Thursday, April 6, 2017

World's Largest Airplane Builder Competition 2017-3 (Updated)

Here begins the unofficial Monthly whose biggest airplane maker for 2017 summary? There are much more details involved than the biggest maker. The backlog is a critical to future production run and Boeing has the early 2017 lead for building its backlog sustaining production and infusing cash. It all starts with the single aisle category where Boeing has made important inroads during the month of March. With 134 net single aisles in March and a total YTD 157 net aircraft for this type pales the Airbus book of only 9 net single aisle orders YTD and having a thin 23 gross single aisle ordered as referencing with Figures 1 and 2. 
Fig. 1

Fig. 2

The delivery arena is here world's largest is tallied and Boeing has the early lead it won't relinquish over-all in units and $$ by year's end. Boeing had a substantial March with 47 deliveries for all single aisle types and its YTD stands at 113 737's of all types. However, Airbus has upped its pace of reporting single aisle units with 47 March single aisles and 107 over-all delivered for 2017.



Big money is found in the wide body arena and orders are important for future production and cash. Boeing has had a tepid 2017 beginning as predicted with 31 net WB orders where the big ticket item from the 747 has 5 cancellations bringing the net YTD orders to 31 WB aircraft. However, Airbus is in no great shape either, as it only has a net -3 WB's as shown in Fig. 6. Much more mystery lies ahead in this category as it will make the difference five years out where Boeing can sustain its WB delivery pace easily until 2020 and after.

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Big bodied production is Boeing's strength at this time. Between the 787 and 777 it rakes its cash basis each month. It is a worrisome segment going forward, but for the time being, it is very stable as a delivery engine. The number of wide bodied Boeing delivered is not quite double of Airbus' 29 WB units. A 56-29 battle year to date gives Boeing the edge which it will never relinquish for the whole of 2017. 

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

The historical picture is showing a down period for Airbus as its over-all backlog in units and value shrinks faster than Boeing's. It is because of Airbus production as its wide body division is not yet up to speed after three years. Airbus has about two more years before production with both of its single aisle and wide bodies will reach a maximum output at which time Boeing must build more single aisle orders in order to stem the Airbus upcoming order and production surge. It is obvious during 2017, Boeing will maintain a level backlog where Airbus' backlog continues to shrink. In 2018 it will be a closer battle for whose is the largest where Boeing should edge out Airbus once again.

Fig. 9