Monday, April 10, 2017

2017 1st Hundred Days Of Airplane Making Performance

It has been a 100 days since the New Year’s Day start, 2017, and the aviation world proclaimed a dim buying outlook going forward. Boeing has become a respectable selling engine while Airbus meets expectation. During any evaluation period, a “meets” rating says it too early to panic and an “exceeds” expectation makes an eagerly looked for outcome.

Raw numbers are the performance indices which guides the evaluation while not looking at rumors or off handed prognostications going forward. It is a performance snapshot with only one main purpose. It tells how the subject has performed and not its potential. Both Boeing and Airbus have different results. Boeing exceeds expectation with its orders and Airbus meets expectation using a pretext of a down order year.

Production is the second category under evaluation where both makers should maintain a steady of improving condition. The category is the internal cog which drives the cash portion on an organization and leads to an improved investor participation. Boeing maintains its productivity activity in a "meets expectation" condition where Airbus has mixed results through its airplane types. As an evaluation claim can be made the Airbus wide body division does not meet expectation where the single aisle division has a tenuous meets expectation status.

The fumbling of the Single Aisle NEO introduction has cast a shadow over the production stream of its narrow body division. Even though Airbus continues to churn out single aisle as expected it has stumbled in the NEO arena, which is not uncommon for a new type progression. Its gear driven PW jet engine is under a separate evaluation and has called in a stall for those types of engines. However, looking at the wide body segment it is important to note, Airbus has delivered about 77 of its A-350-900's during its first 28 months where Boeing delivered 114 of its 787-800 during the same number of its first months.

It is important to note, Boeing shut down deliveries for three months during its battery debacle. Boeing had far more start-up problems and had a far more complex aircraft than Airbus could produce, yet it far exceeded the 77 units from Airbus delivery during the similar 28 month period. Airbus then receives a "Does Not Meet Expectations" for its wide body division since the A-350 fundamentally is not up to speed. If it is to meet expectation it must deliver ten A-350-900's a month for the duration of 2017. It has only delivered 13 A-350-900 during 2017 for a 4.333 rate per month falling well below the Boeing rate at the time in its program. Boeing Produced about ten 787 a month 28 months into its initial production cycle. Currently Boeing meets/exceeds expectation during its production evaluation and Airbus does not meet its own expectations at all.   

The recommendations for either maker goes as follows; Boeing is exceeding expectations during a predicted slow sales year with its robust order book of 198 net orders year to date. Where Airbus has received 37 net orders which falls well below a 600 unit order year pace. However, with nine months to go Airbus can easily catch-up or exceed sales expectation but it finds itself dependent on air showmanship from balloon order announcements. It is recommended Boeing will gain an order advancement over Airbus during 2017.

The second part of this evaluation goes to production and Boeing has a clear lead over Airbus even as it feathers its wide body division back a little while matching a shrinking backlog and infuses new models into its production. The game changer for Boeing is if the 737 Max somehow stumbles on the production line or its entry into service. Both stumbles are unlikely this late into Max program. Airbus still wrestles with parts issues and PW engine issue and won't unleash its production potential until those problems are resolved. Airbus will solve those problems but Boeing will have passed it in a drafting maneuver as if racing at Talladega race way.