additional Boeing advantages over thirty Years. The over-arching business plan has a name and its called "The Edge".

Boeing Chokes On Its 797 and Says 2019

Winging It has long predicted a 2018 797 launch. The time window is just right for Boeing but its leaders have just now cleared its voice saying, "2019" for the 797 Goldilocks and will launch (hinted) in 2019 because its business case is not yet perfected for the 797. Winging It also believes a concurrent program for the 797 exists. 

In other words, the program has seven years before an official delivery date but in those seven years, Boeing would also concurrently resolve all financial planning concerns. Boeing does have its customers for a launch at this time. It also has its technological bundle for the 797 in a row. The design points are now relegated to an adjustment period where the eraser could change what launch customer would want for a refining design. An observer (Winging It) has no idea what has just occurred with the Boeing 797 prototype but only assumes it will hold 220-270 passengers and fly 5000-mile distance with full loads.

As mentioned before, CFM (A GE joint venture with Safran, jet engine builders) has let this little nuance out of its bag; "CFM" is ready to go with Boeing on a 797 "45,000 lbs thrust range". That is a major concern (having a new engine) for this airplane program and one more year waiting for a launch does not change the 2025 first delivery date but does allow Rolls, PW and GE; a shot of making a solid proposal during 2019. The concurrency has started with an engine builder already "concurrently" working an engine-up by Paris where development is farther along than the press would indicate. Expect an engine proposal coming forward, with Boeing accepting a single source jet engine. Rolls Royce is working at a high pace proposing a 797 jet engine by Paris Air Show, 2019. CFM is working and indicating it is ready for Boeing's 797 and GE is lurking while PW GTF is also a strong contender.

It could announce at Farnborough but won't announce because Boeing has backed down its new airplane development swagger as a corporate policy, thus avoiding all-new airplane woes experienced from the 787 experience. Airbus knows where Boeing is going and Boeing is not in the Airbus rearview mirror. Airbus needs to clean its windscreen several times a day from Boeing splatters at this time. The 797 is the biggest spatter for Airbus, which no wiper could possibly clean in time for the Paris Airshow. Boeing is going to have a huge widebody order book at Farnborough while Airbus will announce several hundred single-aisle A-320's orders. The dollar order value will favor Boeing at Farnborough and beyond.

The KC-46 Takes-Off

Needing a certificate from several agencies and especially the US Air Force, the Boeing corporation exhales as it completes its tanker tests this month. It is ready to start serving the US Air Force with its Boeing built KC-46 tankers going forward. One of the previous key problems for the tanker requiring this final testing was the remote sensing function for the boom hooking up with its flying customer's. Prior to this final test, the tanker's remote sensing would have some occasion to lose contact or scratch and dent the trailer fueling aircraft with its fueling probe. 

The former process for fuel transfer required an airman to lie flat watching the hook-up from the flat position while operating controls for its fueling procedure. The KC-46 now has an airman sitting forward in the aircraft body from this former position conducting this mission on a screen with all the tanker fueling capabilities at his fingertips. The tests for this modernization had some flaws where glare showing from the sensor to the screen blocked a clear view for its operators. 

It went back to the shop for fixing and testing for which it now has passed using software upgrades and possibly some other equipment upgrades. It now works as tests indicate and the tanker can now deliver without operator obstruction of view or loss of fueling probe placement.



KMUW reports:
"The recent tests involved the tanker’s remote vision system and refueling two more types of aircraft. Those results, combined with testing completed in June, made the tanker eligible for delivery, the Air Force said."

The tanker will have first delivery in late October to the Airforce at McConnell AFB, starting the sequence for 18 deliveries by April 2019.

Whew, it's about time and it sounds like a military marvel from all the work done on the program. It will fly the wounded, surveil, and fuel everything the Airforce has with wings except missiles. There are other functions not discussed and remains secret this airplane will do.