I'm Back For New Comments (hope you can stand it)!

                     

Andrew Boydston

Chief Blogger

I'm back and not dead, so I will be sparsely writing during this comment effort. Thinking is hard to do but it must be done or I will disappear. Aviation has progressed another year without my comment but Covid-19 has had its turn in its place and has made flying more cautious for its passengers. So it didn't kill me yet. That in itself, is an achievement. So enjoy my next aviation articles as soon as its published on this blog.

Covid-19 Right Sizes the Market to 787's

                                

                                                    Andrew Boydston 

                                                      Chief Blogger

No airline in this pandemic is buying wide body (WB) yet. Boeing lucked out  with its 787 programs as it offers a smaller seat count per airplane than the A350 family of aircraft when passenger seat ticket sales have a quantity decline. The dip in covid-19 seat sales allows Boeing's airline customers to reconfigure floor plans more efficiently. 

Thus a 240 seat 787 can reconfigure with a 180 seat variation being purchased by the airline for less money than the purchase price of a A350-900 or A 350-1000. 

The 787-10 is more attractive for stuffing covid-19 risk passenger than the A350-1000 400 seater going all the way across oceans and continents.

Boeing is positioned better than Airbus to sweep airshows in 2021.

F-35 Score Card

The Covid-19 impact is slowing the F-35

production as supply chain producers adjust to

the new normal from covid-19 side effects of

distancing.

Lockheed Martin sees F-35 production rising to 180 

units per year, despite high flying costs.

Lockheed slated to miss F-35 delivery target in 2020 as supply chain struggles to keep up.

                                

                                                       Andrew Boydston Chief Blogger

BA Dumps An Aviation Pandemic By letting Go Of 28 747's

Perhaps this will pave the way for the 777X program in the next few years. BA had marked itself with Boeing for 18 777X. It just announced the canning of 28 of its 747 it has on active duty. I take this as a rebuild the fleet, in these times. Or beginning the heavy WB era starting with the 777X plan. BA has an opening for WB heavies over the the next five years once it knows pricing, the 777X performance numbers, and passenger demand.

                                

                                                       Andrew Boydston Chief Blogger

It may order 10 more 777X according to the number of model types available. This would replace the top end of the wide body fleet. Including any 777's flying routes currently using 41 777 classics from 777 200-300ER's. The total wide body fleet on the chopping block could be 79 wide bodies being replaced over time with the 777X's, when using the number including the 28 747's. This could be managed over the next ten years through buying 777X's and replacing BA is listed below.

The Competition's order book

Current BA WB fleet

747's (28) 

777-200 (2)

777-200ER (43) 

777 300ER (6)

Total Heavy WB fleet    79

BA Orders and fleet changes        +18 777X orders

747's grounded 7/17/2020 -28 

777-200 retired over time     45    

777-300ER retired over time  6

Total Heavy WB needs for a change       41 to maintain current seating

                                        

Of course, current pandemic may cause a deviation downward in total passenger seats required.

BA net replacement additional needs are 41 777X or 787 (Mix) for any wide body sustainment plan which maintains its current fleet including the 28 just cancelled 747 in its current fleet as of yesterday. BA may order in the next two years a mix of 777-9X, 777-8X, and 787-10.

The 737 Max IS Being Inspected For Return BY 2021

The 737 Max "just good enough" approach is being tested by the FAA last week and this week. The Euro inspectors haven't showed its hand at this time. The time and place has not been reported for that thing to occur. Boeing hopes to get the 737 Max back into customer's hands by years end. The hope is to get pilots of customers available for customer flight as the next big step for which the FAA will now test. The flight simulator and pilot training for a newly revised 737 Max is the next big hurdle taken in this process.

                                         

                                                       Andrew Boydston Chief Blogger

Just good enough is on the horizon for the Max 737. However, this  Max program needs a best in market rating. That will come once this airplane is making money for airlines with passengers who fly on it with a restored enthusiasm as the former NG had obtained. Expect Boeing marketing to become more aggressive in the single-aisle realm once the 737 Max becomes airborne again. It has nothing at this time to brag about. 

                                                                       

However, the actual 737 Max outlook is very promising when comparing with the A320NEO in a head to head evaluation. By 2022, Boeing order book at major air shows will mushroom on the order charts, only if the returns in an expected manner from historical  counts. I have always believed views for the aircraft model. Even though my opinion is of little or no consciencial impact, Boeing must not squander the hard work its people have put into its airplane making just for a penny profit for its affluent stockholders. The new corporate appeasement or purpose.

Here is the problem. Airbus made a side stick for its pilots. It made Cadillac car like comfort from nose to tail. It's not a good sports car or 4-wheeler. It's a more pleasant experience over Boeing products where Boeing has targeted its marketplace as a better way to conduct business while using lower investments paradigm in any aviation operation. Airbus says make money by attracting ticket holders. Boeing says make money by a more efficient operation. Will you go for a comfortable flight experience or would a customer want efficiency as seen through a lower ticket price using fewer Benjamins going somewhere?

Its coming back to traveler choice, Bang for the buck or experience for the buck! I am a cheap traveler, its bang for the buck when comes to travel. The Max excels in that area over Airbus product.

The 737-7 IS Airbourne With FAA

The (Max Today) flown and built by Boeing flew its 737-7 having FAA examiners on board and representing the Boeing 737 Max family, while using the smallest Boeing 737-7 model in this line as the test example. The strategic choice for testing the 737-7 is a good option as its larger models, the 737-8-10 is sold and containing the most abundant model type (Max-8) to its customers.  

Thus, the Max-8 causes a massive look at the majority of aircraft Boeing has parked.  Even though Boeing will have to certify all of the grounded Max anyways. 

       Andrew Boydston: Chief Blogger

If the 737-7 is a "go" by the FAA after the next two flight tests then a quicker delivery can be made with the fewer 737-7 models ordered and is an easier lot to manage than the the 737-8 type at this time. The European flight testing team has yet to be engaged which is needed for all of Boeing's testing hurdles of the Max world wide. 

The European approvals for the Max can be made simpler if the FAA/Boeing can independently demonstrate it has met all items both testing agencies meet requirements with a strong case made for each inspection type and the reliability for safe flight.

It will become an expensive process this point forward for new models submitted for certification. As one agency won't approve another agency's findings without validating its own standards for aircraft awaiting certification for safe flight. The agency with the toughest standards will also drive the certification process, since it is simpler to meet some high bar standards while using a double inspection system. The step forward is how the inspection and validation systems work best. 

May the agency with the most complete evaluation win the standards battle with an oversight of some other agency having a final role concurring on the first agency's findings for newly minted airplane types. The 737 Max should of had a double check source for testing, as a submission goes to a second agency approving the first agencies findings for an advanced or new airplane submitted even though training and build replicate the prior version or as a clean sheet. Advanced improvements negates a thinner inspection process as is considered in today's process.

It will increase time and money with this approach, but saving a life is worth the "due diligence" applied to any advanced airplane for certification. Lessons learned, is having duplicate testing from an independent  governance processes or whatever governance is required. The 737-8 crashes exposed a fault of having a builder and independent inspection listen to the builder without a third party, which does not have overriding authority, or not under pressure from the "others" and not having influence over approval or disapproval for airplane certification flight or commercial service. 

In essence 2-1 validation will have "secondary validations answered as well as the primary validations." The by-laws from major airplane builders and inspection agencies cannot assume or demonstrate a bias from builder or agency completing the validation over industry standards.

An unbiased inspection review would of saved hundreds of lives if the 737 Max would have used a more compliant certification process from multiple agencies in the marketplace. In other words from certifying commercial airplanes from single engine to multi engine this would apply. A peer inspection process may cost builders a greater value placed on certified frames but it should save lives.

737 Max Tracks For Certification In August?

The FAA has come to terms with Boeing and early next week is the test target with Boeing's wild ride on its fixed 737 Max after the two crashes of Boeing early built 737 Max, during 2018-2019.

       Andrew Boydston: Chief Blogger

 

Depending on complexity of the fix, it should take-off on a FAA test flight either next Monday or Tuesday early. Boeing will have to agree when it's ready to show the revisions made on the Max since the last crash of the 737 Max during March 2019.

Covid-19 Disrupter near you

Six Gen FA- is about to fly near a aerospace plant near some USAF base in Texas.

                      

       Andrew Boydston: Chief Blogger

 

So I'm partial to aviation things, and the American military juggernaut. Covid-19 is no match to pushing a button of mass destruction and a Sixth Gen will deliver a JSF that sinks ships or land surrounded by water that is coming to a theatre of war near bad actors, similar to China. Let's stop hitting the spacebar and go for the name Gen6 and call it good and better than what's on the military at this time.

By 2024 the F-22 will have changed roles in the scheme of things since the Gen6 will be in production and flying out the door. The prototype or Gen6 parts are rolling down the conveyor belt loaded with ball bearings under each part at this time and should fly by 2021.

Since the F22 emerged on the design board during the 1990's is should be safe to assume a new evolution of jet destroyer is going somewhere with a complement of wingman drones at its side, mopping up airspace, destroying sea lanes and flattening land bases which supports the flaming hoard in the far east. In the end there is the end and Gen6 will fly by then.

Chief Executive Organiser, Winging IT, Speaks!

               

       Alfred E Newman Chief Executive Organizer: 

                                Winging It

Boeing built the economy off of Washington state and now since Covid-19 outbreak it is asking if Alfred knows how to reorganize its airplane business. Winging It (Alfred), 

"says no to that inference! Boeing must put its big boy shorts on and build airplanes according to the hand dealt them. In other words, go buy toilet paper like the rest of the retirement community. It didn't stop covid-19 to do-do that little thing but it was impressive to Costco's bottom line and while jungle paper became the US' number one import during winter of 2020.

WI, Chief Executive Organizer, pleads with Costco every day in the state of Washington and to send more paper instead of pink slips. It's not helping the economy. Now Boeing wants to pink slip its workers across Washington's landscape with 146 here and 10,000 there while there is nothing left to DO!"

A340-600 Quickly Retired With Iberia Removing Its Aircraft Because Of Corona-virus

                          

                              Andrew Boydston: 

                                                 Chief Blogger

Linking Main Article for Verification

The A340-600 is quickly exiting from major airline service, a victim of the coronavirus downturn. Its last two large airline operators, Iberia and Lufthansa, are parking the four-engined jet known for its long fuselage but a short history.

Iberia will retire its A340-600s as part of a restructuring to make the airline smaller for the next five years, CEO Luis Gallego said. Iberia will also reportedly delay new A350s and A320s, and retire older A320 family aircraft.

A340-600s at its three largest operators, as of year-end

A340-600s in service at year-end with its three largest operators, Iberia, Lufthansa, and Virgin ... [+]

 WILL HORTON

Coronavirus is accelerating changes afoot before the downturn. Iberia previously planned to end the year with 10 A340-600s, down from 17 last year. A further five would exit by 2022, and the remaining five by the end of 2025.

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Airlines including China Eastern, Etihad, and Thai Airways retired their smaller A340-600 fleets last decade. Remaining -600s in commercial service is spread across smaller airlines, such as the four at South African Airways and seven at Iran’s Mahan Air, according to Airbus data. Other commercial operators include charter carriers.

              

 Andrew Boydston: Chief Blogger