Max Wake-Up The Day After

Usually first landings of a first airplane type can invoke many images for everybody concerned, including investors. The 787 landed with much intensity for its innovation, and the 747-100 landed with much awe. However, the 737 Max landed the maker with much assurance. A strange condition emerged from all of the pomp and ceremony for the "Max first flight". The aviation world seemed to have shrugged.

Even though 4, 000 Boeing faithful stood in the Seattle rain applauding, where cameras clicked every frame of its takeoff and landing, there was a muted enthusiasm in the world of aviation. It became another 737 taking-off or landing every two seconds somewhere in the world. Boeing, apparently failed in getting world-wide Shock and Awe out of the Max first flight or even for its first landing (note some first flights don't even land on its landing gears).

All that can be said about first flight is it handled marvelously and was remarkably quiet in the cabin during its flight. The CFM engines purred. Perhaps that is how Boeing scripted the experience, and how it also tested out on the ground before first flight. Maybe Boeing is keeping a big secret before its first delivery to SWA. This bird has taken 50 years to build, test and fly after-all. The secret and the excitement is not found in Max's first flight, but in what the flight test equipment indicated when bolted to the 737 deck and reported to the "nerds-in- charge" about what just happened. The next year will change the 737 imperceptibly. You can say the Max will be maximized by December 2016.

·      Did the on-board test stations follow the Boeing Script of showing a 15% performance enhancement?

·      Does laminar flow technology make it better than the NEO?

·      Did the GE-CFM LEAP-1B engine pull/push the Max through and into single aisle Nirvana?  

These and many other astute questions will be answered, not from its first flight, but from months of testing following what was just kicked-off. In American football, the kickoff sailed out back of the end-zone and the 737 Max now starts on the twenty or twenty-five yard line depending on the rule imposed.

In the factory, slow then go, is the new norm. Both the Max and NG are going at a pace within the same space which inspires an opus. The Max, One note at a time pacing. The follow-on Max are to be produced very carefully in a slow time beat. Speed comes from careful production improvements not from seeking overly anxious production numbers. By the time Max first delivery is achieved, production excellence will meet the customer. 

The summer tests flight will really tell what Boeing has wrought. Boeing sales people can then say factual say things to potential customers in hushed tones. Sales teams say,"Where Testing is showing more like 17% improvement, shhh, don't let that out, it's between us!" The NEO already flew out to the customer and the MAX can undermine the Airbus early high ground with an optimal Max that is to follow.

The Max still remains a mystery after first flight, the longer it stays a mystery, the more the hype will build in the marketplace for the MAX. Sales will shadow the testing program, as it progresses through the tests. Sales will follow, as the NEO is in a fixed position of frozen production design, as the MAX can erode its lead.

Refine Enhance and Improve, The 737 Goes REI Into The World

The 737 is the moving target for Airbus. It has been around a long while. Making its first flight in April 1967. I had to get a calculator to figure out how far back the proof of concept flight was until yesterday, or about 49 years ago. If born in April 1967, and being a Boeing employee, you may be seeking a retirement plan adjustment very soon for optimizing your retirement's upcoming good fortune. The 737 started on the chalkboard in 1964, in the age of chalk, pencil and slide rulers. Those leading pilgrims have since passed. The post baby boomers had just come into the world. They are leading the Max 737 charge today.

The REI moniker is not for the Seattle area outdoor sporting goods seller, it's for the 737 maker, Boeing. The Max represents 50 plus years of developing the single aisle 737. 

Boeing has refined the 737 Max from the production floor up. It also has enhanced this model as found with new cockpit displays found in the world's other most advanced and modern aircraft (787). The Max is a symbol of improving on what works well after fifty years of progressions starting with CFM engine improvement.

The basic conceptualization of the Max, "if it works well don't reinvent", but just make it better. Boeing has turned a page in its playbook, and has not blinked from competitive swings, as it has kept its eye on the ball. The Max is an aircraft you will feel the difference as a passenger, notice the difference on corporate bottom lines, and refrain the experience with your fellow travelers.

All this is possible from the collective experience of fifty years and hundreds of thousands employees pouring those collective years of knowledge, skills and abilities into one airframe. The 737 Max represent its people and the sum of all its talents. You don't need another Dreamliner invention, you need another 737 having all that innovation applied from Boeing's 100,000 years of people experience.   

She Flies Like A Duck, Its Seattle After-all

The 737 Max did its nerd thing today in stormy weather. Being so busy on a Friday, I watched the replay on Boeing.com website. Cheers were heard from those in rain gear. The 737 Max is waterproof and can handle a wind chop on approach. It looks bigger than the NG version of the 737. It was the rain that did that optical on my senses. The engine sound was so-in-the-world of high sound frequency the rumble didn't exist. 

Maybe the bass was not turned on with the filming equipment, as it made me squirm a bit with an American Idol reference of being a little "pitchy". It achieved a hollow engine echo, as if a hair dryer was in your ear. These are my critiques about the flawless Max first flight on a stormy wind-chop day. Brave or confident is the program current stance. If it had been a 787 first flight, it would have never been launched on a day like this, but the Max has matured more than we may know, as it braved the storming gusts with success. The claim of quieter engines suffered from rainy conditions, and a strange audio settings on shrill. Tomorrow, the flying test schedule starts with more flights and for the next 12 months.

Max First Flight January 29, 2016

Rainy Day Sounds Of CFM Max Power

Signing -off with a quick and dirty analysis Just after diner.

Debbie Downer Boeing Stock Report

After sticking my neck out by saying Boeing will go North of 762 frames this year, they do a "Crazy Ivan and go South with a 740-745 prediction number for 2016.

This becomes a story of "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly". Starting with ugly to get it over with and then moving forward until reaching Good. I will explain my own thoughts on the matter. The Ugly was announced earlier when it was announced the 747-8i reduces production downward to 6 a year. A sign and a symbol the 747 has reached a final death spiral only to be saved by a weakened freight market even if it revives itself for making new orders. The Boeing hope and plan is to maintain 747 production long enough for freight to come back. This is getting ugly for the 747-8 concept.

The bad is found in the weak spot of Boeing's aspirations, it is in transition with two new models.  A production blemish will occur in 2016 and possibly lagging into 2017. Both the 737 Max and 777X family of aircraft are emerging, but the former aircraft, the 737 NG and the 777-300-ER have to keep churning out the door. They can't maintain the pace it has set from the optimal production days of the last five years. Until the 777X swings to delivery mode and the Max goes to market in 18 months, the Boeing production juggernaut is at a production dock for refurbishing. The year 2018 should bring Boeing production numbers back greater than 2015's numbers. No alarm is sounded on the production floor only the sounds of installing, implementing and improving production capability for new aircraft.  

The good well is just very good, the production lag for the transition of going to the best airplane manufacturer of the single aisle, and its large wide-body, the 777X. The Max first flight is for this Friday, January 29, 2016, and it will beckon the single aisle era forward with the best of the show. The "Transition" period slows production, but the 787 will make Boeing's day going forward. The Boeing story in 2016 will be about sales (regard to BBY). It is a constant unknown until the year ends. No prediction can made except by Blogging hopefuls and watchers of the aviation world. We only have production to measure with during the year. But Airbus can't make the production run yet meeting Boeing's diminished prediction of 740-745. Boeing will be the largest Aircraft manufacturer for another year in a row.  

Amazon Is Going For The 767 and It Should Lease 20

Amazon Dot Com maybe leasing 20, 767 as it found with UPS', and FedEx's business models are having the 767 a notion of a sweet deal. This is an Amazon deep-in-the-dealing news note coming from “Tweak Town”:

Amazon looks at leasing 20 Boeing 767s for air cargo duties

That would make the 767's order year very promising, if it is validated after negotiations are completed. All news information regarding potential Boeing purchases will be tracked on this "Winging It" theme of a "BBY". Fondly noted as, "Boeing's Big Year". My own sense tells me Boeing will handsomely book well beyond the 762 birds it delivered in 2015, thus making it a BBY. The FedEx book holds 49, 767's on order even as the UPS aspirations for booking 767’s are looking up towards Boeing's direction for freight equipment in its parcel business. In spite of rumors about the 767's death, they have been greatly exaggerated.

The MAX Week Keeps Kicking The Tires

Zack's say 100 MAX are on the griddle for what's cooking with Boeing's single aisle market. Even though the Max is competing with Airbus A320's, it also competing with Canadian aircraft maker Bombardier C300 model. Both competitors are eager and will be a Boeing challenge for winning the three way competition. Who knows maybe Randy Tinseth will swing the deal as it gains in Boeing's Big Year.

Boeing May Get Order for 100 Jets from Saudi Arabian Airline

"The Boeing Co. (BA - Analyst Report) is looking forward to secure an order from Flynas, Saudi Arabia's low-cost airline. The airline company is considering the purchase or lease of 60 jets over the next five years with an option for an additional 40 units.

The carrier is considering Airbus Group SE’s (EADSY - Snapshot Report) A320 Neo and Bombardier Inc.’s CS300 along with Boeing’s 737 Max. Flynas posted a profit in 2015 for the first time in its history, which was closely followed by this news. The carrier is expecting to take a final decision regarding the order by this year.”

Boeing's Red Headed "Step Child", The 757 Replacement

Boeing has gotten itself in a fix as Ollie looks at Stanley with disdain for his latest antic. The ever popular and longed for 757 replacement would solve this Boeing fix. Let us first examine the Airbus case before going in on Boeing's fix and a solution. Airbus has a fully extended the A-321 going to places the 737-9 can't quite reach. They have sold many more A-321's then what Boeing anticipated after the 737 Max -9 was announced. Boeing's secret weapon was retired from production, the 757.

Photo Credit:http://www.rowthree.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Laural-and-Hardy-560x373.jpg

The Boeing 737-900 isn't opening new customer doors, hence comes the argument in favor of the 757 replacement. Boeing current 737 line-up has a gap in its family of aircraft. Some may say a super single aisle compliment for the Max. Others may say a corvette class duo aisle for 200+ seats. The Corvette naming convention comes from a class of fighting ship with littoral functions within its surrounding oceans. Airspace isn't much different. Boeing needs a corvette class aircraft that can span moderate sea basins with ease. The 737-9 becomes stretched out for this purpose. The 757 replacement could fly a range of four to five thousand miles solving the problem.

The argument for Boeing that would make any sense is that such an aircraft would lend into selling more "?" aisle aircraft than anticipated, closing the gap the NEO has over the MAX in total sales numbers. A 757 replacement is centered on the Max family of aircraft having a dual aisle alignment going seven across at Maximum, yet it would have more resemblance to the MAX than the 787. 

This concept would not have a 787-8 or -9 girth but a muted 787 like shape at only 15 feet across instead of about 18 feet across. Further body design could go with a slight oval shape at the passenger seating level while adjusting for more comfort than cramming in more seats. Plastic body is another discussion. However plastic wings is a must have for its engines situated further off the ground than the Max. 

The major fear for aircraft framers, is that airline customers will buy the frame that can hold more passengers than designed, or for even what the human anatomy allows.  Having an extra thousand mile range on this "Corvette" must have some standardized rules imposed, based on the single flight duration capability the aircraft can travel for everyone's health. Greed is killing the cabin space and the passengers.

However, a counter to this troublesome condition of "airline passenger cramming", is designing an aircraft holding only so many seats for its space provided, or provide a regulation based on distance an aircraft can fly per passenger space by using its time in the air. Passenger safety issues comes to mind in my former days, an associate of mine from the government of Ontario, Ca. flew to a meeting we were having in Phoenix, AZ. I came from Idaho. The problem occurred on arrival. His five hours in cramped seating on a single aisle, caused his death. He got up from his cramped 31" pitch seat and he got to the motel, and then stroked and died from a blood clot in his leg. The doctors said, "He sat too long in a cramped condition causing his medical event.

The 757 replacement could make aviation industry waves by making it more difficult to squeeze more passengers in beyond the manufacturer's recommendations. I digress, and I apologize, but the point is making a whole new passenger class of flying from the model constraints itself. If you want to fly with 199 passenger squeezed in on a single aisle then go on a Max. If you want to fly with 210 passengers spread out a little then fly on a "Corvette class". 

This duo aisle MoM concept must lead to selling more single aisles derived from commonality factors from its family of aircraft, both the 737 and 787. The Boeing class concept of aircraft starts with the single aisle class of aircraft. The "Corvette Class" is not technically a medium wide body nor a single aisle experience, but it is truly unique for the passengers, and becomes another important tool for making money without any competition in the market place. The SWA airline model is single aisle only, but this could be a SWA breaker operating like a single aisle, but giving the passenger everything it needs in duo aisle fashion for longer trips.

NEO Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest Today

The Neo took-off and it landed about 35 minutes later with a load of passengers. Check out the cramp-on dimensions passengers enjoyed in the article below.

The 737 has a better than even chance of beating the NEO.

Airways News Brings You: the experience with video and sound.

Max First Flight Friday (FFF) First Delivery About 18 Months Out (update)

Boeing's Max 737 is about to fly out of the Renton barn over Lake Washington and beyond. Its tentative schedule is down to weather interruption or an incomplete checking it twice check mark. The Max is ready to fly today but the next four days preps the aircraft into a flawless sequence of aerobatic antics.

 

Airways News Photo Credit

Why should you watch? A good question for everybody. It's Boeing's first "Post 787 commercial initial test flight". Even the 777X has not seen a production floor. The KC-46 was watched by aviation nerds with streaming, making a military flight tests of a 767 frame. The Max is a reconfigured 737 NG with Boeings off-the-shelf technology employed in its construction. It is a make or break first test flight of the MAX, Boeing’s answer to single aisle travel, and worthy for all to view.

Just like mad scientists, Boeing has taken pieces of corporate accomplishment and made the MAX out of whole Boeing cloth. The new engine with a 68" opening is considerably more efficient than the NG CFM power plant. Even though with the A321, the NEO has about 10" larger engine inlet. Airbus CFM efficiency comes more from the advantages of a larger diameter than what Boeing has done with the Max. Little nuances for the Max had to make up ground having a 68" diameter CFM engine. The main contributors are internal engine parts configurations, Max body design, and wing placement of the engine.

The wing placement suggest moving the engine forward or back on the wing a few inches for finding optimal efficiency. The Boeing body sculpting and aero design enhancement such as engine cowling and/or air spoilers contribute for making the smaller diameter engine work better. CFM has gone to extended lengths bringing forward new ceramic technology, not found in the NEO's CFM configured engine. Adding all things considered makes this test flight much more important than what current press attention has provided. This first flight is the seminal moment in the competition for single aisle supremacy!

• Did Boeing get it right? 
• Can they catch Airbus in the order book with the Max? 
• Are Airbus customers’ suckers for not waiting for the Boeing Answer?

·      These questions could be answered at the below Boeing Link:

Boeing.com Max FridayFirstFlight

·      Watch for Boeing.com test time changes.

Important Never-mind notice:
"Boeing had said it planned to make the flight in the first quarter of 2016. Like all first flights, the 737 MAX takeoff could be delayed by weather or other conditions, Boeing said."

All are important and valid questions, where Friday First Flight (FFF) starts answering these questions in public. Boeing has the answers in its development program notes, but the public has not seen the proof of concept brought to Life. If FFF "Max" has a streaming web link I'll be there on the link. 

Otherwise, I’ll have to wait for the underwhelmed press giving its blah, blah second hand. I would like to see first flight! The mystery is why is Boeing so low key on this test flight? Is the risk factor raised higher than the 787? More questions that will be answered on Friday, January 29, 2016.

Looking Back Then looking Forward

Farnborough is in the books June 2014 and some spectacular comments lend to further study in 2016.

Winging IT Link 2014

Steve Udvar-Hazy was given his usual welcome to the Boeing chalet...

"He said that Boeing should be able to sell the Dreamliner at peak production rates of 160 to 180 airplanes a year for at least 15 years, assuming a stable global economy, which would mean deliveries could exceed 2,500 aircraft."

Some kind of calculation came off Hazy's magnificent spreadsheet with all the financial tools implement before speaking.

Evidently Steve flew the 787-9 prior to Farnborough 2014, and was duly impressed as he remarked, "it is a magnificent airplane"

This brings Winging It to the topic at hand will the 787 actually take-off as Steve Udvar-Hazy has stated. This is quite a series of comments coming from a Boeing/Airbus customer. He has a vision for 160 to 180 787's a year at peak production during its lifetime cycle. That statement takes us forward as to what the 787 is capable of in the world market place.

Randy Tinseth (VP Boeing Marketing) has his own data flattering the Boeing Stock Holders, but he always has a realistic side to his comments allowing for wiggle room during a down order years as 2015 has just completed. I can trust his vision for the market with relative assurance his ball park numbers are in line with what Boeing will achieve going forward.  His continuous presentation found in the Boeing outlook chapter is for those who are tasked with gauging opportunity for its own business models.

Boeing is in the Market For growing 2,000 more wide bodies by 2034 than current 2014 inventory of about 1620 and expanding to 3,800 by 2034. This does not take into account inventory churning when replacing older equipment, it only represents the Boeing view on airline growth of medium sized wide bodies needed for keeping up with passenger growth. During the twenty year span there will be many retired medium wide bodies like the 767 or older 777-200 for replacement which is not included in the 3,800 number. The 3,800 is the size of the medium wide body market by 2034, not the number of medium sized wide bodies to be built by 2034 from 2014. The number of medium wide bodies from 2014 to 2034 for the market is a far greater number than the net change of going from 1620 to 3800. There should be an estimation of about 3,000 or more new wide bodies sold between the years 2014-2034 exceeding the net change number for its growth. 

Steve Udvar-Hazy view is very plausible and conservative when he says between 160 to 180 787's a year will be needed during future periods. Boeing is tasked with upping or lowering production with little interruption for its capability to produce the 787. Even with the Max/NG 737 production, Boeing's intent designs its production floors with the Just-in-time philosophy as the ebb and flow of ordering is smoothed on the production floor. 

The Boeing future focus does not rely on an Airbus like backlog of greater numbers of single aisle aircraft awaiting delivery. It is more a symbiotic relationship of Production and market. Boeing intends on selling the Max at a greater volume once it flies. Right now Boeing is at 3,000 Max awaiting delivery and Airbus has gone beyond 4,000 NEOs. A forty-sixty split in the market is the Airbus lead. Boeing will become the tortoise in this race and not make any missteps in order to regain parity.