BA Dumps An Aviation Pandemic By letting Go Of 28 747's

Perhaps this will pave the way for the 777X program in the next few years. BA had marked itself with Boeing for 18 777X. It just announced the canning of 28 of its 747 it has on active duty. I take this as a rebuild the fleet, in these times. Or beginning the heavy WB era starting with the 777X plan. BA has an opening for WB heavies over the the next five years once it knows pricing, the 777X performance numbers, and passenger demand.

                                

                                                       Andrew Boydston Chief Blogger

It may order 10 more 777X according to the number of model types available. This would replace the top end of the wide body fleet. Including any 777's flying routes currently using 41 777 classics from 777 200-300ER's. The total wide body fleet on the chopping block could be 79 wide bodies being replaced over time with the 777X's, when using the number including the 28 747's. This could be managed over the next ten years through buying 777X's and replacing BA is listed below.

The Competition's order book

Current BA WB fleet

747's (28) 

777-200 (2)

777-200ER (43) 

777 300ER (6)

Total Heavy WB fleet    79

BA Orders and fleet changes        +18 777X orders

747's grounded 7/17/2020 -28 

777-200 retired over time     45    

777-300ER retired over time  6

Total Heavy WB needs for a change       41 to maintain current seating

                                        

Of course, current pandemic may cause a deviation downward in total passenger seats required.

BA net replacement additional needs are 41 777X or 787 (Mix) for any wide body sustainment plan which maintains its current fleet including the 28 just cancelled 747 in its current fleet as of yesterday. BA may order in the next two years a mix of 777-9X, 777-8X, and 787-10.