Airbus Shrugs-Emirates Shops Boutique: Its Dubai

The big stories are huge in stature. Emirates wants 200 A380-NEOs from Airbus where they can't spend the money developing a boutique order just for Emirates. No one else is seriously interested in the A380 NEO at this time. The super Jumbo fad has faded even with another "NEO" label slapped around in the Airbus R&D hallway.

Dubai has become a real world air show. The oil well hole in the desert region has become the real show stopper. Golden Oil prices have fallen worldwide. Rational heads prevail at both ends of the market system. Airbus won't front billions of dollars (or Euros) for the NEO label added on the A380 program. Emirates has itchy fingers in its bank vaults. The solution to this dilemma, is simple. Have Emirates invest $20 Billion into Airbus stock specifically for the A380 NEO program, and then turn around ordering 200 A380 NEO's by writing an extremely huge check for its order. That's what Airbus is talking about, otherwise forgetta-bout-it!

The real world has caught up with Dubai. The money graph has dipped low in 2015. The backlog graph has swung to a peak in the same time frame. The Dubai show, once again is about assurances given in private rooms around the venue. Making plans and making planes is the discussion for all the industry players. The ordering no longer holds center stage for this year's meet and greet. The show is about how Boeing is planning for a Tweener-Twin that is not an official wide body nor is it a single aisle, hence the nickname, "Tweener-Twin". Airbus went with the A321 single aisle route answering the 757 gap.

Airbus and Emirates are at a loggerhead over its monster Jumbo. Airbus knows the A380 sales are flat, and has little airport appeal compared to the Airport compliant 787 family. Two 787's can land five minutes apart from two different parts of the world holding a combined 500 passengers. They can unload at two different parts of a large terminal minimizing the congestion created as compared with the double decker A380. Airports are fussy about airport expansions for only one type of aircraft such as the A380. Airbus wishes for an order for 32 classic A380 and not an order for 200 NEO in spite of Tim Clark's (Emirates) admonitions they would order 200 A380 NEO's.

So goes the Dubai meet and greet, 2015. Many other players wander the event on company travel expense accounts. Many other aviation suppliers show its wares to the tens of thousands people on some kind of professional junket. However, the deals were made over the phone, computer or skype before the show. Now participants meet in secure rooms away from the crowd with the intent of forming a show announcement later. During the four day show, later is in hours, not months. The deal was committed long before the show and now it's party time after signatures.

Any Air Show is about networking and forming relationships. It's about seeing everything better than what two years ago were presented. Dubai, Farnborough, and Paris are part Comic-Con, flybys, and showing off. Airbus Leahy is a showoff. Boeing's Randy Tinseth reminds me of a showman, coming from the Ed Sullivan era. Randy is straightforward and makes the case from facts derived out of statistics and does not exaggerate. Leahy, on the other tells what everyone wants to hear. When Boeing beats Airbus on a head to head competition it's from customer's careful considerations.

All in all, this 2015 Dubai show is about relationships, because the ordering portion is a separate issue from any Airshow. A perfect storm if you consider ordering a convergence of need, money and timing opportunity, and then orders come to the show and completes its purpose. 

Boeing Contemplating A Tweener Twin Aisle

There is a hole in the family left by the Boeing 757. Airbus seeks interloping into Boeing's family lineup with its A321 Neo. Boeing has stretched R&D through its simultaneous projects for the 777X and the 737 Max, now forming on deck in the prototype barn.

Back to the board room as VP's examining the charts, graphs, and slick videos on what a Tweener could do.

• It must not encroach on the 787-8 market
• It must not resemble the now defunct 787-300
• It must be wider than the 757
• It must look different than the Max 
• The Tweener may have twin aisle sensibility
• The range is for any "Continentals traveling" provides 4500 to 5000 miles of connectivity
• The Tweener-Twin purpose gains an Island access sensibility
• The Tweener-Twin takes on the best of Boeing for an aircraft holding up to 250 passengers

In order to meet these ideals, it would be limited to seven across seating within a body approximately 48 inches narrower than the 787. It could utilize production infrastructure already in place for the 787, using the transportation systems used for shipping 787 body parts, assuming this would be an all plastic body and wing concept aircraft. 

Where it will assemble is probably a difficult decision not yet determined. Introducing a new type in Everett is a complex problem of space and not labor. Going to Charleston for assembly is a question of labor and not space. Either way this is not a split assembly location issue, but will be a sole source assembly decision within Boeing's plant structure. 

This is the game changer, when making a plant decision, and could be Boeing's hesitation point before going forward. All the data has not been presented in order to make a best decision even while having labor not yet bidding for the honors of building Boeing's next aircraft.

If Boeing takes labor out of the equation, there could be problems on all its programs except the 787-10 program going forward. Boeing could shop another location for building the Tweener-Twin, and solve several questions. In that case, during a community bidding war having Boeing select it as the new plant location, would benefit Boeing once again for cheaper land and an available labor pool. Many cities in the Northwest could supply Boeing a convenient opportunity.

Boeing Bombs Bomber Bid and Protests

However, after all is said and done Boeing claims, Northrop did not take into consideration a spiraling cost quotient when accepting Northrop's bid. It, Boeing, did and lost the bid. The double team adds Lockheed against the DOD Acquisition Department and Northrop.

The comment coming from experts has already entered the fray with the same early conclusion agreeing with Winging It, DoD Acquisition had already closed any troubling loopholes within the bid process. Hence, the Northrop proposal was a solid bid meeting all contingency foreseen as part of the bid requirements. I would be surprised if Boeing-Lockheed have the case strength  needed for a vigorous pursuit, as Boeing once had in its tanker protest. The Long Range Bomber (LRB) proposal has a greater nebulous element within the bid, and it would be difficult to prove any definitive considerations for spiraling costs. The Long Range Bomber is not from a commercial frame, but is from a military frame and is a concept consideration favoring Northrup, which has demonstrated a similar frame in operation, and Boeing has not had one in operation at this time.

The Boeing argument is more theoretical than conceptual. Northrop's complaint could be valid, in addition that it will cost the company and the government millions defending the process. Boeing must have highlighted the costs structure in its bid making. It should use the same arguments for its costs validations and should be included within its protests submission (remains to be argued). If Boeing, didn't cover its argument within the bid process, then they are now stuck with a bid loss. The capability argument against Northrop by Boeing, is an opinion and a theoretical risk the Government is willing to take, judging from past Northrop bomber deliveries.  

The Boeing claim would be that acquisition people ignored the Boeing proposal in part from its other real information included, and accepted Northrup's proposal and less development capability without regard to real world costs. The LRB project cost spiral was erroneously omitted when deciding over the Boeing bid having a greater technology capability, becomes Boeing's primary argument. 

All of this now becomes a consideration of the legal process; taking into account Boeing's claims and Northrop's realities presented within the Acquisition's LRB bid constructs. The technical bid aspect may belong to Northrop and the practical aspect may belong to Boeing. The court will not certainly cut the baby in half to decide the issue. Boeing gambled and lost on the bid process.  

787 Family Snapshot

The 787 Dreamliner family is four years in operation. The time provides an opportunity for family a picture. However being only a wallet sized addition, it will suffice, as a momentary glimpse of things to come.

 

The snap shot of the Dreamliner shows about 30% of all Dreamliners booked are now delivered. A significant footprint on the wide body world. The 343 aircraft 787 types, in customer hands are dominating airline operations. The Boeing Dream has become an Airbus nightmare. It just dominates airspace at this time, and will continue to do so for the next ten years into the foreseeable future.

Almost 63% of all 787-8's are now delivered against total number ordered. A significant production number for airplane described as impossible to make by an Airbus company back in 2005, just a mere ten years ago. Since then, Airbus rushed to match the Boeing idea with half measures. It only could answer with a 5 inch width difference.

Additionally, 12% of the 787-9's booked have been delivered and are gaining altitude as it has leveraged the 787-8 concept into a perfect WB fit. It goes farther and has the additional seating space for airlines maximizing its business models. Japan Airline opts to go spacious with about 195 seats and its competitor ANA, provides 395 seats on its 787-9. 

The 787-10 yet to reach the production floor, promises reaching maximum metrics for the 787 design. Although giving up having ultimate range of the 787-9, it will meet 90% of all route range currently in use or considered for expansion. The ultimate goal of the 787-10 is filling the high density market segment with the efficiency of the 787. Fully loaded its an ocean hopping experience. 

Boeing's Late 2015 Order Flow

Korean Air has become the next order flowing in for Boeing in the Sixty day Market segment. December 31 is only 56 days away as the inflow of late 2015 orders show no abatement. The latest order has brought Korean Air out to play with 30 737 Max and an option for 20 more Max. Since the news so far is sparse on detail, Winging It, assumes they are the 737-800 variant. Also, it ordered two 777-300ERs for its fleet. The order tally's 4 billion at list prices.

Since October of 2015 there has been a steady flow of order announcing in both the confirmed deal making, and the works-in-progress paper shuffling category. Today Boeing has not yet posted its plethora of orders from EVA (787-10), a bulk China order of 240 aircraft on the table (tethered by a Chinese Assembly Plant Deal). 

Boeing Rushing In Orders During Next Sixty Days from Somewhere

Select Setting For The Dubai Airshow at: Market Assurance

Mega deals are dependent on higher Oil prices from the desert region. Dubai, after its 2013 order splurge of Boeing aircraft will produce token bookings for Boeing in 2015. A show surprise would be any big order. Boeing has known this for some time. It would have to stay another two years hanging out at the Dubai oasis.

The Boeing 2015 sales effort depends on a worldwide success outside the desert region of the Middle East. Any big order push is for a end-of-year grand finale from other world players. China has baited Boeing with a 240 airplane order dangling like a worm when an agreement with Boeing for building a finale assembly plant in China is achieved. It would hope to gain some airplane technology through Boeing's airplane building knowledge gleaned from a Boeing Assembly Center venture which could slip "expertise" to its own COMAC effort. The big plan for them, is an eventual world domination scheme over the current duopoly of Boeing and Airbus.

This brings all of us to the point, what about Dubai? Boeing must know by now the score card with this year's airshow since is just around the corner. However, they are looking for market assurance if they can't record sales on any kind of bragging stage. Airbus is always a mystery until it blurts out something, somewhere, somehow. It is settled, it’s all about assurance going forward. Boeing will talk about 2017 at the Dubai 2015 show. There will be a time in 2017 for oil price adjustments and fleet expansions notions going forward going back from the year 2013 Dubai. 

The 777X will be advanced in development going so far along, the actual performance metrics become a reality from Paine Field's first flight. The folding wing will be the talk of the 2017 airshow looking into the future. One more time, “let's watch the wing tip fold upwards at the show”. Expect some follow-on orders in 2017 for the 777X. The 2015 Dubai Airshow will assure it this year.

Amping Up The 737 Build Rate

Currently Boeing has two Renton lines building 42 737's a month. Soon a third line will reach the same capacity producing another 21 737's a month. It is natural to assume, an ultimate rate can be obtained with a fourth line somewhere beyond Renton. Many believe China is the ripe field for expansion. “Winging It” believes there are other spots in the world for that distinction for a fourth plant. It must be located in a region that has a long range production prospectus for the single aisle builds. China once again percolates up in discussions.

 

The difficulties are plentiful is the grand scheme of things for building a new assembly plant with all the ancillary businesses required supporting such a production aspiration. Once again China proves it could be an answer. The cost of a long range supply chain to China would be the biggest issue, followed by having trained employees capable of handling continuous change on the production floor. 

Boeing has developed a sweet 737 supply chain spanning North America going to Renton Washington. No such sweet supply chain would exist in a China operation initially. The Chinese would have to install a Boeing body assembly as found at the Spirit plant. An engine supply center or production center for the CFM engine would land in China. However, the hundreds of thousands technological parts are relatively small and lightweight. They can come via air cargo from around the world.

The possibility of a China operation is real and necessary for Boeing Marketing having a Boeing sponsored, Chinese built single aisle aircraft plant. The region buys hundreds of 737's every year and would keep shipping 737 going out to all of the Asian market. The Renton Plant if it maxes to 63 a month production limit could continue as the North American-South America and European supplier for the 737. They would need 2,000 aircraft Backlog. The China plant needs about a 1500 unit back-log with a 42 a month build rate. The ultimate rate for both plants would be 105 737 a month pouring into the market. This would meet the single aisle demand for the next ten years. 

However, don't count Charleston out of this venture. It has room to build a 42 a month 737 production plant within its property. The convenience is obvious, but it not known how it would affect the Asian market if Boeing did not have a footprint in the Asian region. That study of course would be secret to Boeing. If the Chinese offered Boeing a deal it couldn't refuse. Boeing would want leveraging points over Airbus in the single aisle Asian market, if it goes further west than Renton, WA, and not go east with Boeing's Charleston, SC.

Boeing Rushing In Orders During Next Sixty Days from Somewhere

The Boeing fall rush has started and will culminate at the end of December. Even though Winging It, has mentioned some late 2015 orders over several Blog postings, it will continue mentioning the Boeing order book. The Dubai Airshow is up next. Several large orders elsewhere loom large. Nine more 787's where just announced by El Al from Israel, with another six 787's, must show up from a leasing company in El Al's behalf, yet to be announced somewhere.

"Somewhere", is the 2015 Order Book theme. The demonstration is an all-out Boeing scramble for 787 orders as well as a 737 Max push. Repeating a news item from earlier in October 2015 is the China conglomerate order, not yet disclosed for about 240 aircraft ordered. I believe this remains for late in December as the Keynote order placement for 2015. Boeing has pulled an Airbus move. Waiting for the last month to unload its order build-up from a year's worth of scrambling the global market.

The stockholder version is an entertaining presentation of a company not leaving any stone unturned for the order book. The production story is an exciting chapter suggesting take no prisoners on delivery of jets. Airbus got the memo finally and is responding with its own factory surge. It may be too late, as Boeing is not looking back over its production shoulder. If necessary, it will keep expanding production as a key to its always improving strategy.

Boeing knows production is the key to customer success. The current 787 order surge comes as a byproduct of production leveraging the customer forward with orders. The Airbus production flow of only about half dozen A350 delivered in almost a year is strangling its order book from customers. Boeing delivered about 40 in its first 12 months of a more complex aircraft. I will suggest Boeing did a much better job of getting product out faster than Airbus even though Boeing built a more complex and problematic aircraft at the onset.

Airbus will brag about how trouble free its A350 is considering it did not attempt to go all electric or risk an all new battery system as Boeing attempted. It buried its troubles in the shop and not on the flight line photo lineup. In sixty days Airbus will have a delivery number for the first twelve months with its less complicated and advanced airplane. I don't think Airbus will deliver another thirty A350's before January 2016, matching the Boeing feat in its first 12 months of 787 production and delivery.  

Halloween Numbers Will Scare Airbus October 31, 2015

The October recap culminates, as it almost thrives on pushing and pulling the 787 program to maturation. Through smoke and fire, engine indicator lights and parts chain stalling, the Boeing people can now say, here we are! The chart below show just two less 787's delivered by end of October, compared with all of 2014. It will go forward with another 60 days of production, if considering guidance, it will beat 130 units for 2015. It may go with 144 units, unless Boeing starts its annual factory reconditioning with both Everett and Charleston plants. I will suggest a quiet Christmas for Boeing production, and guess out only about 138 787's for all of 2015.

Airbus Has A Mission and this Mission is chasing Boeing's ghostly 787 numbers; Ding  Dong-Trick or Treat.

With the conclusion of 2015 rapidly approaching it stands to reason more orders are on the way and the 2015 order count will not stay at 50 YTD orders as listed above.

Below is the striking number of 280 787-8's delivered within four years since the first 787 arrived in 2011. Sixty more 787-9's have been delivered as it is positioned for 2016 as the primary type going to customers for the next three years. The tip coming from Winging It, is watch how many 787-10's are ordered.

Leveraging The 787 Has Started

A few airlines are considering expanding its 787 fleet. So today alone the news has reported the following fleet expansion either already done or under consideration.

• Norwegian Has ordered up with Boeing for 19 more 787-9
• Scoot is deploying its continuing delivery for 20 with plans for fleet 787 expansion
• TUI or Thompson is considering another fleet expansion with Boeing for its 787-9's

Why the prepositioning for more 787's? The answer is the first batch is making such a success for each airline already flying the 787. The list will gain length during 2016 as more airlines will buy more 787's from the success of its current fleet of 787's. This is what is called leveraging. Levering an asset value (cash) into another of the same value (787's) when expanding the business. It’s done all the time in business. In this case it moves billions of dollars into the 787 marketplace. This was one of Boeing's strategic development points back in 2007.

"Winging It" sloppy Vision statement: "Once customers get these first 787 into its hands, it will propagate an urgency for more 787's flying more routes through a strategic equipment replacement and route expansions." With what they (Scoot) quickly see with its 787s, is they have an urgent need, as they have already received both 787-8's and 787-9's, which is making Scoot money for leveraging into more 787 aircraft orders.

Airbus customers are not so fortunate since it has a slow delivery of the A350 at five or six in twelve months, there are no A350's in operation for leveraging (money banked) additional A350 sales booked. The Boeing 787 production yeast has risen the 787 Market bread, where Airbus is still serving an unleavened version of its sales pitch. There is no Airbus product leveraging at this time. Boeing's almost 340 units of 787's flying, is putting more cash in the bank, for buying more 787's for its customers.