Embraer Could Be Single Aisle Division For Boeing

It is possible that Boeing is taking so long with its impending 797 launch announcement because it may be reorganizing its airplane family to include an Embraer built the single-aisle family of aircraft where Boeing will become a dual aisle master of aircraft. There is room for Boeing to fill a gap with its 797 concepts with perhaps three different models at the start of a launch for the 797. It is also possible for Boeing expanding Embraer's horizons with a continued family from the ERJ 135 through the 737-9 models. The 737 Max 10 would morph into the 797 series with Boeing as a dual-aisle aircraft starting the series with 220-240 seats. The next 797 step would become a 250 seat dual aisle 797 and finally, the 270 seat 797 would cross continents with a regional bent.

The lessons learned from the 787-300 concept was too soon to fill the gap because customers didn't get it. Since Boeing was too experimental with the 787 plastic ideas at the time and new airplane risks were off the charts. However, it was a natural gap filler needing its own family as much as the top end of the Single-aisle member, the 737 Max 10 in order to respond well in the market. 

Embraer fell into Boeing's lap and that changed everything for the Boeing thinking cap. Renton Washington could build everything 797 instead of the Max family. Embraer can now knit its own family together from 50 seats to 175 seats without threatening Boeing's family of single-aisle aircraft by a 2030 clean-sheet. The 797 family starts off right where the 737-10 left -off at $130 million list price and then go North to $200 million with a 270 seat 797. The gap would close and have Airbus at the game, set, and match.

Boeing would be dual-aisle and Embraer would be single-aisle. The lucrative 737 Max book would slide forward to Embraer by 2030 and after which Boeing has firmly entrenched with its 797 families and Embraer gains the know-how for a whole new single-aisle design. 

Boeing would co-star in a design team effort for a new single-aisle concept as indicated previously. The year 2030 is just a milestone in aviation's evolution and it would be a natural fit for a Brazilian/US joint venture of resources and markets. The customers would have to catch this vision as well. They would have plenty to say on a new single-aisle design. Embraer would fill the single-aisle market with what customers want and what Boeing could do for them (Embraer or customer).

The risks are high, but the reward is higher if managed well. The key is if Boeing has found a 4,000 aircraft market without disrupting the 787 golden goose. The world keeps growing in numbers and dual-aisle is a natural design for more passengers. If Boeing data indicates 4,000 is a low number for the 797 type of aircraft, it is because pundits haven't considered the broader gap where populations need moving just like it goes today in the single-aisle aircraft as then an NMA reality becomes the reality of a 6,000 unit 797 family of aircraft. The higher NMA numbers is that market realization only after it arrives with its first delivery prompting a 797 dual-aisle market expansion.  The single-aisle market stabilizes with this gap filler. 

All in all, Boeing pauses with the "MoM", using an Embraer alliance for cover. Even as it tries to figure out how both the market and its new partner will fit-in with its own broader scheme for developing the dual-aisle medium aircraft. The 797 should become a permanent upscale from the single-aisle, as the world's travel demand expands.  

Boeing is paused because of this New Medium Aircraft market risk is great when fitting into the broader airplane market with a "super-two" as an adjunct for both the 737 and 787 in the emerging world's marketplace. It just needs to know how many NMA's aircraft it can sell before its new Brazilian partner can build its next version of a single-aisle. Otherwise, Embraer would not have joined with Boeing. A prediction for the NMA family would go as follows:

• 797-800
• 797-900
• 797-1000

A clean sheet Boeing-Embraer single-aisle starting in 2030 may start a B/E family with a 737E-2  named for the lowest seat count (50-75 seats) where it builds up to a 737E-9 (200 seats) before the jump to a Boeing 797-800.
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