Two Things A Bird Needs, The Right Wing and The Right Power

Boeing controls its wings and has unveiled a recent sketch of its Transonic design which will take the commercial jet farther, faster and higher. World hopping will become the new normal in the next decade of airplane development. Boeing will be forced to do something in order to make Airbus a second rate builder of aircraft.



Transonic: Boeing's futuristic 'truss-brace' design was developed with Nasa. Photo / Supplied 

Birds are the next step in Boeing's progress. Boeing controls its own wing making and has unveiled a recent sketch of its Transonic design which will take the commercial jet farther, faster and higher. Once again, "World hopping" will become the new normal in the next decade of airplane development. Boeing will be forced to do something in order to make Airbus a second rate builder of aircraft.



Transonic: Boeing's futuristic 'truss-brace' design was developed with Nasa. Photo / Supplied 

Next focus, the Albatross, the peregrine and the Humming Bird are what nature provides for Higher, faster with power from its respective wings and metabolisms. The hummingbird beats its wings at an alarming 2,025 beats per second and burns its energy accordingly thus needing plentiful flower nectar every so often in order to survive. 

The Albatross just glides for thousands of miles across vast distances without even a wing beat, The Peregrine Falcon dives at 250 mph just using gravity and its aerodynamics for the dive. It goes faster than a skydiver 10 seconds after jumping from the airplane. Boeing will use the hummingbird beat in its new engines as the turbine blades rotating exceedingly fast and then use the Falcons aerodynamics to make the speed seem natural. 

NASA has been working with Boeing to achieve a concept as pictured above.

HowStuffWorks Credit  Albatross

Humming Bird Making 2,025 Stokes A Second 

Peregrine Falcon Poised to Dive

Aerodynamic Transonic Bird

Boeing 2018 Biggest Airbus 2018 Player

Airbus loves to play Boeing as it dumped 435 orders on its book in the month of December 2018 alone. Even though it fell short of Boeing by 146 orders for 2018, Boeing did nudge Airbus for world's largest aircraft builder by 806-800 units. That too is a surprising number for Airbus as it gained more ground on Boeing production. Surprise, as Airbus plays Boeing in its end of year count.

The Embaer-Boeing Deal Is Waiting Government Approval

Boeing on paper has an 80% share on Embraer commercial airplane business. The government is being wary thinking Boeing could end up with 100% of that deal. Brazil wants to maintain a partnership. Boeing could assimilate Embraer's product with a total Boeing small body using the merge of engineers from Embraer's own on the Boeing payroll. It's a tenuous position for Brazil as there are many workarounds that could lead to a complete Boeing ownership.

Brazil wants a dog in this fight going into perpetuity. Boeing needs to somehow guarantee Embraer/Brazil has a permanent 20% position no matter what Boeing does with its further development of smaller-bodied aircraft coming North to Boeing investors. Embraer does want to keep a 20% share of all things Boeing in the commercial arena. I tend to agree on the surface with Brazil's position but the government needs to step back and not make this current paper agreement void. Boeing must be able to show Brazil's future with this agreement no matter what Boeing does with this segment of Aircraft. It would benefit both the people of Brazil and Boeing that it confirms Embraer product is only an extension of both makers with a commonality interface.

Boeing needs to meet Brazil halfway with this newly acquired smaller body market segment. This would address Boeing's concerns as well as Brazil's political concerns. The deal should be finalized with the support of the nation's people beyond the private enterprise phase it had just entered. Taking Brazil's government to a sidebar would be valuable to both investment groups from Embraer and Boeing. In Brazil, private enterprise must flourish for the benefit of its people and Boeing needs to make that case and give Brazil its guarantee in behalf of Embraer when benefitting Boeing from Embraer's hard-earned aviation progress.

Boeing Has Its 893 2018 Orders

Boeing Booked 893 airplanes, meeting a moderately high Market objective during a year with Asian implication stalling the industry's order flow.

Below is the Airbus Target but further analysis will compare a type by type comparison when final Airbus numbers are reported by Airbus adjusting to the Boeing order report.

Boeing did confirm a total of 893 net units where Airbus reported by end of November 2018 only 380 ordered. It will need an additional 513 orders booked in December in "order" to catch Boeing. That goal is probably unachievable for Airbus unless it has been holding many (year's worth) of orders until year's end, as is it may be tempted to do with a show of order force if it could?

By the way, Boeing delivered a record 806 units which will make it the world's largest Airplane builder once again. Its almost a 1 to 1 book/bill ratio for 2018.

893/806= 1.108 BB Ratio is outstanding and the desired target.

The Airline Industry Pauses For The 777X

Since 2004 Boeing has with its 777

• 796 Delivered
• 38 Backloggedged

It also has 326 orders for the 777X

• 53, 777-8X
• 273, 777-9X

This does not include any LOI's or optioned 777X orders on the intent book.

Randy Tinseth, Boeing VP Marketing has observed, “It’s the airplane that will replace the 747-400, ultimately the 747-8, and it is going to replace the A380,” telling reporters on the sidelines of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines assembly of presidents in Jeju, South Korea on October 19, 2018.

He also commented, “The 777-8 is really about the replacement for the 777-300ER, and we’re not going to see that replacement cycle for that aircraft until we get into the next decade.”

All-in-all, Boeing is timing the market for its 777X and not imposing a whole new type of technology into the marketplace like it did with the 787 families of aircraft. Boeing most definitely is trying for another strategy during the 777X program, by using already paid for and proven technology coming from both the Max and Dreamliner programs. In fact, Boeing is trying to reduce its deferred balance when using 787 costed technology on the ongoing 777X program. The balance acquired when funding a developmental moonshot for its 787 programs was for its whole family of aircraft from the 737 to the unannounced 797. Boeing intends to pare down those deferred costs labeled 787 when it feeds the Max and 777X with proven aviation advancements from those programs. The commonality factor is helping pay for carbon wings and avionics suites Boeing now uses on its products that came from the 787 programs during the years 2006-2012. It is also is developing new technology from each aircraft type made which could be retrofitted onto its other family of aircraft in development or use.

The pause comes for the 777-8x as it only had about 53 orders. Once the airplane concept performs in tests, Boeing sees its established 777 clients pushing 777-8X orders forward in 2022. The market will heat up for that type as many Boeing customers own 777-200ER and 777-300's. They could trade a 20 years old 777 classic in for a 777-8X starting by 2022. When first 777-9X delivery is made in 2020 an airshow will be the event and with would come more 777X orders. It sounds like the London Airshow will make some 777X excitement during that event in 2020.

As remaining 777 backlog remains but is wrapping up as the 777X starts its production run the transition from 777 to 777X is right on time when considering five years ago how Boeing will fill the order book they have just done that. The program capacity will be placed for timely orders going forward as this WB tests out over the next 18 months.

Hub and Spoke vs Free Market

The old hub and spoke model used to dominate the landscape. Briefly, the theory is to bring 1,000's of passengers to a huge hub like LAX and then redistribute its customers on an appropriately sized aircraft to a second location found on a passengers' itinerary. 

LAX Hub And Spoke Commercial Aviation Model


The direct flight model eliminates the hub found in New York, London, or Frankfurt. It can fly from a "second-tier airport "Oslo Norway to Hawaii if a market need is determined. Thus the freedom of destination is not confined to a hub. Airbus was left with only one competitive thought, bigger is better. Boeing went with the better is a better model and it sold almost 1,500 787's by 2019 when counting reliable commitments in the order pit.

It's a two to one market impact over Airbus. The hub is not a panacea for airline travel as the Euro maker was left to hope for, it is better is better open free market only using a hub when efficient, or just flying directly when the market allowed. The Boeing gamble paid off as there was a vast flight market segment untapped until the 787 moved in during 2012. 

Seven years later, the paradigm has shifted away from the A380 and B747's into direct flying into the Caribbean from anywhere. The Carribean was a place the A380 was not allowed due to its immense size. Smaller countries and smaller airlines now have a dog in the fight after buying the 787's in numbers, and it did just that, a new free market emerged without flying indirectly through a conforming hub.

The market saw this opportunity of going anywhere directly rather than having passengers sit for hours in a super hub waiting for a cramped single-aisle flight. 

However, single-aisle have a place as well and it is the main profit maker in the airplane manufacturing business. The market freedom concept has space remaining for new concepts unless counting the emergence of the 797 closes that "gap". 

Hub marketing has a place and is not the total answer. Airbus did not look at the air travel market wisely, it just wanted its pride to reflect what it could build and the A380 is dying an inglorious death. Even though the 1,500 747 production models earned a wonderful title, "Queen of the sky's", the A380 may earn the inglorious "Elefante Blanco" title.

The A-350 is just not good enough and too big for airline sensibility for the passenger buck even though passengers may enjoy the extra 5 inches spread across nine seats and two aisles. Giving the 1/2 inch advantage per item if ever utilized. The 777X is a culmination of this airplane story as it will outdo the A-350 1000, effectively, and put reasoning in boardrooms at a premium.

United Airlines Lines Up Its 787

United's own market strategy shows on its sleeve at a Texas BBQ. The airline bottom line is a 787 fleet. The metaphor spells Boeing equipment. Other airlines may seek a market strategy with a style and substance of mixed fleets. Delta is a good comparison with United Airlines as it uses multiples of Airbus product along with some Boeing sprinkled in. Delta seems to play the market and United seeks a Blue chip investing with Boeing as shown below.

Left to Right United's 787-10, 787-9 and 787-8. Photo Credit: United Airlines

The Boeing approximately recapped*

Airbus Product    170
Boeing Product   600
787 grouping       40
Fleet size           771

Important Boeing consideration is the preponderance of 737 and Boeing widebody in its fleet. Renewal skews towards Boeing product.

Delta:
Airbus Product:  241
Boeing Product: 514
A350 grouping:   11
(other MD)        123
Fleet Size:         878

An important consideration, Delta is in a flexible situation for either Airbus or Boeing fleet renewal it is rumored that Delta would like to be the 797 Launch customer. A truly plausible assumption at this point.

*planespotter data

B-21 Raider, Until The Year 2100

No, It's not 9:00 PM or 2100 hours but the year 2100. The B-21 Raider will fly for the next seventy-five years until the year 2100. Calculating the B-21 will enter its service in the year 2025 makes for a neat estimation of 75 years since the B-52 is counted on for 80 years of service. So the B-21 could be for 75 years of service. Sounds reasonable.

B-21 Raider  front and center as imagined

The B-21 objective currently stands at a 100 unit USAF proposal. If costs are contained and an open architecture remains, then more might be built during the next 30 years. It could amount to 200 units produced by the year 2080 for the Air Force. That's how many it will need replacing its remaining B-52, B1, and B-2 bombers. Of course, the B-21 itself will need replacing from its early flying copies as technology and weapons evolve. The B-21 must learn to live in its initial skin having an ability to insert upgrades and functionality.  The Raider has to become the "new" B-52 without having following on Bomber proposals very 10 years. Doing a Bomber proposal every10 years will "break the US Bank". The Air Force must adapt to one bomber concept and not keep rolling out another we should have done this prototype every so often. It must work within its own skin as well!

The B-21 bomber is perceived as that one bomber and it will not be replaced by at least fifty years unless it morphs with technological progressions. It will reach 200 units built in the long run. 

Open Those Doors will Move That Bus

Ty Pennington used to scream "move that bus", thus revealing the "Extreme  Home Makeover". Now Boeing is about to move that Airbus out of the widebody centerpiece with its own 777X makeover of a 777300ER. The first one that will fly, now has "its GE9X engines hung with care". Good old Saint Nick will approve of that comment. "Dash away, dash away, dash away all!" The 777-8X and 777-9X will begin its dash starting in a few months and well before Christmas 2019. Like going "crazy" is so hard to do when a Boeing is on the flight line. Neil Sedaka props below when breaking up the definitions. Like this is a monumental event when waiting so long. 

This could be called Metaphor Monday or Semile Sunday depending on what day of the week works for you.  Number 1 is the metaphor on Sunday which emblematically uses one thing which strangely represents another thing. Number 2 Monday compares one thing to, "well like", another thing. Above it is your job to find the metaphor and then find the word like as all good teenagers insist on using the word "like" when taking a breath mid-sentence. Is the word "insanity" like the word "normal" only different? Is this just metaphorically speaking?

Move that bus(metaphor) and open those doors(metaphor) like (simile) you mean it. 

777X Showtime Nears

It has been reported by several news outlets the engines have been hung on the 777X like on a Christmas tree in the Everet, Wa. factory.



Dominic Gates says so, so it must be true.

First Flight will light my fire.