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Tuesday, February 13, 2018

January Boeing Order Count Slight of Hand

Boeing posted its order count for January 31, 2018. Missing are the 14 747-8F's ordered by UPS announced in January by press release and a mysterious 17 unit deletion for the 737 Max just after 17 Max were ordered at the end of January leaving one Max BBJ and 10 P-8's for military acquisition and totaling 11 units net for January (whew). It may not be correct regarding model disposition at this time, but Boeing had a confusing first month of 2018 and Winging It "hopes" to have it corrected by Boeing's own data. Below is the Order Chart with Boeing notations. Tell me if it doesn't work for you!


Friday, February 9, 2018

The 787-300 Mysteriously Turns Into A 797

Remember when Boeing thought it something going right when it offered the 787-300 only to promptly cancel that Idea and focus on the 787-8? The 787-300 was supposed to carry  about what a 797 would carry. It was supposed to fly what a 797 would fly. So What happened to the 787-300 as ANA only bought in on the 787-300 with 13 copies ordered. Like any fine wine the grapes are the same and the process of making alcoholic content is the same but what makes a great wine?  Time or in Boeing's case timing. The 787-300 concept was an abject failure partially because it flew just over 3,000 miles and airlines were enamored with 7,000 plus miles at the time. The 797 is promised with 5,000 miles. I would suspect it will go dual aisle like the 787-300. I also expect it will only go 7 seats across. It probably go 250 seats maximum while a 270 seater Boeing mentioned is a bridge too far for it is attempt at this time.

This ultimate gap filler would supplant any 757 aficionados or 767 die-hards with  medium airport fittings as high tech gap filler. Boeing learned some lessons during the early stages of the 787 stumbles. The 787-300 was non starter. The 797 is going to be what the 787 family couldn't be. It won't stretch to 337 passenger or fly just to 3,000 miles as Boeing once offered. But it will have two aisle because it has to not compete with the A321 NEO. It must define its own class better than what Airbus does for its customers with the A-321. Two aisle is that start that assures Qantas a fast turn around time under 35 minutes. Alan Joyce of Qantas came out of the Singapore Air Show with a big smile. Joyce will get his sunset aircraft with a gap filler to boot from Boeing. It will turn the far east on its ear so to speak and Qantas will be at the front of that line.

The Qantas order backlog with its 787-9's options will be turned into extra long range sunset busters during a Farnborough order book rally for the yet to be announced 797. The whole point is not Qantas or for Boeing's sales leader, Randy Tinseth but East Asia's market place. Qantas is grabbing  position on what will be a Boeing order onslaught. Airbus is waiting to see what happens first before it dives in with a counter punch. The A321 is too successful for an Airbus blink until the market reacts.

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

The 797 Is More Than A Gap Filler

Boeing's idea is for a gap filling 797 which bridges a market hole from single aisle to the 787 family of aircraft. Natural performance numbers suggests a 5,000 mile range and up to 270 passengers though I doubt it would push the upper passenger seats. In a sales pitch, it would sensibly promote around a 220-250 seat range. Alan Joyce who is looking at A320 renewals in its Qantas fleet with an addition of A321 NEO's is pushing Boeing to the breaking point for announcing a 797 offering sometime in 2018. I would still suggest Farnborough Air Show is the proper moment for the 797 announcement. It sounds sooner rather than later something is coming from the Boeing concept file.

Boeing cannot wait for another A321 NEO sale before it could announce a 797. It will have lost too much program thrust for its 797 take-off. A sensible projection is Boeing has a firm body and wing design in hand for its 797 gap filler. It also knows it will create synergy for mature programs from the 737 to the 787. It might even change Allan Joyce's mind about ordering A321 NEO's or replacing its vast fleet of A-320's by flipping to the 737 Max's. If Boeing gets Embraer it will also open the Australian door for 130 seats and below market coming from a Boeing/Embraer product. Airbus will be pushing Bombardier product on all its current single aisle customers.

The pressure is mounting on Boeing to pull the 797 trigger as it would lose further ground to Airbus if doing nothing. It needs the gap filler as a catalyst for other product in Boeing's own plans. Embraer commercial will be a Boeing partnership which will bring Boeing avionics to its aircraft matching Boeing's own single aisle avionics up through the 777X program. Alan Joyce is playing both Airbus and Boeing at this time. It claims a limit on its financial resources so any decision must fit its purchasing capability. That being said, Qantas is seeking an advantage with one maker over the other throughout its fleet. 

At the Singapore airshow, Joyce's favorable expressions towards Boeing only signals the game is not over yet. However, Boeing won't redirect its own offerings for just one customer like Qantas. Remember when Qantas ordered a boatload of 787's and then backed out later. Joyce remarked later, he is not yet convinced the 787 is an answer for Qantas having taken in 8 787-9's, which could just be leverage language for Boeing's position with Qantas. Even though he has been flying the 787-8's (11) with Jetstar, a Qantas subset. Joyce knows exactly what the 787 can do while saying "he is not yet convinced about the 787-9". It represents some kind of jet blast from Joyce at this time.  It is not likely he will flip Boeing for Airbus, but nothing is impossible in today's world of aircraft selling and buying. If Boeing announces the 797 this summer, then Qantas may renew its old A-320 fleet with the 737 Max, add the 797, and buy more 787-9's at a heavily discounted price from Boeing. This is all pre Farnborough posturing by Qantas. A big Boeing day is coming during 2018.   

Friday, February 2, 2018

Today UPS Bought 14 More 747-8F's


All along Boeing contended the life of the 747 depended on the freight business not passenger service for its future. Today, UPS helped the Boeing claim along buy cashing in its 14 options for the 747-8F. In 2016,  UPS ordered a staggering 14 747-8F's optioning for 14 more of its type. Today was a firming day for those option as the news reported. Whether it happened in January or February 2018 will soon be revealed in Boeing's monthly orders and delivery updates on its website.

What this means?  Is the topic of this short discussion. Boeing has factory capacity for four more years at a 6 a year 747 production rate. All those engineers can now update resumes and contribute towards its unemployment accounts before any near term lay-off occurs which now seems a distant thought on the factory floor. Boeing has four more years for finding more freight customers for its 747-8F's. Over time, the cycle will bend towards Boeing's freight business direction again as the world's economies ebb and flow the stock markets.

Boeing has bought time for its other programs. It has 747 engineers in its hip pocket for anything pending on future accomplishing. Plant capacity is held in reserve as it builds 28 more 747's. A call will be made by 2020 for launching something new as an always improving business model expands its portfolio towards a 777-10X or a 797 NMA. Booth those concepts are now waiting the competition out. It won't go first like it did with the 787. Airbus blinked with a A321-LR. But it is also holding cards as long as it wants as customer buy the A321 in a continuing flow. An observation for any gambler, is timing, once the horses are loaded at the gate. 

Boeing wants an Airbus A321 LR in test mode before it launches an NMA.  Airbus wants its rendition of an NMA springing from an A-330 down sizing, which will be drawn in a hurry going to to market as a Boeing beater. 

Its rapidly turning into a tit for tat airplane building world as Boeing spits at Bombardier and hugs Embraer in a fit. In this slug fest, "a customer" wants to end up as a winner with better products and mechanisms for beating its own competition. The passenger just wants a seat that can hold 190 lbs in comfort. The 17" wide affair is for third world sensibilities, where blue collar working travelers are faced with recline issues and no wifi. The shoulder roll works only for 90 minutes in a 10 hr flight. Colored lighting is a small benefit for contortionist who insist on flying to Singapore and back to LA.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Airports Need A Theme Park Mentality

Can every airport or hub become a "Pirates of The Caribbean" ride? And... what's wrong with that?

For your airfare you gain access to the airports pavilions, food court's and "rest areas". Want to stay the snow storm? No problem as there may be sleeping hovels with showers included just past the TSA gate. Early attempts on club lounges for first class passengers was on  the right track. Also known as Sky Lounges. The next great hub will amaze travelers with shops and entertainment venues dotting the concourses near your airline gate. 

Imagine a two hour-lay over interrupted by a final boarding announcement over the PA system. Not to worry, an airport concierge has your GPS location  and vibrates the heck out of your wrist just fifteen minutes before take-off warning. Its time enough to pull away from your entertainment venue and go straight to the boarding line only feet away from what ever entertainment preoccupying your senses.

Its not all fantasy yet, but it will appear at the next airport renovation, centered on passenger pallets who are walking with credit cards.There are so many ideas pioneered by Disney, Six Flags or Universal who may opt-in for treating airport prisoners with a plethora of food, fantasy, and fun functions. Its just a matter  of time for making the Airport hub the destination along the way. In fact an all-nighter lay-over becomes the point.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Boise ID Is A Great Fit For Airplane Making

Boeing has several  decisions to make during 2018. One is whether to build or not to build a New Medium Aircraft often referred as the 797. The airplane is a shoe horn fit between the 737 Max 10 and the 787-8. Its counter part, Airbus, indicates making add-on's to its own A321 NEO as a quick and dirty response for anything market gap filing. It would quickly stretch  and bend the A321 for more fuel and passenger space where Boeing would make a clean sheet design different from its own largest single aisle example from the 737 Max 10 family of aircraft.

The mid sized cities in America are now in the competition of wooing Boeing into its zip code for an airplane making adventure. The Northwest and  Washington State  has a great advantage over other towns across North America. Spokane, WA is an active suitor for the 797 program if announced. Moses Lake could fill its Eastern Wa hole with a factory no one could even notice from the freeway drive-by. The one city within the five hundred mile circle from Seattle is Boise, ID and it has a surprising chance.

Boise is a clean sheet location having infrastructure available for building the Boeing 797. A middle American town having great core unmatched by big city taxes, congestion and life style penalties. It the open space version of a Seattle park system. The different is millions of acres of mountains, deserts and canyons for which Seattle could not have even if Mt Rainier blew its top.

Boise State University (BSU) is not one of those sandstone eastern schools citing two hundred years of tradition as its main talking point but has become a metro school where the world market changes and new building go up for teaching students how to lead those changes. Since the IT world has turned the world upside down Many IT based companies have come to Boise. Micron Technology, Hewlett Packard and recently intuit (T-Sheets). BSU has partnered  with those businesses as it is in the business of making trained graduates with western work ethics who end up making these anchor companies succeed. The work force in Boise is more than competent for any Boeing venture. operation.

The city area is larger than Spokane at 650,000 people and has open space surrounding the metropolitan area in abundance. One area directly south of the airport is an open space for more air traffic expansion. The outlying southern Owyhee region would rival any of Nevada's  testing secret areas. Idaho doesn't have lake beds like Nevada but it does have privacy for hundreds of miles and immediate connections with military operation at Mountain Home AFB and Gowan Field ANG in Boise. Boise has a consistent and convenient juxtaposition with its other tests locations. Moses Lake, and Glendive MT. The railroad comes right to the Airport or any other industrial location in the greater treasure valley as a spur line built out by only a few miles, Union Pacific. Boise is a technology breeding ground and is rapidly gaining prominence as a  business leader in the region. 

A Boeing project like the 797 would be a low cost risk with a guaranteed workforce at hand with any union affiliations. The land is cheap and taxes are on the low side as compared with every other area in the US. A move to Boise would surprise the aviation world as Boeing would catch another Dream with 797 project. The location is ideal from its centrally located position on the Northwest map. 

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Changing The World's Navies One F-35B at A Time

Like every Swiss Army Knife, a military can't figure out what it is good for its battle plan until put on a desert island exploring new military options. The F-35 is currently on that deserted island as military planners discover how good the F-35 really can be.  It will change naval military procurement around the world once the F-35 completes its first battle from an LHA ship like the USS America (LHA-6).

The British new QE carrier just completed its sea trials before receiving its first F-35B  displacing about 65,000 tons. It will exclusively use the F-35B as its fighter aircraft from the deck. The USS America assault ship is about 45,000 tons and will carry a substantial number of F-35B's on deck. Somewhere in the middle of 45 to 65 thousands tons is the perfect small nation strike carrier for all occasions. It would be  a flexible and can be replicated better than big nation carriers such as United States of America. The US Marines caught on early with its naval contingent of ships like the Wasp  and America.

Long has the Marine debate of having an LHA with a well deck or hanger deck. It has smaller versions, with the LSD and LPD designation. The LSD has a well deck and the LPD has a Hanger deck starting from big garage doors near the middle of the ship. 

A well deck version is what conflicts the Marines when defining its missions. The well deck area is a hollowed out area with an opening at the stern of the ship for landing craft egress and ingress to the ship. It can be flooded for landing craft  making a direct entry into the ocean or store landing equipment during transition to a hot spot with a an ocean view. LSD's and LPD's would support an invasion with the LHA as the led ship of this Marine flotilla. It's a matter of F-35B applications in battle space that will change ship designs into the future.

Below are the acronym designations and equipment types from the ship.

LSD: Landing Ship Dock: Landing craft from well deck, Helicopters is less number than a LHA; a contingent of Marine troops would travel with the ship.

 USS Tortuga (LSD 46)  16,500 Tons
Image result for LSD Landing ship dock

USS Tortuga (LSD-46)
USS Tortuga (LSD-46) in February 2001, off the coast of the Caribbean island of Curacao.
USS Tortuga (LSD-46) in February 2001, off the coast of the Caribbean island of Curacao.
History
Ordered:26 November 1984
Laid down:23 March 1987
Launched:15 September 1988
Commissioned:17 November 1990
Homeport:Little Creek, Virginia
Motto:Tough, Tall, Tenacious
Status:in active service
Badge:USS Tortuga LSD-46 Crest.png
General characteristics
Displacement:
  • 11,471 tons (light)
  • 16,568 tons (full)
Length:610 ft (190 m)
Beam:84 ft (26 m)
Draft:21 ft (6.4 m)
Propulsion:4 Colt Industries, 16-cylinder diesel engines, 2 shafts, 33,000 shp (25 MW)
Speed:20+ knots (37+ km/h)
Boats & landing
craft carried:
LCACs or 21 LCM-6s
Troops:Marine detachment: 402 + 102 surge
Complement:22 officers, 391 enlisted
Armament:

LPD: Landing Platform Dock: Designed for Helicopters with hanger bay for Maintenance.

Landing Platform Dock, 25,300 Tons San Antonio Class, 10 Each built. Hanger Deck Top Mid Ship

Image result for landing platform dock



USS San Antonio and USS New York in June 2011.
Class overview
Builders:Huntington Ingalls Industries (formerly Northrop Grumman Ship Systems)
Operators:United States Navy
Preceded by:
Succeeded by:N/A—current authorized amphibious transport dock line
Cost:
  • $1.602 billion (ave. for class, FY2012)[1]
  • $2.021 billion (last ship, FY2012)[1]
Built:2000–2017 (forecast)[1]
In commission:2006–present
Building:1
Planned:12
Completed:11
Active:11
General characteristics [2]
Type:Amphibious transport dock
Displacement:25,300 t (full)
Length:684 ft (208 m)
Beam:105 ft (32 m)
Draft:23 ft (7.0 m), full load
Propulsion:Four sequentially turbocharged marine Colt-Pielstick diesel engines, two shafts, 41,600 shp
Speed:In excess of 22 knots (25 mph; 41 km/h)
Boats & landing
craft carried:
Complement:
  • Crew: 28 officers, and 333 enlisted men
  • Landing force: 66 officers, and 633 enlisted men
Sensors and
processing systems:
AN/SPS-48G, AN/SPQ-9B[1]
Electronic warfare
& decoys:
AN/SLQ-32[1]
Armament:
Aircraft carried:Launch or land up to two MV-22 Ospreytilt-rotor aircraft simultaneously with room to place four MV-22s on the flight deck and one in the hangar deck.





Wikipedia chart credit
History
United States
Name:America
Namesake:United States
Awarded:1 June 2007[1]
Builder:Huntington Ingalls Industries
Laid down:17 July 2009[2]
Launched:4 June 2012[3]
Sponsored by:Lynne Pace[2]
Christened:20 October 2012[4]
Acquired:10 April 2014[4][5]
Commissioned:11 October 2014[6]
Homeport:San Diego, California
Motto:
  • "Bello vel pace paratus"
  • ("Ready for War or Peace")
Status:in active service
Notes:
  • Program cost: $10.1 billion[7](FY15)
  • Unit cost: $3.4 billion[7] (FY15)
Badge:USS America LHA-6 Crest.png
General characteristics
Class and type:America-class amphibious assault ship[2]
Displacement:44,971 long tons (45,693 t)[8] full load
Length:844 ft (257 m)
Beam:106 ft (32 m)
Draft:26 ft (7.9 m)
Propulsion:Two marine gas turbines, two shafts, 70,000 bhp (52,000 kW), two 5,000 hp (3,700 kW) auxiliary propulsion motors.
Speed:over 22 knots (41 km/h; 25 mph)[9]
Complement:
  • 65 officers, 994 enlisted
  • 1,687 Marines (plus 184 surge)
Sensors and
processing systems:
Electronic warfare
& decoys:
  • AN/SLQ-32B(V)2 Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program Block 1
  • 2 × Mk53 NULKA decoy launchers[12]
Armament:
Aircraft carried:
Wikipedia Chart Credit
LHA: Landing Aassault Ship: F-35B, Osprey, Helicopters and Marines in greater number than the LSD and LPD. It is the Marine's main assault ship. This next step up is finding the optimal configured ship for the F-35B after it is determined how the F-35B can fight in actual combat. The Navy will make a design bigger than the LHA with a 55,000 ton class having more F-35B's and marines. 



LHA-6 America
Related image

A mid point from the 45,00 ton LHA and 65,000 ton British QE, would be a 55,000 ton nuclear powered assault ship containing a larger ships compliment and landing force of about three thousand military personnel for every situation. It should have about 30 F-35's stored below and multiples of Helicopters and Osprey. Sounds like an overpowering Marine mission. 

A key idea would be to build two LHA's for every one Ford class CVN. A 13 billion carrier is twice the cost of two LHA's. A nation who has too few monetary printing presses in action can effectively buy one LHA including flying equipment for its decks for about ten billion US. The Ford class carrier may end up costing 20 billion once all the flying equipment is bought and loaded on board. Another 5 Billion for training and supplying its crews. More billions needed just operating a Ford CVN. The main point is dividing the cost of one CVN (carrier) by two equaling or about 13 Billion a piece when fully complimented and ready for combat.
USS Ford Carrier CVN 79 above 102,000 tons
Image result for Ford class carrier

The naval LHA conundrum dictates how many well deck LHA's and how many hanger deck versions required. The "mini carrier" containing F-35B's is a military marketing tool for both ship building companies and Lockheed Martin.

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Diversify Is The Same As Going West For Boeing

The "Moon Shot" is old business for Boeing as it closed that chapter when the Max rolled out for first delivery. Not only has Boeing reeled in its new plane along with its sink or swim mantra, but it is tendering an offer for ready made Embraer products and it also wants to sell seats to other airlines.


Commercial Embraer Models:
  • Embraer EMB 110 Bandeirante. (15-21 passengers)
  • Embraer EMB 120 Brasilia as ordered. (capable of 30 seats, also light freighter)
  • Embraer ERJ family. Embraer ERJ 135 (37 passengers) 
  • Embraer ERJ 140 (44 passengers) ...
  • Embraer E-Jet family. Embraer 170 (66–78 passengers) ...
  • Embraer E-Jet E2 family. Embraer 175-E2 (80–90 passengers)
  • Embraer 190 E2 97-114 passengers
  • Embraer E195 E2  up to 146 passengers

The seat business is a made in Europe proposition centered in Frankfurt Germany. The American Adient seat company is poised to become part of the Boeing family of aviation products. What better way to undercut Airbus by putting Adient seats made in Germany on Airbus products? Or what better way than rub salt-in when putting a lazy "B" on the bottom of a seat on an Airbus product. A lazy "B" lies flat with its bumps pointed on the downside. I should be hired for Boeing marketing as an "Idea Guy". 

What's on the Table For Boeing Blue Bucks Below is from Boeing Frontiers 2005
Related image


Embraer or Seats, Boeing is playing hard and fast at the start of 2018. Bombardier may want a do over before all is lost for its biggest ticket item, the CS300 series. It's almost as if Boeing is head hunting for filling jobs for idle engineers and design teams on new and diverse projects. 

Building clean sheet airplanes is so 787. Not forgetting the yet to be announced 797 and the 777X, engineers only have to design a stack of Golden Parachutes before 2030. By then Boeing will be making carbon fiber reinforced plastic wings, or is it doing that little thing already? 

Boeing is in a devouring mode instead of making moon shots happen. It will only stop this company grabbing rampage when the euros scream "uncle Sam".

Zodiac biffed it with its seat making acumen as both Boeing and Airbus waited for it, too long. Somebody at Boeing mentioned there is nothing we can't do in perfect double negative form. 

Those Indian Airlines cracked 787 windshields could be the next Boeing acquisition. Using shims and bad fasteners bit the Italian contribution in the early days. The 747-400 based "Dream Lifter" could be aging and more parts could travel by rail to the Northwest (ah from the Northwest) when those Dream Lifters are put to pasture. The 787 will continue its manufacturing run long after heavy lifters are no longer needed as Boeing's exudes its new mantra of, "if you break it we will make it". 

Boeing definitely wants to control what it can control and has learned lessons far beyond a world supply chain as the answer. They have the bravado to make key items when a supplier fails in its attempt of playing hard ball with the bigs. Just like yanking a baseball pitcher out of the game after the fourth straight walk and another run goes on the score board, Boeing will relieve Zodiac seats and put in its flame throwing closer, Boeing investments.

Its Taken A Long Time Announcing The 797

Much more is in the new plane ingredients than first suspected. Timing of an 797 announcement  is more of timing when Boeing will rewrite its airplane family line up. The Max has become Boeing's odd duck on the pond. It has made almost every conceivable change in keeping with its family commonality theme. The 777X will be built on 787 technology. The 797 will be built on 787 technology as well. A new clean sheet 737 design for 2030 will be built on 797 technology.

It was long ago decided the 737 was too small of a frame to be efficiently made out of plastic body. A lot has happened since that conclusion and a lot more will happen during the next twelve years before Boeing can get its arms around the single aisle model, which Airbus currently has stolen the march over Boeing in the last decade. Airbus has made some mistakes with its single aisle strategy. Boeing has made more single aisle strategic mistakes. 

The big error Airbus made was to sell every customer an A320 without regard to its mismanaged backlog. Some customers will be long gone before it could even get an A320 NEO delivered. Airbus will have to increase its single aisle production capacity over the next few years. It will have to put the A-380 to bed before it can consider a new clean sheet  single aisle version in the 2030's. It would rather see what Boeing will do with a 797 design before weighing in on any new clean sheet designs

On the other hand, Boeing neglected the single aisle segment during its first wide body building program starting in 2005. The 757 was turned lose from Boeing while Airbus stole potential Boeing customers with its A321. Boeing was disorganized from the leadership level on down. A lot of Boeing changes occurred during the first five years of the millennium at a critical moment. Now Airbus is seeing a lot of corporate changes going on within its world and is weaken for applying aggressive action with new clean sheet designs until 2025. Boeing will have a new 797 flying by 2025. The 777X will be old hat in its line-up by then. The only unfinished Boeing Business remains for the 737.

The problem for the 737 and the Max program was composites were not efficient for a smaller bodied aircraft during 2012. It would not improve single aisle performance enough for the expense of using it in its frame. By 2025 there will be even lighter and stronger composites available offered to the 797 program which a 737 type could also use efficiently for its own remake. The problem for all single aisle airplanes are they are too narrow for big passengers. Today, single aisle airplanes are built for 5'7" passengers weighing at most 150 pounds. Air travel needs to adjust to the human reality.

The latest 797 proposal floated is a flying oval body made from composite material. A 737 design in 2030 could use lessons learned from the 797 design making the clean sheet 737 having a wider area for passenger going across. The landing gear of course would give it a high enough stance for larger engine circumference and more jet power efficiency. The design engineers at Boeing are all scrambling for the 797 golden BB design hitting its target in this high flying world. The 797 is the key for a future 737. It is taking Boeing a long time for the 797 announcement because it is actually in the hunt for two airplane types that will mutually synergise each other in the market place.  The big problem is for cargo area which is reduced using a flying oval body. That problem has five more years of time for innovative body design and solving any space issues.

The 737 redesign is waiting for cheaper, stronger and lighter reinforced plastic body materials for 160-200 passengers. The 797 will fill the gap above 200 seats. Current process maturity and ongoing innovation is close to becoming the core elements for a new 737 clean sheet design from the 797 project.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Has China Made A Business Case For The A-380?

Like the recent retirements of America's 747's from airlines without any reorders, Airbus is faced with a similar problem. It needs A-380 orders sooner rather than later and it went to China for any deal it can muster for its endangered A-380 program. As of October 31, 2017 Airbus has only a 100 unit backlog since it already has delivered 217 of its 317 ordered A-380's. Boeing's mission was accomplished as it diverted enough orders away from the A-380 order book with about 136 of the 747-8 types to its own order book. Boeing has delivered 124 of its 747-8's since first delivery. Airbus would love to have those 136 Boeing orders in its books as the A-380 is going the way of the Dinosaur just like its competitor's 747 program.

Boeing always always knew the 747-8 program was a Pyrrhic wrench thrown at Airbus in an attempt at denying Airbus revenue throughout the A-380 program duration. The 747-8 is probably resting in pieces at Everett Wa, facility at this time with a Mission Accomplished banner waving over the big production factory doors for the 747.

Airbus has flown to China with hat in hand and gifts that may impress an emperor if one still existed in China. If Airbus would give China a two fer deal, then China would gladly buy some A-380's, but not enough to save Airbus' face over the whole Jumbo debacle.  A sweeping deal would be 50 A-380's at half price of list for China. It wouldn't save the A-380 program over-all and would only extend building them for a couple of years.

No press has reported A-380 deal progress from the Airbus visit at this late date:

News release from Airline geeks:

"Neither side has commented on the possible deal or details of it. Macron concluded his visit on Saturday with no announcement being made immediately upon his return. It is, however, unusual that a government makes the sale of a commercial aircraft part of a state visit agenda. While Airbus receives a lot of support from the French and German governments, politicians have so far been hesitant to engage in sales pitches themselves."

Airbus wants a 100 unit deal as the sales visit draws to a close. No word has come from the talks only muted speculations. Macron is home with what appears as a big goose egg on his accomplishments for Airbus. However, a deal could come later after negotiations are completed by the principles involved through these meetings. The best hope is Macron laid out what the French government is willing to do for China. Silence after his return home is not promising. Airbus remains behind for wheeling and dealing its way towards saving face.

If China has a business plan for its special needs, then a deal will be made, but if it can't find an A-380 plan for its masses with 500 seats at a chop, then it becomes a Wonton soup festival served with French butter. Silence is a key Airbus tactic until the last day of an airshow or end of year order announcements. Its January and the next big airshow is months away. Macron went home to sit on his hands and China has asked Airbus for the US missile defense system launch codes before a deal is done.

The Chinese business case is flying masses on Airbus' A-380's at a 737 price of operation and of course those missile codes just mentioned after Macron went home.

The real case may be made by Emirates who happens to own 100 A-380's and is the same number under consideration by China. Airbus fears an Emirate bolt from the Airbus fold with this model type. China could ask Emirates a few questions and it may affect a Chinese decision for the A-380.

Image result for a-380