The F-35 Has Fly Paper On Its Wings

Every journalist who uses its craft to express how intelligent they are writing negatively about the F-35 and how useless it is. Well, I've been reading too! That makes me smarter than a fifth grader except the pay falls way short of journalistic adversaries when it comes to the F-35. But reading counts for something except I haven't gone to all those airshows making me an expert. I once read about an F-16 pilot who beat an electronically hobbled F-35. I also read about its problems, lower airspeed. You know airspeed makes it so much like a shooting star from seventy years ago. It can't vector up or down or left or right. It isn't a good fighter for airshow purposes. It can't go faster than Mach 1.6.

So I asked myself how pointless is that? No supercruise, no nine G turning and certainly glitching is its most prominent weapon of choice. The US Airforce, in response to its lack fourth generation constructs, has sprayed sticky stuff on its wings so the journalist has something to say how intelligent they are about the F-35 and that's their story and they are sticking to it. The flypaper application to its F-35 wings gives journalistic sticking power. They have been "boofed" and it shows.

Every journalist who uses its craft to express how intelligent they are writing negatively about the F-35 and how useless it is. Well, I've been reading too! That makes me smarter than a fifth grader except the pay falls way short of journalistic adversaries when it comes to the F-35. But reading counts for something except I haven't gone to all those airshows making me an expert. I once read about an F-16 pilot who beat an electronically hobbled F-35. I also read about its problems, lower airspeed. You know airspeed makes it so much like a shooting star from seventy years ago. It can't vector up or down or left or right. It isn't a good fighter for airshow purposes. It can't go faster than Mach 1.6.

The whole point of the F-35 is that is not an all-weather, all-purpose and all everything Joint air-to-air fighter. It was built to house computers and sensors. Those same sensors and computers that were not operational when it flew past an F-16 in testing. The F-16 could fly circles around the F-35 and shoot it down. It just beat a bi-plane called an F-35 and it showed. It gave Russia and China something to crow about.  We can build "a super stealth bi-plane that goes Mach 2+ with supercruise in its engines. 

"Watch! What we can do at a Szechwan airshow were people clap in unison as directed?"

"All we did was hang pepper about its snout and it worked great."

The PA system echoes, "The F-35 can't go Mach 1.71 nor can it turn in a tighter circle than a circle can be tight. We have supercruise where without going to afterburner. We can get into harm's way faster than an F-35", and so goes the droning on by the intelligentsia with a journalistic paycheck. It has broken down 5,283 times by a clear mile so goes any sensible reading expert. 

So! "I put together some talking points what the Airforce has really built that everyone has missed the point on during the last dozen years and it’s not about invisibility.

·      The F-35 is a flying computer which should not vector here or there.

·      The F-35 wants a milli-second advantage because the computers work in milliseconds.

·      The advantage comes from its weapons truck not a trick pony at the airshow.

·      New weapons are built every six months which are plugged into airframes. 

·      Its the missile systems and computers doing the fighting.

·      The F-35 needs to hide like a concealed weapon

After examining these talking points, the F-35 quickly takes shape. Hide and shoot like a gang member. Marching as a formation doesn't win the fight. The year 1776 proved this point when the British fought against the Patriots at Concorde  It was a long and deadly walk back to Boston for those British troops. American forces have been behaving that way since the US revolutionary war. The F-35 doesn't want to dog-fight at all, otherwise, it would be missing the point. The Art of War is in deception and the F-35 program has fooled so many by its perceived flaws.  

Note this:

·      There are many F-35 problems in its development

·      Computers have upgrades, please turn on your computer and see what upgrades load up today.

·      It isn't a fourth Generation fighter with a club

·      It's a fifth-generation commanding shootist that hides really well.

·      Thinking is what it is built for.

·      Getting to the battlespace makes it more of a truck than a sports car.

·      Being in the pole position isn't necessary since it already punched your ticket at the gate.

Once you discern its specialty then you get the F-35. The best question is how many are needed and a follow-on question what's next?

Backlog Indicators Boeing - Airbus 9/30

As a guide to Aviationphiles, the below charts show relative backlog between Boeing and Airbus for the period ending 9/30/2018. Notes below this opening are for your convenience, indicates Boeing is slowing closing the backlog gap in the single-aisle category. Boeing having 4,714 units to deliver as compared with the Airbus tally of 6,301units. The $billions in comparison give Airbus the relative dollar backlog lead. It is also important to note Airbus absorbed the Bombardier single-aisle backlog as part of its accounting lump totals. The also hides Boeing's progress with its single-aisle gap with Airbus who has a very strong backlog for A321's where Boeing has answered with newly offered 737-Max 9's and 10's. If Boeing can add an Embraer single-aisle count to its book through a merger, currently in the works, and it continues to book the 737 Max at the same pace it has over the last couple of order cycles, then it will catch Airbus single-aisle backlog in this class. Boeing is within striking distance of meeting the Airbus, $170 billion, single-aisle order advantage when all things are considered.

Wide body is Boeing's strong suit. It beats Airbus in backlog dollars by $30 Billion. When The Embraer merging is complete and using this $30 dollar WB buffer, Boeing should have caught Airbus in both total units and dollar value for its respective backlogs. Enjoy the numerical comparisons, as this is only an estimation using dynamic order and production books while using some assumptions when data is not available which may slightly differ from Boeing's own reporting. All data is based on both the Airbus and Boeing's reporting websites ending 9-30-2018.

Boeing and Airbus Order and Delivery Notes Through 9-30-2018

·      Boeing nets 631 net orders for YTD  all types Airbus

·      Airbus trails Orders YTD with 311 net orders

·      Boeing exceeds 100 net YTD orders for the 787 totaling 104

·      Airbus slips further with its A-350 only netting 36 ordered YTD

·      Boeing books a net YTD  448 single-aisle 737 with a preponderance for ordering the 737, Max.

·      Airbus books only a net of 198 Single-aisle YTD

What does this all mean? Airbus is in second place on the last straight stretch. In horse races, a well strategic race will have the second place horse pass the lead by a nose at the finish line. Airbus typically sandbags orders (holds back) for a December 31 announcement. Last year it dumped hundreds and hundreds of orders in the announcement bin in the 2017 eleventh hour. If Boeing can retain some orders for a December announcement the game is afoot as Sherlock Holmes quips.

The bragging rights of most orders is a tenuous proposition. Many an order could be rated as risky, as many an airline will cease to exist before receiving the first delivery on its mature order. It is imperative to classify order quality and make a risk assessment for all orders booked. An example would be if an ACME airline order is riskier than a United Airline order for reaching full completion. This is an unreported condition and does not contribute to Bragging rights at the end of any given year. Thus a rating system for orders should be based on order risk which can be both subjective and objective through a proven metric table.

The airplane buying metric or indicators would include financial ratings from market success in an airline's business plan including an analysis with its history for achieving its objectives. So one could see it becomes very complicated analyzing a batch of indicators on strength of an order book. Those indicators used could be a subjective choice in itself. Therefore, the current market status is the only sensible way to bet on the actual winning horse and Boeing has a strong lead for the 2018 orders race. It is a foregone conclusion Boeing will win the world's largest airplane maker this year as its product has just started to hit high gear after a production slump mid-year. Airbus has too many problems itself on the production floor as its suppliers are having some production woes on its own.

Airbus needs about another 600 net orders to catch Boeing by year's end, while Boeing could amass only 300 additional new orders by December 31, 2018, and beat Airbus just the same. The race for orders is wide open while deliveries may take a hurricane to stop Boeing winning that battle.

The F-35 May Not Be Invisible But...

When I was a youngster I played in the basement of a big building with interlocking rooms and hallways. It was a massive game of hiding and seeking with my brother. The F-35 was over hyperbole for its "invisibility". However, the black room theory is better suited for the F-35. All your senses are needed to find it. However, all the F-35 senses have your number. Who will win? By sure capability, the F-35 will. In that black room, I had to use hearing and not much more to find my adversary. The F-35 could be better than a bat flying in the dark battlespace. Invisibility is a strong description, but very "limited" detection is the best reference for the F-35 limited vulnerabilities. If the fastest jet pilot reads this, they are already dead by line two in italics above.

Hearing only a moving chair in a dark room becomes a bad assumption in a dark room. Looking at ghosts on a radar screen is a bad technique for defeating an F-35. The F-35 is the darkroom warrior with super sensitive windows to its armaments. The adversary only has hearing in that dark room while the F-35 has its digital number for any of its adversaries, which is processed by a supercomputer, (at the speed of light) from its multiple layers of sensors. The F-35 can only go mach 1.6. But its computer's goes much faster than a speeding missile. The F-35 pilot only "Trusts in Processing", and bam, an F-35 missile finds its target in that proverbial dark room.

Remembering A 797 Airplane

Boeing a long time ago suggest building the "Middle of the Market" airplane. It would be somewhere between a 737 and 787 aircraft, tending towards a dual aisle composition. What happened? It's not been announced, nor has the press covered anything 797 for a few months and that's just fine with Boeing. It has said all it's going to say for some time. Lessons learned from the 787 programs allowed Airbus to dampen Boeing's aspirations as it quickly announced its A-350 just after the 7E7 came to the Boeing show and tell at an airshow near Paris.

The silence for the 797 ideas is deafening. It almost looks like Boeing has purposefully changed its tactics towards Airbus by not announcing and let Airbus sell copious numbers of A-321's over the next five years. The suspicion grows it is building a 797 in secret from its CAD machines. The computers are sophisticated enough to design and fly a concept on a big computer screen, in some kind of simulation alter reality. Now Boeing has probably already done a 797 computer mock-up with its vast proven technologies, so the trial and error portion has been skipped. Boeing just needs to build a flying example in a warehouse near the space needle.

Boeing has lined up at least 500 orders from customers loyal to anything Boeing. Naming "Launch Customers" are a bigger problem than any engine selection. About getting an engine is another step progression. Boeing has the Leap for the 737 and the GE for its 787. Those companies are not standing still as Boeing would be in 40,000 to 50,000 thrust range for a super lean burning and quieter engine than what is currently flying. Selecting an engine is as difficult as selecting a launch customer.

The process remains behind closed doors and Boeing will not utter a thing until it can hang an engine on a prototypical 797. It already has a plan to stuff the "Bus" with all things Boeing in a plug and play fashion from its design Bureau, but it needs time for its ultimate strategy of gaining five years on Airbus from its order campaign. When Boeing announces the 797 it will be in Paris and it just might fly-in for a look-see, for all the customers to be amazed.

Airbus will counter but it will be five years too late. The airplane "other-shoe" will have dropped. The only way Boeing can steal the market back is through a surprise reveal at the biggest stage. But that is for risk takers and Boeing is risk adverse except if it called a 787. However,  the 797 is put back into its box for another day. Boeing is on a rampant errand on a white steed and it will lance the windmill one more time with its 797. Risk aversion is job one on the CAD machine. Once all 797 problems have been shredded the announcement will follow allowing Airbus some time in a thoughtful repose for a reflexive move. The wind won't shift for Airbus because that lance is stuck firm tilting its aspiration out of the picture. Don Quixote has a plan. 

Boeing 787 3RD Quarter 2018 Recap

Boeing absorbed 9 more 787-9's from United today, as announced. Not knowing whether it's in September or October the below chart includes the latest 787 numbers I have without eventual validation.

 The quarter over quarter tracker for 2018 recaps the 787 year-to-date at 105 net 787's ordered.

Below are yearly program recaps including 2018 YTD orders and deliveries as of September 30, additionally, it includes YTD compilations for all program years completed.

Boeing Wins The TX-50 Trainer Competition

Boeing has just won another big get with its Trainer-X program. Over 351 trainers will be built by Boeing beating both Lockheed/KAI and Leonardo of Italy with its T-100 offering. It's a 9.2 billion dollar deal where it could possibly build many more hundreds going into the future.

Boeing Wins Big Chopper Battle

Boeing will take an order for 84 of its MH-139 in a co-shared program with Leonardo. Below is a snippet of the win and copter replacing the aged Huey's from the Vietnam war era.

The 787-10 Is A Graphic Center Of Travel

Airline strategies have expanded both ends of the scale. Ultra Long Range to regional travel. Those extremes are marked by the A-350 ULR flown by Singapore Airlines and the 737 flown by Southwest Airlines. A graphics display is rendered, intersecting passenger load, distance, and market density. During the formative years of education a class, most of us readers endured, was geometry. Lines intersect an optimal value. This is what Boeing has done with its 787-10. It's not a long thin route hopper like the Singapore A350-ULR nor is it a 737 Max 8 flying to Las Vegas from Minneapolis. It is optimized for 330 passengers going 6,400 miles. 

Most routes travel the world within 6,400 miles and most passenger densities fall within that band. You may call the 787-10 a generalist, meeting the business model of most airlines. The 777X and the A-350ULR are specialists with a limited thin market. Connecting Singapore with NewYork is a very long thin route. However, Singapore Airlines has ordered 49 787-10's and taken delivery for 6 of its type. It has only ordered seven A350-900 ULR's, hence the long thin route commitment and it will launch its first A-350-900ULR this week to Newark, NJ. 

Singapore happens to be in a 5,000-mile circle of the world's most dense population centers. EVA air has ordered 18 787-10's residing in Taiwan opposite of China.

The coincidence of 787-10 capability and population density concentration is no accident. These two airlines have ordered almost 40% of the 787-10's currently booked by Boeing. When the Emirates order is booked by 40 more 787-10 the balance will rise to 51% of the 787-10 ordered by three airlines. Singapore, EVA, and Emirates, totaling 107 787-10 airframes out of 211 787-10 booked.

The real potential is the whole world where 80% of airline travel resides within a  6,400-mile route circle. The long thin route is rapidly becoming saturated and both Boeing and Airbus will want more orders sooner rather than later. However, the market lies within the 6,400-mile route circle and Boeing has that covered as it prepares to deliver 787-10's to United Airlines sooner rather than later.

Expect more 787-10 orders by Airlines plying European airspace. It would safe to say the order book count for the 787-10 may rise to 300 units instead of its current 171 numbers during 2019. Airlines that may be targeted for a 787-10 order have already been contacted and these may include Delta and American to name a few.

Board Room Question: Will The 787 Deliver 144 in 2018?

I would say no up front but... there are certain objectives to consider.

• Will Hainen find finances for its 787's that are ready for delivery?
• Can Boeing make 14 787 a month during October November, and December of 2018?
• Does Boeing have a packed parking lot of 787 at this moment? 

So far Boeing has delivered 94 of its 787 far short of 144. More like 50 short of that number at this point. If Boeing gets its customer, Hainan Airlines, to have a delivery by end of September, the number will stack up like this. It has already delivered 6 out of 15 scheduled for September. It needs another 9 delivered by the end of the month for 15 total, and Hainan is the lynchpin. If it does occur, then Boeing has only to deliver in the next ninety days or so, another 41 787's by December 31, 2018.

If Boeing produces 14 a month through December it can meet its goal of 144 units delivered during 2018. A slightly lumpy production record suggests Boeing needs to drain its parking lot of 787's waiting for completion and delivery. The recent Hurricane Florence took a little momentum out of Boeing's sails but is just now getting back on its production track. Fourteen a month delivered is possible but unlikely.

Not having an actual parking lot count makes this a difficult call but judging by Everett and Charleston's current parking lot valet, it is safe to say Boeing has at least six frames awaiting customers not mentioned or named Hainan.

The chances of Boeing meeting these aggressive objectives is a fifty-fifty proposition. Given Boeing's capability, it is a do-able achievement, but given external haphazard conditions, Boeing is at a high risk of delivering only in the 130's rather than 144 787 units this year. Every day is worth watching the delivery numbers as the Boeing ship of production and delivery slowly gains speed. It has the ability to make its goal but time has narrowed the risk factors in it not achieving a fourteen a month delivery goal in the fourth quarter.