Boeing September Orders and YTD Summary

Below is an exclusive Winging It Chart which tries to track what Boeing documents not what the press reporting has indicated. These are two different world's. Boeing post's only what the customer has confirmed as an order and additionally only reports the customer's name when that same customer allows its naming on Boeing's web site. Sometimes the press becomes vague with its assertions and results  in reporting intents as firm orders and firm orders as intents. This becomes a general confusion for aviation followers who seek firm answers.

Boeing added firm orders in September 2017 by 72 units for all of  Boeing types. Boeing also reported it had delivered 78 units for all its types during September 2017. The important metric of book to bill rate is .92 for September. The goal each month is a solid "1" for a book to bill rate. Boeing fell six orders short having only 72 orders when examining the above chart. The chart also reflects an annual net YTD order total 498 units. The adjustments or cancellation metric is a -67 units applied to the gross orders. Boeing has already pushed forward with 565 gross orders for all its airplane types offered.

A special tracking by Winging It is for Boeing's medium wide body 787 aircraft since it needs to retire a 27 billion deferred cost amount. Boeing has now expanded its 787 accounting block to 1,300 units. The accounting block's intent is an analytical position for when Boeing will retire all costs held in suspense after each 787 delivered profits money. That profit margin on each 787 goes towards retiring its program deferred start-up debt. The accounting block becomes a marker on the trail towards ultimate profitability. Boeing will not pay-off its 27 billion remaining deferred costs during the next accounting block. Tracking Boeing 787 orders is an important key for estimating when it will reaches its program milestone of retired costs.

Boeing has now booked 1,283 units of its 787 family of aircraft. An important footnote for the program is that it has less than 100 of its more costly production 787-8 type, and the more production efficient 787-9 and 787-10 will contribute with a higher per unit margin over the 787-8's smaller deferred cost reductions.

Charting the monthly and YTD booking numbers indicates the long term health for Boeing's commercial division.

The US3 and The World Too

The US3 aka United, American and Delta Airlines are firmly entrenched in a winner takes all battle with other world airlines. The Middle East, or aka: Qatar, Emirates and Etihad Airlines are the usual suspects in this foray of political intrigue, are confronted by the US3. A worthy moniker must be identified for the Middle Eastern concerns, hence the label, ME3. It's a battle between US and ME. Damn the "Open Skies" and full steam ahead. 

"US has a big stake in the invasion coming from ME !", as it filters through the aviation lobby in Washington DC. 

As a passenger, I only look at a competitive features concerning price, location-location-location, and comfort. It almost sounds like a real estate promo. ME is squatting on US real estate as it expands using its oil based wealth when buying Boeing Aircraft. Boeing is a US corporation and it too has a lobby in congress. 

However, ME3 (not too but three), comes all the way to the Everett, Washington's Boeing delivery center celebrating a 747-8F delivery, and dances in the face of the US3, and what's wrong with that? 

The US just took in a half a billion in US dollars coming from ME3 sourced from oil/gasoline sold to the US.  ME3 took delivery of its 747-8F and displayed a 777-300-ER doing test flights while parking its 777-200 next to the 747-8F. 

It was a display of what ME3 can do for US too. ME3 is not the color brown as it is more of a desert sand color slipping through US's fingers.

The US3 must embrace competition and fair trade. It must make clear what its complaint is rather than issuing generalities which no one can get its arms around. Rather than saying the ME3 is squatting on US3 property, it must make a succinct case first before sounding off. 

WE2 (World Entities of Passengers and Airlines) cannot understand what the problem has become and any generalities clouds the issues entirely. The history of US3 fair trade must be made so WE2 can understand what is fair and what is not fair after ME3 lands in Miami, FL. We don't even understand what the often quoted term "Open Sky" treaty actually represents.

Airplane Mini Recession?

Recently, Lufthansa huddled about its long standing 777X order made in 2013. Monarch airlines went out of business holding 30 Boeing Max 737 orders. Is this an airplane mini recession or just the normal churning of aircraft orders in the daily business cycles  of  risk adverse management?

The Emirates wide body order looms large in a holding pattern over the Dubai airshow. Its order intent may lose fuel and come crashing down at this year's show citing a lessening passenger demand while causing some industry re-thinking.

A deeper study from every business goal and intent may reveal a small aviation trend where orders are in a flattening order spin over the last several years. Its getting harder to find mega orders for any class of aircraft.   The buyers swamp has been drained, a little bit. However, an order storm cloud is gathering an ominous view via the intent route. Airlines are ordering (sort of) using MOU's or LOI's. The customer retains a golden LOI parachute when intending a purchase, thus making it a mini airplane recession.

Buying aircraft outright is an indicator of  awesome demand or when negotiating for six months is an indicator financial ducks are not in a row. A mini recession could be measured in how long it takes to confirm an order. The longer the confirmation time taken, the more of an indication of its airplane customer's financial well being.

When would a current mini recession evaporate? Remember the reference to a storm cloud, it too can evaporate with the right cross-winds. The expectation for a returning demand market is controlled by
every conceivable action from the world's social/political environment. It is also affected by the environment itself. Aviation's business models are in the gate awaiting the bell and a gate swaying start. The occasional bankruptcy and the re positioning of billions of dollars are all micro-recessionary influences which can and will pass through as a wisp in the morning fog. The main thing in the current market is the end of year measure by mega aircraft builders. Both Boeing and Airbus each have its own worries but tend to look through mini recessions.

Within a annual cycle these events would lend to a bump in the order road.

• A mini-recession would last no longer than six months
• Its spread would encapsulate a handful divergent airlines
• A possible and immediate change to a demand cycle exists within this period.
• A mini recession is difficult to track.
• Airshows tend to balance the outlook for any recessions and demand
• Airshows tend to point to absolute trends.

The current trend is for a mix of rough air and smooth flying until early 2018. The one off problematic encounters for each of the mega framers will go under cover thus indicating a visible normal cycle creating a market balance until what few mega sales remaining are announced.

Boeing's WB Pole Position Laps Competition

The gathering lines of customers are eager to have a photo op at the winner's circle. Boeing's had the pole position when it first announced its WB 787 offering back in the 2002-2003 period. Its been fifteen years since the Idea was unveiled. How has it changed the world?

Below is the paper shuffle for new 787-9' intents MOU's or agreements. These all need an order placement for a booked order.

Information from All Things 787 for Egypt Air transaction.

It is also important to note these sales (papers) represent an active and ongoing market viability beyond the 78 net ordered. It is also significant that the Dubai airshow next month could give Boeing another shot at its order book arm, even though Emirates has backed off from its pre show announcing of new orders, there remains an opportunity for more Boeing/Dubai WB announcements.

2017 order synergy ='s a backlog becoming manageable, pricing is very competitive and the 787 business plan is working extremely well for all its customers.

Boeing could book 200 WB's in 2017 counting 787's and 777X's.

Cul-De-Sac The Book Chapter One: It's The Water

The highest priced property should be found in a Cul-de -sac. It is an island within a sea of people. Having never living in one before this year, I found out about the little nuances of  Cul-de-sac: With a front window position for viewing in an arena setting; Watching  the semi circle of things going on in everyone's life; you are changed. The lack of traffic going through as its flow is exclusive to only those who live in the semi circle, makes the magic happen. The vision of the cul-de-sac is similar to a tribal village on the river of life. Neighbor's canoes put-in on its drive ways where expressions on neighbors faces tell the whole story of the day. One neighbor drives fast coming in, spinning around the circle and backing into its driveway. The other (new) neighbor doesn't know the rules of trash yet and puts out a huge TV box for which the city disposal won't pick-up.

After pealing back of layers of the Cul-de-sac culture reveals a trash day for yard leaves in November. I got this tip from my other neighbor on my starboard side. He wanted to know who did my re-roofing. Then went on to explain how he wanted me and himself to get on the irrigation board for the sixteen homes in the  two adjoining cul-de-sacs. The system is for  pressurized lawn watering coming from one well making this "water district". Somehow, I felt important by this subliminal offer for a neighborhood power play. 

My other neighbor didn't even live in the Cul-de-sac. He was from Vancouver, Wa and bought the house for his daughter, who just moved in with her three children. She just went through a nasty divorce as her ex went to live with his boy-friend. Oh-my, unplug the cable TV. I don't need it, its all happening out the front window. She's the one who whips her car around and backs-in her drive-way several times a day. She is rattled and it shows. Another neighbor in the circle is a single guy about age 31 is having trash issues on garbage day. His neighbor on his other side within the semi circle is a single women in her mid twenty's. She is never home during  the year I've lived at the crown of the circle for almost a year. Her dad owns the house and she is never home.

So far I've got this going for this analysis. One neighbor bought his house back in 2005 without even walking through it before buying. The Vancouver Guy drove-in one day and bought his house for daughter because he liked the feel of the Cul de sac. The next "neighbor" a 31 year old, had looked months at countless homes and found this one at an affordable price and bought the day he saw it.

Twelve months ago we turned the corner into the circle when looking at homes and before we got out of the car "we mentally bought the house". The Cul de sac had cast a spell on us within 30 seconds and once walking through the home my son made an offer on the spot for the home. Here we are and it is like living on an Island surrounded by other far flung neighborhoods, only they have continuous flow through traffic and noise.

The must be something going on here that is missed. Maybe it's the water and the water board guy was on to something.  Five homes on the semi circle and five buys with the same story. The houses were sold the day the buyer turned the corner into the cul de sac. No matter the condition or size the house was sold and the tribe began to grow around the circle. Within a year's time we have become a community whether or not it was intended from the start. Being a reclusive soul. I have talked more and gotten to know more in one year of time than ever before in my life. In fact a strange thing happened. The estimated value of our home has increased price by $66,000 in ten months the other homes around us have increased in value with only a nominal increase over the same period of time. The strange part is all we did was just mow the lawn, that's it!

There is magic in the air and now I am considering being a member of the two person water committee within the sixteen homes near us. People have a story to tell but they need to sit in a semi circle to tell it and that is what a cul de sac does. It makes neighbors be neighbors, then friends and finally they have your back (or at least your back fence).

If Boeing Bought Bombardier Then...

This whole Boeing fiasco with Bombardier C-series getting 1.5 Billion in front money from its Canadian government really, really, irks Boeing. Boeing is going for some kind of Pyrrhic Victory-kill shot. In some strange circumstance the audacity for having Mr. Toadian mania exists. (Sarcasm font) "Boeing doesn't really want to sell Canada or UK military its vast military product line when it slams an Irish wing plant supporting Bombardier's  C-series. Boeing doesn't care if another 20 F/A 18's are not sold to the Canadian military." 

It wants its pound of flesh through US tariffs attached to every Delta C-series delivered. The US government is happy when it receives hundreds of millions from Bombardier/Delta tariff money assessed.

Below: Boeing legal team jumps at Bombardier's airspace.

The tariff idea is effective but not efficient as the DoD spends billions more on each of Lockheed's F-35 contracting batches and additionally on its F-35 R&D upgrades or flawed concept corrections.

Boeing loves it when a plan comes together with its "B" team. The cheering from its legal department is deafening or is it screaming we hear as the Boeing wolves find bottom after reaching terminal velocity when biffing up its leap towards Bombardier C-series.  AKA,  "going off the edge".

Forbes values Bombardier at 3.6 billion US or the equivalent of  about 24 Boeing 787's at list price. Just buy 51% of Bombardier then let it sell all the regional aircraft, locomotives and ATV's into infinity that it wants to. Boeing would sell more F/A 18's, Chinooks and "other Military industrial complex stuff to Canada, Ireland and Great Britain as it helps Bombardier grow in Canada. Also invite Canada to supplement more funds to Bombardier/Boeing types of projects going forward, so it will rapidly turn the situation into the proverbial win/win tactic of big business.

But Boeing is playing small business instead because its pissed and it doesn't matter what others think.

NMA- Boeing Won't Launch What It Hasn't Already Sold

All the Boeing excuses for not launching the NMA (797) comes down to one point. It needs several hundred firmed NMA sales before any announcement.



Boeing has quipped market research, design maturity or the "right moment" which has all passed in time during the last five years. The research is done and various start-up programs have reached completion. Boeing had a plan-in-hand years ago after it stopped making the 757 back in 2005. It needed to build the 787, 777X and the Max before it could devote resources to the "NMA". Most of all it needed firmed launch customer firming of sales. No MOU's, Intents or order Conversions as experienced at the Max-10 launching. It just needs a stand-alone sales number for its NMA before launch announcements, then Boeing excuses of using market research, timing and design maturity makes sense.

Boeing already knows the NMA plan as it awaits for its customer(s) for pulling the trigger. The bigger the launch in unit numbers, the greater the long term success. 

Let's face it, the 737 Max-10 announcements at Paris was underwhelming with all the conversions intents and MOU's announced at the show. No one took anything away from Paris except from John Leahy's Boeing bluster comments about how few real firmed sales had during Boeing's 737-Max -10 launch announcement. Launch momentum was lost at the show by the plethora of conditional transactions where it only had less than a hundred direct and firmed 737 Max 10 sales for its launch. Quietly, Boeing is picking off one MOU at a time by turning the Intents into firm orders without much fanfare.

A new aircraft launch is all about the show and not accountant's sharpened pencils and legal pads of information telling a story having 360 737 Max 10's with firmed orders, MOU's or Intents including any options.

Boeing wants to bring clarity to any launch going forward. People in the industry walked away confused after the Paris announcements for the 737 Max 10. After months of analysis since Paris, the analyst can only factor in what has happened since the show and no one is paying attention much to the 737-Max 10 launch announcement with some of its MOU's, since firmed up.

My own data on the 737 Max Launch, indicates the following 360 or so Max 10's where agreed upon where 63 are newly firm orders classificaion, 90 remain MOU's and  214 are purchases out from Conversions classification (those from prior 737 orders booked). It remains a mess to sort out the launch other than say About 360 Max ten's are probably in play having sacrificed some of Boeing's 737 Max-8 orders to get to a 366 number.

The Boeing's NMA launch doesn't want a cluster of different announcements for its new family of aircraft (AKA 797). It just wants about 300 units ordered representing its launch customers before anything is announced! 

Boeing is waiting those customer's signatures and then using this interim time period for do due diligence aircraft R & D going forward. The timing for a launch should be from 2016-2019. Some say Boeing has waited too long for an Airbus answer. and should of already been way down the road from a NMA  launch date. If there is no answer to an unknown NMA configuration in the market place, time does not play into this process only to the extent of available resources and obtaining customer's firm ordering.

Ryan Air Re-positions Vacations Like A Cruise Ship's Makes Seasonal Changes

A seasonal adjustment not caused by climate but by under planning has caused Ryan Air to cancel flights through March 2018. This affects about 400,000 of its passenger customers over the same period of time. Since Ryan Air has captured a market for 129 million travelers in its vast airline system, the impact affects only a small percentage of its customers over the next six months. The margin of customers inconvenienced is amounts to  .62% of its customer base for the next six months or about 99.4% of its passenger will not be affected.

The problem stems from scheduling adequate  vacation time slots for it pilots and crews. The perfect work storm has occured and there is no way out of the fix until it sorts out vacation schedules while at the same time expanding new staffing resources. The flight cancellations directly affects Ryan Air's revenue stream for those estimated 400,000 customers who will not travel with the airline during the next six months. This lost revenue stream has altered several of Ryan Air's aspirations for fleet expansion and further canceling a merger with Alitalia from Italy.

The set back should be a one -off problem during 2017-2018 flying season. Ryan Air expects to resume its full-on growth program by 2019 as it finds more pilots, crews and air frames for its growth. Having a better control for its vacation scheduling by March of 2018 should right its operational ship.

Ryan Air is no longer considered a small player in the airline business as any kind of operational mishaps of this nature tend to spell big financial impacts, if not addressed ahead of time.  

F-35 Concurrency Leaves 108 of Its Type Behind

There was a theory called "concurrency". The methodology for concurrency is to make an initial copy and then return back to that copy for updating it into some futuristic version from its origin. The F-35 is that prototypical attempt. The concurrent theory puts versions 2F, 3i and 3F to the test. Each reiteration of software is a concurrent up grade of the aircraft where the maker can go back and upgrade the aircraft within its own configuration. The other aspect of concurrency allows the maker to change firm upgrades when innovation solves a problem such as in the case of ejector seat malfunctioning and it can go back concurrently with new ejector seats and replace the faulty ones in all previously delivered aircraft. Concurrency is depended upon as the F-35 evolves through its development phases, but now a problem arises with the F-35.

The initial F-35 delivered are so far away from being concurrent with the new F-35's coming off the assembly line it makes the first 108 F-35's obsolete as a war fighter and it cannot be mustered for combat without billions of dollars spent renovating those first F-35 already fielded. The early 108 F-35's are a pain to make it concurrent as a fully capable war fighter. The military is considering making the early copies as training aircraft since the Air Force Navy and Marines have no dedicated 5th generation training fighters in its inventory, as all those currently flying should be marked for full combat capability as soon as the F-35 development phase ends. 

A decision would be made by the time Full Rate Production begins. If Lockheed can produce 140 F-35's a year at a full rate and at lower cost it would be a matter of months before every of the 108 early builds could be replaced with fully capable war fighters. The military does need training aircraft and the most expensive F-35's are all those early builds which may be turned into 5th generation training aircraft it sorely needs. Concurrency works after the development phase is completed.

The bottom line, is concurrency has put the military into a fine fix as Ollie from Laurel and Hardy would say. It just so happens that Tax Payer money is expendable.

Paper On The Ground Says Boeing Sets UP 797 Office

Boeing 797 Office is phase one of setting up.


A memo was discovered saying Mark Jenks will lead the 797 program forward, but that's not all. The former 787 program chief will also lead a group towards making a way forward for new designs and innovations for its aircraft making. My own take.

Reference: Rueters news

Seatle Times Feature: Dominic Gates

The slip of information is not a confirmation for a 797 program commitment or announcement for a the next "airshow debut", but it does validate more money is being spent for office space having big blue doors with 797 stenciled on it.

The Paris airshow 2017 offered a "797" teaser and it may announce as early as 2019 as a follow through at the next Paris Airshow and right in front of the Airbus Pavilion😜

Even though it was earlier stated by Winging It, (an 797 announcement would come at Farnborough 2020), this latest on-the-floor memo indicates a ramp-up for the next Paris extravaganza in 2019. Boeing is further along than anticipated with its 797 concept.