Winging It Discovers A New Air Wars Web Site

Sometime we all stumble upon a "new-to-you", web site. The Winging It Crew stumbles through another day finding anna aero within the ranks of good reads. It is made brief today on what you may do with this information. Boeing stretches out production lead over Airbus during the November 2015 segment of time. December will continue delivery pacing with Boeing, completing a plus 700 delivery goal achievement during 2015.

Airbus Presented First in Anna Aero

Boeing in 1st Place per Anna Aero

Toilets Tank Airbus A350 for Several Months

Arch rival Airbus has a problem coming to a head. Its toilets are from Zodiac, supplier of all things reclined. The several month delay on getting its Zodiac toilets unplugged won't be an Airbus game changer. They will get it right eventually during a sixty day window of time for airing out the critical passenger station. Airbus expected 15 of its A350's built and delivered by year's end. However, a supplier delay of product not meeting Airbus configurations for the A350's exist, and by years end it is in a stall at an undisclosed Toulouse location. They will hit maybe 14 Airbus delivered and Airbus expects another 60 A350's to be delivered in 2016 where its counterpart in North America, Boeing, will rack up another 130 plus 787 wide bodies into customer's' hand exceeding any Airbus A350 production with an over 100% output advantage for this type.

Zodiac’s Revolution toilet, right version.

http://skift.com/2015/04/19/the-airline-toilet-that-is-set-to-revolutionize-in-flight-relief/#1

The supplier issue is still the critical show stopper for any program, especially for Airbus at this time, as it turns on its wide body production pace in an attempt at matching Boeing's head start considering its propensity of having an incredible two plant delivery pace. The Boeing 787 backlog will slip under the Airbus backlog before 2016 ends. Boeing is near the Airbus net 764 unit wide body backlog for the twin aisle and twin engine type. Boeing is at 784 net Backlog for the 787 family of aircraft, having 1143 orders booked and 359 delivered. Boeing will catch Airbus backlog by end of first Quarter 2016, if all things stay the same on the order books.

In 2017 when the 787-10 will show up on the floor, suggest a buying spree for 787's will be ripe, as the diminished backlog with Boeing positions them within the magic five year plans of most airline operations for a delivery window. Boeing can now manage order syncing with a customer's five year plan maintaining a 750 unit, 787 backlog. A shrewd strategy from Boeing five years past; "get that 787 backlog under the five year production mark!" Airbus is yet three years away from that distinction, as it will try with supplier cooperation matching Boeing WB output in the next three years. Boeing is capable of taking on more orders and delivering faster than its combative competitor for the foreseeable future. 

Delivery timing matters for every customer in the industry. Many a customer bloated its WB orders earlier when it could, as a hedge against not having the best aircraft in its respective fleet sooner rather than later. Now customers can order in stride with business opportunity without worrying about missing out on delivery slots for a seamless fleet renewal plan, because it can take deliveries within its own five year corporate window from Boeing. 

The long order book wait period is rapidly shrinking for Boeing even though they have booked at least 1,142, 787 orders with 354, 787 already delivered. They are on par with the Airbus' order book backlog. However, considering its a "late" Airbus production ramp-up, even as Airbus had a sub 800 order book at the start of its initial production cycle starting in late 2014. With this consideration, "That my diligent friends is the Boeing order book high ground!"

Boeing continues to add to its WB order book as Airbus A350 order intake languishes over the last three years compared with Boeing. Now that the 787-10 has taken on more orders (EVA air), after two soft years from the initial 787-10 order period, Airbus is gasping for help in this segment and it isn't coming soon. Boeing can deliver sooner than Airbus within the proverbial "Corporate Golden period", or a customer's five years of planning and opportunity period. Boeing has taken in a net of  294, 787 orders since January 2013 where Airbus has netted 193, A350 orders sine January 2013 where these last two years are a minus 37 net A350's removed from the books.

The AI Team Loves It When A Plane Comes Together

The AI team from India reports a 6% profitability margin, largely due to the influence of the 787 fleet of 21 units found within its 107 airplane fleet. Amongst all the 787 complaints and mishaps Air India can't seem to avoid the fuel efficiency of the 787 lifting its profit line up by the bootstraps. The plane just works well on the bottom line, even though Air India tries as it may, a bumbling approach to the airline industry.

 

Missing Panel from a screwless Blow Out an AI Maintenance Issue

Air India likely to make 6% profit this fiscal, first since merger   

At last, Winging It, can stop complaining about Air India's gift of the 787 making a mark, despite of all its attempts by the same AI muddling up loose panels, scabbing parts, and questionable maintenance issues. Other companies around the world seem to avoid bumblings with its own 787s or at least those local press reports don't make it to the news wire. The Dreamliner has lifted Air India to profitability much to my amazement and awe. Maybe Air India is on to something others are tight lipped about, the 787 makes money. The sooner a company gets on an order list with Boeing, the more shares of stock can be sold, or is it the other way around? 

Either way, the Air India profit call out is a testament that through fire and smoke or missing panels you make money with the 787, and remain profitably happy. It's a safe airplane and a safe bet, fortunes will turn around in spite of any government's good intentions. Ethiopian did it first, and finally Air India is on the cusp of financial competence. Every other carrier in between must have a similar story hidden within its financial internals. 

TUI Synergy Is The 787 Energy

TUI is actually five airlines into one company. Making them one of the best synergistic notions of business replications throughout its individual national footprints. England, Sweden and Germany to name a few of those aspirations found Europe, have turned a corner and gained a solid position for ordering more wide body aircraft. It bought early, the 787, for Great Britain vacations to the Caribbean and beyond. Now TUI is acting on the GB established model with its 787 fleet. Mission was accomplished much to the delight of those flying out of Southwick to Mexico.

A Winging It Feature:

Thomson Airways Is Doing It For Everybody

An airline who looks forward for more 787's is an airline who holds the high market ground. TUI subsidiaries have a trail already blazed through the Thomson Airways model. They can do this again four times over through ordering Boeing with the 787-8's or 787-9's. Germany TUI would want the 787-9's, I would think, and the Netherlands would want some 787-8's if I were betting on an order during 2016. Sweden could come forward for a dozen more. In all the TUI group of vacation purveyors could take on another fifty Dreamliners in the next couple of years. Combining planned fleet turnover of equipment and its fleet expansion opportunities, TUI will draw more 787's orders from Boeing. 

In 2016, watch for a TUI order placement coming from several of its subsidiary operations. Look for TUI-Sweden, Germany, and Netherlands play on the Boeing books with a mixture of 787-8, 787-9 and maybe a 787-10 order. Least I not forget the Brussels operation making a charming quintet of vacation plans from Europe to the Americas.

DDG 1000 Makes Rescue During First Sea Trial

The yet to be named Zumwalt class  DDG 1000 rescues a fishing captain 40 miles to the South East of Portland Maine during its initial sea trials. The select crew performed the rescue in a small boat launched from the "Zumwalt class destroyer" at 3:00 am Monday last. "Rescue from other ships" now has a check mark for the DDG 1000 today. The Navy team onboard did their job well. The stealthy-like ship gives out a radar signature the size of a fishing boat even though its 15,000 tons is a massive seagoing object with a crew of about 180 members. The Arleigh-Burke class destroyer company is close to 300 members. This suggests more automations and sci-fi efficiency.

News Article Link

Video Link

Becoming Exclusive, A Market Strategy

Often the industry looks at size and numbers as the benchmark for market dominance. The number of aircraft in backlog is a driving impressionable quantum. However, after looking at the insatiable growth of market backlog, that factor begins to lose luster after it falls out of relevancy with customer plans. How can an Airline place an order with a seven year wait? It needs money for that order, if all goals are met in the high risk of market change over time.

An airline also knows it can convert orders to the next latest models during a seven-ten year backlog of waiting for its intended order. Many Boeing 737NG orders were converted to 737 MAX under this condition. The order placement so many years out, did not take into account an accurate estimation the Max announcement would occur.

Airbus has raced ahead of Boeing on single aisle orders placed in 2015. Airbus is also proclaiming a sixty per month build rate for its A320 NEO by 2020. Boeing will try fifty-two a month produced by 2018. So yes, Boeing is keenly aware that "Backlog Matters". It is not a glamorous number thrown around customers as some kind of dominating number in the market place. It makes customers reconsider, reconstruct, and renew its own five year planning in the most awkward manner. Customers can't always adjust while its providers goes seven years out on a wait list. The condition described above, pulls in, too much risk into an airline's "plan". Airbus has an incredible desire for selling aircraft and being the world's largest everything, even at the expense of its customers. Airlines may fail out and experience an opportunity loss from a long term wait. Company "A" (Airbus Customer) may have to wait too long for an aircraft delivery while extended time waiting will not fit its own business plan or can it adjust from market changes. Because of this exposure from more time passing, a just-in-time delivery goes out the Airline window.

Boeing, naturally is company "B" where they are openly seeking a production balance driven by customer opportunity. Boeing realizes it must maintain a manageable backlog even at the expense of losing PR points of not having the World's Largest Airplane Backlog (WLABL). Boeing gave market guidance many months earlier, it would have an approximate 755 units placed on order for 2015. Airbus by comparison has already achieved over 1006 aircraft ordered during 2015.

737 NG Production Floor Renton, WA

Boeing has already recognized a market nullification has emerged for the single aisle market. Market nullification is a term defining that either mega manufacturer does not have a significant edge over the other from product advantage of a customer's operations, other than providing timely delivery into a customer's  own business plans. In other words the defining a "choice metric" comes from a customer's own operational situation rather than the supplier's product having some market edge. The duopoly has nullified itself into a customer's operational decision tree of what would be more convenient for "Our Airline". The checklist for the operator becomes: commonality of fleet, delivery time, and market conditions. These are all out of control of the manufacturer, since they have nullified themselves through achieving many goals of commonality, excessive backlog and dynamic market conditions. The market belongs to the manufacturer's customers not the manufacturer.

Airbus went big in 2015 where Boeing went small with its order book. The advantage over time will benefit Boeing if it tunes its production capacity towards its customer as an exclusive relationship. Boeing is closing in on a position of: "When do need it and how many?" Airbus is pulling away with its single aisle just like popular restaurants have an excessive wait time for a table on Friday night. Boeing must adjust its backlog making an exclusive partnership with its customer, and not look over its shoulders at the Airbus bloviating. It must make the relationship with its customers, by containing a functional production queue. If Boeing can sell more airplanes it must expand its production first to meet customer demand in the sales process, as it will sell more airplanes from a commitment of productivity not the slight differences found in it products with its competitor. It is this blog's belief Boeing has done just that, taking on a responsible mantle of taking on more orders when able to do so within a sensible delivery time for its customer.

American Airlines 787-9 Premium Economy

I'd buy it on long flights. Twenty-one seats offered in three rows of 2-3-2 configuration will make "any pond jump” for a sensible price with enough extras complimenting your extended hours of travel enjoyment.

American Airlines 787-8 seating chart.

The American Airline 787-9 delivery in 2016 will have this intercontinental flair for its passengers. Judging by what others are doing, American will make a slightly more expensive ticket than an Economy Plus worth on price for long legged routes.

Leg room six inches more room (37" pitch estimation). Seats having a significant width wider than economy in comparison (about 22"). Upgrades on in-flight amenities and boarding privileges. Viola, your trip from Seattle to Paris becomes remarkable on the 787-9 for the price significantly less than business class pampering. 

This American Airline rendition should carry about 260 passengers. United has 252 seats on its 787-9 for comparison. Winging It estimates about 260+ for American Airlines until seating is announced late in 2016, before American Airline first delivery.

Creating The Max

Boeing's website is open for business concerning the 737 Max. It has rolled from its factory to the paint shop and back for final preparations for first flight testing.

"Creating The Max": Boeing Link

Single Aisle At The Climax (Updated new 737 Oders)

Boeing has long proposed its 737 MAX is the undisputed winner of the Single Aisle Airplane Wars. Airbus says not so fast people, the A320 NEO reigns supreme. Who is correct in this assumption?

The answer is in sales numbers for various reasons.

• Fleet renewal opportunity
• Commonality Curve
• Oil Prices become a non-purchase factor
• Time
• Paper vs Metal, Flying version wins orders.

Airbus had an eleven month jump in time over Boeing announcing in 2011 its NEO single Aisle. Boeing lost the advantage of time and was set backwards by about 1200 NEO's ordered in the first year. The first 787 was delivered in 2011 and Boeing was flummoxed by an early 787 debacle and couldn't counter punch Airbus at that time until the next year when orders came surging in for the MAX.

However, Airbus was in perfect sync with market realities. They kept going forward with its customers filling its order book.. Boeing could only try to stay on the same lap around the development stage with orders.

 

So far, so good until 2015. Airbus is ready to lap Boeing on single Aisle orders. This leads me to ponder that oil prices do not make a case for Boeing, for buying its MAX over the NEO. The fuel efficiency difference for the two is a non-decider. 

Commonality found in Airbus product is further along, than Boeing's conversion towards its theme of "fly like a 787" on all models. Customers new to Airbus, may have bought into the price offering from a single aisle discount. Boeing strapped for program profit may have held firm with its pricing in order for it to avoid any development hit on its bottom line for the MAX.

Airbus stole the march on Boeing in 2011 and timed the world fleet renewal window perfectly. The lower oil prices have just began shrinking purchase power in 2015. Boeing drew the short straw when leasing aircraft becomes a tool and side effect from lower fuel prices.

However, as dismal as the 2015 period appears for Boeing Single Aisle purchase orders, it has built a significant internal construct for its marketing. The multitude of 787 sold, and the 777X launch success will make the case for having a top to bottom family of Boeing aircraft. Boeing's out of sync fleet "renewal opportunity surge", will catch-up by 2018 to the NEO book numbers. The year 2015 is bottom hitting for Boeing's Single Aisle effort. In fact Boeing will book some more MAX this month but won't catch Airbus. Boeing will have aligned its timing, commonality factor, and fleet renewal windows by 2018.

The flying version wins orders for Airbus as Boeing sketches out the Max on the CAD, its paper version loses momentum with orders during 2015. The third round of this fight will begin with Boeing having bloody cuts and bruises from the fight. The Boeing metal version rolls towards towards its corner in the shop awaiting the next round.  

Update:

Boeing jumps some net orders for the 737 before year's end, and slightly closes single aisle gap. It is a good indicator Boeing is in the fight to win it.

2015 Net Orders

563

2

49

58

71

743

The Boeing Order Book Graphed

Boeing has amassed orders for a seamless transition from it production floor going from NG to Max effort. The only gap found in the order book is the 747-8i has stalled as the new found twin solution makes it obsolete. A 747-8i doesn't die because of Airbus, it dies because of the 777X concept.

Owning two 405 seat 777-9X can fly more destinations than one 500 seat A380. The A380 is also a dead concept no matter how luxuriously appointed the Gulf States make it.

A Business Finance News Chart

  

With over 4,000 single aisle and over 1,000 Wide Bodies backlogged, Boeing has its work scheduled in a envious position. Comparing with Airbus who has a larger backlog it will be difficult for Airbus to fit more orders in a timely manner. Boeing has synced its production slots closer to market demand, and it will serve them well when marketing for more orders. Airlines who are expanding or are newly forming can fit its fleet expansions for single aisle ordering with Boeing, an important consideration when matching financial resources with business plans.