Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Boeing Slowly Works Its Order Book

Recently, at the Dubai Airshow, Boeing announced 225 737 Max with flydubai and another 40 787-10's with Emirates. Then there were other orders during the show. However, after the show there were more orders firmed with Avolon leasing for 55 737 Max 8's and 20 Max 10's. The Boeing order book now stands at a gross 787 units ordered and a net total  of  662 units ordered after cancellations and changes are made, Below is a Winging It chart calculating what Boeing has booked in a week by week effort for keeping it accurate. In one instance Winging It plugged some numbers to match what totals Boeing reported even though there was no reference given by Boeing why two NG 737's had to be deducted and 6 737 Max had to be added to equal its total orders. Those mystery changes are missing from Boeing's report on its website but are part of its totals. Therefore there is a plug number on 11-17-2017 for balancing Boeing's own numbers.

Another note or observation, Boeing is capable of booking more than a thousand orders for 2017 exceeding its book to bill ratio goal of 1 by some degree. Having not booked most of the Dubai airshow orders to date, a final number becomes a speculative exercise as 225 Boeing's single aisle and 40 WB remain in a state of limbo until these orders are finalized. 

However, Boeing has made its order point this year, as it has demonstrated it can go toe to toe with Airbus in the single aisle division, and exceed Airbus wide body aspirations by a long mile. Whatever order hold back Airbus has for announcing only until December 31, 2017, it should not even approach what Boeing will announce by year's end.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Dubai Deer Jet Dreamliner Video

Enjoy what private can do for you on a Dreamliner. The only one in the world so enjoy the peeping lens and say you've "been there, seen it, done it!" The Dubai Airshow side-bar.

What Was Learned At Paris Last June Concerning The 797

The year of the 797 is 2018. The 797 honors the laws of physics and is not competing with Airbus with this offering. The 787 may have been announced in 2003 and first delivered in 2011 eight years later, but the smaller 797 or NMA will complete itself within five years instead of eight years suggesting a 2024 entry into service.

A take from the Paris Airshow from "Aviation Week": June 2017

"At the show, Boeing did, however, confirm several new configuration details, including the use of a fifth-generation composite wing, a “hybrid” composite fuselage, next-generation digital architecture and super efficient, very-high-bypass turbofans. A conceptual graphic and side-view profile also showed a 757-size aircraft  clearly displaying a meld of 777 and 787 design features."

Even though considerable  homage was paid to the 757 configuration, going twin aisle makes the 797 go wider than a single aisle and is narrower than a 787 ,as mentioned by several Winging It postings. The reference of a hybrid composite fuselage becomes an enigma for most aviation geeks. It sounds like the body will have design aspects which will lend to using composites in critical areas for strength, especially around window areas and then inserting aluminum alloy panels in non critical strength areas. The imaginary view implies a panel construction similar to the Airbus A-350 presentation but have a "C"shape panels in a critical window area allowing for its width at a mid-body key point.

The "aluminum alloy" panels will shape the remainder of the body. The over-all weight reduction will make this mid model the most efficient it can be when using hybrid design points as well as hybrid parts points for the 797's body outcome. The lifting surfaces should all be composite. An estimated 50% composite body including wings is the "hybrid" outcome.  

Boeing Books Since Paris

Back in June of 2017 Boeing had amassed a lot of paper airplanes. Those are good intentions (LOI) or promised airplanes via MOU's with some contractual commitment, but what about booking those orders? 

How many and how much is it worth coming from a Paris handshake? Winging It kept records from the show and classified those records with the following sub groupings. 

A solid green color indicated a purchase, or a conversion from one previously ordered type into a firm order at the show for another type. A star by customer's name indicates a new firm order converted from the previous Paris airshow MOU/LOI status. A starred name has been converted into a solid green color purchase condition where any remaining MOU's or LOI's remain a light green color on Winging It's main chart and is not pictured above and is not shown with this posting. A purchase-conversion may have been an MOU at the show but it could be a firm order today and is booked by Boeing. 

A previous posting listed the remaining Paris Airshow MOU's and LOI's and briefly discussed what should happen to those MOU's before year's end.

Below is an indication for how busy the Boeing marketing team has been working. Not only finalizing deals from Paris but currently adding flydubai for 225 Max aircraft, Avolon's 75 Max aircraft, and a slug of wide bodied aircraft from various customers totaling about 45 787's and several 777's as an example.

The below Chart list the prior MOU's and LOI's agreed upon during the Paris Airshow 2017 and are now booked as firm orders for Boeing.

Boeing's backlog of MOU's signed since Paris eclipses Boeing's Dubai Show both in units ordered and in value. The two airshows combined value adds significantly more than $150 billion gross to Boeing's book at list price. The Cumulative Paris order Book is charted below from Winging It data. It includes both those orders during the show and those orders firmed after the show from its MOU status*.

The gross list price value exceeds $100 billion from both shows. This is the Paris List Below at $97 Billion The Dubai Airshow was close to $50 billion.

* represents a prior intent/MOU and is now a booked Booked order on Boeing's website.

Monday, November 20, 2017

The Unannounced 797 Announces Its Program Engineer?

Boeing who has fooled no one at this time has moved chief 777X project engineer, Terry Beezhold, over to a new privately run sweat shop with no apparent project on its drawing board. No one saw this coming, least of all Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) who commented...

"Yes, we definitely want to be first in line," said Bjørn Kjos, Norwegian Air Shuttle CEO in Seattle.

The 797 doesn't exist and Boeing isn't going to tell even if does exist. It only moves chess pieces around its massive manufacturing chess board without further adieu. The only mystery remaining is 797 launch customer's and where it will be assembled (built).

It remains for Boeing to whittle down to a one, two, three program process.

  • Launch the 777X
  • Deliver the 737 Max -10
  • and sell about four hundred 797's before the next airshow.

There are many usual suspects vying for the coveted launch customer trophy. Usually this honor goes to a Boeing "favorite" or some customer's massive order announcement. 

The China market is ripe for a 797 and Norwegian Air Shuttle has stuck its foot in Boeing's big factory doors. Boeing analyzes everything, including who will be launch customer and when. Typically a launch announcement will contain a surprise or two. Speculation on who it might be becomes an insane adventure not for those with feint hearts.

"Winging It" is a candidate well suited for speculating because...

  • Insanity is its core value
  • Its heart has no temperature
  • and its pay grade is low enough for the risk.

Boeing would like placing an Airbus insult by having a European launch customer and NAS is ripe for its task of making Airbus stammer without a John Leahy in the room. However, a mega order coming from the far east could be in the works and a launch customer trophy is within China's grasp.

Boeing reports (CNBC): "Boeing has forecast that Chinese airlines will buy 7,240 commercial aircraft worth $1.1 trillion between now and 2036.

Being a 797 launch customer is in a prime position and within China's numerous airline customers.

A 797 launch will include an Asian, American, and European cadre of 797 launch customers. One will be out of a massive order, while another will come to a favorite customer, and finally the last launch customer will come from Europe such as NAS. 

The battle for each region is vicious and it would be difficult to hone in on three top candidates for 797 launch customer trophy. Any Asian favorites emerges from many options. An airline capable of a really big order becomes a complex process in citing a potential launch customer. One could lean towards China Southern or with Lion Air being a possible counter to anything China Southern does. The order number would be a minimum of 100 units.

Image result for china and europe wrestling

An American offer coming from North America or its neighbors to the southern continent are possibilities. A surprise and insane launch customer goes to Delta. United is too booked with single aisle and Delta has big plans for bigger aircraft than its single aisle fleet. The buy-in for any launch customer is 100 units or higher.

The European launch was mention at the top goes to NAS. It too could go all-in with a 100 or more with its European business model. 

The Boeing announcement threshold would be for 400 or more units from about a dozen customers in one show. The follow on orders from other customers could swell the ranks by another 400 during one year's time after announcing the 797 launch. It would take a 800 unit backlog to risk 10-15 billion development dollars.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Remembering Paris 2017

The Paris airshow had so many MOU's 737-10's ordered and now the year is closing to its end. The chart below has been updated as best  as possible from the information provided by Boeing's order book postings. The remaining MOU's should be closed off by year's end and here are a list of Paris orders not yet firmed . There remains about 85 aircraft in MOU status from the Paris Airshow for an estimated list value for about $10 billion US. The key to this is the number and value of aircraft which could be added to Boeing's purchase haul for 2017. Today an order for from Avolon was firmed for 75 Max which numbers 55 Max 8's and 20 Max 10's. The order/MOU originated from the Paris Airshow last June and now $11 billion has been added to Boeing's books which will be recorded at a future date by Boeing.

Remaining MOU's from Paris Airshow 2017

Friday, November 17, 2017

Dubai Summary And Conclusion

The Dubai Airshow is completed for 2017. Numbers and opinions remain in some sort of sandstorm sweeping in after the show, when every maker claims victory per its respective PR department. No one's opinion is valid, this case becomes clear. Over a $ hundred billion of aircraft were sold having a 1990's style annual order book total emerging in just one single show.

Image result for waking in a sand storm

What can be said, Airbus took in more orders in units and value over Boeing. Boeing stole a customer from Airbus for the tune of 15.1 billion dollars. Airbus did not book wide body orders. Boeing stretched its wide body order book out by another 51 units ordered. The Airbus mega order caught everyone's wind from its breath. The single aisle show dominated the attention of cursory watchers.

The real show from all the Airbus showmanship was the Boeing/Emirates deal indicating a change in the region had occured. Even though Airbus caught up its single aisle order book to Boeing's single aisle order book with one customer and one order, Boeing still leads Airbus with its 2017 single aisle sales. It also leads Airbus with duo aisle sales. Many other MOU/LOI's for both makers will have completion before the end of the year. 

Boeing lost a battle in the middle of its own 2017 order surge. Airbus is losing the 2017 order war and is likely the defeated during 2017. An important observation is the momentum going forward into 2018. Boeing has that momentum. One Airbus order and one Airbus customer is not a long term solution for Airbus's order plight. Boeing has laid a strong Middle East connection for its family of Aircraft which Airbus just lost. The flydubai single aisle deal was more important than the Indigo Partner order. Even though the Indigo Partner has multiple customers in its portfolio and risk is spread out among its own customers, there remains a likely hood several or one of its customers will cancel out from it order burden. Not all business models will succeed and not all orders will be completed. The 430 A-320's orders may shrink over time. On the other hand, flydubai has a ripe market and financially sound benefactor supporting its regional plan. It's not saying all 225 orders will be filled but the risk of order reduction is considerably less for flydubai  than Indigo Partner's position.

The main focus of the show is on the Emirates order as it once again rebuffs Airbus when choosing Boeing's offering of 787-10's. Emirates said no to its first order for 70 A-350-900. It would review  the Airbus case extensively before reopening the order conversation with Airbus. It has been many years since that cancellation for 70 and Airbus has much time to address Emirates concerns. With that, Emirate can talk to many Airbus owners over how the A350-900 is working for them. Boeing only had a testing model for the Emirates comparison when proposing its wide body. In the end the 787-10 beat out the A-350-900 the during the second time for the A-350-900. The reason why is multi faceted but the main reason it the 787-10 was built for high density flying going 6-7,000 miles with the cheapest seat mile expense ratio in the market. The A-350-900 was over built for the Emirate mission. It wasn't a hard decision by the UAE but was a respectful decision as it had promised Airbus long ago, a second look which it gave will honestly as a Airbus solution. Boeing won the world wide body market with this order. 

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

"flydubai" Saves Boeing's Day With 225 Max Ordered

The slug fest has started with an Airbus 430 Single Aisle order for 49 Billion at list prices. Boeing counter punches with an order from "flydubai" worth $27 Billion ordering 225 of its Single aisle Max aircraft. A Winging It hint was given last week this would be a single aisle sales event.

Winging It November 12: 

"The show is just starting, it ain't over yet!"

Winging It:

November 7, 2017:   “Dubai and the Tip Of The Wing”


"The show remains a mystery for orders where Boeing should pick up a sampling of wide body orders rather than having a domination of orders coming from one or two customers. The dark horse is the 737 Max family where a surprising number of the single aisle orders could come in as it is overdue for some more Middle Eastern love."

This prediction did not include an Airbus huge announcement by a previous unknown player to this story. More research and development work is needed by this writer. 

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Bloomberg Scoops Dubai With Massive Order News

Airbus is pulling another rabbit out of its hat with a massive single aisle order with Indigo Partners indicating 430 single aisle A-320's. It will be announced in about two hours of this posting.Can't say I saw this coming but it absolutely steals the Dubai show from Boeing if it holds true.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Does The Dubai Forty Mean Something?

Emirates placed an order for 40 787-10's at the Dubai airshow. Another clue came forward recently from a remark about the 787-10's testing suggesting Emirates is fond of its flexibility.

Quote from the Charleston Regional Business Journal:

“Emirates has displayed immense confidence in the South Carolina-built 787-10s and has seen the maturation of the airplane during testing as well,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst with StrategicAero Research, in an email. “Coupled with Boeing’s rate hike to 14 airplanes a month, this is not the only sizeable 787 [order] we’ll see. There are others almost certainly ready to be revealed if they aren’t in the bag already.”

This brief comment suggests Emirates was walking hand in hand with Boeing during early validation tests on the 787-10. One question must of have been answered during the Emirates participation observing 787-10 testing. This model can stand the desert heat and deliver flying efficiency beyond what its competitor can do.

A second clue from the above quote indicates the 787-10's remarkable flexibility for long haul flights not formerly indicated by Boeing's own publications. The 787-10 has outperformed Boeing's own estimations documented before air frame testing was conducted. It is capable of longer distances than first reported. The 787-10 doesn't have to go beyond 7,000 miles, it just has to go where its potential customers travel. The Emirates business philosophy is right sizing capability within a family of aircraft which Airbus lacks. 

There is no A-350-800 it’s a paper airplane. The A-350-900 is a one trick pony and has more capability than needed, so it hauls that unused capability everywhere while only meeting maximum efficiency 10% of the time. The A-350-1000 steadily loses ground or has a stagnate order book since many airlines cannot find a slot within its business footprint. The 777X is a common ally to all of Boeing's other aircraft. The A-350-1000 only has one friend, that in the A-350-900, making it a family of aircraft I guess.

Airbus is losing the WB end of the airplane spectrum rapidly because it cannot connect the dots from single aisle to the A-380. Boeing has completed several important goals where Airbus has failed to do so in response. A short list below describes the Airbus shortfalls causing customers coming back to Boeing in numbers.

·      Incomplete A-350 Family from Top to Bottom.
·      Inability to counter the 777X program
·      Cannot counter Boeing's mid-range high density 787-10 slot with any of its aircraft.
·      Boeing buried its 747 Jumbo, Airbus can't give up the A-380 before its Break-even point. 

The "Dubai forty" 787-10 is a serious red flag for Airbus. Even if Emirates does place an order for another 30 A-380’s it will have a hard time staying with the A-380 as competitors continue with the Boeing family of aircraft. It will become a one-off super Jumbo carrier. The other airlines will nip its heals around the jumbo fleet. 

However, Emirates realize its ill-fated tacking move with the A-380 and it made a new tack in 2013 by ordering 150 of Boeing’s 777-X’s. Coincidentally, 150 units is a similar to its 142 A-350 orders it has on the Airbus order book. The 787-10 fills an important slot along with the 777X that will in time replace all it’s a-380’s. The total wide body book for Boeing’s "new wide body" stands at 190 not counting the 777-300-ER backlog.

Emirates has to replace its older 777’s in the next ten years. A problem posed with Boeing’s marketing team. Some of the long range Boeing commitment to its customers has been made with this Dubai 40 order. Emirates will need more aircraft in its fleet to replace both the A-380 and its older 777’s. Another airshow another day is the answer for this dilemma. Emirates will need another 100 wide body order in five years. Probably a 50-50 split with the 777X and the 787 family. It just has to wait to see if the 787-10 and 777X works as advertised during testing. It appears the 787-10 has accomplished its goals.