The 797 Boeing Bluff Card For Airbus

The 797 bluff Airbus into building a skinny A321NEO for eroding the Boeing intention of an NMA aircraft. Boeing's intent is still valid, but after looking at CFM's lagging production of its Max and NEO engines it becomes a concern to re-evaluate the scenario for building a "797".  Boeing needs a second engine producer as the CFM consortium wrestles with engine production woes on the new engine. It can't make enough fast enough! Boeing is taking a step back for design, Plan B and accumulating costs for a new program such as the NMA project.

Boeing will come out with an appropriate offering by 2019 but with a dwindling market from Airbus nick picking the NMA potential for medium sized aircraft. The A321NEO does have a market ceiling and it nears that ceiling by 2019, at the expense of some potential Boeing 797 sales. However, with a two engine type offering, it could bounce Airbus hard with landing more NMA orders expected. I would expect Boeing is toying with two 797 types and then two different model within the type.

The two types would be for 220 or 270 seat carrier with each having two different engine types for each capacity. This would follow true when building a passenger/freight version and that becomes the Boeing sticking point. How will it build a passenger only variation while building a passenger-cargo holding variation? North America indicted it is good with a passenger only configuration while Asia wants some cargo capacity with its own delivered form. Boeing could opt for the former AKA; North American over the "Asian". The Asian model may be dropped from consideration, suffering some more market loss but not necessarily to the A321NEO option. It sounds more like another Boeing Moonshot is in the offing.

It's Complicated: Boeing is taking a break from the 797 concepts until later in 2019. The final rendition for an NMA will resemble more of a conventional ovoid body with an enhanced cargo bay. It will have new engines and 787 like technology infused into its frame. It will have Everett made wings out of carbon fiber. It needs a significant weight reduction over prior generation airplane types. Even though Asia won't get all it wants, but it will get a 797 having traditional cargo space that no in-class competition can produce when it arrives. The Asian market won't lever Boeing. Boeing will not complicate the final NMA solution. 

However, the engine award is going to be a single sourced supplier. The engine is the most complicated item Boeing is facing on this program at this time. It may take Boeing more time than it intended when selecting an engine. Rolls has its problems and CFM has not untangled its production shortfall. Either one would be a risk of not delivering fast enough during the 797 onsets of delivery that Boeing is willing to risk. Boeing is displaying an NMA bluff card where Airbus counters with its A321NEO in the meantime.

Boeing can take the play with its bluffs and frustrate the Airbus team with different conceptions until the 797 firmly announces.