What Was Winging It Thinking Five Years Ago?

Merry Christmas and What's Under The Tree. (Unwrapped Update 2012 Edition Revisited Link)

This is perhaps one of my old favorite blogs, since the beginning of this blogger's folly for Boeing's march through the Aviation Renaissance (AR). 

Ø A mention for the 797 was featured

Ø Folding Wing Tips just a dream

Ø A prediction for 2020 and the 777X was on target before the press could think of it. 

Ø And Christmas 2017 is coming in 70 days.

Winging It's AR unwrapped its magnificent obsession for an airplane called the 797.  It presumed it may be a 777X rendition but also hinted for an all new type back in 2012. 

Time bears out the truth and its looking like the NMA will be named the 797, giving Boeing more time to come up with a new naming (numbering) convention going forward which is an idea for another blog contribution.

What can be reflected upon after five years hence; a lot has happened when little has changed in the bigger picture. Boeing has made the 787-9 a smashing success and issued forth its 737 Max family adding a 737 Max 10. It also has developed the 787-10 with first customer production aircraft made but not delivered until flight testing of its first production models are complete.

What changed is the strategic footprint Boeing has achieved during the last five years. It confirmed orders for 531 of its 787's since January 2012 while Airbus booked about 406 for its A-350 family of aircraft. Boeing added two new members to its 787 aircraft family the 787-9  and the 787-10.  Airbus added its A-350 1000 to its family of wide bodies.

Boeing announced the Max and now has 3,902 Max aircraft on its books. Airbus, with an 11 month head start, has a big lead with over 5,202 A-320 NEO's ordered to date. However the announcement of the 737 Max 10 at Paris this last June has narrowed the Airbus lead by several hundred units. 

The 737 also promises to compete with its A-321 NEO in the order battle. The A-321 NEO is the primary reason Airbus has its lead over Boeing in the single aisle segment.

  

Alan Joyce, Best Practices and Qantas

Qantas airlines is about to receive its first 787-9. Alan Joyce has lead the Qantas survival in the highly competitive airline market. Back in 2009 Qantas canceled a boatload of 787's by moving some product to its subsidiary Jetstar and then promptly canceling its confirmed order book while maintaining 45 options. Qantas was in a dire position and being a Boeing star customer became a pipe dream at that time.

Great disappointment spread across Boeing's aspirations at the time. Since then, "countless" orders poured in for Boeing's 787 family of aircraft totaling about 1,300 large mid bodies ordered today.  Boeing got over Qantas stalling out over Everett, Wa.

Eight and a half years later, Qantas is about to receive its first 787-9 out of eight on order. In currently owns a fleet of 787-8's on its Jetstar fleet of eleven. Lucky for Qantas its 747's held together another eight years. The eight 787-9's it had ordered will now make Qantas a world player instead of looking like an old Pan Am travel folder. Somehow the lucky eight is in sight of China's lucky number.

There are two schools of strategy available from a Qantas position. The first is the industry norm, "Build it and they will come". The second is is "Best practices". Alan Joyce has taken the later. 

Back in the 1990's the term "best practices" was all the rage at business seminars. It could be defined, use the means that are proven to be the best for gaining success. Alan Joyce pulled Qantas up and over the mountain staying within its best practice. It took care of business first by never absorbing an enormous 787 Boeing order before it could fix its business model.

The best practice here was to keep old equipment like the 747, until squeezing out its last revenue dollar possible before an airplane failure could occur. Using paid for and depreciated equipment was cheaper than its fuel burn inefficiency. The cost of buying 787's in vast quantity would sink the Qantas financial ship. Alan Joyce had to make some hard decisions before becoming a Boeing star customer. It canceled its 787 order book, but held onto a significant number of options for future purchases. The future is now.

The first 787-9 arrives today out of eight booked. The future is also tomorrow as Qantas holds onto production slots with further 787-9 orders to be confirmed at its own pace. Alan Joyce choice by not building before they come is working out of a best business practices strategy. Making an idea work before scaling up is the theme. The only damage done to Qantas is some of its pride was bruised back in 2009. Now that its 747-400 are depreciated on the books sufficiently, the opportunity arises for the 787 fleet expansion. The only regret is Qantas had the position of being a world 787 leader when it would have started receiving its first 787-9's back in 2014 instead of 2017.

The best practice of growing an airline within its own available resources seams to have worked at the expense of some pride and a few routes lost. Late to the ball worked for Cinderella after all. The main thing is to make the main thing, the main thing! Alan Joyce best practices motto leads his charge. He is rebuilding Qantas into a world player one air frame at a time. 

The Qantas door has opened years late but is now able to learn from the 787 pioneers for what mistakes not to make. It kept its powder dry until seeing the green in the bank. The best practice was to wait until all the bugs were worked out of its fleet operations. Now Qantas can resume from 2009. It was not a lost opportunity but more of taking its turn after meticulous preparation. Building an airline empire when so few passengers may come was a recipe for disaster. Alan Joyce just wrote the book on business due diligence in the airline industry.

The 797 Unique-Ubiquitous and In The GAP 797

The Great Air Plane (aka GAP)  may be called the 797 and it will be incomparably unique. The gap is an airplane space void of any typical tubes flying east and west. Boeing is taking its time before announcing its gap filler aircraft. The A-321 NEO flies around the GAP edge in an endless circle leaving the 737 single aisle segment stumped. There is a 5,000 unit GAP capacity for no known or existing airplane. 

The Boeing company is taking its time for announcing a new class of aircraft. Probably because it took too long for a buying customers waiting for its 787 program. Ten years is a long time for holding airplane expectation after an announcement. Boeing is muting customer expectation when waiting by and already going forward with a mid body in secret steps. 

Announcing too early will drive customer nuts during a long wait. The wait has already started before announcing the aircraft but its development is on-going getting ahead of any impatient waiting like the 787 experienced.

A second point under consideration is that its chief competitor does not know how to counter something not yet publicly announced to all commercial aviation customers. The secret sauce: Boeing is waiting for milestones to be reached before announcing. The guarantee must be five year entry into service from date of market announcement. Additionally, the design deviates from the norm and all development stoppers are mitigated away from critical eyes. No bad press please. Boeing has its work cut out for making a timeline from its initial announcement to a five year entry into service deadline.

Boeing is also moving developmental operations in the vicinity of area 51 or somewhere near Burbank California for assembly. The Dream-lifter can and will move parts towards a quaint building near jack rabbits and sage brush. Every part of the mystery aircraft can be airlifted into an engineering/assembly area not found near Seattle, Wa. When the prototype flies comes an announcement to an Airshow near Paris. The newly created front office for the 797 can handle mail forwarding and phone calls coming into some Boeing rented space near the "Needle". The office answering machine answers every phone call with a " Welcome to the 797 program, please leave a message and we will return your call at the nearest time available" beeeep message sequence. 

The Seattle Times has assigned an aviation columnist to the project and offers sage opinions on a weekly basis. Winging It regurgitates any opinion as its standard issue.

If a 797 is needed by a customer, call Boeing's marketing arm, they are taking names and kicking tail.  

The whole idea is to choreograph an announcement where Boeing can deliver a unique aircraft in ubiquitous quantities before the competition can even read the blue print on such an aircraft. A five year window is needed for this operation using a ten year development run-up for the 797. The year 2019-2020 should allow time for a prototype and an announcement year in Paris. Boeing has learned it needs to jump the competition for any forward leaning ideas.

The Accretive Max

I am so glad this is not finals week at some University of higher learning. In some class whether its math, business, or science. A popularization of the word "accretive" would show up in a question.  The finals question may read this way.

What accretive example can be given from the aviation Industry?

Answer:

(a)The first accretive example is Boeing's 737 MAX. First there was the 737 Max -7 followed by the 737 Max 8, and then came the -nine after which came the -ten. It becomes "Accretive" with all its expansion of types, as it battles a competitor's enormous backlog of 5,202 A-320 NEO types ordered. As of September 30, 2017 Boeing has gained firm orders for its 737 Max family in a number of 3,902 units. The fastest accretive rise in Boeing's history for any of its vast airplane types ever made.

(b)Then the business school guy chimes in "wrong answer!" Boeing has made a clean switch going from its 737 NG to the 737 Max on the factory floor. It has already delivered 30 Max types while maintaining a high monthly production rate. The cash upside is incredible and the stock value is off the charts at this time by quickly going past the accretive position into hyper value drive.

(c)Not so fast the science guy chimes in, "while working with the physics of the problem it was discovered that the 737 NG could fly about 2,900 miles on an a full plane load of passengers and luggage into the wind. The accretive nature of the Max program has added passengers, luggage and can go 3,500 miles. This (me) science guy is catching a flight to the Hawaii observatory from the mainland on an Southwest Airline  737 Max 8 as proof of this concept."

Can that be done?

(d)The FAA guys have the accretive proposition for a Hawaiian flight under advisement. Its not a matter of if, it's a matter of when!

When all stories are compared with one another it was was 4-0 in favor the 737 Max was accretive and not just an excellent answer after a recent PW engine Airbus test flight. 

The correct test answer is: (b)

Accretive is the process of accretion, which is growth or increase by gradual addition, in finance and general nomenclature. An acquisition is considered accretive if it adds to the item's value or corporation's earnings per share. 

The business school answer using the 737 Max as an aviation example is the correct answer on this test.

DARPA's Mission: Well It Flew!

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or AKA DARPA, has billions of invisible money. Money that isn't even printed since it is invisible to the public's eyes.The topic is the UCAS Boeing X45 and Grumman X47. Boeing was first to come on board and then Grumman's was last to take-off the carrier. The Unmanned Combat Air System is the autonomous aircraft that looks like a flying... 

Butte, Montana Pasty

X47B Grumman Flying Pasty

Carrier Autonomous Launch photo

Boeing-s 2000-2000? X45 Version

The big story is the X47 program was mothballed after a successful campaign of launching and landing with Aircraft carriers at sea. The last word is that developers are making a military version in the meantime with bigger payloads and longer ranges.

The disadvantage is it wasn't stealthy in the first iterations. The advantage is that it flew and worked well. The program is scalable and transferable. Software loads from the autonomous aircraft can move to existing manned aircraft where refueling and flying of manned flights are then made autonomous for most military aircraft.  Personnel on board could manage other duties.

Expect a public reveal where the next generation of UCAS to become stealthy with a 4,000 pound payload capability and cheap enough as a multiplier in the battlefield. Working with a F-35 type platform going into the battle space, the F-35 would be used as a bad uncle pounding radar, missiles and any defenses intended for the UCAS wing of aircraft.

Any armed adversarial wings would become overwhelmed by a combination of F-35's and other fourth generation aircraft having a multitude of X47 "bomb trucks" flying into harms way. The GBU class bombs from 500-2000 pound class would  surgically take-out the ground installation and military options in moments where the 5th generation aircraft fly cover and give management for the whole battle space.

Satellite communication links would engage operators in warehouses, trailers and Naval ships a half a world away into the fracas even without an American human causality. The first few moments of any battle is where the risks arise for the incoming equipment. After the initial defensive barrage, all weapons location would be identified and neutralized. In fact the onslaught of cruise missiles may take out a majority of the ground weapons before the air armada arrives.     

Its Been Awhile Since Mentioning The Zumwalt

Back in early April 2016 an article was posted about the Zumwalt. 

At Sea Aboard the Zumwalt Defense News Feature.

It was a walk through in words and pictures of the Zumwalt DDG 1000 dress rehearsal before acceptance trials. It mentioned in this article it would be about two years before its weapons load would be accomplished. The Zumwalt at that time was bare of weapons and munitions. The weapons systems were not on board but awaited a San Diego port duty station for up grading DDG 1000 of its weapons. In fact a debate was on whether to install a rail gun which turned out to be a punt on fourth down procurement cycle. A later follow-on Zumwalt class destroyer would be fitted with the "Rail Gun".

USNI News photo

The interim period of time from then to now, the Zumwalt has been fitted with a vast variety of weapon systems, which have yet to be completed throughout an estimated June 2018 time frame. All first time installations and testing’s of a new class of ship such as a Zumwalt should expect time to drag on until the Navy knows what it has or will have.

Seven months out from June and 18 months since builders trials the Zumwalt has gained funding for the final phases of equipment and systems installations. 

Navy Updating Missions Systems Equipment

The Zumwalt will rapidly become ready for war in a way potential adversary will have an almost impossible task of stopping its capability. The North Korean turmoil will miss the Zumwalt's presence in the current situation. The former Zumwalt-Winging It article mentioned the ship was similar to a submarine configuration as all activities would be held under its skin except aviation access and a few other "outside" sea going tasks. Everything else would be held under closed view from natural light.

It becomes mind boggling as to what this ship will able to do. If the F-35 is a flying computer synchronizing the battle space from above, then the Zumwalt has the same only from the surface. It will have in the future an advanced dual band radar  AN/SPY-6  just for the navy.

The summary of it all is a 3D radar system that can capture and lock down movement of any objects from a specific or broad band sensing. Currently the most advance Radar systems being installed are on the CVN 78 Gerald R Ford i.e.  AN/SPY-3 types.

The AN/Spy-6 is so classified there is no other capability existing in the world. The Zumwalt will be able to coordinate current military systems outside the ships battle space under and above the seascape.

Expect the Zumwalt to be loaded with a full array of destroyer type missiles, torpedoes and other hidden weapons of mass destruction. All will be automated, plug and play type systems for which the recent funding award will hook-up.

   

Jet Airways of India Inks 75 Max 737's

It may have been a well known deal in the making or maybe it wasn't, but Jet Airways did sign in on the 737 Max for 75 units as a firm order. What is further a big get for Boeing is another 75 possibilities are on option from Jet Airways. The Boeing single aisle is taking over the Airbus single aisle bookings for 2017. 

When Airbus closes its order year it will have to have some big late year A-320 NEO orders to even hold the Boeing surge off. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Airbus to wall off a Boeing single aisle order surge since its backlog is so very large and its rate of production currently has slowed down for the A-320 family of aircraft.

Boeing can now add 75 single aisle units to its order book, which was standing at 398 gross units at the end of September. Back in April 2013 and then in March 2014, Jet Airways had ordered 75 Max Jets with 50 and 25 respective unit orders. It was announce this last June 2017 that Jet Airways was in the market for up to 100 narrow bodied aircraft. However, about 100 days later comes the news that Jet Airways just firmed up another 75 Max 737's, This recent disclosure would make Boeing's single aisle order book bounce upward towards 490 gross single aisle orders during YTD October 2017. Airbus at the end of September had booked a gross of 263 of its single aisle aircraft. Without having any Airbus order data an assumption is made, Boeing has about a 227 gross order lead over Airbus for the single aisle type at this time.

If this order relationship remains constant until the end of the year, Boeing will have significantly reduce the Single Aisle order lead Airbus currently holds. 

AirAsia X Has(d) 66 A330 NEO's

AirAsia X has entered negotiations with Airbus into converting 66 A-330-900's it had already ordered into a like number of A-350-900's. It also mentioned talking to Boeing about its 787 as if an insertion into this news slice. This also opens up a huge topic for Airbus. It only shows 206 A-330-900 NEO's ordered program-to-date, noting zero booked for 2017. If it does switch that order to 66 A-350's, it would harm the A-330 NEO program immensely. As an Airbus A-350 switch deal confirmed, Airbus could then show only show 140 A-330-900's in a one for one deal. AirAsia X holds the the life force of the Airbus aspirations for its A-330 NEO campaign.

Currently, Airbus has Booked 858 A-350's with 114 of its type delivered. An AirAsia X switch to the A-350 from the A-330-900 NEO would effectively stun the Airbus NEO program. The other part of the program is the A-330-800 with only 6 ordered. The NEO program would shrink to 146 A-330-NEO's booked which places that Airbus program as a lost leader program feeding into its A-350. 

Airbus plan "B": If an Airbus deal is struck for switching to 66 A-350's from the A-330 NEO's it will not catch Boeing's hold on the medium wide body market. In fact this may be something of Airbus' own making. In addition the deal may only involve going from 66 A-330 NEO's to 50 Airbus A-350's. There are many possibilities in this transaction, but all have Boeing's gun held to the Airbus' head.

Airbus could conceivably flip its A-330 NEO customers into A-350 customers as a last ditch maneuver. If it did do a flipping maneuver it, would signal the A-330 is a non starter and the A-350 needs support from its other offerings. Sixty-six is a big number and Airbus could make a better impression on the wide body market place by turning AirAsia X into a large A-350  customer since it already has 10 A-350's on order.

Boeing was mentioned earlier, and it would seem it has little or no chance disrupting this situation. The mere mention of Boeing to Airbus through media reporting benefits AirAsia X for receiving a favorable pricing offer from Airbus. It has a disadvantage with AirAsia X for it too can lever a favorable market price offering. It's an AirAsia X gotcha effort. 

If Boeing were to give away the 787 to AirAsia X in a bid, Airbus would be inclined to do so in response. It's coming down to a medium wide body end-game. 

If AirAsia X wants to kill the A-330-NEO program it can by accepting an A-350 like order. If Boeing wants to kill Airbus aspirations in this market segment it can give away some airplane as if making an Airbus kill shot targeting two of its programs at the same time. 

However,  Boeing may have more fish to fry elsewhere and will probably defer its WB order efforts in a different direction and let Airbus kill 66 of its own A-330-NEO's and enhance its A-350 order using low ball pricing for AirAsia X. Boeing will go north of 1,300 787 orders this year without squeezing off an forced deal in this direction.

Azerbaijan plans to buy six-ish Boeing airplanes

This tittle is just a sampling of what's behind the Boeing curtain before year's end 2017. If reading further the discovery for ten 737 Max, four 787 Dreamliners, and two making 16, could be finalized before year's end. However, the back story does not end there. Winging It has for some time stuck to its guns by saying the wide body 787 family will rip up the stalled order year. It has already gained 83 net 787 orders. There are orders not to be gained but more of to be signed since many orders are in MOU limbo. Boeing will close in on a multitude of finalized 787 orders by year's end.

Boeing vs Airbus for 2017 Orders

Using a tack of caution will sensibly move the 787 book close to 100 units ordered by year's end. Additionally, the Max book has not been lying idle this year as it is consistently outpacing the Airbus A320 NEO order book throughout the year. This statistic causes analyst to pause over Airbus single aisle order book. There is a limit to everything and perhaps Airbus has booked its easy customer orders while Boeing is beginning to gobble up the "reflective" single aisle market during 2017. Problems that Airbus encountered with its productive success have been marred by engine failure or supplier lag. It has addressed those issues, but created an opening for Boeing's Max with a more reliable CFM 1B engine and is moving seamlessly forward with enhancing its 737 Max production after its first 30 units delivered and maintaining the NG production pace. Boeing has waited a long time for making more single aisle per month than Airbus. Boeing delivered 57 NG/Max 737 during September, 2017.  Boeing booked 61 single aisle orders in September. Airbus delivered 40 and confirmed 40 orders of the A320 NEO/CEO single aisle in the same period.

Its obvious to see Airbus has been longer, at building the A320 NEO, but lags behind Boeing in its production pace by 17 units tallied in September. 

Furthermore, during 2017 Boeing has confirmed 398 gross single aisle orders to Airbus' 263 gross single aisle orders. Ten months is long enough time for some kind of trend conclusion, Boeing has turned a positive corner and Airbus a negative corner. Boeing has more potential and Airbus has spent its potential in the single aisle category.

Going back the the WB division it is clear Boeing is sustaining a stable order influx for its 787 family of aircraft and the year 2017 has had a surprising 787 order strength in a "down year". It may exceed 100 787's ordered and become one of Boeing's strongest 787 order years. Not only has it garnered 777 orders but the 747-8F has not died. A steady trickle of 747-8F orders are emerging and several more will be added to Boeing's order book at the close of the year. It's still only "life support" and the urgency from customers ordering continues before a program could close. Qatar and Azerbaijan are ordering the 787-8F and "others" are considering 747 orders. The few orders hanging are considerably more than the A-380 non orders.

It's still too early to dismiss Airbus from expanding its order book as they often hold announcing year end orders until the first week of the following year or the last week of any given year. Boeing, is of course beginning to play this game as well, and it is expecting a robust December order book emerging, wrapping up most of its hanging orders it has since filed from the Paris airshow. A majority of the Paris deals had MOU's or LOI signed during the event. It has already closed some of the Paris LOI deals since June 2017. There are about 236 MOU units remaining from Paris as not finalized, and many should be by years end. The Paris count goes as Follows by Winging It.  The are about 225 MOU's outstanding both for Max 8's and Max 10's. There are about 9 MOU's for the 787 and 2 MOU's for the 777's from the Paris Airshow last June. These paper intents could be finalized by year's end.

Assets Equals Liabilities 101

What’s Boeing Worth and other accounting 101 confusion? The asset is a valuation of what a company owns even though it may have borrowed money for its ownership. An asset is typically valued by amounts of cash in the bank, buildings and other material items. The liability is a matter of debt value when acquiring its assets. Market capitalization is the value of outstanding stock it has with its stockholders. It falls on the Liability side of the balance sheet. Remember Assets equals Liability and outstanding shares of stock is a liability equaling, in part, its asset value. A corporation uses stocks to expand its existence. In other words, it issues more stock as a financial source for corporate uses.

When a liability is reduced, then the asset must reduce as well with same value. A better understanding of corporate stock value clears up one part of the balance sheet. Outstanding stock is a liability until the corporation buys back its outstanding stock. In order to do this the cash/asset position is reduced by the same amount of the current stock buy back value. 

It gets weirder, when considering all the liability meanderings on the right side of the balance sheet. There is another category or two such as Owner Equity and Dividend paid out. We are just getting started and accountants are paid the big bucks for just taking care of one item off its balance sheet. When all the flows trickle through the accounting cycle there could be an increase to Owner’s equity while offsetting some sort of liability or Asset proposition. 

Dividends declared reduces cash while paying out a value to its stockholders but does not reduce its own stock capitalization value. You now know it as outstanding shares with corporate market values, which sounds kind of like a debt or liability where it may offset the asset by the same amount (left side) of the balance sheet. Stockholder trading is different than corporate trading. Therefore the usual accounting entries become a nominal exercise. Sometimes a reduction in a liability is offset by an increase of a liability found within another account. Sometimes a reduction of an asset (i.e. cash) is offset by an asset acquisition such as equipment. Accounting becomes an Organized Mess at this point.

Back in my university days a very wise professor told the freshman accountants to-be, “all accounting is a bunch of numbers that add up to zero”. I wrote that down just in case it was on my next test. Back to Market Caps before I digress with zeros. There is a stock called “treasury stock”. It is not outstanding nor is it a liability, so it must fall on the left side of the balance sheet as an asset nominally. The company owns it and will issue it (outstanding) as a reserve source of cash liquidity.

If it does sell the stock, the sale value becomes an “outstanding” liability in the same amount of what is deposited into its asset cash vault. It also becomes another owner’s equity liability. So what was the liability offset before the treasury stock was sold? Some kind of debt on the books I suspect. When the company sold its treasury stock for cash it may have paid off some of its debt reducing the asset and liability netting another zero somewhere on a journal near you. Accounting is getting fun as a board game of Monopoly.

Capitalization value is the total value of outstanding stocks sold having a value in some point in time. There is a whole another accounting floor taking care of Market Cap values. Boeing has a Market Cap and it shows with its dichotomy of various share value outstanding over its history of company issued stock transactions. Boeing can issue new stocks on the market increasing its Market Cap. It can buy back shares thus reducing its Market Cap by the sell price of each share. 

The stock market is driven by stock sellers and buyers and not by Boeing in this example. However, perceptions drive the market giving stock a perceived value. Many things drive the open market value of stocks. Just look at the news and watch stock values rise or tumble with the news. However, Market Caps comes from the value of stock sold by the issuing company and not the stock traders or investors. A perceived "Corporate Market Cap" affects stock pricing traded in the open market. It could represent how much a corporation has in "outstanding share value" which may shadow its asset values to some extent. Bringing clarity to the forefront is Winging It's goal of bringing the score to null.