Boeing's Five Year Look and Plans Expectation

The five year planning and production controls are important factors for determining the long term outlook. Even using a basic build-up model will help determine a direction Boeing will take in its productivity scheduling. For the sake of simplicity the below chart is just a segue into the fine details as to how Boeing may plan its production or how Boeing will perform in the near term of each year’s production goals based on past data.

A build-up becomes complex when using just-in-time strategy for controlling resources for making something big. Boeing only needs parts at a specific time and does not want storage of parts in over abundance. It just wants parts for the next thirty days for this example. Storing too much supplies for building airplanes cost production dollars. The ideal lean production model would seek a just in time parts bin. A build-up planner only uses parts in predetermined optimal availability for building an airplane over the next 30 days.

The ideas in this example looks at 30 days and how many airplanes it may build during this period of time. If it tends to build 42 single aisle in a 30 day period then a build-up chart may call for a two week supply of parts in storage allowing time for parts delivery delays without shortages to the production floor. In this case two weeks represents 21 sets of 737 parts on hand in storage. Everyday a computer tracks the supply inventory and makes an order based on how many 737 sets are on hand. If only 18 sets are on hand it auto orders 3 more sets. Each day this occurs its suppliers can respond in a two week period supplying those complete sets for building aircraft. This is an over simplification example. It gets more complex than this in a hurry.

Below is a chart using five years of past data for formulating how much production resources are needed going forward. Each model is represented whether it’s a prior generation unit or next generation unit. A 737 is a 737. If it’s a NG or Max its counted as a 737 and so forth for all other models. The element identified are as follows:

·      The past five years of orders combined by model

·      Dividing total orders by five years

·      Total of deliveries for five years by model 

·      An average of deliveries made over the same five years.

 Fig. 1

The above Fig. 1 chart is historical data from Boeing's website. Using the 737 column for simplification of its production flows. The five year period is important standard since it is a relevant business time period range. It is very difficult to project a forecast with any degree of accuracy beyond five years. Most customers update its outlook through its annual reporting which would include the next five years of planning. A moving statistical base uses prior years for formulating future years  trends statistically. 

·      A total of 5,349 737's were ordered since January 2011 through December 2016. This is the five year basis for which averages are taken. During this time Boeing Averaged 1,070 single aisle orders a year it is also delivering 539 a year of its 737 during this same period.

·      The orders to delivery ratio for this period is 1.98 or better stated for every two 737's ordered one 737 was delivered. The ideal orders-to-delivery is a 1 to 1 one relationship, thus maintaining a static backlog. The .98 factor suggests increasing production by some calculated build-up amount. The .98 factor is the amount above the one to one ratio goal.

·      In the 747 column the ratio has dipped below one by a negative .52 factor. This suggest Boeing needs to reduce its production output significantly.

Going across the table a picture quickly emerges for Boeing. Increase 737 production and implement leveling the 787 production capacity until additional sales are added. The marketing team has its gauntlet thrown down across the board. It must increase orders during the next five years for all models. Where it is likely the 747 will retire. This year in 2017, a slow order period will strain the backlog and production build-up.

This basic view demonstrates Boeing has its work cut out in the near term within its several market segments. Production decisions rely on pre-set production build-up requirements, otherwise adjustments may occur during the year. Boeing has reduced the 747 to only one frame a month and it may go lower to .5 frames a month.

The 787 program may curb its production capacity from 145 units over the next two years and then could reduce productivity to only about ten 787's a month until sales pick up. The world's largest producer of aircraft will run out of productivity backlog before Airbus does at this time. Boeing is making inroads with Airbus in the single aisle segment. It leads airbus in the wide body segment but an end is in sight for some of its bigger models such as the 747. 

Is The Era of Mega Orders Over?

This is a perplexing question for both mega builder Airbus and Boeing where they both come out and stated it will be a soft sales year. Boeing has stated it can replicate 2016 order numbers during its 2017 campaign. Airbus acknowledged a tough year ahead for maintaining its blistering pace set during the last half dozen years. Typically, Airbus has kept an above 1,000 airplanes ordered for about a half dozen years. It likes to announce massive end of year orders in January of each year for the prior year ending. This year Boeing had a shot and added over two hundred orders at the end of the year, but couldn't catch Airbus as it held out with its last minutes orders reported.

The year to date ending in February 2017 has Boeing with 58 net orders and Airbus with -8 net orders after sixty days.

2017 has started slow as Boeing has a nominal lead over Airbus, which can quickly evaporate in one Airbus reported deal. However, it also means the prediction of a slower order year is probably a reality from its own analysis. If Boeing can hold serve by replicating last year’s numbers and Airbus finally has padded its backlog too far, customers can wait before placing another order with it. 

A Competitive travel market keeps the mega manufactures in balance of each other. The airline who can renew or expand fleets the fastest will best its competitors. Those customers are always seeking timely deliveries from the builder. The plates are spinning in the air. A builder needs orders and another builder needs production and its customers need airplanes just-in-time. 

The 2017 summary awaits the airshow announcements and December surprises before correctly analyzing who is right on the question of the era of the mega order being over.

F-35 Procurement Score Card

Long has the F-35 been coming to the forefront. The US government has waited to see the white of Lockheed eyes before moving forward with a robust allotment of F-35 block buys. It needed milestones, political will, and good news before the onslaught of block buys for the F-35 program could head-up its steam. Sometimes Lockheed would build the F-35 on its dime and then milk the US Government with installment payments before a Block buy was completed. When a block buy was approved like Low Rate Initial Production 9 (LRIP 9) much of the work was already an item on Lockheed's production floor, thus avoiding expensive restarts of the production when funding had yet not been approved.

Fig. 1   F-35 Block Buys in Units and types

A second strategy evolved having a massive block buy effort for saving cost on the program when using an old school thinking of... “economy of scale’. The more ordered, the price drops as Lockheed can now expand its production and buy parts and assemblies in mass quantity.  Lockheed could rely on its suppliers to drop supply prices for services rendered in a large scale.

Analysis of the table above in Figure 1 represents a recent signing of Lot 10 for 90 F-35's for Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP). When will that end and go to Full Rate Production (FRP)? It is hard to say however, lot 10-14 has been classified as a LRIP status for the time being. Lockheed is building production space over the next two years. The testing phase awaits 3F and 4F coding validation before allowing Lockheed a ramp up the F-35 program to FRP. The block 12-14 contract anticipates Lockheed moving forward. 

Breaking down the numbers and time is a guess and here is my best guess. Lot 10 building starts in 2017 going forward to sometime in 2018. Lot 11 is not yet a signed contract as it should take a greater part of 2017 to sign it. Lots 12-14 is the granddaddy of all contracts to date. This is the real costs reduction negotiation where President Trump will involve himself during this period. It is different because it is not a lot-by-lot contract process, but an all-in-one for the three lots having a fixed price of about 85 million per aircraft cost (without engines), I would think. It is a contracting for 410 units of the F-35 through this three lots buying strategy for the US military and its partnered nations around the world.

The time line for all this production becomes a mystery but an educated guess based on blocks buys that tend to follow a rule of a year's production equals one lot. Using that as a thumbnail sketch Lot 10 should be completed during 2018 and then Lot 11 and so forth. Listed above is five lots thus five years of production with concurrent testing using software 3F and 4F.  By the end of the fifth year there should be 629 of the F-35’s delivered to the US and its partnered nations starting from lot 10 going forward. By 2022 the US could have about 600 F-35's in its service. Some of which remain as testing aircraft but a great majority combat ready fighters. 

It will have taken from 2011 to 2022 to get to a point where the F-35 will have taken its right full place as a feared fighter. By then the pilots are still discovering new ways of using the F-35 capabilities as pilots learning becomes a works in progress during the next 40-50 years.

Boeing Must Formulate The 797 As An Added Value For Its Famliy of Aircraft Before Announcing.

"Udvar-Hazy isn't convinced that Boeing has figured out the magic blend of price, performance and production costs that will make the 797 a best-seller".

He has something in mind but doubts Boeing's resolve for such a project. However, United Airlines begs to differ as it smugly acknowledges Boeing's sales pitch honed in San Diego recently. 

"What we've seen so far is very, very interesting to us," Andrew Levy, United's chief financial officer, said in an interview. "We certainly hope Boeing launches the airplane. We think there is a need for it."

Two leasing companies and one major later there is talk for which makes Airbus anxious as it has more production dragons to slay in the mean time. Boeing is looking for a three customers announcement for the 797. It will go deep into the 787 play book when forming this aircraft. It will only offer a 797 if it can drain the Boeing money pit it built up from the 787 program by using the bag of tricks Udvar Hazy was looking for in his statement.

Udvar-Hazey is crafty purveyor of aircraft and when he sees a gold nugget on the ground he will fail to mention its existence while United airline is an over anxious prospector liking the assay report beyond expectations. There are others who could use this version of a 797 and many are the ones who make a living over the Atlantic. Could this be the Ryan Air Silver bullet , or the Norwegian Air Saturday Night Special? Winging It thinks so and Boeing has a grasp of what its customer will do in this case. Udvar-Hazey is a middle man of leasing and his customers are full of wide bodies ordered. Boeing would need to make a business case directly to Udvar-Hazey's customers before he will show his hand in favor of a Boeing concept. When the announcement shoe drops for the 797 there will be a robust list of customers sweeping in for this latest gold rush of airplane purchasing.

The A321-NEO taught Boeing a severe lesson on airplane gamesmanship. Boeing was stalled over the 787 program by billions spent.  Airbus stuck it to Boeing with its largest single aisle making so many orders. Boeing has not recovered since that NEO play. It is looking for redemption in the market place and the 797 could be that counter as the 787-8 or 737 Max family doesn't slam the A321 NEO out its airspace. The market place is rapidly moving towards the Middle of The Market (MOM) without even Boeing sitting at the MOM table. A Boeing MOM would put Airbus in a bind as it wrestles for market dominance in the Wide Bodied realm. The A-380 is a sunk cost and a lost leader. The A-350 family failed to over-take the 787 family of aircraft. In fact there is little room remaining in this market since an Airbus passing lane has merged into the main traffic lane.

Boeing, after-all, will pull the MOM trigger under its airshow smirk in 2017. It is competing in a market place dog fight with Airbus. Out of spite it will announce this A321 NEO beater, and Boeing has already the customers who will support this offering. China, an emerging market, and is geographically situated for a five thousand mile duo aisle circle. The 787-300 was dropped because Boeing did not have a Chinese foot print at that time. Another decade later, China needs a higher density requirement where a single aisle is not well suited. Now there are at least three more 797 customers in the mix coming from China. People like the "Scoot" people need a MOM for its region flying in a 5,000 mile circle from Singapore. 

Without even going to the Middle Eastern airline giants, a keen market for the region's Euro-traveler has a definite use for a 797 MOM. India to Paris is within its range as an example. Then Haikou (Hainan) to Sydney Australia is also under 5,000 miles. A picture is unfolding for the airlines in a quest for a MOM having 240 seats going 5,000 miles while fitting in every terminal gate.

The driver stopping Boeing at this time is the list price or deal price for such an aircraft. Boeing knows the production and R & D costs of this paper example and it thinks it has it dialed-in costing to within several million per copy. If and only if Boeing can find five hundred orders in the initial market, it will be go time. This will be no moon shot as Udvar-Hazey fears. It will be a high flying off the rack melding of everything already spent building The Max, 787, and the 777X. The work is already set in Boeing's concrete and it’s a matter of airplane execution at this point. In less than six more months something greater will be said other than the United quote of "looking very interesting". 

Winging It Has A World Footprint

“Winging It”, has been provided data by Google Blogging internal statistics. Below is a worldwide footprint of where its readers come and from what part of our world. The remaining nations not ranked represents about 30 countries below.

Below is the very first Winging It Blog Posting 1,611 days ago. This also marks the 1,060th Winging It Post in 4.5 years!

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

British Airways Announce Start Of First 787 Construction

All things 787: Boeing gets a break in the weather, send up 3 787s for flight tests Announcement OF BA 787 Start Of Construction

The World's Biggest Builder, Airbus or Boeing?

The information may mark a plummeting of orders taken for the mega aircraft builders during 2017. However, it should not mark a declining production pace for the current year 2017. These numerical relationships will lead to conclusions about the long term health’s of the two manufacturers in the world market place. The place to start on this endeavor is the definitions about the charts below

• Backlog: The number of Units on order but not delivered since beginning.

• Year To Date: Current point in time of year summing totals occurring since first of same year.

• Book: Airplanes Ordered YTD

• Bill: Airplanes delivered for money is billed and received YTD

• Book to Bill Ratio (BB): For airplanes ordered are divided by airplanes delivered, in units and value. The constant pace objective is for a 1/1 ratio. Any BB rate under “1” suggest a shrinking backlog. Any book to bill rate above “1” indicates a growing backlog.

• List Price: The catalog price without any deductions applied from its transaction agreements. Usually the actual sale price is about 40% to 50% under its respective list price. However, the charts below only assumes the published list price valuations by the manufacturer for every aircraft ordered or delivered.

Fig.1 Summary Report Please read guide below Fig. 9 charts for explanations.

Fig 2. Boeing Single Aisle Orders

Fig. 3 Wide Body Orders Reported

Fig. 4 Boeing Single Aisle Delivered as reported

Fig. 5 Boeing Wide Bodies Delivered as reported

Fig. 6 Airbus Single Aisle Orders

Fig. 7 Airbus Wide Body Orders

Fig. 8 Airbus Single Aisle Delivered

Fig. 9  Airbus Wide Body Delivered

Disclaimer and qualification about the data:

Boeing has the lead as the World’s Largest Airplane producer at this point in time during 2017. Investors may want to examine this “as is” data and a general guide. The manufacturing performance and future potential requires a more exacting analysis. A more critical and detailed accounting can be obtained from the respective company’s financial records having complimentary annotations containing exceptions and notations for every of its account status. Therefore, this summary is not intended for financial investment advice nor is it intended as a guidance for any future stock investment. It is only intended as a general snapshot of comparative data with its historical backlog and current year to date information provided by each manufacturer’s websites.  

What is Known:

As a starting point for this year’s charts, the backlog on January 1, 2017 is the beginning number using all aircraft orders and deliveries from its beginning. Boeing Backlog is 5,695 units and Airbus Backlog is 6,836 units. It is important to understand that during the prior years, each manufacturer has written-off some unfilled orders as programs expire or the models are no longer required due to advances and replacement models such as the original 737 is replaced by the 737 Max and some orders in time maybe written-off containing models no longer available.

The backlog can be adjusted at the start of each year as more information becomes available while adjusting the year end reporting and recognizing changes from closing accounting entries.

The start of this year’s backlog is derived from both Airbus and Boeing data available on its respective websites. The number uses list prices and model types of undelivered units for this basis. The YTD information adds or subtracts from this base number establish at the beginning of the year. In this case the beginning of 2017.

Boeing has had a middling first two month when reaching production expectation and orders placed where Airbus has a dismal start for 2017. The orders and delivery number for 2017 through period 2 are available with this report. One big month of orders by Airbus could catch Boeing and it likely Airbus will have a few surprises by year's end, as it usually likes to report mega orders through any December 31, ** ending. Boeing pulled an Airbus routine during 2016 by announcing a large quantity of last minute orders as if spying the competition is alive and well. It is important to Airbus to always go big over anything else on the planet, like a spoiled child wanting its Ice Cream.

It must frustrate the Airbus YTD people as it shot its order wad at the end of 2016. Both manufacturers will have a "same production different year" experience, but Airbus drained its swamp at year's end before 2017. However, Boeing is plodding along its merry way having multiple orders in waiting and some unfinished business yet to reveal itself after the first two months of 2017. Expect an Airbus order revival by quarters end.

The third period data will be interesting for both framers. The BB ratio starts to take form by that time and onlookers will start to predict BB information as financial pablum for investor's. Winging It has no predictive input at this time. This is a spectator sport having a Vegas slot machine running 24/7 in the background. However, dice will be rolled just as lemmings jump into the ocean once in a while.

Backlog and what it may mean to the Framers: 

Backlog is the wick length on the lantern. Resources are the supply chain, manufacturing capacities and capable personnel pooling up as oil for the lantern. The flame size is the delivery capability. Airbus has more wick for its oil than Boeing has for its flame. Airbus cannot turn up the flame inspite of wick length where Boeing has turn up its flame consuming more wick and oil making it the world's largest aircraft maker at this time. If Boeing is to sustain the flame it must have more oil and wick where Airbus needs more oil and flame before its wick becomes too long to burn efficiently. This is the picture of these charts. Its a balancing act and requires constant attention. The relative numbers provided suggests, where adjustments must be made for the strongest long burning flame possible.

The Pre Announcement 797 To Do List Summarized

What must happen before the 797 becomes real to the market:

ü No show stoppers from R&D

ü No new technology not already in service

Ø New Wing designs

v New engine awarded with yet to be determined leading engine maker. Rolls, PW or CFM or a combination using GE.

v Pre Announcement commitments in-hand greater than two hundred aircraft.

v Major Airline as Launch Customer

Ø Comprehensive review of program costs expectations

v A Defined break-even point for aircraft delivered

ü A defined range capability true class type and not a another endless model line coming from the 737 and the 787 family.

Key:

ü Completed

v Unknown

Ø Works in Progress

Is A Boeing 797 The New MOM ??

The news is broken from comments made during a recent air exposition in San Diego, California this week. Boeing is looking at a new twin aisle having the 797 moniker. "Winging It" has written often about such an aircraft and it can be searched using key words such as MOM. 

Little will be discussed on this blog at this time until Boeing makes the announcement. It can only say that the "Paris Air Show" (Le Bourget) during June 2017 is the perfect venue for such an announcement. Like most predictions, it becomes a gut instinct from all the news postings in total which could lead someone to conclude it will be soon enough and why not Paris? 

Recent Winging IT Links on The Blog: 

MOM is coming, Winging It Weighs in Again

A Plausible Argument For MOM Exist

Last Word On MOM until late 2016 Announcement

The sketch below is a shortened view as the actual concept would go 30 plus rows.

Lindbergh Arrives at Le Bourget in 2017 Ninety Years Later.

The International Paris Air Show takes place for the fifty-second time on 7 days from Mon., June 19, 2017 to Sun., June 25, 2017 in Le Bourget.

Charles Lindbergh landed at Les Bourget on May 21, 1927 at 10:22 PM Paris time in a single aisle aircraft 90 years ago. He achieved the nick name “Lucky Lindy” for this feat. Not to be forgotten, the Paris Airshow is for the daring and brave. The $ 25,000 Orteig prize no longer exists as Lindbergh and his partners collected the prize.

Acknowledging the website: Historical Log Of Lindberg’s Flight

Lindbergh's Transatlantic Flight: New York to Paris Timeline, May 20-21, 1927

This site owned and operated by the Spirit of St. Louis 2 Project.
Email: webmaster@charleslindbergh.com 
® Copyright 2014 CharlesLindbergh.com�, All rights reserved. 



Charles Lindbergh

Photo by Harris & Ewing

7:52am - Charles Lindbergh takes off from Roosevelt Field, Long Island, New York. The heavy plane, loaded with 450 gallons of fuel, clears telephone wires at the end of the runway by only 20 feet.

8:52am - Altitude: 500 ft. Wind velocity: 0 mph. Currently over Rhode Island. Except for some turbulence, the flight over Long Island Sound and Connecticut was uneventful. Only 3,500 miles to Paris.

9:52am - Boston lies behind the plane; Cape Cod is to the right. Altitude: 150 ft. Airspeed: 107 mph. Wind velocity: 0 mph.

10:52am - There's a breeze blowing from the NW at 10mph. Lindbergh begins to feel tired, although only four hours have passed since leaving New York. He descends and flies within ten feet of the water to help keep his mind clear.

11:52am - Four hundred miles from New York. Altitude: 200 ft. Nova Scotia appears ahead. After flying over the Gulf of Maine, the Spirit of St. Louis is only six miles, or 2 degrees, off course.

12:52pm - Wind velocity has increased to 30 mph. Lindbergh flies over a mountain range. Clouds soon appear and thicken as the Spirit of St. Louis approaches a storm front.

2:52pm - Altitude: 600 ft. Air speed: 96 mph. Lindbergh's course takes him away from the edge of the storm. Wind velocity has dropped to 15 mph.

3:52pm - The eastern edge of Nova Scotia's Cape Breton Island lies below. In minutes Lindbergh will be over water again. Although it's only the afternoon of the first day, Lindbergh struggles to stay awake.

5:52pm - Flying along the southern coast of Newfoundland. Altitude: 300 ft. Air speed: 92 mph. Wind velocity: 20 mph.

7:52pm - Stars begin to appear in the sky as night falls. The sea below is completely obscured by fog. Lindbergh climbs from an altitude of 800 ft to 7500 ft to stay above the quickly-rising cloud.

8:52pm - Altitude: 10,000 ft. The cloud that first appeared as fog is still below. A thunderhead looms ahead. Lindbergh files into the towering cloud, then turns back after noticing ice forming on the plane.

10:52pm - Lindbergh's fight to keep his eyelids open continues. To keep warm, Lindbergh considers closing the plane's windows, but then decides that he needs the cold, fresh air to help stay awake.

11:52pm - Altitude: 10,000 ft. Air speed: 90 mph. Five hundred miles from Newfoundland. The air has warmed -- there's no ice remaining on the plane.

1:52am - Halfway to Paris. Eighteen hours into the flight. Instead of feeling as though he should celebrate (as he had planned), Lindbergh feels only dread: eighteen long hours to go.

2:52am - Daylight! Because Lindbergh has travelled through several time zones, dawn comes earlier. The light revives the pilot for a while, but then drowsiness returns. He even falls asleep, but only for a moment.

4:52am - Flying in the fog. Lindbergh continually falls asleep with his eyes open, then awakens seconds, possibly minutes, later. The pilot also begins to hallucinate. Finally, after flying for hours in or above the fog, the skies begin to clear.

7:52am - Twenty-four hours have elapsed since taking off from New York. Lindbergh does not feel as tired.

9:52am - Several small fishing boats spotted. Lindbergh circles and flies by closely, hoping to yell for directions, but no fishermen appear on the boats' decks.

10:52am - Local time: 3:00pm. Lindbergh spots land to his left and veers toward it. Refering to his charts, he identifies the land to be the southern tip of Ireland. The Spirit of St. Louis is 2.5 hours ahead of schedule and less than three miles off course.

12:52pm - Wanting to reach the French coast in daylight, Lindbergh increases air speed to 110 mph. The English coast appears ahead. The pilot is now wide awake.

2:52pm - The sun sets as the Spirit of St. Louis flies over the coastal French town of Cherbourg. Only two hundred miles to Paris.

5:22pm - The Spirit of St. Louis touches down at the Le Bourget Aerodrome, Paris, France. Local time: 10:22pm. Total flight time: 33 hours, 30 minutes, 29.8 seconds. Charles Lindbergh had not slept in 55 hours. Source: The Spirit of St. Louis, by Charles A. Lindbergh

Oh how times have changed in ninety years of flying to Europe. No longer does a pilot or passenger endure exhaustion from not sleeping. Paris/Le Bourget is the show and America has a definite presence. It could offer a new MOM 797 at the show as if it were claiming another Orteig price once again. A slam against Europe and its A-321 NEO. There is rumblings coming from Boeing and its officers, as references are made about a whole new 797 twin aisle aircraft proposal in the makings.  Is it the long awaited 757 replacement completing Boeing’s family of Aircraft? Maybe Paris in the spring is the real deal and love once again shows at the show for all aviation enthusiast. 

Airbus Loses Some Ground to Boeing With Orders and Deliveries 2017

Airbus numbers are out and as soon as possible there will be Boeing numbers in which to compare critical data. In total Airbus has stumbled out of the data gate. Boeing will surpass Airbus in several categories in both orders and deliveries. A subtle change has occurred in the all-in-all backlog total. Boeing will have a smaller unit and dollar value backlog again as Airbus' decade of the NEO has surpassed Boeing order totals by a wide margin. However, there is a turning and balancing of the market for more of a fifty-fifty split between the mega builders. In Fig. 1 the total backlog value has shrunk for Airbus and the book to bill ration during the first two months of 2017 goes negative in a significant way. Airbus has ten more months to make this up and it may accomplish a fatter backlog by years end once again. 

Fig. 1

Boeing on the other hand continues to shrink its backlog in units and value at a steady pace and it has outperformed Airbus during the first two months of 2017. The data is incomplete but preliminary numbers are based on data available before Boeing will publish its February numbers on March 9, 2017. The early numbers suggests Boeing had a consistent February over the Airbus slow down. The next posting will demonstrate the head to head" World's Largest Framer of Aircraft 2017" version with Boeing having an early lead again. However, Boeing may yet receive more orders than Airbus during 2017 and it will likely out produce Airbus within the same period. 

Fig. 2