"Oh, my" is an old Dick Enberg exhale in a sporting event when something happens. Well, something did happen at Airbus during February. It took in 4 orders from its upstart Bombardier extension which didn't exist at this time last year for Airbus. It also noted from its own website it had negative net orders of -99 frames suggesting a shrinking order backlog and book. Maybe Boeing will book 100 VietJet Max, 10 Bamboo 787's and 18 777x, thus shrinking the Airbus backlog lead by a block of 128 orders with these three customers mentioned and depending on finalization, that is a Boeing necessity.
Airbus is suffering an order payback slump at the start of 2019. A slump is a slump and the year is long, but none the less Boeing has loaded the bases with no outs and the clean-up batter at the plate. "It just has to hit it out of the park."
The steady backlog shrinkage gap from 2018 and so far in 2019 promises Boeing could regain the top billing by 2020 if it announces the 797 and will indeed be built as an NMA. It has its production chops going with a pedal to the metal attitude. It will produce its 787 at 14 a month and go long with 55 Max a month during 2019. It has an opportunity that its 767 productions will beat the A330 production of the same genre found in the medium WB class. The 767 is a tanker and freighter model from its prior 767 passenger fame.
Airbus at the end has an undelivered backlog of 7390 including the recently acquired Bombardier backlog. Boeing's February number is not published but it had at the end of January about a 5,800+ unit backlog or an Airbus 1,600 unit lead which surely is changing in Boeing's favor once its end of February numbers are posted next week. Remembering production crunches out cash and orders establishes a revenue recognition type in accounting. The churning of orders and deliveries is an interesting study. Airbus has a flat spot so far in 2019, which could significantly change at the next big airshow.
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