The Twelve Days Of Christmas Starts Tonight #12

Trump thumps big ticket military items. AF-1, F-35, and Military Industrial Complex. He wants to make a deal so he draws a line in the check-book.

Trump calls fighter jet cost "Out of Control" 

The Fifty Max Thirty 777 Role of The Dice With Iran

Yes, an Iran deal is made totaling 16.6 billion US dollars. The reconstruction of Iran's aviation infra structure is complete having both Airbus and Boeing signed in for a long wait and political turmoil period. Donald Trump, President Elect (PE), has a haphazard tweet account spewing daily remarks indicating he will make moves affecting both Boeing and Lockheed with a bloat reducing bent. The PE has also mentioned a hint at unilaterally trimming any defense bloat for all programs while building a greater military. He has not described how that will be possible.

Once in office, with all military cards on the table and the PE's vision pushing forward, a clear picture will emerge. The prediction will be a somewhat muted Trump making military cuts topped with military industrial cost retrenchments. This being achieved through order reductions. In other words fewer F-35's, fewer ships and less hors d'oeuvres traveling on the PE's new AF-1 (that would be built during his term(s)). A more likely outcome would be a capstone on F-35 numbers by 400 less by 2030 allowing time for the next chief of state to increase order levels back to original numbers.

Back to Iran, as it dangles the order book as some kind leverage against American political decision making. The US will need and want Jobs and the press will dutifully point out how many jobs will be lost if the US cancels the Iran deal or what if Iran says no thank you to Boeing as it may go all Airbus.

That fortune telling outcome will lie somewhere in between this auspicious order announcement and having new passengers terminals built in Iran by Bechtel. A lot of politics must evolve out of this announcement to become a reality, The PE's verbose tweets will settle down as reality is inserted in both the politics and the populist schools of pronouncements.

For now we must all have sweet sugar plumbs dancing in our heads forming a wishful list of final order numbers for Boeing during 2016. Starting 16.6 billion worth of 50 Max, 15 777-300-ERs, and 15 777-9X, equaling five golden rings any day.

Qantas The Morning After

The Qantas-Perth deal just featured on Winging It one day ago, wakes up this day with a headlined potpourri concerning Perth and using Qantas for a trip to London from Perth. This news starts a segue for Qantas planning into Europe. Image boatloads (787-loads) of Europeans coming to Perth and then flying on everywhere Australia in workman like manner on a Qantas jet sled.

Winging It December 9, 2016

Today, December 11, 2016 explodes the Qantas/Perth story with a Journalistic barrage of tidbits validating the Winging It Story as Qantas announces schedules and times flying on a 787-9 in 2017. The deal is done and Perth gets an airport renewal which will house the 787-9 and other 787's with a regional footprint such as Jet Star's 787-8's from a Perth hub.

Perth will be a Euro destination through Qantas, beating the Middle East rivals currently courting Australian aspirations. Perth's potential is limitless in having a mega hub for having destinations throughout Asia and the whole Pacific ring of ports.

Perth Australian Airport Will sign with Qantas for Building 787-9 Acceptance

Oh, the spider web that is spun is so complicated.  Where its time has come, and is necessary to review the story before writing an ending. Qantas once had a large 787 order book (50) and then it cancelled a boatload of its 787-9's. Next came the emergence of its subsidiary Jet Star who eventually dipped into a former Qantas order for eleven 787-8's holding 334 seats. Even though Qantas had held a huge 787-9 order for a time, it relinquished its order standing without giving up all its 787-9 options. 

Perth Airport Has A Vision and here it is Qantas

That was about 2010, then the economic squeeze came. Allen Joyce, Qantas CEO, regrouped the Qantas financial and operational functions so it would make money. Qantas did a turn around fighting through the chicken and the egg paradox of which one will come first. They needed money to buy 787-9's, they needed 787-9's to make money.

Alan Joyce was perplexed thinking about all those lost 787-9 orders and seeing how far Jet Star took-off with its 787-8's delivered and still flying. The 787-9 is needed for its rejuvenation, was only six years ago. So goes the story line for Qantas. Money was made from changing the operational profile, even though it wanted to open long range markets where its competitors are now flying using its own new 787-9's, Qantas remained resolute. 

Alan Joyce stayed the course and watched his austerity program turn in more dollars. Debts were paid where efficiency was the source of the cash flows.

Watching others do well in your sphere of market was taking a toll on the company's composure. However, the dawn arose during 2015. Qantas was solidly in the black making a huge profit. Alan Joyce could once again look New Zealand Air and Singapore in the eye again smirking, "I bought some 787-9's, eight to be exact, and further more, fifteen are on option". Even though those numbers don't resemble the prior decade purchases and options, it represented much more. Qantas got it figured out how to make money with the hand that was dealt them.

Date Line June 2009 ABC News:

"Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce said the decision had not been influenced by Boeing's announcement earlier this week of a design issue in the 787 and further delay to the aircraft's first flight. He said discussions with Boeing about the order had started some months ago.

Qantas said it had reached a mutual agreement with Chicago-based Boeing to defer the delivery of 15 Boeing 787-8 aircrafts by four years and cancel orders for 15 Boeing 787-9s (which are slightly larger) scheduled for delivery in 2014 and 2015.

Joyce said Qantas remained committed to the 787 as the right choice for the international expansion of Jetstar, its low-cost subsidiary, and as an eventual replacement for Qantas' Boeing 767 fleet."

The above news clip documents the Qantas story for its 787-9 after starting so strong with Boeing with its 787's." Today news says:

Deal close on non-stop London flights from Perth Airport

This brings this story to the final chapter of the Qantas emerging episode. They will soon receive a 787-9 for flying to London from Perth Australia. A route opening up new opportunities for its profit engine from its Long Range division. Like all fairy tales there are antagonist going against the protagonist up until the last page. Who could see this coming from Perth of all places? They needed an airport upgrade and they won't pay for it, even for the Qantas' 787-9's sake. How unpatriotic is that? First delivery is around the corner from the long and winding story of receiving Australia's first 787-9 started so long ago.

Perth the spoiler talked with Qantas and struck a deal for its airport upgrades in order to land the Qantas 787-9. This opens up a link to the whole East Asia region for Qantas, as it will immediately make an impact going from Australia to London England. Other routes will begin to fall in place like a cascade from a house of cards falling into place, and after coming from its austere Qantas plan for making money needed for paying for the 787-9. One could say Australia has been made whole with the world of travel and Perth was the lynch pin for the Qantas emergence after coming from so long ago.

The B-21 Bomber Has Gamed The Tax Payers

First off the plate, how can a so-low bid build the most advanced bomber ever made by a company who hasn't built a big bodied aircraft in twenty years. And what's wrong with that? The second issue is called appearance of fraud. If the Air Force allows a cost plus bid to succeed in the low dollar realms, then it appears there was some doodling behind the scenes. Low bid with a guarantee of tax payers dollars paying the final price no matter how high the final price is for that said bomber is one by a favored company with strong ties somewhere between California and DC.

A bomber builder won the bid and what's wrong with that? A bomber builder who hasn't built a bomber in twenty years is what's wrong with that too? It should be awarded to those who build structures consistent to what is proposed. The B-2 is the last bomber built in 2000 totaling just 20 of its kind. An expert who builds big aircraft everyday would be a common sense awardee. No worries cost plus will buy our way into a B-21 by somebody who hasn't built a big body in twenty years. After-all it’s somebody else money not the Air Farce's.

This brings us to the final point. How can I, who is only marginally able see the misgiving of a bid process so clearly, when others so brilliant can only utter “I dunno know”, when asked, know this stinks?

A Lawyer Argues For The 787-10 Defense

The prosecution rest its case with this statement.

Seattle Times Dateline December 8,2016.

"It seats 330 passengers in a two-class configuration with a range of 7,400 miles, compared to 290 passengers on the 787-9 with a range just shy of 8,800 miles.

The defense steps up with a torrid case summary.

• We started at 7200  mile range and have expanded it to 7,400 miles from added efficiency built-in.
• It holds more than the 787-9's base configuration of  290 passengers when it seats 330 passengers in a two class alignment.
• It will hold much more if configured based on having Jet Star's 787-8 layout of 334 seats.
• 90% of all world routes fly 7,000 miles or less. 
• The extra seats are extra revenues on those routes.
• The 787-10 completes Multiple Enterprises (ME), a family trait.
• Almost all high density routes fall within the 787 range

Going on with the laser pointer is a time consuming exercise if the prosecution agrees we could go further with more 787-10 attributes, no pun intended. However, it comes to the most famous court quote of our time summarizing why buy the 787-10. If the 787-10 "fits then you must acquit". It fits the business plans of almost every airline's long haul operation existing; while having the commonality of the world's best family of aircraft coming from the single aisle 737 Max to the newest member of the Boeing family, the 777-9X. 

Additionally, the 787-10 becomes a bridge for a transition from medium wide body to extra wide body of the 777's. The behemoth aircraft such as the A-380's have proven it has limitations within the market place, too numerous to mention at this time, but worthy of your considerations. However, I need to remind you of inadequate airports having an A-380 imposing its will on the tarmac at those same airports who struggle to find space and funds to support the behemoth. All of Boeing's family of aircraft fit, and once again that bridge to other Boeing types is completed with the 787-10. The case of having a full family of aircraft has long been made during the last 40 years, commonality. This case is about the 787-10 offering a completeness for every one of its customers. 

Those who have already purchased the 787-10 have put in immense amount of time considering the 787-10 values, and how it will affect its company's goals and aspirations. Over one hundred and sixty 787-10 orders have been placed in the last few years since announcing the program. Its competitor for all its medium wide body have only taken-in a net of 228 A-350's during this same period of those ordered considering all of its A-350 medium wide body types. Boeing has received 402 orders for the medium wide body 787 family of aircraft during the same time period. Included with these ordered 787's, are made up with a significant portion of 787-10's. This happened all during a period which represents both having flying examples where the customer can compare.

The anticipated number of 787-10's is expected to grow after first delivery is made to its initial customers. Data has indicated a particular market for an aircraft having the 787-10's attributes. Boeing has received 1217 medium wide bodied orders for its 787 to date. Were Airbus has received only 810 similarly classed medium wide bodies with its A-350 family of aircraft. Boeing exceeds Airbus with a 1.5 rate. Otherwise, for every one Airbus A-350 purchased Boeing has 1.5 of its 787 purchased. Something must be factual about the 787 family were customers prefer it over the A-350. Customers have had an opportunity to review each manufacturer’s case with its medium wide body class. 

In conclusion, with all the evidence presented, there is only one reason the 787-10 is the best choice for the market when considering high density routes, it just fits the market place, the airport, and the customer.

December 7, 1941

Winging It salutes those who gave their all on December 7, 1941. A photo recap of devastation displayed with the Army Air Corp on that day.

Vindicator Ewa Field first hours of attack.

"One of the seven Vought SB2U-3 Vindicators of U.S. squadron VMSB-231 destroyed on the field at Ewa during the attack on Pearl Harbor, Oahu, Hawaii (USA), on 7 December 1941. All of VMSB-231's spares (the squadron was embarked in the USS Lexington (CV-2), en route to Midway, at the time) were thus destroyed. In the background is one of VMSB-232's Douglas SBDs.

More than 300 aircraft like the above pictured were destroyed on one single day. Over 2,000 military personnel died.

May God bless those souls and their families and a thank you for being in harms way for my freedom. 




Destroyed P-40



Hickman  Field





It was war and it did not end well for the attackers

Trump Opens AF-1 Negotiations with a "Drop IT" Too Much Money Statement

Boeing hasn't even begun its build of replacing the old AF-1's with four new 747-8i's when Donald Trump throws a negotiation hay maker with a cancellation notice. Don't worry Boeing, just offer Trump a deal he can't refuse? The new dog is in town and assuming the US Government is just there to write enormous checks is now over.

Air Force Rendition of the 747-8i

Don't get his message wrong, he wants the Boeing 747-8i over his aging 757 BBJ campaign buster. The 747 costs as much as one Trump Tower and he's into prestige and big things. The US and Trump are in his 100+ day mode and bravado is needed until further notice. The opening offer for a new AF-1 is "to cancel it", makes Boeing scramble its position of giving the US an all-new 747-8i at tremendous costs reduction or until it shows only a nominal profit on the "deal". Trump wants a shiny new 747 no doubt about it. Boeing has to negotiate, satisfying Trump’s campaign theme of being a deal maker. First up is AF-1 not the F-35. I can't imagine Trump flying to Asia in an Old AF-1 or a BBJ 757 with Trump painted all over it.

Trump wants the Great Seal of the US on a new AF-1 having a “deal logo” behind it. If Boeing plays its cards right Trump will order more F-18's because the nation needs a strong military where a Trump F-18 deal will include some AF-1's thrown in for nothing much more. The F-18 deal would keep Boeing Jobs going and the AF-1 deal would keep jobs going and so forth. Trump is not stupid and the liberals need to get over it!

It’s all about the deal. Boeing needs to change its marketing appeal to its customers during the duration of Trump's term. "It's all about the deal." I got that message six months ago from Trumps campaign literature telling he is the Grand Deal Wizard (GDW) and you better get with it or lose your position at the tax payer money trough when the dinner bell rings.

AF-1 is a "symbolic deal" for his first term and he needs it badly. The AF-1 is a gilded flying pig and Trump needs it to fly from wizard tower to tower hauling the GDW. Showing up in Paris with a sick 757 is so not Trump. A new 747-8i would do just fine next to the press "Cessna's" parked on flight line row. The Red White and Blue livery says Trump all over the Iconic 747 Hump. The presidential seal needs a bill board area fuselage space hanging Trump credentials when pulling up on the tarmac. Not even Jet way worthy is an AF-1, as a president walks on the flight line as required for all heads of state.

No 777's, 787's, or even an Airbus A-380 will do. It has to be a deal driven 747-8i with a paint livery to die for (counting other casualties). Yes, Donald Trump will order the 747-8i on his terms and that is the whole purpose of saying, "cancel it".

Breaking News After this article posted J

Boeing Said to Offer Talks on Air Force One After Trump Tweets

Narrowing Down To Boeing's Red Letter 787-8's

Boeing has delivered its fair share of 787-8's in the last five years and now it seems the low hanging fruit has gone from the market, leaving only 110 of the 787-8 to be built. It reminds me of the pudding cup as a hungry appetite scraps the sides for some little extra culinary pleasure. Boeing has reached that point with the 787-8 undelivered clientele. Below is the menu list of 787-8 customers who have not yet received even one of the 787's and shows no life of receiving even one 787-8, which is troubling the firing order on the factory floor. Its getting hard to schedule a 787-8 for a production spot since the larger stake holders (customers) haven't committed to its first 787-8.

See below for the list of nine customers holding out from 787-8 delivery:

Fig. 1

The difficult list of nine customers represent about 60% of the 787-8 backlog undelivered. There are currently 110 787-8 not yet delivered and it seems a long way from any delivery completion with this customer list. Much can be said about the Aeroflot order with Russia or Delta's fascination with Airbus but the main thing with Iraq is an uncertainty at best. ALAFCO maybe holding eight positions having customer intentions validated. This makes any kind of Order Quality Analysis impossible. The summary statement from this list suggests too many loose ends exists with Boeing to be comfortable without some kind of definitive assurances coming from these listed customers.

However, the life line comes from the higher profit 787-9's and 787-10's currently waiting for the build order. Over 400 787-9's and 164 787-10's can fill the factory for years to come. 

Below are the zero built list for the 787-9. This list does not include any customers already receiving its 789-9's having more on backlog awaiting delivery.

Fig. 2

There are twenty-one customers who have yet to receive even one 787-9 out of 195 booked classified as a zero received group. There are plenty of good news stories in this group as some are new orders and almost all are committed customers.

The 787-10 has not been even built at this time so any analysis would be a ridiculous adventure. But... A FYI for any further analysis of customers buying the 787-10.

Fig. 3

Boeing Goes Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Now " 787 Tuesday" 12/6/2016

Tomorrow comes the delivery of four 787-9's to four different customers. Boeing is having its own "Aviation Tuesday" on December 6, 2016. There are four 787-9's scheduled for delivery per AllThings787 blog by: Uresh Seth.

This much referred to site is used by Winging It for its best information on the productivity of the 787 program. A long followed, very reliable and honest presentation for the 787 program. 

They have reported from its charts the following information gathered from its reliable sources. The following deliveries for tomorrow's events at the Boeing Customer Delivery Centers:

Customer              Model             Center

British Airways       787-9             Everett

Xiamen                  787-9            Charleston

Hainan                  787-9             Charleston

Aero Mexico           787-9             Everett 

An Auspicious Occasion for customers and Boeing just before Christmas. Boeing hopes to deliver its 500^th 787 on December 20^th sing “Foam, Foam, Foam”.