Best Boeing Deal on Day 2 at Paris Airshow

Okay, the biggest deals are not always the most important deal. Okay Airlines from China, bought 15 more Max counting eight of the Max-10's and seven of the Max-8's. A parting shot leaving the Boeing pavilion had a "by-the-way" cause for five 787-9's  committed for future fleet expansion, but that won't count until contracted in full.

The reason it is the best deal today, because this exemplifies the world trade reach at the 2017 show. China showed-up and ordered which makes one ponder if more are to come from China this week as announced deals.

Boeing has employed a new marketing strategy over previous campaigns using the all-hands-on-deck mantra. This strategy is self evident when the Boeing Blog Master, Randy Tenseth goes under ground from writing any Boeing quips for over two months on his Journal found on Boeing.com. It feels like the marketing team efforts has paid off at Paris as Boeing is rolling up a formidable 355 sales and commitments on day one. The second day is already showing a trickle coming forward in an unrelenting pace. It won't match Monday but it will keep this years sales discussion going throughout the show.

Okay, so its day two and fifteen more Max's are unloaded onto the Boeing orders books. An early indication the marketing team is everywhere this year when so many single aisle orders for the Max-10 especially from India. Least we not forget United Airlines who expressed a strong interest in Boeing's latest 737 version could close the show with an announcement ordering 50 or so 737 Max 10's. Just saying, Okay?

Chinese Airline Okay Airways Orders 15 737 MAX Airplanes

So the Boeing Best Deal day 2 is from Okay Airlines from China. Okay!

Best Boeing Deal of The Day at Paris

Ever heard of Monarch Airlines? It acted on no impulse and filled an order for 15 Max 737's. The importance of this deal is not lost on Boeing strategist. This was once an Airbus customer and now it is a Boeing customer primarily ordering the Max for its operations in travel.

ATW quotes:

"UK leisure carrier Monarch Airlines has firmed options on a further 15 Boeing 737 MAX 8s, valued at $1.7 billion at current list prices, and signed a support joint venture with Boeing."

Monarch is transitioning from an Airbus to a Boeing fleet, which should be completed by the end of 2022.

“It is a rare transition to go entirely from one manufacturer to another and we are pleased with how it is moving. We already have NGs operating. We are very happy with our early sight of the aircraft and are in the process of getting them into the air. As a customer, it has been seamless,” Monarch CEO Andrew Swaffield said.

“The decision to exercise our option for an additional 15 737 MAX 8 aircraft is a clear illustration of confidence in Monarch’s future success.”

A rare but important aviation transaction when a customer switches out its fleet to another framer than what it had historically had done. With a prior 30 ordered Max 737's and now the 15 options firmed, Monarch has completed a goal of the initial signing order. Bragging rights here goes to Boeing. Even if no one has heard of "Monarch" its remains a major turn of events in the airplane wars. 

Malaysia Air Seeks A Low Price For A330 NEO's

Even though Malaysia Air has not decided on an Airbus A330 NEO it is reported that price is the sticking point. A break through deal is not depended on price alone but on a delivery schedule as well. Airbus can and is probably dropping its price offering in this case, but it may not be able to deliver on a timely basis for Malaysia Air's expansion and replacement plans. Boeing becomes the lady in waiting in this case.

Let's examine a Boeing chance at this order as it is named in aviation circles as a player for this deal. Leveraging a price is done by Boeing's room presence. Airbus does not want to lose this deal and is in the throes of a production start-up with its A330-NEO. It can and will move to a competitive production mode for this type of aircraft. Any delays would make the 787 an attractive alternative. 

Here is the fleet dichotomy of Malaysia's Fleet in Fig. 1 below: Available through Wikipedia data

A quick review of the fleet makes room for the 787 as it would bump out the A-330 NEO presence if Malaysia starts a fleet change with new aircraft. Boeing is still chasing the deal but has some talking points remaining. 

• Boeing has production slots available
• Higher Fuel prices match future efficiency needs
• Boeing Fleet presence completes Malaysia's commonality of operations from Max-Medium Wide Body. 

The current fleet of A330-300 could be replaced with either the 787-9 or 787-10 thus flipping Malaysia Air towards Boeing. If and only if Malaysia Air sees its fleet expansion moving towards longer than 6,000 mile routes. The 787-10 would slot into fleet renewal of current Malaysia Air's A330-300 (15) and then go further with the 787-9 as a fleet expansion move. 

Boeing would make room for either type in its production queue as it now approaches completing its 787-8 backlog and is well established with its 787-9 output. The 787-10 backlog sits at 149 and some of those orders may seek a further out delivery time than originally requested. It is a belief if Boeing can find production slots compliant with Malaysia Air's plans it may sweep away the Airbus order out from underneath them. Boeing would have to make a price case if it can, as much as Airbus needs, and Airbus is better positioned to do so with its A330 NEO proposal.

September 2017 is the projected deal closing with an Airbus deal by media sources. Boeing's outside shot could be aided by rising fuel prices. If Boeing makes a late genuine offer for placing wide body orders it would have to have other sweeteners such as a 797 offering as a launch customer.

EL AL signs for 16 787 Blunting A Late A350 Order Surge In May

Recently, Airbus booked 20 of its A350-9's from China Southern during May 2017. Now Boeing wraps up an El Al order yesterday for 16 of its 787-9's. Dueling order books before the Paris Airshow is very interesting as it suggests a very active order year in the wide body realm. Wide Bodies are not dead in 2017 as many have written-off.

Many more widebody orders will materialize out of the mist before year's end. Air shows may become more of an announcement speed bump as so many deals are in the works. I will suggest Boeing Market VP Randy Tinseth is so busy he has abandon writing on his "Randy's Journal Blog".  

His last commentary happened last April 7, 2017 (or it came from his staff). A typically timely blog seems to be too much when so much is happening in the airplane market place. 

Expect many steady orders until the end of the year like El Al's recently announced 16 wide body 787-9 and 8's just booked. This has been in the works since 2015. 

Many an observer is witnessing a real ordering dog fight between Airbus and Boeing, especially in the wide body arena. The Airshow venue maybe reserved for the single aisle battle between the NEO and the Max. 

EL AL purchases 16 Boeing Dreamliners !

All Things 787 Indicates 145 Processed During 2017

After looking at the All Things 787 charts there are listed 92 of Boeing's 787's for delivery during June - December of this year. After five plus months of delivery processing 53 of the 787 were delivered at a 10.6 a month pace. Currently there are 57 delivered through June 10, 2017. The charts also indicate ninety-two  787's should be completing the process by year's end from June 1. This will indicate a total of 145, 787 for the year (53+92= 145). Whether or not that quantity are received by its customers is a strict guess. This depends on the customers urgency, financial ability, and changing market conditions which could all contribute towards a delay on any delivery.

Boeing is positioned to meet guidance for about 138 units delivered during 2017 and it is feasible it could go long and reach beyond 140 of this type delivered during this year. Another observation is Boeing has blown by the Airbus A-350 backlog margin and continues to take orders in a wide body down year. The air shows are yet to come and it will be interesting to see everything shakes out during the Paris Air Show. Backlog is a function of Orders and Deliveries. Boeing having a lower 787 backlog while it has a strong production outflow gives Boeing opportunity to sell more 787 for relevant delivery in a corporation's timeline. However, taking more wide body orders over its competitor also increases financial strength which will reduce its 27 billion deferred cost money  pit.

If Boeing processes 92 from June 1- December 31 1017, it will maintain a build to completion pace of 13 of its 787 a month. This will be a increasing pace as the 787-10 matriculates itself into the production process.

From F-35 Fusion To Commercial Fusion Spins The B-797

The F-35 takes its flying super computer and puts it into function by melding together a complete picture of the battle airspace and use of its weapons. They call it fusion the in F-35 cockpit and its deadly for its adversaries.

Boeing is on the edge of its 20 year R&D march to the 797. Take lessons learned, proven new technology and emerging technology in small doses, then fuse them together into a 797. Boeing doesn't have to look over its shoulder spying Airbus and its NEO because they are stretching further than a New Engine Option a constant Airbus theme. Boeing is going to build something quick and sky shaking in the form of a 797. The fusion comes from its bag of proprietary tricks from engineering, marketing, and its supply bins.

Speculation becomes a currency for this topic. The long wait for a New Medium Aircraft (NMA) is closing with an announcement coming in the next 18 months. The 797 NMA naming is slotted into a hallow slot within the family of Boeing Aircraft. Fusing together Boeing success suggests it will take a road can't and won't follow. Its A321 will become obsolete and a new Airbus frame from the white paper process is ten years off while Boeing will have another five year head start. Ten years if  counting launch customer announcements. Boeing is farther down road than it would like Airbus to know in this case.

Much like the 787 with its revolutionary plastic and all electric concepts, the 797 will reach back and then reach forward within Boeing's objective constraints. After considering this, the 797 will be plastic with a different body. An engine build is up for grabs from three engine makers. A guess is CFM, GE, and Rolls. The engine must come early in the process as the frame formation must work in harmony with the engine mount.

Speculation on things already available:

• Extensive CFRP use.
• Ceramic engine components
• Laminar Flow Technology
• Core electrical architecture
• Big Windows

Speculation on things coming forward

• Elliptical Body
• Extended Range capability
• New Engine Technology
• Use of New CFRP processes using less autoclave application 

Proprietary Engineering comes from Boeing's back lot which even makes Walt Disney envious of his "Imagineering" world. However, today is spending speculation into reality which is a good occupation. Boeing at least is fusing its technology flying into the gap.

The 797 Passenger Experience Maybe A Boeing Egg

The 797 could be built on elliptical lines as depicted below in model "a". Standing at the front of the airplane and looking back is an elliptical cross section. The center line from A  port side to B starboard side would be at the seating passenger level. The ceiling crown could be about 8 Ft from floor to crown. Below the center horizontal line is luggage storage, ancillary freight and aircraft gear. 

Fig. 1 The  "Winging It" 797 MOM/proposed body cross section.

The final design would incorporate the appropriate width and height for the body. However, from this basic design theme would make passenger seating and space at a premium  for the experience. The stronger CFRP advantage will allow a plane framer to find the exact body strength from its width and elliptical height. Boeing has this on paper somewhere near Seattle, WA. Whether Boeing has a rabbit in its hat is hinted by higher-ups near microphones. An all new airplane that will skew the competition into a panic could come from everything 787 but built on an oval. Seat pitch would probably not improve over other models but a seven across seating arrangement could go 20" or more wide quite nicely with this configuration.

The penalty for the design is limiting freight space in the belly. The shape could increase lift (lifting body concept) without having any significant drag increase. Pair the design shape above with a taller landing gear allowing appropriate engine power could make this a world beater and tough to copy as Airbus is known to do.  

The other trick Boeing is working on is reducing weight with a dual aisle arrangement. The elliptical body may do this as its lighter than a 787 frame. The sketch above is exaggerated as to what an actual body cross section would look like as Boeing would push the side in by inches in proportion to the elliptical height as being more likely than this example. However, Boeing would like to find about 20 more inches across from a circle design. All of this enhances the passenger and flight experience for which many airlines are seeking. 

The Boeing doodling in the lab CAD computer can make a paper airplane that works well as the 787 did. All kinds of shapes and sizes are tested first at lab level and then it moves into a wind tunnel model for validation of flight characteristics from the CAD tinkering.

This could show up in Paris later this month but I doubt it. Paris will be all about the 737-10 announcement.

What Others Have Whispered About a Boeing MOM

Many blogs from Winging It have attempted to get its wings around Boeing's Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft. The refresher talking points about what Winging It thinks is simple (see points below)

• Its gotta go 5,000 miles
• It will be two aisle seven across seating
• Plastic wings and metal body
• Lower cabin pressure equaling the 787
• Down sized from big bodied engine offering

Now DNA from India enters the aviation rumble with its assessment:

"We have looked at the mild and we have looked at the wild and I can tell you we know that if you are going to address that market, you need a new airplane," Tinseth told Reuters after a two-day meeting of airline leaders in Mexico.

The clue is offered, "All New MOM" aircraft from Boeing.

DNA Reported Randy Tenseth:

"The two mid-market models, designed to carry about 220-260 passengers over 3,500 to 5,000 nautical miles (6,400-9,260 km), will also have a wing resembling the distinctive stiletto design of the 787 Dreamliner but with significant internal differences." 

DNA says; "Carbon composites allow manufacturers to make complex pieces in one shape and are well suited to the more elliptical design that Boeing has in mind for the new mid-market fuselage."

Winging It proposed an all metal body in earlier articles but the goal post have moved with technology and a conceptual elliptical plastic body, thus maintaining passenger space. Advances on a build with CFRP makes a case for a plastic body. Every day something new replaces something sort of new. A metal body in the single aisle to Middle of the Market aisle  dual aisle maybe too heavy for a all new MOM  as Boeing wants a template for follow-on design and metal is so yesterday. DNA points out weight and space are critical criteria for a MOM. It can't be too heavy or too narrow and it must fly 5,000 miles and DNA suggest a narrow under body with limited freight space.

Limited freight saves weight, an elliptical oval shape plays into better lift and drag coefficients for flying bodies having a narrower crown and bottom than waste line area. It is built for passenger travel and not everything or the kitchen sink goes into the belly as it will be built for the passenger. The main thing again is weight reduction and an elliptical plastic body achieves less weight, less drag for body width, and more passenger space at the same time. Hence 5,000 miles is its distance bench mark. 

A new frame from scratch allows for new and future engines without having a suffering of little space with ground limitations for which the 737 has for its engines. A taller landing gear gives the MOM the just right engine stance. A clue coming forward would be if a single source engine builder like a 737's talking points or dual engine maker from the 787 plan. If Boeing decides having multiple engine makers does not make the sale, it will go all out with one maker for the MOM. Hence a battle with CFM,GE, and Rolls. Winging IT places a wager on GE engines for the MOM.

What's new over the 787 or 777X? A slew of Boeing innovations accumulated over the last decade. Laminar flow characteristics on the body skin, potentially new CRFP process which eliminates autoclave and pressure treatments, and the possibility of an all electric architecture  similar to the 787. Weight reductions and efficiency will guide the the MOM into existence. Boeing will have an preponderance of "Off-Its Shelf" parts and engineering compliment going into the MOM. If Boeing has already sunk costs into R&D then use it if applicable. If a vendor has a better solution use it. Mentioning losing weight again becomes redundant but is the critical feature of the 5,000 mile MOM and that makes it viable in the world market place.

Will Paris Be A Narrow Body Show?

The up and coming airshow at the Paris Le Bourget Field may promise to be an exciting single aisle or narrow body show: The Boeing 737-10 awaits announcement with orders maybe from these South East aviation players.

Lion Air Could Help Launch 737-10

Maybe:

• Lion Air -100 units
• Spice Jet-75
• Jet Airways-50

All come from South East Asia and India. China has a stake at the Paris Airshow too and there maybe a surprise order at the show from the Chinese region. It will be difficult to speculate what will happen but it is important to note Boeing may carry the show with orders. Singapore may announce its intent for wide body orders with a final signing for 20 777X and 19 more of the 787-10's for its fleet. IF and if only these orders bare fruition during the show, Boeing will have billions in its column.

Airbus is not sitting still and is working harder to make a splash at the show. However, if Boeing captures half the single aisle tally it will add a preponderance of wide bodied aircraft over Airbus aspiration to its tally and fatten the 2017 order book.

Having an order coups over Airbus would definitely make an inroad into the Airbus Single Aisle lead of about 1,200 A-321 over the 400 737-9. A new Boeing model announcement may break the Airbus spell it has over the Single Aisle class.

  

May Summary 787 Reports

Boeing has produced and delivered 12 of its 787 during the month of May. The second half of the year promises to be more robust than the 53 of its 787 delivered. The end of June should rebound the Boeing Trend line when reaching for an estimated 135 of its 787 by year's end. Even though the production queue looks lean in number, it becomes a signal for how efficient the 787 program has become since 2011. Program maturity suggests if Boeing has about a thirty (see fig. 5) in its production line, it will produce and deliver about a dozen by months end where in May 2016 it may have forty-four in its production process while delivering only ten of its 787 by any months end. Boeing should exceed a twelve a month delivered for several months during the next seven months while the other five months during this period should deliver around twelve units (+/-) making for the approximate 135 unit year delivered. It needs about 12 a month (83) for seven months to reach 135-138 units delivered during 2017 and is positioned to do so.  

Fig. 1

The orders portion above is an estimation since Boeing has not officially posted its order book for May which would include West Jet's 10 unit 787 order.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5